Markets still falling like whoa

[tbone_ 14020]

Also, jPow says commercial real estate doesn't affect the TBTF banks, so that industry can be a sacrificial lamb to the inflation targeting altar.

Thanks a lot dickhead.

[Wally Fairway 5517]

whoa - S&P is up about 450 (11%  YTD,  600/15% 12 months) and down about 300 off the mid- summer high
psycho split personality market is a crazy bitch

[bernorange 8346]

2 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Thanks a lot dickhead.

 

Don't shoot the messenger!  

Spoiler

J/k

 

[UTGrad98 2257]

S&P 500 closed below its 200 day moving average today.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-10-20-2023/card/s-p-500-closes-below-200-day-moving-average-uiuwICarQNppSQ1whLOn?mod=finance_lcmarkets_pos1

From Google bard FWIW

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has closed below its 200-day moving average 38 times. Of those 38 times, 31 have resulted in a bear market, which is about 80% of the time.

Edited October 20, 2023 by UTGrad98
none

[Storm the Field 5270]

On 10/17/2023 at 3:32 PM, Storm the Field said:

 

Official release this morning was 4.9%. JPM was pretty close with their final prediction of 4.7% yesterday. 

Markets unhappy of course.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Storm the Field

[bernorange 8346]

27 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

... Markets unhappy of course.

GDP and durable goods numbers surprised to the upside.  Markets understand this as "higher for longer" = potentially even higher and most likely much longer

[bernorange 8346]

Doom on the horizon?

Quote

... Michael Gayed, a portfolio manager at Tidal Financial who offers trading strategies via the Lead Lag Report, and Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management. They posted a discussion on Wednesday that spoke of an “imminent market crash.”

“What we’re seeing in Treasurys should make a lot of people nervous. I’ve never seen anything like it, and I’ve been following this market since the mid-90s,” said Kramer, who recently discussed how the new bull market was already over.
...
He said the surge in Treasury yields may be “near the end,” but there may be a bit to go. Kramer also told subscribers on Wednesday that the S&P 500 decline “doesn’t look complete yet,” and 4,115 can’t be ruled out.

One chart Kramer has been focused on for a while is shown here, and in follow-up comments he tells MarketWatch that he suspects, as he has for a while, that the S&P 500 has been in the grips of a long bear market rally, rather than the start of a new bull market:
...
So after the crash in Treasurys, Gayed is on guard for Part 2, when “credit spreads blow out and stocks collapse.” Note, that widening credit spreads indicate looming defaults.

“If I’m right, the mother of all short squeezes is still set to come in Treasurys, and people suddenly realize too late they were tricked into a narrative around AI and a ‘bull market’ that in reality made them exit liquidity,” he wrote on Seeking Alpha.
...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-two-commentators-who-have-been-warning-of-a-market-crash-say-its-now-here-83fe2ee4?rss=1&siteid=rss

[Sgt Hulk 13637]

Man it has been a brutal few years. Intend to not log into my TSP much. But damn it hurts 

[52-80 19066]

Lol Michael Gayed is another one of those very internet-prominent hot take artist who shotgun shit at the wall until something sticks. Look at enough of his posts and you’ll find a million predictions that went wrong. 

[Blotto 23418]

I'm not making a move until Cathie Wood speaks, and then I'm doing the opposite. 

[Incredulity 11532]

19 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I'm not making a move until Cathie Wood speaks, and then I'm doing the opposite. 

[Storm the Field 5270]

FIrst Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 is 2.7%.

Goldman's initial estimate is 1.6%.

For Q3, GDPNow started off at 3.5% and eventually settled at 5.4%, while JPM, Goldman, etc.. were all initially ~0.5%. They slowly converged upwards towards GDPNow over the ensuing months.

 

[Storm the Field 5270]

On 10/26/2023 at 10:09 AM, bernorange said:

Doom on the horizon?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-two-commentators-who-have-been-warning-of-a-market-crash-say-its-now-here-83fe2ee4?rss=1&siteid=rss

I'm on Marketwatch every day, solely b/c I find their stock and commodities tickers user friendly. The articles on the site itself are 90% clickbait trash. 

Every single day:

"Why this hedge fund titan predicts a coming Ice Age for stocks"

"He made a fortune during the 2008 crash, why he's now saying to prepare for financial Armageddon"

They even have a daily "Am I the asshole?" type column where people ask shit like "I'm about to inherit $5M from my father. My lazy POS brother doesn't get anything. He thinks I should pay for the funeral costs. I think we should split 50/50. Is that fair?"

[Incredulity 11532]

Looked at my Schwab account 

[Mother mopar 3291]

Man it has been a brutal few years. Intend to not log into my TSP much. But damn it hurts 

Rode my TSP out during the 08-11 crash and it sucked but the rebound stock sex was damn good. Pulled mine out in 21,' when I retired; when there's blood in the street buy more, even if it's your blood. It will pay off in the end.

