Markets still falling like whoa

[Wally Fairway 5541]

I am "only" down $30 per option on my BRK.b since yesterday's open, though I am still up I am kicking myself for not having a open order to sell options as they go up, as some of them would have triggered at the open yesterday - at least 1/2 of what I have open. So each option is now worth $3.000 less than at yesterdays open. 
Oh well I'm sure it will rebound, at some point - and I will get the opportunity to buy on the dip when Warren kicks off or steps down, but then again he may outlive me.

[52-80 19147]

On 2/23/2024 at 9:36 PM, Wally Fairway said:

thanks for the update - but this belongs in the stonk thread, or maybe gambol

Since that post, NVDA stayed flat while AMD gained 11% (pretty much off todays 9%). 
 

But it was a smol position, so will keep holding to see if nvda can crash back to sensible levels

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

SPY up 30% YoY.  $511 right now. I don't know what to think of all this.

[52-80 19147]

2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

SPY up 30% YoY.  $511 right now. I don't know what to think of all this.

‘Sell in may and go away’

[Incredulity 11654]

"Sell in March and gamble it on the NCAA Tournament"

It's like free money.

[Blotto 23490]

4 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

SPY up 30% YoY.  $511 right now. I don't know what to think of all this.

The market reaction to DELL is something. Its a decent enough report with revenue down 14% YoY,  earnings up 25% YoY,  and predicting revenue growth of 3 to 4% and income growth of  8%. So naturally the stock jumps 30% bringing up the YoY stock appreciation to a smoove 200% YoY. And that seems conservative compared to AMD's 375 PE at a 375B market cap. These runs are fun on the way up. Not so much when they correct. 

[WBT 20561]

*39000

Surely they'll make some new hats for 40k right?

[Wally Fairway 5541]

I sold my remaining calls today; so all the reverse Wally indicators show the market changing to risk on

[52-80 19147]

You may not like it, but this is what peak portfolio management looks like

 

[LCHorn 2615]

Dalio has spent way too much time with sycophants…

[52-80 19147]

1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

Dalio has spent way too much time with sycophants…

What’s the point of billions of dollars if you can’t finally afford those t swift tickets

[BearSchlong 8083]

My best friend from High School invited me to come to the Berkshire Hathaway meeting in May. I might go, as Warren is getting long in the tooth.

Anybody ever been?

[Royalfan5 2353]

9 hours ago, BearSchlong said:

My best friend from High School invited me to come to the Berkshire Hathaway meeting in May. I might go, as Warren is getting long in the tooth.

Anybody ever been?

I accidentally went to Nebraska Furniture Mart during the Berkshire Hathaway meeting which was a mistake. 

[Wally Fairway 5541]

On 3/11/2024 at 12:56 AM, BearSchlong said:

My best friend from High School invited me to come to the Berkshire Hathaway meeting in May. I might go, as Warren is getting long in the tooth.

Anybody ever been?

so is he a millionaire or a billionaire - when did he start buying BRK stock, long enough ago that he has A shares, or just B shares like us poor folk?

[BearSchlong 8083]

I don't roll with real ballers, he is just a BRK.B poor like me. Hoping maybe I hear something somewhere that intrigues me.

[Storm the Field 5294]

New ATH for the S&P today at 5178. DJIA (39,110)  and Nasdaq (16,166) both back to within 0.5% of their previous ATH.

[bernorange 8359]

 

 

 

[Snake Diggity 4620]

Why is stock concentration considered a leading indicator of economic doom?  Why is decreasing money supply in correlation with that an indicator of economic doom?  Some interesting graphs but seems kind of meaningless at face value.

[Captainant 27637]

18 minutes ago, bernorange said:

 

Can I get that in the form of a FRED graph and an "ALL IS WELL" post? Line is going up, what's the problem?

8 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Why is stock concentration considered a leading indicator of economic doom?  Why is decreasing money supply in correlation with that an indicator of economic doom?  Some interesting graphs but seems kind of meaningless at face value.

