Markets still falling like whoa

[Hefeweizen 5307]

4 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Berkshire sold basically half their stake in AAPL.  DAMN 

Yeah and trimming back banks.  If you didn’t think there were enough recession signals before…

[swraith 336]

5 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Berkshire sold basically half their stake in AAPL.  DAMN 

Did they just shift to a cash holding or was it rotated to other equity investments?

Edited August 3 by swraith

[Trey3216 15325]

2 hours ago, swraith said:

Did they just shift to a cash holding or was it rotated to other equity investments?

If they’re shifting out of big banks as well, then likely cash.  Didn’t see anything about where the money went.   
 

[txduck87 981]

If they’re shifting out of big banks as well, then likely cash.  Didn’t see anything about where the money went.   
 

[KYHorn 16808]

 

[tbone_ 14020]

 

How much has the fed trimmed since QE ended?

[UTGrad98 2257]

Not a great Monday opening overseas. And that after their 5% selloff Friday

[Incredulity 11532]

1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

Not a great Monday opening overseas. And that after their 5% selloff Friday

[hornbri 1367]

Ouch, looking like a red monday. 

 

[Parliament 14112]

Things not going well in Japan.

[Trey3216 15325]

58 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Things not going well in Japan.

Yep. Bloodbath 

[52-80 19066]

1 crypto market maker shut shop over the weekend and liquidated all their positions. Looks like their drawing down the market is cascading to other participants. 

VIX futures doing incredible things today. Up 60% so RIP short volatility guys. 

But hey…long treasury bonds been healthy 😮‍💨

[bluto 4873]

Sooo like is there any positive news stuffs to pull markets out of the nosedive or is this the great reckoning?

[52-80 19066]

60/40 or risk parity is finally doing its job for the first time in like... literal years.

[52-80 19066]

On 8/3/2024 at 7:39 PM, swraith said:

Did they just shift to a cash holding or was it rotated to other equity investments?

Berkshire always keeps a gigantic warchest. Their cash + short term treasuries (ie very liquid) are the same size as all their stock investments combined. Almost $300B each. 

Warren might go on a discount buying spree soon...

[52-80 19066]

Fun stuff to watch: whether the dept of treasury's financial stress index reaches positive, which defines a state of "stress".  The index is constituted from the 5 colored categories below, 4 of which is starting to get tested.

 

 

And then this is the leverage amount of the 2000+ qualifying hedge funds, which are $150M+ in size.  Higher leverage means stronger amplification of market moves i.e. accelerates volatility

[Mo Horn 8795]

Looks like it's going to be ugly again today

[Parliament 14112]

4 hours ago, bluto said:

Sooo like is there any positive news stuffs to pull markets out of the nosedive or is this the great reckoning?

Maybe we can get some Brrrrrrt out of this?

[squib 1120]

27 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Looks like it's going to be ugly again today

I’ll be glad if the ugly is confined to today. Not optimistic about that. 

[52-80 19066]

my short position on nvda is starting to approach flat after getting stomped squarely in the dick for a couple of months 🥴

[4th and 5 4910]

Whoa

[hornbri 1367]

Quote

Here's where U.S. stock market futures stand at the moment:

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 1,183 points, or 3%, following a 611-point loss on Friday.

S&P 500 futures are down 4.4% after the benchmark lost 1.8% on Friday.

Nasdaq-100 futures lost 5.9% as big tech stocks got hit hard in early trading.

This is going to suck 

[Mo Horn 8795]

I guess the only bright side is that interest rates will definitely go down next month, and probably again before the end of the year. The question is, how quickly will the market recover back to the recent highs?

[UTGrad98 2257]

200 day moving average for SPY is right at 500. Did not think we would get here so fast. If it goes below 500 and closes below 500 in the next few days, look out below.  450 and 440 are in play

[Hefeweizen 5307]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

my short position on nvda is starting to approach flat after getting stomped squarely in the dick for a couple of months 🥴

I think you’re about to be in the money!

[immamac 42492]

2 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

I guess the only bright side is that interest rates will definitely go down next month, and probably again before the end of the year. The question is, how quickly will the market recover back to the recent highs?

Powell doesn't give a shit what happens to the market. He cares what happens to GDP unemployment and inflation. 

Stocks crashing could be a sign that GDP will dip and unemployment will rise, but the speculative prices are so disconnected from reality that it doesn't have a direct impact. 

