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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11532

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

>>>$3tn market cap.     

It’s really going to hurt when some air comes out of this thing.

thats not a bash on nvidia or AI.  But this run is silly.  And no I’m not stepping in front of this bus

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BearSchlong

BearSchlong 8076

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It’s really going to hurt when some air comes out of this thing.
thats not a bash on nvidia or AI.  But this run is silly.  And no I’m not stepping in front of this bus

I doubled my position yesterday in anticipation of next week’s split bounce. I'm already up a LOT from my original entry point so time will tell if it was a good call.
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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 17875

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2 hours ago, bernorange said:

 

How does that compare to previous years? I'm sure it's at an all time high but it doesn't mean a lot without context.  The S&P 500 has always been about 80% of the total stock market returns while the bottom 3,000+ companies drag down the market.

 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

How does that compare to previous years? I'm sure it's at an all time high but it doesn't mean a lot without context.  The S&P 500 has always been about 80% of the total stock market returns while the bottom 3,000+ companies drag down the market.

 

It's saying that the top 10 stocks comprise 74% of the total return of the S&P 500.  Meaning the next 490 of the 500 largest companies in America only comprise 26% of the return of the S&P 500.  Adding in your data, the top 10 largest companies account for 59.2% of the entire returns of the market.   That's not healthy.  

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Captainant

Captainant 27311

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44 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It's saying that the top 10 stocks comprise 74% of the total return of the S&P 500.  Meaning the next 490 of the 500 largest companies in America only comprise 26% of the return of the S&P 500.  Adding in your data, the top 10 largest companies account for 59.2% of the entire returns of the market.   That's not healthy.  

It's almost like we've been asleep at the wheel and negligent in enforcing century-old antitrust laws to allow consolidation to happen at this scale. But hey at least 401ks are doing good, or something 

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bernorange

bernorange 8346

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FWIW:

Quote

... Consider General Electric Co. (GE), which was one of the non-tech darlings of the late 1990s. Jack Welch, who was regarded as the superstar CEO of the day, demanded that division managers become either No. 1 or 2 in their business lines. If it failed to achieve those goals, the division was either shut down or sold.

Division managers who couldn't make the numbers tried the old trick of financialization: GE would lend a customer money to buy its products and round-tripped the funds to inflate sales. The maneuver worked so well that GE Capital was born. GE Capital, in its efforts to achieve top-two status in its industry, lent to anything that moved. It wasn't just aircraft engines, but emerging-market loans and subprime mortgages. GE Capital became bigger than the industrial divisions of the company and eventually blew up; GE CEO Jeff Immelt announced the divestment of GE Capital in 2014, and eventually its parts were sold off over the next two years.

Today's tech giants are buying equity in companies and round-tripping the funds to boost sales.

It's happening again. Instead of vendor financing, today's tech giants are buying equity in companies and round-tripping the funds to boost sales. Amazon.com Inc.'s (AMZN) investment in Anthropic and Nvidia's investment in CoreWeave are just two of the most visible examples of financialization. ...

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240302292/nvidia-and-other-ai-fueled-tech-stocks-are-heading-for-a-magnificent-exuberance-bubble

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

It's almost like we've been asleep at the wheel and negligent in enforcing century-old antitrust laws to allow consolidation to happen at this scale. But hey at least 401ks are doing good, or something 

A lot of this has nothing to do with antitrust either.  You have old growth/blue chip Tech companies like MSFT trading at 43 forward, like a mid stage explosive growth company, due to AI and other things.  The very shit their soon to be revenues is built on is the same shit that will eat their revenues for breakfast, shit them out at lunch, and burn the carcass at dinner.  

 

These companies are under so many different anti-trust lawsuits all the time.  They're actually creating new and important technology, but it's technology that will ultimately kill them.  New technology = multiples of grandeur though.  That's where we're at.  

 

 But we know your socialist/communist heart of hearts cums on itself when you can pile on big bad capitalism.  I"m sure your Russo-Sino authoritarian fantasy will work out at some point in the future, after it's failed another 7000 times.  

Edited by Trey3216
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

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I think a lot of large corporations have financing operations - all the automakers did, expanded into other things like mortgages and went to shit; pretty sure that heavy equipment companies like CAT, Deere, Komanstu, etc; Boeing & Airbus will finance, not sure why this is any surprise. And to point out that tech companies are investing down the supply chain, is very Japanese of them. 
But when the shit hits the fan, one bad player (over leveraged, too concentrated customer base, susceptible to even newer technologies  will bring a number of inter-related enterprises along with them. 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11532

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34 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

But we know your socialist/communist heart of hearts cums on itself when you can pile on big bad capitalism.  I"m sure your Russo-Sino authoritarian fantasy will work out at some point in the future, after it's failed another 7000 times.

