Markets still falling like whoa

[LTtxfan 49,986]

 

[Captainant 28,509]

15 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

Every single Congressman knows if they are the ones to usher in some austerity/balance the budget, they will never be re-elected. And the American public is too stupid to see any further than their next paycheck. 

This is an artifact and echo of the American business system writ large. Don't worry about long term consequences, short term is all you can see so it's all that exists.

15 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

There is only 1 solution. Congressional budget limits must be set by an independent committee, IE the fed. Congress can spend it however they wish but the Fed tells them what the limit is per year.

That's a major constitutional amendment my dude. Congress has the power of the purse. The real problem is that Congress's actions no longer align with the wishes of the people, but rather the wishes of their donors and so people's wishes and consent don't really have much impact on spending anymore 

[52-80 19,377]

20 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

This shit makes me furious. Gotta run up debt during the GFC? Understandable. Gotta run it up during Covid? Yes. (You can argue amounts being excessive, etc.)

But during the good times, you better be making changes to pay it back. Not continuing to spend like crazy and cutting taxes. I'd argue that 2010-2020 were good times and 2022-Today are good times. Instead, we just keep going.

When the next black swan hits, we going to run that shit to 200% of GDP?

Average age of senators and congressfolk is literally 60+. Theyre ignant as shit on economics and have no personal risk pegged to Tomorrows Problem, which the consequence of runaway debt is.  They’ll be retired, fat, and sufficiently wealthy. 

On a digression, if anyones been tracking metals lately, silver and gold has been on a tear

[Guest]

I think it also drives me nuts because interest is just wasted opportunity. Think of what positive things we could do with that money. A trillion fucking dollars a year? 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10,803]

Military spending is the only place where massive cuts can occur and quickly, but Congress (via lobbies) spread its tentacles across pretty much every district so that no one would ever be for it. Our military spending is 40% of the worlds total, 3 times China and more than the next 10 countries combined.  It's going to take something dramatic to change that I'm afraid.

[tbone_ 14,438]

All that spending and we can’t stop cyber attacks, social media election subversion, Havana syndrome, or fentanyl. Bummer.

[South Austin 53,220]

11 hours ago, tbone_ said:

All that spending and we can’t stop cyber attacks, social media election subversion, Havana syndrome, or fentanyl.

Or Nickelback.

[tbone_ 14,438]

I feel like Nickelback pretty much got crowd source banned.

[52-80 19,377]

Perversely they need the military to protect the value of the dollar that they need to cheaply raise more of to pay for the dollars they already raised

Cuz if theres some pirates fucking about blocking trade and commerce (thats conducted in $) you know the Armada is coming out 🛥️ 🦅 

[Mother mopar 3,383]

I feel like Nickelback pretty much got crowd source banned.

Was there a thread on it,lulz.

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

CPI spikes in March - {insert prepare your anus rep}
Interest rate cuts are moving farther away, or are off the table & if this becomes a trend in April & May then IMO rate hikes discussions are back on the table. 
On the other hand, in election years, the Fed has tried to stay neutral ... but 2024 might just be a different thing

Shoulda loaded up on SPY puts

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

On 4/10/2024 at 11:36 AM, Wally Fairway said:

CPI spikes in March - {insert prepare your anus rep}
Interest rate cuts are moving farther away, or are off the table & if this becomes a trend in April & May then IMO rate hikes discussions are back on the table. 
On the other hand, in election years, the Fed has tried to stay neutral ... but 2024 might just be a different thing

Shoulda loaded up on SPY puts 

Intra-day rollercoaster is dizzying, I need to back away from looking & thinking I should do something. And yet that isn't a comfortable feeling either.  Fuck me

[52-80 19,377]

[Aqua Buddha 14,803]

If you know, you know:

 

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

SPY & BRK.B are both down about $20 since the early Aprils highs (4% and 5% roughly) - so I ask the Surly gurus, is this a buying opportunity, or a harbinger for where we are headed this summer into (or past) the election?
Obviously asking for a friend who wants to know if it is time to buy some calls, or some puts?
a little bit of both is not a credible response and you will be ignored or laughed at)

[Incredulity 11,874]

I think there is more downside in the next 6 months as the market comes to accept there won’t be rate cuts this year.  But that’s just one Surly asshole’s opinion.

 

 

[Incredulity 11,874]

38,000

 

 

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

On 4/15/2024 at 5:39 PM, Incredulity said:

I think there is more downside in the next 6 months as the market comes to accept there won’t be rate cuts this year.  But that’s just one Surly asshole’s opinion.

 

 

Full disclosure time - likely no more downside to due to the Reverse-Wally market impact

Sold 10% of my SPY today, and bought some SPY puts with expiration from 5/1/24 - 1/17/25 and strikes from $500 down to $450
Act accordingly
past performance is not a guarantee of future results....blah, blah, blah

[Incredulity 11,874]

6 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

likely no more downside to due to the Reverse-Wally market impact

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

so sell and take my 24 hour loss, or average down on my cost?
sit and hold could be best, but it is a boring way to lose money...

[Incredulity 11,874]

well, today's rally vanished like a fart in a stiff breeze.

[Thetexashammer 1,062]

I've been looking at LAC as a lottery ticket. They raised new money today. Based on the shares issued, their overall valuation is basically unchanged.

[UTGrad98 2,332]

Market isn't gonna like Israel bombing Iran tonight. 

Edited April 19 by UTGrad98
Phone autocorrect

[Larry T. Spider 1,747]

Futures down across the board.

Im going to make a simpletons bearish case for the next 6-7 months. Yall poke holes in it.

Inflation is sticking around enough to prevent rate cuts that were somewhat priced into the market. 