[bernorange 8346]

Someone got desperate for gold near the end of the trading day.

[StassneyHorn 6534]

6 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

They even have a daily "Am I the asshole?" type column where people ask shit like "I'm about to inherit $5M from my father. My lazy POS brother doesn't get anything. He thinks I should pay for the funeral costs. I think we should split 50/50. Is that fair?"

The amount of rage and laughter I get reading those have me hooked.

[52-80 19066]

16 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Looked at my Schwab account 

If you dont see it its not real

[Incredulity 11532]

41 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

If you dont see it its not real

Schrodinger’s portfolio 

[Wally Fairway 5517]

So I see all the investing sites have articles taken off from Druckenmiller's comment about Yellen not borrowing more when interrest rates were low; but I thought the debt celiling limited the amount of Treasuries that the US could issue. Am I missing something - the Fed can kinda do as they think is best, but Treasury is limited by Congress.
I'm not saying we (the US Gov't) shouldn't have loaded up on selling Treasuries when they were near zero, but wouldn't Congress have to approve this plan. 

[tbone_ 14020]

Whole lotta after the fact piling on on this issue and haven’t seen anyone bring that up

[Viking 299]

He means instead of issuing 1-2 year treasuries in 2020-2021 to fund the deficit they should have been 10-30 year treasuries. Those 1-2yr treasuries that paid .2% interest are being redeemed and replaced with bonds that pay 5% greatly increasing our interest payments. I had the same thought at the time and wondered if there would have been a market for a 50 or 100 year bond.

[bernorange 8346]

43 minutes ago, Viking said:

... I had the same thought at the time and wondered if there would have been a market for a 50 or 100 year bond.

I posted this in the Inflation thread ... it addresses that point directly (from 2020):

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/498902-now-is-the-time-for-treasury-to-issue-ultra-long-bonds/

[hornmpa96 2598]

6 hours ago, Viking said:

He means instead of issuing 1-2 year treasuries in 2020-2021 to fund the deficit they should have been 10-30 year treasuries. Those 1-2yr treasuries that paid .2% interest are being redeemed and replaced with bonds that pay 5% greatly increasing our interest payments. I had the same thought at the time and wondered if there would have been a market for a 50 or 100 year bond.

This was discussed under Mnuchin as well but the concern has always been is there enough demand for those long-dated bonds. If the demand was there, they definitely should have loaded up on the long end of the curve.

[B00M 6278]

5 hours ago, hornmpa96 said:

This was discussed under Mnuchin as well but the concern has always been is there enough demand for those long-dated bonds. If the demand was there, they definitely should have loaded up on the long end of the curve.

Anyone holding those would be sitting on absurd unrealized losses. Any bank holding much of those would have been run on. The only entity that could have done that would have been the fed and I’m sure that bullshit will happen soon enough

[52-80 19066]

14 hours ago, Viking said:

He means instead of issuing 1-2 year treasuries in 2020-2021 to fund the deficit they should have been 10-30 year treasuries. Those 1-2yr treasuries that paid .2% interest are being redeemed and replaced with bonds that pay 5% greatly increasing our interest payments. I had the same thought at the time and wondered if there would have been a market for a 50 or 100 year bond.

These investors got finessed

https://www.oebfa.at/en/presse/presseuebersicht/2020/anleihe-neubegebung-100.html

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-AT100Y/

[Storm the Field 5270]

My sophisticated analysis of market trajectory over the past 2 weeks:

 

[Guest]

Up 6% in a week. Should be up by about 50% come the end of the year then.

[Incredulity 11532]

19 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Up 6% in a week. Should be up by about 50% come the end of the year then.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Can't argue with math.

[Guest]

[Wally Fairway 5517]

Run Warren Run

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/04/berkshire-hathaway-brk-earnings-q3-2023.html

Only have $157B in cash, operating earnings up 40%, but lost $20+B on investments

I have no idea if that is good or not, and if that pushes BRK.A/B up or down

[B00M 6278]

6 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Run Warren Run

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/04/berkshire-hathaway-brk-earnings-q3-2023.html

Only have $157B in cash, operating earnings up 40%, but lost $20+B on investments

I have no idea if that is good or not, and if that pushes BRK.A/B up or down

$150B cash earning 5% for a quarter nets a cool $1.88B … this mother fucker ready to buy errbody when these interest rates finally bring a financial crisis induced recession 

[Wally Fairway 5517]

27 minutes ago, B00M said:

$150B cash earning 5% for a quarter nets a cool $1.88B … this mother fucker ready to buy errbody when these interest rates finally bring a financial crisis induced recession 

I hope so, I started buying years ago and don't plan on stopping. I'll buy the dip when he and) or Uncle Charlie die.

My only regret is not starting decades ago (then again Schwab's algo rates it a C)

[Wally Fairway 5517]

I guess we all knew where this would lead - primarily because it's me

[Wally Fairway 5517]

Dear Mr Powell,

On behalf of myself, and everyone, and the entire market. Can you please STFU about what the FED may or may not do in the future.
If you are not up on your colloquialism and abbreviations, STFU means to shut your fucking whore mouth when you are talking about how you feel.

