Markets still falling like whoa

[Guest]

Me a week ago: "You know, I put a bit too much into cash investments to grab a decent yield for once. I should move that over but will wait for a pullback."

Me today: "Derp."

[Guest]

 

[CooterBrown 18,288]

42 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I'm certainly glad I shifted my 401k allocation and contributions to 50% S&P500 and 50% Russell 2k about 3 months back.  

I went all in on the S&P 500 around the same time.  

[52-80 19,377]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Me a week ago: "You know, I put a bit too much into cash investments to grab a decent yield for once. I should move that over but will wait for a pullback."

Me today: "Derp."

Live by fixed income, die by fixed income. 
 

That said, if you were long treasury bonds, its been kicking ass too 

[Guest]

Lulz. Nope. Just 5.5% CDs.

Don't get me wrong, good exposure to stocks but way less than I should have at my age. But I also like to sleep well at night.

[Guest]

That's definitely a hell of a monthly chart:

[Trey3216 15,452]

2 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

That's definitely a hell of a monthly chart:

Ahem…1 month chart…ahem 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,729]

Humble brag. Nice to see that my total of all accounts, especially retirement are at all time highs today.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

if the fed was interested in making friends, it would wait until the new year, let people get their bonuses and put them in the market, then make announcements that would have everything jump.

[Sam Lin 3,597]

Or if it is interested in taking some money out of circulation, wait until people put more money in the market, and then tank the market next spring...

[bernorange 8,385]

Fed plans to continue shrinking it's balance sheet (QT) even while cutting rates:

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/13/what-powell-said-about-continuing-qt-amid-rate-cuts-rrps-going-to-zero-and-reserves-dropping-to-a-magic-line-in-the-sand/

Sounds like they can only shrink so far though. 

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

41 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Fed plans to continue shrinking it's balance sheet (QT) even while cutting rates:

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/13/what-powell-said-about-continuing-qt-amid-rate-cuts-rrps-going-to-zero-and-reserves-dropping-to-a-magic-line-in-the-sand/

Sounds like they can only shrink so far though. 

We will see how well that can work, when the Treasury has to issue into a market where China isn't a buyer, US individuals don't want lower rate notes, banks don't like them, and the Fed is the last buyer standing

[Trey3216 15,452]

2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

We will see how well that can work, when the Treasury has to issue into a market where China isn't a buyer, US individuals don't want lower rate notes, banks don't like them, and the Fed is the last buyer standing

They're going to make some longer bonds.  

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

just another day in the market, or is it?

Quote

Options contracts tied to more than $5 trillion worth of stocks, exchange-traded funds and indexes are set to expire on Friday as the latest “triple witching” expiration event collides with the rebalancing of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100.

The result could be a high-octane, and potentially extremely volatile, session where tens of billions of contracts and shares could change hands, market strategists said.

or S&P 500-linked options, typically the most popular product, 4.8 million contracts changed hands on Thursday, according to Cboe, a new record, surpassing the previous record from Nov. 14.

Also, total call-trading volume for all U.S. equity options exceeded 30 million contracts on Wednesday, according to Goldman Sachs Group, making it one of the busiest days for trading in bullish contracts this year.

 

Aggressive call-buying over the past month has helped push the S&P 500 to just shy of its record closing high, options-market experts said. The S&P 500 gained 8.9% in November, its best month of 2023, and the 18th best-performing month of the past 73 years. And it has continued to climb in December, having risen 3.3% through Thursday’s close, according to FactSet data.

Earlier this week, options strategists warned that markets might run into trouble at 4,600 on the S&P 500. They warned that a “call wall” of open-interest in bullish contracts around that level could force market makers to put the brakes on the rally.

To be sure, it isn’t just S&P 500 options and contracts tied to popular stocks like Tesla Inc. seeing explosive volume: Calls tied to the iShares Russell 2000 ETF which tracks the small-cap Russell 2000, hit 1.35 million contracts, the third-highest ever, according to Goldman. Activity in options contracts linked to small-cap stock indexes has surged since late October.

Heavy call buying has pushed the put-call skew for S&P 500 options to its lowest level in a year, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group.

Making things even more interesting is the fact that the quarterly rebalancing of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 is due to take effect after markets close on Friday.