Spot On Van Gerwen GIF by VNOM Technisch Uitzendbureau | We get the job done

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Captainant

Captainant 27311

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51 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

A lot of this has nothing to do with antitrust either.  You have old growth/blue chip Tech companies like MSFT trading at 43 forward, like a mid stage explosive growth company, due to AI and other things.  The very shit their soon to be revenues is built on is the same shit that will eat their revenues for breakfast, shit them out at lunch, and burn the carcass at dinner

Much of that growth is directly attributable to acquisitions by MSFT, not from creations of their own. Their growth is like a mid stage company because they're buying them up lol. Their recent surge was piggybacking on openAI, for example. 

IMO, LLMs aren't gonna have as much staying power as the board rooms of America think they do. The vast majority of enterprises I work with have no idea wtf they would even use them for, but they have to build something to satisfy their know-nothing board and investors. Businesses betting the farm on LLMs aren't gonna have smooth sailing, there's still a real lack of business usecase for most companies seeking it out and paying for it right now. 

55 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

But we know your socialist/communist heart of hearts cums on itself when you can pile on big bad capitalism.  I"m sure your Russo-Sino authoritarian fantasy will work out at some point in the future, after it's failed another 7000 times.  

Again, the insistent repetition of your lie doesn't make it true. Having criticisms of reaganism and our system of oligopoly doesn't make me a commie. You and your buddies have repeated it to each other so much that y'all believe it now because """many people are saying"""

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11532

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Again, the insistent repetition of your lie doesn't make it true. Having criticisms of reaganism and our system of oligopoly doesn't make me a commie. You and your buddies have repeated it to each other so much that y'all believe it now because """many people are saying

Brady Bunch Jan GIF by MOODMAN

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

Posted
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5 hours ago, bernorange said:

 

Comparing to 2007, with a 3.5 % return is not meaningful. I'd bet 50% of the index components were losing value in H1. Hell Nvidia probably added more value this year than the entire index did in 2007.

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B00M

B00M 6278

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Hell Nvidia probably added more value this year than the entire index did in 2007.

There’s no way that’s a bubble! Nvidia is clearly the most valuable company on the planet! 

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Captainant

Captainant 27311

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35 minutes ago, B00M said:

There’s no way that’s a bubble! Nvidia is clearly the most valuable company on the planet! 

Nvidia has a crazy run right now between crypto and then pivoting right into AI. Granted, they're actually creating something new and genuinely pushing the boundaries of mathematics forward, but it's wild to see it capitalized so effectively 

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B00M

B00M 6278

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28 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Nvidia has a crazy run right now between crypto and then pivoting right into AI. Granted, they're actually creating something new and genuinely pushing the boundaries of mathematics forward, but it's wild to see it capitalized so effectively 

I’m feeling uplifted and almost encouraged by .. capitalism*?! We gotta beat China to general/weaponized AI — is buying more NVIDIA our only hope?! 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

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11 hours ago, B00M said:

I’m feeling uplifted and almost encouraged by .. capitalism*?! We gotta beat China to general/weaponized AI — is buying more NVIDIA our only hope?! 

Help me Obi-Taiwan Kenobi.  You're our only hope  

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5270

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Posted (edited)

^^

Very recently, he stuck with his year-end target of 4200 for the S&P, which would require a >20% selloff in H2. By comparison, the 2nd lowest target put out by any other firm is 5200.

At some point, if you just keep doubling down on "sell, sell, sell, recession coming" while markets continue making daily ATH's, no one takes you seriously and you may need to "explore other opportunities" (wink wink).

In other words, he's an ideal Surly poster.

Edited by Storm the Field
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

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7 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

^^

Very recently, he stuck with his year-end target of 4200 for the S&P, which would require a >20% selloff in H2. By comparison, the 2nd lowest target put out by any other firm is 5200.

At some point, if you just keep doubling down on "sell, sell, sell, recession coming" while markets continue making daily ATH's, no one takes you seriously and you may need to "explore other opportunities" (wink wink).

In other words, he's an ideal Surly poster.

At some point, the market will reach a point and with this run up, we’ll have a 50+% meltdown, because it ain’t gonna stay this way forever.  

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52-80

52-80 19066

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Posted

These numbers never matter. If these banks dont actually trade on these numbers, neither should anyone else. 

When these analysts/strategists publish these targets, its only to serve as marketing fodder and brand reinforcement to advertise their thinking process.

Same shit with management consulting blog posts, briefs, and white papers. Its shallow…and pedantic 

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