Regards
Wally Fairway & his diminishing investment accounts

PS maybe a gif will help you understand

[Storm the Field 5270]

CPI came in softer than expected. 0.0% MOM, 3.2% YOY. 

10-year yield down to 4.46%

All 3 major stock indices are up big, nearing 2-month highs.

DJIA +435, approaching 35K again.

S&P +70, just shy of 4500

Nasdaq +280, back over 14K

 

[Wally Fairway 5517]

49 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

CPI came in softer than expected. 0.0% MOM, 3.2% YOY. 

10-year yield down to 4.46%

All 3 major stock indices are up big, nearing 2-month highs.

DJIA +435, approaching 35K again.

S&P +70, just shy of 4500

Nasdaq +280, back over 14K

Wait I don't understand, are not these the numbers that have pushed the Fed to increase rates and therefore over the last 18 months these results have cause the market to react by selling? I guess market movers must now think the Fed will hit the pause button (which would be nice)

[Guest]

On 11/3/2023 at 9:52 AM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Up 6% in a week. Should be up by about 50% come the end of the year then.

 

On 11/3/2023 at 10:13 AM, Incredulity said:

 

On 11/3/2023 at 10:20 AM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Can't argue with math.

On track so far.

[Incredulity 11532]

17 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

 

 

On track so far.

Please advise on where to send $9.95

[hornbri 1367]

To the moon

[StassneyHorn 6534]

Michael Burry ditched his S&P shorts and went to semiconductors

Edited November 15, 2023 by StassneyHorn

[CooterBrown 17875]

On 11/14/2023 at 9:05 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Michael Burry ditched his S&P shorts and went to semiconductors

To be fair, he only lost 40% on that bet.

 

[Incredulity 11532]

10 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

To be fair, he only lost 40% on that bet.

 

obligatory

[Blotto 23418]

On 11/17/2023 at 10:16 AM, CooterBrown said:

To be fair, he only lost 40% on that bet.

 

Thats speculation. He reports positions at the end of each quarter, but not specifically when he bought or sold during those quarters. If you don't know when he entered or exited his positions, or what the associated options premiums were when he made those trades, how can you estimate profit/loss?  My guess is he lost some money but not 40%. And he could have made money. 

 

[Wally Fairway 5517]

Heads up to those who use the Reverse Wally market indicator - I have sold my itm BRK.B 1/19/24 calls and taken those funds to reinvest in 6/21/24 and 1/17/25 $400 calls.

This is almost certain to cause a near term drop in the price of  Warren & Charlie's playhouse.

[bernorange 8346]

Quote

...
One particularly frustrating aspect of 2023 for investors has been waiting for a recession that never came, as many Wall Street banks also bet on that happening. BCA Research, who provides our call of the day also expected a pullback, and say that is now inevitable for 2024, possibly crushing stocks by 27% from current levels.

“We do not expect any further rate hikes in the U.S. over the coming year unless inflation significantly picks up. However, investors are pricing in too much easing before a recession arrives, and too little once it does,” BCA strategists warned in their outlook that published on Monday.

And stocks are “likely to decline significantly in response to a recession,” leaving the S&P 500 trading between 3,300 and 3,700 next year, they say. ...

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/why-the-s-p-500-may-sink-as-low-as-3100-next-year-warn-these-bearish-strategists/ar-AA1kEUbz

Direct link to BCA Research report:

https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/view_report/39234/bca

 

[bernorange 8346]

Flip side:

Quote

Deutsche Bank appears to be sitting at the top of Wall Street’s 2024 forecasts for the S&P 500, with a call for the index to reach 5,100 that its strategists say may turn out to be conservative.
...
RBC and Bank of America each have 5,000 targets, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are below that level; not every bank has so far published its target.
...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/deutsche-bank-makes-the-highest-s-p-500-forecast-on-wall-street-and-says-that-may-be-too-conservative/ar-AA1kBmr4

[Wally Fairway 5517]

3 hours ago, bernorange said:

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/why-the-s-p-500-may-sink-as-low-as-3100-next-year-warn-these-bearish-strategists/ar-AA1kEUbz

Direct link to BCA Research report:

https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/view_report/39234/bca

 

 

54 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Flip side:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/deutsche-bank-makes-the-highest-s-p-500-forecast-on-wall-street-and-says-that-may-be-too-conservative/ar-AA1kBmr4

Thanks - before this I was very indecisive, now I am just undecided about where the market is headed.

[bernorange 8346]

I mean, if you want throw darts and hit bullseyes, just make the bullseyes as big as a barn and have at.  Some days back, I saw a report where some brainiac exclamed with complete seriousness a market prediction for Solana (SOL) (a crypto) targeting anwhere from $9 to $3,000.  Really cleared that one up.