Normally routine, this quarter’s rebalancing is drawing outsize attention following an extremely rare ad hoc rebalancing over the summer to rein in the influence of megacap stocks in the Nasdaq-100.

Earlier this month, Standard & Poor’s announced its rebalancing plans, which included reducing the weighting of two Magnificent Seven stocks, Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc. At the same time, Amazon.com Inc. which is also part of the Mag 7, will see its weighting increased. Meanwhile, three companies will join the index, including Uber Inc. while shares of three other companies depart.

 

Kochuba believes Friday’s expiration could remove the last barrier holding stocks back from rocketing to record highs before the end of the year.

tl:dr - 🚀

[Parliament 14,593]

So should I be long or short?

[Trey3216 15,452]

Just now, Parliament said:

So should I be long or short?

yes

[ajax 2,675]

I got out of my leveraged index fund in mid July and I felt pretty good about myself and it tumbled down. Now it's rebounded like a rocket and well past my sell price. I don't know what to think.

[bernorange 8,385]

NY Fed's John Williams appeared on CNBC and said the Fed is not looking at rate cuts any time soon and it's too soon to be talking about it.  Markets reacted to "JPow pivot" being undone.

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

So should I be long or short?

 

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

yes

[Captainant 28,530]

1 hour ago, ajax said:

I don't know what to think.

"Losses aren't real until I sell"

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

So should I be long or short?

both.

[McFly 606]

Just go mullet. Short in the front long in the back. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,729]

S&P 500 index just a hair under the all time high. didn't see December practically duplicating Nov.

[Guest]

On 11/3/2023 at 9:52 AM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Up 6% in a week. Should be up by about 50% come the end of the year then.

 

51 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

S&P 500 index just a hair under the all time high. didn't see December practically duplicating Nov.

Since I made that post about the market being up 6% in a week, it's up nearly another 9%. 

Nice. 

I have stopped buying for a bit. Letting this thing cool off and come down to earth a few points before adding more.

Edited December 18, 2023 by FirstTimeCaller

[bernorange 8,385]

FWIW, Fed members are trying to walk back JPows comments and temper markets.  If that doesn't work, expect more hawkish rhetoric to follow.

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/18/fed-members-fan-out-to-step-out-raging-rate-cut-fires/

[Parliament 14,593]

1 hour ago, bernorange said:

FWIW, Fed members are trying to walk back JPows comments and temper markets.  If that doesn't work, expect more hawkish rhetoric to follow.

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/18/fed-members-fan-out-to-step-out-raging-rate-cut-fires/

Too late.

 

 

[52-80 19,377]

On 12/18/2023 at 8:41 PM, FirstTimeCaller said:

 

Since I made that post about the market being up 6% in a week, it's up nearly another 9%. 

Nice. 

I have stopped buying for a bit. Letting this thing cool off and come down to earth a few points before adding more.

 

[Storm the Field 5,366]

WTF happened at 2pm this afternoon? All 3 indices and oil were up slightly through lunchtime and then fell off a fucking cliff.

Everybody took the afternoon off to go blow some of their gains on last minute Xmas gift splurges?

[Dbeasy 15,592]

10 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

WTF happened at 2pm this afternoon? All 3 indices and oil were up slightly through lunchtime and then fell off a fucking cliff.

Everybody took the afternoon off to go blow some of their gains on last minute Xmas gift splurges?

Tax selling

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Tax selling

we don't have to worry about that, no gain, no pain AND no taxes

 

[Mo Horn 8,937]

1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

WTF happened at 2pm this afternoon? All 3 indices and oil were up slightly through lunchtime and then fell off a fucking cliff.

Everybody took the afternoon off to go blow some of their gains on last minute Xmas gift splurges?

Decided to cash in on all the gains over the last few weeks. Been expecting the correction. 

[Neonmoon 38,130]

3 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

WTF happened at 2pm this afternoon? All 3 indices and oil were up slightly through lunchtime and then fell off a fucking cliff.

Everybody took the afternoon off to go blow some of their gains on last minute Xmas gift splurges?

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

pre-open market says 

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

pre-open market says 

Lol. Bull market gonna bull market.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,729]

So we're back to Monday's prices. Quick recovery.

My guess is that many people took profits yesterday afternoon, and after sleeping on it, they wanted back in today.

