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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
On 2/7/2024 at 1:57 PM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Tickling 5,000...

 

16 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Massaging 5,000...

Taking 5,000 out for a nice seafood dinner and then not calling again...

image.png.8a9854f8530eeecd77b1827d482c5a7e.png

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Captainant

Captainant 28519

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Blotto said:

And I still cant tell you which one is more comically overvalued. 

For what it's worth, people are actually buying NVDA products, and they truly are making not just technology but entire new fields of math and theory. There's definitely speculative inflation going on with NVDA, but they at least have an actual real value underlying it

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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8937

Posted
Posted (edited)

Got an email from our financial advisor today. An equity structured note that was tied to the Dow, NASDAQ, & S&P 500 was called at the beginning of the month.  It was a note that had the greatest return when all 3 indexes were up, and they were at the time. TBH, I don't know exactly how it all works but we've been working with her for several years, and we totally trust her. Turns out it was called at +24%. It's all retirement funds, which is a little more than 2 years away, so very nice. 

Edited by Mo Horn
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5674

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

Got an email from our financial advisor today. An equity structured note that was tied to the Dow, NASDAQ, & S&P 500 was called at the beginning of the month.  It was a note that had the greatest return when all 3 indexes were up, and they were at the time. TBH, I don't know exactly how it all works but we've been working with her for several years, and we totally trust her. Turns out it was called at +24%. It's all retirement funds, which is a little more than 2 years away, so very nice. 

My only comment is I would be a little concerned working with someone related to the bolded comment.

Do you know how this investment would have performed if the indexes did not go up, is it a leveraged investment, do you know how much commission she gets from these complicated structured investments. Don't be lulled to sleep because it worked this time.
As the famous money manager Ron Burgundy said - 60% of the time it works every time.

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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8937

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

My only comment is I would be a little concerned working with someone related to the bolded comment.

Do you know how this investment would have performed if the indexes did not go up, is it a leveraged investment, do you know how much commission she gets from these complicated structured investments. Don't be lulled to sleep because it worked this time.
As the famous money manager Ron Burgundy said - 60% of the time it works every time.

She explained everything and was clear on what happened if one or all indexes were down, so we knew. But your point is valid. We've been working with her for several years and she spends a ton of time with us so she knows exactly what we want to do, and in the end it's our choice. She's done really well for us and retiring in less than 2 years. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13725

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, wackawacka said:

I ignored my portfolio all of 2022 and 2023. I am way up and glad that I didn't touch my investments for close to two years.

Buy index and hold for the win.

If someone is not a worrier, I recommend to look at your portfolio balances at least monthly. If the balance is up, I’m happy about that. If it’s down, then I know my new contributions are buying even more shares. I realize that a negative person could flip that logic but I find it empowering to always know where I am.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13725

Posted
Posted
On 2/9/2024 at 1:13 PM, Tailgate said:

NVDA now worth as much as the entire Chinese stock market.

 

On 2/9/2024 at 3:01 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I sold most of my stake in the 400s when I was ecstatic about the profit. Oh well you don't go broke selling for at a profit and I did keep some of my shares. 

NVDA now up 50% since Dec 31st. Keep telling myself that is was ok that I sold 2/3 of my shares last year. Not working.

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Not a cat

Not a cat 5807

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, wackawacka said:

I ignored my portfolio all of 2022 and 2023. I am way up and glad that I didn't touch my investments for close to two years.

Buy index and hold for the win.

This right here.

I did semi-early retirement (53 at the time) last February.  My advice for people contemplating the same is quite simple-just time it right before the market goes up 20+%.  

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4th and 5

4th and 5 5003

Posted
Posted
On 2/8/2024 at 5:43 PM, 4th and 5 said:

I got me another 100 to put in VOO and every other Wednesday there’s been a drop. Dec 6, 20, Jan 3, 17, 31. Not sure if there’s a reason, but I’ll be looking for one on Valentine’s Day.

And we’re off!