Stock concentration means that the market is shrinking and there's less people around to buy shares to keep prices up naturally. Similarly, decreasing money supply in circulation means that there's more hoarding of wealth, which further shrinks the economy for anyone that wasn't born on 3rd base or is already wealthy. 

It means that nothing is trickling down and that all the economic gains we have seen are not going to the people doing the work, but rather the entities holding the capital. If you need an explanation on why any of that is bad, you should check out this little known period in history called the Gilded Age and what happens soon afterwards

Edited March 20 by Captainant

[hornian 5210]

42 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Can I get that in the form of a FRED graph and an "ALL IS WELL" post? Line is going up, what's the problem?

Stock concentration means that the market is shrinking and there's less people around to buy shares to keep prices up naturally. Similarly, decreasing money supply in circulation means that there's more hoarding of wealth, which further shrinks the economy for anyone that wasn't born on 3rd base or is already wealthy. 

It means that nothing is trickling down and that all the economic gains we have seen are not going to the people doing the work, but rather the entities holding the capital. If you need an explanation on why any of that is bad, you should check out this little known period in history called the Gilded Age and what happens soon afterwards

Season 2 just ended on HBO. No spoilers for future seasons, please.

[Wally Fairway 5541]

16 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

New ATH for the S&P today at 5178. DJIA (39,110)  and Nasdaq (16,166) both back to within 0.5% of their previous ATH.

Time to look at 9-12 month SPY & QQQ put pricing - or to check for news stories and see if Michael Blurry is short {again}

[bernorange 8359]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Why is stock concentration considered a leading indicator of economic doom?  Why is decreasing money supply in correlation with that an indicator of economic doom?  Some interesting graphs but seems kind of meaningless at face value.

Stock concentration is a bubble warning indicator.  Decreasing money supply (Fed's QT in progress) means credit/debt destruction which is a headwind for the real economy.  Things will get interesting soon as the Fed's BTFP is not open any more and the ONRRP liquidity slush fund is draining.

Quote

...
Of about 4,000 U.S. banks analyzed by consulting firm Klaros Group, 282 institutions have both high levels of commercial real estate exposure and large unrealized losses from the rate surge — a potentially toxic combo that may force these lenders to raise fresh capital or engage in mergers.
...

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/where-cracks-in-the-banking-sector-may-appear-without-more-ma.html

 

 

[52-80 19147]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Can I get that in the form of a FRED graph and an "ALL IS WELL" post? Line is going up, what's the problem?

Stock concentration means that the market is shrinking and there's less people around to buy shares to keep prices up naturally. Similarly, decreasing money supply in circulation means that there's more hoarding of wealth, which further shrinks the economy for anyone that wasn't born on 3rd base or is already wealthy. 

It means that nothing is trickling down and that all the economic gains we have seen are not going to the people doing the work, but rather the entities holding the capital. If you need an explanation on why any of that is bad, you should check out this little known period in history called the Gilded Age and what happens soon afterwards

Fucking retard. 

The 'stock concentration' bernorange linked to, has to do with the distribution of values between companies within an index.  The net value of the index itself has grown, not shrunk.

Stock ownership increased for all demographics overtime.  It increased MORE for the lower income demographics.

Liquid money supply is optimal at a balance.  Rapid increase in liquid money is what draws inflation, idiot.

Economy hasn't shrunk.  All of its primary measures (eg GDP) grew.

The economic gain was accretive to all economic classes.  Economic vulnerability decreased for the whole country:

 

 

Literally everything you write, ever, is ass backwards wrong.

Jesus fucking christ.  I dunno, guys, should we trust the October 2023 report by the federal reserve's board of research and statistics based on its latest survey of thousands of people representing 100 million families.... or listen to an anime watching retard who hasnt grown out of his Occupy Wall Street phase?

[Incredulity 11654]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Michael Blurry is short {again}

[Captainant 27637]

15 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Fucking retard. 

The 'stock concentration' bernorange linked to, has to do with the distribution of values between companies within an index.  The net value of the index itself has grown, not shrunk.

Stock ownership increased for all demographics overtime.  It increased MORE for the lower income demographics.