[Captainant 27311]

Just now, immamac said:

Stocks crashing could be a sign that GDP will dip and unemployment will rise, but the speculative prices are so disconnected from reality that it doesn't have a direct impact. 

Gonna be interesting to see what a bunch of finance departments do when line stops going up. Seems like the speculation fever is starting to break

[Hefeweizen 5307]

Time for stock buybacks!  Got to pump it somehow.

[Mo Horn 8795]

2 minutes ago, immamac said:

Powell doesn't give a shit what happens to the market. He cares what happens to GDP unemployment and inflation. 

Stocks crashing could be a sign that GDP will dip and unemployment will rise, but the speculative prices are so disconnected from reality that it doesn't have a direct impact. 

Fair, but my predictions stand

[immamac 42492]

Just now, Mo Horn said:

Fair, but my predictions stand

I think they actually have wanted a crash for a while, just like many economists. It's healthy. Lots of things have been outperforming for no reason lately. 

[52-80 19066]

5 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I think you’re about to be in the money!

LFG ! 🦬🦬🦬

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

Wouldn’t shock me if the market ends up positive by the end of the day. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

So don’t cash out 401k?

[UTGrad98 2257]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Wouldn’t shock me if the market ends up positive by the end of the day. 

I think we bounce off the 200 day moving average.  Stocks don't just fall straight down. And Japan has been following our moves from the day before the last 2 sessions. 

[52-80 19066]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Wouldn’t shock me if the market ends up positive by the end of the day. 

global indices are all red so there may be too much of a downward cascading effect

[immamac 42492]

5 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I think we bounce off the 200 day moving average.  Stocks don't just fall straight down. And Japan has been following our moves from the day before the last 2 sessions. 

Who's gonna tell him? 

[52-80 19066]

schwab app has technical error right now - cant log on (its been happening quite frequently recently). 

matt levine has a funny bit about how during market distress, people who cant access their account fare off well because it prevents them from panic selling

[Parliament 14112]

24 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Wouldn’t shock me if the market ends up positive by the end of the day. 

What are you smoking?!

Can I have some?

[52-80 19066]

if the markets' circuit breakers were signaled by a real life guy

[UTGrad98 2257]

Pretty good bounce off of spy 510 so far. 

[52-80 19066]

Just now, UTGrad98 said:

Pretty good bounce off of spy 510 so far. 

if it keeps going, we all owe Eddie a beer

[squib 1120]

I’m less worried about where today ends than I am where August ends. 

[UTGrad98 2257]

2 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

if it keeps going, we all owe Eddie a beer

Yea 508 was the -10% from all.time high resistance level and I think it hit that in premarket trading. Damn premarket, always gets the cool stuff. 

[Incredulity 11532]

Can’t login to Schwab

what a joke.  Supposedly Fidelity is down too

[hornmpa96 2598]

Which are the strong companies getting trashed today?

I just sold some puts on META and PFE this morning.

Can anyone explain why large cap oil and gas midstream companies are down 3% as a group? Are we really going to use less energy in the next 5 years?

 

[immamac 42492]

1 minute ago, hornmpa96 said:

Which are the strong companies getting trashed today?

I just sold some puts on META and PFE this morning.

Can anyone explain why large cap oil and gas midstream companies are down 3% as a group? Are we really going to use less energy in the next 5 years?

 

Stock market has nothing to do with 5 years from now. 

Dead cat bounces everywhere another "soft halt" from the brokerages. I think after citadel and Robinhood decided it was okay to break your trading product to prevent selloffs brokerages are just doing it on purpose. 

[hornmpa96 2598]

2 minutes ago, immamac said:

Stock market has nothing to do with 5 years from now. 

That’s why I believe there is money to made on days like today. The markets are efficient but only on the longer term.

[Captainant 27311]

4 minutes ago, immamac said:

I think after citadel and Robinhood got away with breaking their trading product to prevent selloffs brokerages are just doing it on purpose. 

FTFY

[WBT 20397]

S&P 500 up 1% since the open.  LFG!

[52-80 19066]

31 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Which are the strong companies getting trashed today?

All of them. Lol.

Old economy is looking nice.

Altria prints a fat fucking net margin at a 4x revenue multiple. Coke does a steady 25% margin against steady growth at 6x valuation. 

Both at a slight discount today.