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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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52-80

52-80 19066

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

do they ever split things like SPY?  feels like $500 is too high of a barrier for entry for folks.

if we all sell out of the index at once it achieves the same objective

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

do they ever split things like SPY?  feels like $500 is too high of a barrier for entry for folks.

not really - if you are buying it through a 401k, they you buy fractional shares every time it is funded, and I think you can just buy it in $ amounts I think most brokers will fill orders for $$"s on ETF's and mutual funds. To be honest I have no idea if some brokerages charge higher fees for fractional share transactions, I do know that Schwab charges next to nothing for stocks, mutual funds, ETF's and usually just pennies for options, there are some small fees for non-US holdings. 
I think my son is buying $50 week (or every other week) of SPY, and paying no fees at Schwab.

Then again maybe this is special pricing for their best customers - after all I am a multi-thousandaire, and a nominally active trader.

Edited by Wally Fairway
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Incredulity

Incredulity 11532

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, bernorange said:

NVDA earnings tomorrow.  S&P500 will rise or fall on the news. 

Based on today’s action they aren’t going to be good.  Although in the context of NVDA price movement over the last year only perfection would be good enough.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

Posted
Posted
On 2/20/2024 at 9:42 AM, bernorange said:

NVDA earnings tomorrow.  S&P500 will rise or fall on the news. 

 

23 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Based on today’s action they aren’t going to be good.  Although in the context of NVDA price movement over the last year only perfection would be good enough.

Buy the hype, sell the news.

"A tale as old as time, True as it can be
 Ever just the same, Ever a surprise
 Ever as before, Ever just as sure
 As the sun will rise"

 - sound investment advice from Beauty and the Beast

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bluto

bluto 4873

Posted
Posted

Need help… I own shares of company A, they’re down 10%. Company B bought company A, all stock deal and let’s just call it 1:1 and share prices are even. 
 

can I sell off my company A shares and immediately buy company B today months before the deal closes to capture the loss or will wash/sale apply?

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

Posted
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9 minutes ago, bluto said:

Need help… I own shares of company A, they’re down 10%. Company B bought company A, all stock deal and let’s just call it 1:1 and share prices are even. 
 

can I sell off my company A shares and immediately buy company B today months before the deal closes to capture the loss or will wash/sale apply?

Sell company A, harvest that tax loss.
Buy calls on company B, at about the same price is now, but for 6 months from now. Exercise is beyond wash/sale limit. Stock goes up = Profit. 
Stock doesn't go up - {insert "one of us" gif}

Actual answer/guess is that you can sell A and buy B and not have a wash transaction as they are different stocks and there are risks and rewards that are different for each (disclaimer - I selpt at a Holiday Inn Express last night)

Edited by Wally Fairway
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Blotto

Blotto 23418

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, bluto said:

Need help… I own shares of company A, they’re down 10%. Company B bought company A, all stock deal and let’s just call it 1:1 and share prices are even. 
 

can I sell off my company A shares and immediately buy company B today months before the deal closes to capture the loss or will wash/sale apply?

1.) Wash sale rules typically cover "substantial identical securities"  which is a pretty nebulous term. As the  proposed acquisition hasnt even closed yet, I dont see how you could consider the two stocks identical securities

2.) If I actually needed the answer to this, I probably wouldnt listen to me. 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5270

Posted
Posted
On 2/20/2024 at 8:42 AM, bernorange said:

NVDA earnings tomorrow.  S&P500 will rise or fall on the news. 

Blowout.

Quote

 

Nvidia Corp. crushed expectations with its latest results and outlook Wednesday, helping to send its shares soaring as management talked up a bright future fueled in part by artificial-intelligence demand.

The chip giant has benefited from frenzied spending on AI hardware, and that was on display again Wednesday as the company reported fiscal fourth-quarter results. Revenue came in at $22.1 billion, up from $6.05 billion a year before, while analysts had been modeling $20.4 billion.