Liquid money supply is optimal at a balance.  Rapid increase in liquid money is what draws inflation, idiot.

You truly have mastered the art of using tortured and dishonest graphics to advance your point.

You are showing not the value or worth of holdings, just that if anyone has anything at all. In your framing, a homeless dude with a fidelity account an an AMC share is equivalent to Jeff Bezos - you completely strip the meaningful information of actual monetary value in favor of a weasel metric like "percentage of families that own at least one share", and then equivocate the two. 

Giving a billionaire a 1% raise gives them an extra $10,000,000. Giving an hourly earner a 1% raise gets them an extra couple bucks a month or maybe an extra couple Benjamins over the whole year. But since you have found a number that lets you equivocate the two wildly different classes, your framing is automatically correct and you have now unlocked personal attacks on posters as a perk!

Give me a fucking break. 

You insist that because some marginal progress can be argued for, that the job is done and anyone complaining is just an "anime watching retard". Ya boi FRED must be getting caught up too. And I know you've linked that in the past because the top paragraph says "all cohorts are growing in percentage and the bottom group is growing fastest" but if you read past the fold it clarifies that shit is still WILDY inequitable. 75% of all economic growth in 2022 went to less than 10% of families

I get it, you want to stick your fingers in your ears and believe that anyone less wealthy than you is simply lazy and less than and not worthy of help. Sorry to be an "anime watching retard" and disagree with your framing. 

[Incredulity 11654]

22 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Rapid increase in liquid money is what draws inflation, idiot.

 

Idoit.  Please.

[52-80 19147]

11 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

 

Idoit.  Please.

in this movie he would be the ze germans.... irredeemable nihilist and a forgettable footnote.   or maybe the fruity landlord.

[immamac 42837]

59 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Fucking retard. 

The 'stock concentration' bernorange linked to, has to do with the distribution of values between companies within an index.  The net value of the index itself has grown, not shrunk.

Stock ownership increased for all demographics overtime.  It increased MORE for the lower income demographics.

Liquid money supply is optimal at a balance.  Rapid increase in liquid money is what draws inflation, idiot.

Economy hasn't shrunk.  All of its primary measures (eg GDP) grew.

The economic gain was accretive to all economic classes.  Economic vulnerability decreased for the whole country:

 

 

Literally everything you write, ever, is ass backwards wrong.

Jesus fucking christ.  I dunno, guys, should we trust the October 2023 report by the federal reserve's board of research and statistics based on its latest survey of thousands of people representing 100 million families.... or listen to an anime watching retard who hasnt grown out of his Occupy Wall Street phase?

a bit on the aggressive side, just tone it down a tad, message can be delivered without egregious use of regard and straight ad-hominem

[52-80 19147]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

a bit on the aggressive side, just tone it down a tad, message can be delivered without egregious use of regard and straight ad-hominem

financial accounts go bbrrrrrrr

[hornian 5210]

4 hours ago, immamac said:

a bit on the aggressive side, just tone it down a tad, message can be delivered without egregious use of regard and straight ad-hominem

[Guest]

Damn. In January I was saying I was hoping for a pullback. This is five straight months of number goes up. 

[Storm the Field 5294]

FMOC kept expectations at 3 rate cuts in 2024. They also significantly raised their GDP forecast for 2024 (1.4%->2.1%) while only modestly raising their Core PCE forecast (2.4%->2.6%).

Stonks to the moon.

Edited March 20 by Storm the Field

[Wally Fairway 5541]

41 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Damn. In January I was saying I was hoping for a pullback. This is five straight months of number goes up. 

Ride the wave, or get caught in the undertow

[jdhorn92 1545]

Maybe Im over-simplfying it, but the enormous amount of money in 4%-5% CD's , Money Market Accounts, CMA's etc.. heck I bought a CD for the first time in my life in 2023 and rolled to another 12 mosn in '24.  Can't stay there forever.  It will need to find a home (no pun intended) as rates come down.  That alone could be the liquidity needed to buy more stocks as I see it.  When and if mortgage rates ease even a point, we could see a home buying push, then add all the potential equity taking, downsizing,  that will put a ton of liquidity in to the market.   

