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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Incredulity said:

So....are we going to end up giving back the Nov and Dec gains?  24 kinda sucks.

Lol. 2024 may be down 50%, I don't know. But complaining that it sucks after the ridiculously strong November/December is wild.

I'd be more surprised if it didn't take a breather after running 15%+ in two months.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11532

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Lol. 2024 may be down 50%, I don't know. But complaining that it sucks after the ridiculously strong November/December is wild

As stated above the contrast is the source of the complaint.  Not a big deal, just a random comment when I looked at the google finance page and saw red again.  Red again today. So far.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5270

Posted
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49 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Lol. 2024 may be down 50%, I don't know. But complaining that it sucks after the ridiculously strong November/December is wild.

I'd be more surprised if it didn't take a breather after running 15%+ in two months.

Retail sales came in significantly stronger than consensus for December. Combine that with Fed officials trying to tamper down any talk of imminent rate cuts and bond yields are rising again.

We're, temporarily I think, back in  pattern of "economy still running hotter than Fed wants, ergo bonds go up, equities go down."

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

Posted
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1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Lol. 2024 may be down 50%, I don't know. But complaining that it sucks after the ridiculously strong November/December is wild.

I'd be more surprised if it didn't take a breather after running 15%+ in two months.

 

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

As stated above the contrast is the source of the complaint.  Not a big deal, just a random comment when I looked at the google finance page and saw red again.  Red again today. So far.

 

56 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Retail sales came in significantly stronger than consensus for December. Combine that with Fed officials trying to tamper down any talk of imminent rate cuts and bond yields are rising again.

We're, temporarily I think, back in  pattern of "economy still running hotter than Fed wants, ergo bonds go up, equities go down."

Let me know when you want the red to stop, and I will just buy some market puts.

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Captainant

Captainant 27311

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Lol. 2024 may be down 50%, I don't know. But complaining that it sucks after the ridiculously strong November/December is wild.

Literally every finance person I work with commits this fallacy - failing to account for unexpectedly high growth in one time period, and failing to anticipate the return to the previous trend coming off the local max/min

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

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On 1/16/2024 at 2:20 PM, Incredulity said:

So....are we going to end up giving back the Nov and Dec gains?  24 kinda sucks.

you should have bitched about the market a few days/weeks earlier - S&P 500 is above the all-time closing high. 
thread title is dead on - Whoa

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wackawacka

wackawacka 168

Posted
Posted

/no CR

Biden-economics is working over time. Lots of government spending in Q4 off-set slow down in consumer spending and pull back by companies. Expect continued gov spending in 2024 but a healthy consumer + companies being forced to invest for growth as cost cutting can be sustained.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11532

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37 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Still going. After Nov/Dec I didn't have that in the cards at all. 

I am totally spooked because after hemming and hawing nearly all of 2023 on continuing to buy,  I took some significant built up bites (relative) in Oct.  

somehow I lucked into this run.

 

I don't have a strategy of trying to time the market, have a very long term perspective on my personal investments.  Feels great at the moment, but awaiting the Willie Coyote piano drop.

 

and full disclosure I have some pretty ugly losers in my portfolio from plugging and chugging through most of 2022.

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Guest

Guest

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Posted

Similar boat, except it's all broad market ETFs, so things look good at the moment. I usually have to force myself to buy. If the market is up, I feel it's been too hot to buy now. If market is down, I don't want to buy a falling knife. Wish I could automate it more, but my broker doesn't have that option that I know of.

Have a nice chunk of exposure, but it should be way more to be honest. It's ok though as I can sleep well at night.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

Posted
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On 11/22/2023 at 9:54 AM, Wally Fairway said:

Heads up to those who use the Reverse Wally market indicator - I have sold my itm BRK.B 1/19/24 calls and taken those funds to reinvest in 6/21/24 and 1/17/25 $400 calls.

This is almost certain to cause a near term drop in the price of  Warren & Charlie's playhouse.

Update - the last week has turned the Uncle Warren play into the rate + side of playing options, these are still otm but I won't hold them to expiry. Rather looking to take profits as they run up towards the strike price, though if I can make enough I might hold an option or 2 and let them exercise at expiration. 

Full disclosure - these are the only options I currently hold, rethinking this whole gambol stratego money pit. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

Posted
Posted

Serious question - is there a way to tell if the strong push in BRK is related to stock buyback? 
Because it has moved up pretty quickly the last 10 days, and it is hard to believe that Buffet lemmings have all realized to take their sideline money out of MM accounts and push it all back into Warren & Co.
I am not complaining, just wondering - I know purchases will be reported, just not sure when.

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KYHorn

KYHorn 16808

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On 1/24/2024 at 1:02 PM, FirstTimeCaller said:

I usually have to force myself to buy. If the market is up, I feel it's been too hot to buy now. If market is down, I don't want to buy a falling knife. W

I relate strongly. It's even harder to buy when you can get 5% guaranteed.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

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31 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Where are you guys parking cash? Right now I’m getting 4.8% in JP Morgan money market account. How does that compare to what you Gordon Gekkos are doing?

main account at schwab mma - 5.22%
some former employer stuff, and funds inherited at fidelity, their mma is only - 4.97%, I should move it but then Mrs. Fairway would have more details 😂

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Dish Boggett

Dish Boggett 67

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Where are you guys parking cash? Right now I’m getting 4.8% in JP Morgan money market account. How does that compare to what you Gordon Gekkos are doing?

I moved some cash from my business account to an on line savings at BMO Alto last fall. earning about the same as your JP Morgan.

found it through bankrate.com. ( clarification:  I am just a dumb on old general contractor, no Gordon Gekko)

 

 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

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Posted

 

2 hours ago, Mother mopar said:
12 hours ago, Storm the Field said:
And now you all know why!
Not photoshopped. Not sorry for CR.

Wrong thread bud...take it over there ---->

Fuck that guy for thinking it is all about him - when we all know that I control the market with my hyper accurate Reverse Wally guidance.

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Dish Boggett

Dish Boggett 67

Posted
Posted
On 1/2/2024 at 12:22 PM, Wally Fairway said:

 

I like SPY, because it is actively traded. So that is what I have in my account that I play in the options market; for long term investments I have VOO and some FXAIX, depending on where the funds are sitting.

Wally, et al

-if someone was interested in buying into VOO and FXAIX as a long term investment should they worry about buying with indexes at or near all time highs? or spread this initial purchasing out over some time period?

-asking for a friend

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