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Dish Boggett

Dish Boggett 67

Posted
Posted
On 2/8/2024 at 6:43 PM, 4th and 5 said:

I got me another 100 to put in VOO and every other Wednesday there’s been a drop. Dec 6, 20, Jan 3, 17, 31. Not sure if there’s a reason, but I’ll be looking for one on Valentine’s Day.

the drop may be a day early this week

 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Y'all are weird. Market is up 22% in the past three months, and we finally get a day that's down 1.4%. Big whoop. I'm assuming this is the start of a pullback to digest a 22% GAIN IN THREE MONTHS. 

Plus, if the higher rates stick around, it will give a chance to lock in some 5.5% yield on some money for longer in addition to putting more money to work.

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3511

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Plus, if the higher rates stick around, it will give a chance to lock in some 5.5% yield on some money for longer in addition to putting more money to work.

For the less than 10% that can do this. I’m loving the returns on my money market at 5.5 and my recent 18 month CD at 5.05. People making a living and people surviving in a credit/debt heavy society are sucking wind.

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Skipper

Skipper 6411

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Newdoc said:

For the less than 10% that can do this. I’m loving the returns on my money market at 5.5 and my recent 18 month CD at 5.05. People making a living and people surviving in a credit/debt heavy society are sucking wind.

Yeah, I'm personally enjoying the cash return right now and selfishly hoping rates staying high continues to put a strain on new car sales since I'm in the market over next few months (so I might be able to get pricing at actual MSRP or less instead of garbage dealer add-ons).  But I'm very interested to see what happens to consumer delinquency curves.  They keep ticking up but I feel like it's only a matter of time until we see a more meaningful jump.  But I've been thinking that for almost a year now so who knows.

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Posted
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16 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Yeah, I'm personally enjoying the cash return right now and selfishly hoping rates staying high continues to put a strain on new car sales since I'm in the market over next few months (so I might be able to get pricing at actual MSRP or less instead of garbage dealer add-ons).  But I'm very interested to see what happens to consumer delinquency curves.  They keep ticking up but I feel like it's only a matter of time until we see a more meaningful jump.  But I've been thinking that for almost a year now so who knows.

As long as unemployment is low, it won't happen.

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52-80

52-80 19377

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Skipper said:

Yeah, I'm personally enjoying the cash return right now and selfishly hoping rates staying high continues to put a strain on new car sales since I'm in the market over next few months (so I might be able to get pricing at actual MSRP or less instead of garbage dealer add-ons).  But I'm very interested to see what happens to consumer delinquency curves.  They keep ticking up but I feel like it's only a matter of time until we see a more meaningful jump.  But I've been thinking that for almost a year now so who knows.

I was on car price watch until March…decided on Monday instead to buy a 1800mi one and today the MSRP went up $2k. Double win 🤠

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Skipper

Skipper 6411

Posted
Posted

Car Dealership Guy is a good twitter follow on car market, interest rates, delinquencies etc.    As you would expect, big picture is popular vehicles/brands still doing well.  But some (specifically Stellantis) increased pricing way too much during inflationary period and nobody is buying their inventory at current pricing.

Unfortunately what we are looking at are in the popular category so not much movement on pricing to date.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5674

Posted
Posted
On 11/22/2023 at 9:54 AM, Wally Fairway said:

Heads up to those who use the Reverse Wally market indicator - I have sold my itm BRK.B 1/19/24 calls and taken those funds to reinvest in 6/21/24 and 1/17/25 $400 calls.

This is almost certain to cause a near term drop in the price of  Warren & Charlie's playhouse.

 

On 1/25/2024 at 5:07 PM, Wally Fairway said:

Update - the last week has turned the Uncle Warren play into the rate + side of playing options, these are still otm but I won't hold them to expiry. Rather looking to take profits as they run up towards the strike price, though if I can make enough I might hold an option or 2 and let them exercise at expiration. 

Full disclosure - these are the only options I currently hold, rethinking this whole gambol stratego money pit. 

Market warning - today I cancelled my first sale order on the 6/21/24 options, as they are up about 300%, so that would have covered the cost of all of the options for that expiry; and I am going to see if this continues to run for a little bit more.
These are in a prime spot of still time to run ahead of the trend, at they are "only" about $6 ITM but are priced at $22.50, vega is my friend right now, but theta is a cold hearted bitch that will eat those prices the close I get to expiration date. I feel like there is a 60-90 day window to sell when pricing peaks, before time eats back to the midline.

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