[Mo Horn 8831]

Getting close to 40K. Major correction coming soon, would be my guess. 

[52-80 19147]

On 2/23/2024 at 9:18 PM, 52-80 said:

Its friday so decided to get cute and put on a smol pairs trade, 4:1 long amd / short nvda 

 

On 2/23/2024 at 9:36 PM, Wally Fairway said:

thanks for the update - but this belongs in the stonk thread, or maybe gambol

update: this was going good for a bit, but has inverted the other way.  cousin jensen is embarassing cousin lisa.  im still holding onto it

[Wally Fairway 5541]

32 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Getting close to 40K. Major correction coming soon, would be my guess. 

please stop saying that, it makes my spidey senses tingle and I want to go layer on some SPY puts

[Captainant 27637]

13 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

please stop saying that, it makes my spidey senses tingle and I want to go layer on some SPY puts

That's only gonna delay it - inverse Wally principle 

[52-80 19147]

20 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

please stop saying that, it makes my spidey senses tingle and I want to go layer on some SPY puts

do it wally.  cost of spx puts are cheap.  vix (30d vol) is basically skirting historical lows. 

Edited March 21 by 52-80
i bought some to make kenny griffin a few pennies richer

[Wally Fairway 5541]

23 minutes ago, Captainant said:

That's only gonna delay it - inverse Wally principle 

fair warning - I have no principles

[Storm the Field 5294]

1 hour ago, Mo Horn said:

Getting close to 40K. Major correction coming soon, would be my guess. 

Bold and insightful.

[52-80 19147]

41 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Bold and insightful.

Solidarity in bearishness. I stand with wally ✊🏾✊🏾✊🏾

[Sbbruin 21829]

2 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

Getting close to 40K. Major correction coming soon, would be my guess. 

[0xdeadbeef 1645]

3 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

Getting close to 40K. Major correction coming soon, would be my guess. 

<fingers in ears> LA LA LA I'm not listening.

There was an old Kingston Trio song called M.T.A about a guy who couldn't get off the subway.   I feel like that guy.

Over the last year and a half, my portfolio has morphed into all Tech stocks and Tech sector funds.  The bottom line is amazing, but I have no exit strategy.

How/When  do you get off the Tech Rocketship?    Long Term Hold is my current plan, but I know there's going to be a big-ass correction at some point.     It makes me nervous to think that maybe we're at the peak of the mountain right now and that we're going to look back in a couple years and say "I wish I sold there". 

 

...Or maybe NVDA is going to 2,000. Hell yeah, let's ride this pony!

[Mo Horn 8831]

Mrs Mo is 9 months from retirement and I'm 1 1/2 years away. Our financial advisor recently said she is going to start slowly moving some of our money to things with more predictable returns, but probably less chance for higher returns. With everything at all time highs, it looks like the money gods have been kind to us. 

[Storm the Field 5294]

17 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Mrs Mo is 9 months from retirement and I'm 1 1/2 years away. Our financial advisor recently said she is going to start slowly moving some of our money to things with more predictable returns, but probably less chance for higher returns. With everything at all time highs, it looks like the money gods have been kind to us. 

[Wally Fairway 5541]

10 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

fair warning - I have no principles

2nd fair warning - I am heading to Chicago for the weekend, last time I did this was end of Feb 2020 & the market went into crash mode. If this happens again in the next week it confirms causation 📉

Price me wrong 

[Incredulity 11654]

49 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

end of Feb 2020

[BearSchlong 8083]

So who thinks Reddit is the new FAANG?

I made some money on it today. Thinking I might add some weight tomorrow.

[Guest]

9 hours ago, BearSchlong said:

So who thinks Reddit is the new FAANG?

I made some money on it today. Thinking I might add some weight tomorrow.

I don't think it at all, and it's the website I spend the most time on outside of here.

For one, it's only $7B market cap. But more importantly, it just isn't mainstream enough.