Global unrest is going to persist for at least that duration. Issues with China arent going away. Ukraine/Russia is still going strong and now we throw in a Middle East showdown. 

Now to tie the two together. Oil prices are going to go up, which will have an inflationary effect on just about everything, further delaying rate cuts, and cementing a shit market for a while.

Tell me how I’m wrong and we are all going to get rich in 2024.
 

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

6 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Futures down across the board.

Im going to make a simpletons bearish case for the next 6-7 months. Yall poke holes in it.

Inflation is sticking around enough to prevent rate cuts that were somewhat priced into the market. 

Global unrest is going to persist for at least that duration. Issues with China arent going away. Ukraine/Russia is still going strong and now we throw in a Middle East showdown. 

Now to tie the two together. Oil prices are going to go up, which will have an inflationary effect on just about everything, further delaying rate cuts, and cementing a shit market for a while.

Tell me how I’m wrong and we are all going to get rich in 2024.
 

Where do I send my $9.95/month?

[JGrayDBU 372]

so are we really not going to get to any rate cut this year?  

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

39 minutes ago, JGrayDBU said:

so are we really not going to get to any rate cut this year?  

[WBT 20,966]

I'm starting to think a rate hike is almost as likely.

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

escalating ware in the MIddle East
continuing war in Ukraine
funding impasse in the US to support the ongoing war efforts
China expansion pressures continue in the Pacific Rim (and economic support to Africa)
political uncertainty in the US
 

Market impact

[Incredulity 11,874]

20 minutes ago, WBT said:

I'm starting to think a rate hike is almost as likely.

[Incredulity 11,874]

9 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Tell me how I’m wrong and we are all going to get rich in 2024.

I have no idea if you are right or wrong.  There is plenty to be concerned about.  I would add- Commercial RE is a sarlac pit of dread, March home starts were in the shitter,  second order effects of inflation are starting to hit(insurance), commodities are rising,....

 

counterpoints- markets usually do well in election years, the government can't afford the increased rates to finance its debt so rate cuts seem inevitable.

 

 

[Larry T. Spider 1,747]

I actually see the inflation problem getting solved in 8-12 months, which will lead to lower rates.
 

Unfortunately, it will be because the average American will have accumulated so much credit card and car loan debt on top of their student loan debt, that spending will have to come down.

[WBT 20,966]

42 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Unfortunately, it will be because the average American will have accumulated so much credit card and car loan debt on top of their student loan debt, that spending will have to come down.

Unless the credit card companies just keep raising the credit limits.  I already don't know how they expect to get paid back so why not?

[StassneyHorn 6,767]

On demand employment has broken every economist’s brain.

[StassneyHorn 6,767]

Why spend 100k on student loans when you can crowdsource a Waymo that will drive people around all day and make money while you go to day parties at the pool and get coked up.

AI is a savior, but the software update will cost you 499.95.

[Redneck Mutha 8,174]

On 4/19/2024 at 8:55 AM, Wally Fairway said:

escalating ware in the MIddle East
continuing war in Ukraine
funding impasse in the US to support the ongoing war efforts
China expansion pressures continue in the Pacific Rim (and economic support to Africa)
political uncertainty in the US
 

Market impact

Counterpoint:  Wally puts

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

On 4/20/2024 at 10:16 PM, Redneck Mutha said:

Counterpoint:  Wally puts

point well taken
y'all can thank me now

[UTGrad98 2,332]

Markets dont seem to like stagflation. Volcker the rate up to 6% and lets get it over with. Id rather have a rate shock and 2-3 quarters of a recession to reset everything than whatever this is.

[Incredulity 11,874]

5 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Volcker the rate up to 6%

If we are in stagflation another 1% is a fart in a stiff breeze.

[Rip76 5,022]

Why is the Dow -700 today?  Someone lob a missle?

Traveling at the moment.  

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

Just now, Rip76 said:

Why is the Dow -700 today?  Someone lob a missle?

Traveling at the moment.  

Wasn't me - I didn't buy or sell anything, not stocks, not ETF/funds, not puts, not calls, not a damn thing

[Incredulity 11,874]

3 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Why is the Dow -700 today?  Someone lob a missle?

Traveling at the moment.  

GDP lower than expectations

Inflation higher than expectations

 

Today, bad news is bad news I guess.

[Anastasis 23,716]

This isn’t fun. 

[FartingMonk 3,614]

Driven down by META earnings.  It's fucking stupid.  They beat expectations.  Said hey we gotta spend a lot of money to build this AI thing so it can make us a lot of money.  Investors freak out and dumped.  Fucking 12K haircut on that news 

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

Fucking 12K haircut on that news 

Only if you transact at that price - just sayin'

[Captainant 28,509]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

Driven down by META earnings.  It's fucking stupid.  They beat expectations.  Said hey we gotta spend a lot of money to build this AI thing so it can make us a lot of money.  Investors freak out and dumped.  Fucking 12K haircut on that news 

Get ready for when the music stops with TSLA. They are playing some fuck fuck games with their accounting 

[FartingMonk 3,614]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Only if you transact at that price - just sayin'

Yeah.  It's all RSUs anyways.  Free money

[Trey3216 15,452]

3 hours ago, Captainant said:

Get ready for when the music stops with TSLA. They are playing some fuck fuck games with their accounting 

So is the FED and other departments.  But I’ve told people for years TSLA will go bankrupt, or bankrupt portfolios.   

[tbone_ 14,438]

Only if you transact at that price - just sayin'

I don’t agree with this oft used argument.

Value is value.

[Mo Horn 8,937]

Markets are fucked today

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge just moved in the wrong direction

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/26/economy/pce-inflation-spending-march