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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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52-80

52-80 18982

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, hornbri said:

Starting to see lots of stories that this is a result of the unwinding of Yen Carry trades and that is the biggest driver right now. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/carry-trades-a-major-unwinding-is-underway-amid-a-stock-sell-off.html?__source=iosappshare|com.google.chrome.ios.OpenExtension

Are you saying that the Js did this?!?

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52-80

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Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Mother mopar said:
31 minutes ago, Margin call said:
Looks like we’ve bottomed. 
 
 
 

Anybody who listens that to that asshat blowhard deserves what they get. Such a fraud.

hes very useful.  hes even more reliably-inverse than scott galloway

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2210

Posted
Posted

Someone please explain. What Im not understanding is how the VIX could get to 65 today and close at 38, something it hasnt done since 2020 pandemic and before that times like the dot com bust and great recession. It doesnt make any sense. Another thing that doesnt make much sense is how Japan's stock market can lose 17% in 2 days including 12% in 1 day. Is it all because of this "carry trade" and the BOJ raising rates 25 basis points? Or the fact that the Fed chose NOT to lower interest rates by a quarter point 4 days ago? Those take 9-12 months to take effect anyway. These dont seem like fear inducing catalysts to me. What am I missing here? The global markets were frothy and we are getting rid of some of that froth. Seems pretty standard. Why so much fear? Ill hang up and listen.

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52-80

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Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Someone please explain. What Im not understanding is how the VIX could get to 65 today and close at 38, something it hasnt done since 2020 pandemic and before that times like the dot com bust and great recession. It doesnt make any sense.

VIX can fluctuate more wildly than equities because its a virtual calculation based on a basket of options (of SPX with ~30d expiry) thats much lower in volume and liquidity than underlying stocks. And especially the high print of 65+ today was during pre/early trading sessions, so its deriving options prices from an even thinner market.

Once the equities market started to stabilize, the crazy premium for those SPX options eroded.  Open options contracts could be sold-to-close and erased from market entirely.  Unlike stocks theres no bottom to the price (such as equity book value) or ceiling to the price (some quasi realistic future cash flow prediction), so the SPX options prices could be all over the place, and hence the derived VIX values all over the place.

FWIW VIX 38 implies SPX daily move of 2.4% so its far from a quiet market.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15308

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Panic with the unwinding of the Yen/Dollar carry trade. Fucking hedge funds. 

The biggest player in the Yen carry trade is the Japanese government, and Japanese Corporations are next in line.  

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8 hours ago, Margin call said:

Contrarian take here. Podcast co host is Longhorn. 
 

 

 

He's a fake Longhorn.  Nobody who set foot in Texas would dare to hold a fork like that eating a steak

image.thumb.jpeg.b039bcd8170b0ef9ad26dcb74115654b.jpeg

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52-80

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Posted

everybody recognizes ryanair as a dirt-cheap bargain-basement airline... but its still hilarious how their investor material reflects that reputation.

their earnings slides are formatted informally with random bulletpoint styles exactly like a low-level deck in corporate america.

the earnings letter has a finance table that looks like an raw working excel book thats never meant to be shown to management of any level

https://investor.ryanair.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Q1-FY25-Ryanair-Results.pdf

image.thumb.png.7161ded4c66ab5d1b3f4ade9de537a65.png

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13295

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

everybody recognizes ryanair as a dirt-cheap bargain-basement airline... but its still hilarious how their investor material reflects that reputation.

their earnings slides are formatted informally with random bulletpoint styles exactly like a low-level deck in corporate america.

the earnings letter has a finance table that looks like an raw working excel book thats never meant to be shown to management of any level

https://investor.ryanair.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Q1-FY25-Ryanair-Results.pdf

image.thumb.png.7161ded4c66ab5d1b3f4ade9de537a65.png

 

It can give an impression that they're not wasting resources/time/money on making investors happy about polished material.

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Posted
3 hours ago, Chet Steadman said:

I love OddLots but when McGellicott speaks I’m not even certain half the words he’s using are in English.  

Hes one of the worst in a finance niche thats already known for deliberate obfuscation by jargon. 

“We observed the skew kept staying bid” . You mean you saw high demand for put options. 

“There was a persistent positive spot-vol correlation”. You mean options prices got more expensive as the stock prices went higher….

Utter pretense

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RMac5

RMac5 1546

Posted
Posted
On 8/6/2024 at 10:27 AM, 4th and 5 said:

all green today

AMAT

COST

LRCX

MCK

NVDA

QCOM

SPMO

VOO

How long have you owned that MCK? Shits been crazy this past year. I have been there 32 years, I’m responsible for that growth, you owe me a beer :)

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4th and 5

4th and 5 4903

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, RMac5 said:

How long have you owned that MCK? Shits been crazy this past year. I have been there 32 years, I’m responsible for that growth, you owe me a beer :)

Up today, then down 7.4% after hours today, what did you screw up?

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RMac5

RMac5 1546

Posted
Posted

Story of my life, it’s up about 40 something % in the past year. I screw errrthing up. Just a dumb sales rep. I’m on the med/surg supply side. I have zero to do with the mothership.

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5221

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WBT said:

And we finish the week down 0.045%.  Such crash, much wow!

Yeah that was a ton of action that ended up where it started.  We were so close to having all the experts in Yen carry trade explaining things too!

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Henry Hill

Henry Hill 3156

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

it's in the title.

on that topic, anyone recall the whoa that was the OG whoa in shag/surl history?  does it go back to 08/09?

Pretty sure it was in the 1920s. ArmyBrat had just recently retired and aggy football had the hype of becoming a football powerhouse. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15308

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Henry Hill said:

Pretty sure it was in the 1920s. ArmyBrat had just recently retired and aggy football had the hype of becoming a football powerhouse. 

Pretty sure he has share certificates 100-199 of the British East India Company in his seagoing trunk.  

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5490

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Pretty sure he has share certificates 100-199 of the British East India Company in his seagoing trunk.  

I thought he had Hudson Bay Company certificate #11, bought 500 shares when he was in an outpost buying beaver pelts. Or was that selling beaver pelts?

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13295

Posted
Posted

Starbucks fired their 1-year tenure CEO this morning. Replaced him with the Chipotle CEO. SBUX up 23%

I've actually rediscovered Starbucks as an ok coffee shop again over the past 6 months. I can actually find a place to park and even sit if I want to for a few minutes. I had previously stopped going when it turned into a 15+ minute wait for my order. When driving to work, I can't have that long of a wait.

While I like that as a customer, that must not be good for the bottom line.

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