 

 265% increase in revenue YOY. Stock up 8% after hours to nearly $730.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

Posted
Posted

I presumed NVDA numbers would be good but not good enough. Financial Media would spin as bad sign for 2024 and today would see a huge opening drop.

glad I didn’t act on my stupid opinion. Today is shaping up to be one of those days that you didn’t want to be out of the market.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

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Posted

I am surprised at bernoranges post - I thought he would have posted what I am about to 

The market excitement will last for a while, but when the new jobs report, inflation number and the continued stock market surge is all accounted for the Fed may well unpause their rate increases or at least take any rate decreases of the table for 2024 and likely indicate that none in 2025. 
Then we will see if the Fed has any real impact on the market (it will drop when they announce, but how long will that last), or are they now just having to step back and watch the economy (I don't think they will give up the battle)

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I am surprised at bernoranges post - I thought he would have posted what I am about to 

The market excitement will last for a while, but when the new jobs report, inflation number and the continued stock market surge is all accounted for the Fed may well unpause their rate increases or at least take any rate decreases of the table for 2024 and likely indicate that none in 2025. 
Then we will see if the Fed has any real impact on the market (it will drop when they announce, but how long will that last), or are they now just having to step back and watch the economy (I don't think they will give up the battle)

If inflation isn't dropping then it's the correct move for the Fed to do nothing. No reason for them to pour gas on a fire.

If the Fed announced that rate drops would be further delayed, I'm sure the market would react negatively but I also believe that is already partially baked into the market now. We're effectively at all time highs for several indexes and investors know the Fed may not lower rates.

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Blotto

Blotto 23418

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Posted (edited)

 SMCI is cracking me upright about now. 

Q2 Rev up about 3X vs two years ago

 image.png.5dc4c7018d178ea3acdbc05832b333fb.png

Q2 Net income up about 4X vs two years ago

 image.png.737fd832126ae824187642eb544be816.png

Market cap up about 27X vs two years ago

 image.png.5710ee90ddc5feea61c2d61d20ec4204.png

a 75 PE for a server manufacturer that will always be somewhat price constrained by the competition seems problematic to grow into, but I aint shorting it. Options premiums nuts as well. 

Edited by Blotto
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Your Mom

Your Mom 4789

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Jensen Huang, CEO of NVDA, has risen about 5 spots on the Bloomberg Top 100 List in the past 24 hours. Net worth has gone up nearly $10B since he got out of bed this morning.

My huang also rose this morning when  NVDA and SMCI started climbing back up.  

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 17875

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Jensen Huang, CEO of NVDA, has risen about 5 spots on the Bloomberg Top 100 List in the past 24 hours. Net worth has gone up nearly $10B since he got out of bed this morning.

If I was on the board, hookers and blow would be on me tonight.

 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Shorting spx down below 5000 from a cost basis of 5050 pray for me my dudes

Dude - are you trying to replace me.
Good luck, I am enjoying my BRK.B calls, someone remind me that to make money you have to sell when you stop holding things that are actually above the cost.
 

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52-80

52-80 19066

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45 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Dude - are you trying to replace me.
Good luck, I am enjoying my BRK.B calls, someone remind me that to make money you have to sell when you stop holding things that are actually above the cost.
 

Today im the bug tomorrow ill be the windshield. 
 

maybe. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Transfer the big winners to charity. Take the full value deduction. Do good, minimize taxes. Everyone wins.  

I'm all about stacking those loss carry forwards.  Can never claim a gain on the tax rolls as long as you stack those losses deep.  

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

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Posted

Gotta love Uncle Warren saying that, at this point, BRK is basically to big to beat the market by any significant amount. And that it will be difficult to make acquisitions or investments that are large enough to contribute to BRK performance.

And he does this as BRK.b is up 17% YTD, while the S&P 500 is up about 7%; one year returns are 37.2 vs 28.2; NASDAW is up 6.6% and 40.7 (but BRK is really and industrial not a tech stock)

I am waiting to see if the earnings report, or Warrens comments cool the trend of the stock performance. 
Disclosure - I am holding June 24 and January 25 expiry $400 calls that are up over 4x and almost 2x since purchase (mid November)

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

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BRK.b acting like a stonk this morning - jumping in the pre-market over 5% ($20) it opened up about $12 and is not trading at a small loss for the day. 
And all on "news" that broke on Saturday, when earnings was released. Who know an almost $1 trillion insurance/industrial/stock investment conglomerate would swing like this on the ramblings of a 93 year old icon and a couple of analysts reports. 

Stocks (and markets) can become stonks - for really undetermined reasons.
America - what a country! 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Gotta love Uncle Warren saying that, at this point, BRK is basically to big to beat the market by any significant amount. And that it will be difficult to make acquisitions or investments that are large enough to contribute to BRK performance.

And he does this as BRK.b is up 17% YTD, while the S&P 500 is up about 7%; one year returns are 37.2 vs 28.2; NASDAW is up 6.6% and 40.7 (but BRK is really and industrial not a tech stock)

I am waiting to see if the earnings report, or Warrens comments cool the trend of the stock performance. 
Disclosure - I am holding June 24 and January 25 expiry $400 calls that are up over 4x and almost 2x since purchase (mid November)

Inflation can be a good thing for corporations.

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