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

On 12/21/2023 at 9:06 AM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Lol. Bull market gonna bull market.

 

On 12/21/2023 at 10:25 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

So we're back to Monday's prices. Quick recovery.

My guess is that many people took profits yesterday afternoon, and after sleeping on it, they wanted back in today.

All I know is that the more I read and hear about how bad 2024 will be, all as the market continues to move back towards all time highs .... well it makes me feel okay about staying invested. Because it shows they are guessing just like the rest of us - guessing about valuation, fed timing, economic corrections, geo-political influences, debt ratios,  earnings ratios, etc. .

The only thing I am fairly certain about is that a civil war will not benefit the economy; but that is all I have to say about that before being banned for CRing on this board.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

 

All I know is that the more I read and hear about how bad 2024 will be, all as the market continues to move back towards all time highs .... well it makes me feel okay about staying invested. Because it shows they are guessing just like the rest of us - guessing about valuation, fed timing, economic corrections, geo-political influences, debt ratios,  earnings ratios, etc. .

The only thing I am fairly certain about is that a civil war will not benefit the economy; but that is all I have to say about that before being banned for CRing on this board.

 

[Trey3216 15,452]

I think I may sell everything on Friday end of day and just sit the first couple weeks of the year out.   11 straight up weeks in this environment is fucking silly 

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I think I may sell everything on Friday end of day and just sit the first couple weeks of the year out.   11 straight up weeks in this environment is fucking silly 

I may kill the rally by going long on st SPY calls; don't underestimate my power as I'm holding the bag on my 7-13 month BRK calls. I killed all of Uncle Warren's momentum.

 

Maybe, nothing for sure yet. I have to figure out how much stupid money I have laying around

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,729]

With all of the fear talk going into 2023, I hope few people acted on the fear by pulling out of the market.

[bernorange 8,385]

4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

With all of the fear talk going into 2023, ...

Quote

...
More than three-fourths of economists — 76% — said they believe the chances of a recession in the next 12 months is 50% or less, according to a December survey from the National Association for Business Economics.
...

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/26/the-us-avoided-a-recession-in-2023-whats-the-outlook-for-2024.html

Given circumstances, that sounds optimistic to me.

[Guest]

4 hours ago, bernorange said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/26/the-us-avoided-a-recession-in-2023-whats-the-outlook-for-2024.html

Given circumstances, that sounds optimistic to me.

Lulz. What a bullshit statistic. 76% of economists believe it's 50% or less? 

1. What was that stat at the start of 2023?

2. That 76% includes both people that say there is a 0% chance and a 50% chance. There's a big difference between those two outlooks.

[Storm the Field 5,366]

58 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

1. What was that stat at the start of 2023?

Bloomberg infamously had a headline late in 2022 about "Economists see 100% chance of recession in next 12 months"

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

11 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

I may kill the rally by going long on st SPY calls; don't underestimate my power as I'm holding the bag on my 7-13 month BRK calls. I killed all of Uncle Warren's momentum.

 

Maybe, nothing for sure yet. I have to figure out how much stupid money I have laying around

Spoiler

well don't say you weren't warned

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,729]

3 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Bloomberg infamously had a headline late in 2022 about "Economists see 100% chance of recession in next 12 months"

Sex Panther cologne: 60% of the time it works every time.

 

[StassneyHorn 6,767]

Q1 job numbers in 2024 are going to be so fucking hot that all the same annoying people will start asking “Will the fed reverse course and raise rates?” Good news on the economy will be bad trading days again.

[Lobwedgephil 1,146]

6 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Q1 job numbers in 2024 are going to be so fucking hot that all the same annoying people will start asking “Will the fed reverse course and raise rates?” Good news on the economy will be bad trading days again.

Seems unlikely to me. Typical Fed cycle so far, bad news will be bad news. If the Fed starts cutting, well, you can look at the chart and see what happened last few times. 

[52-80 19,377]

We should disband these companies so regular Americans dont have easy access to index investing

 

[Hefeweizen 5,444]

So hang on, it’s not the evil corporations but the money managers who own stock that’s the problem now?  So confusing…

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

i don't even know what the accusation is.  vanguard is a monopoly somehow?  seems analogous to saying roads are a monopoly in dominating the ways we get to places in our cars.