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Markets still falling like whoa


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Well I definitely should have bailed more on my PLTR. BUT my UVIX has been offsetting the losses on my remaining shares.  I can't decide if I sell it all and eat a big cap gain.  Or hold and risk potentially watching the need for Cap gain taxes slowly erode?  I am sort of thinking thought I love PLTR long term, I have seen it ride high then collapse as well.  Look like the momentum is against it now.  And that's not a good place to be on a high multiple like PLTR.  I want to hold, but when I see UVIX surge, and PLTR wane...  

I am starting to wonder where the good news is gonna come in the next few weeks?  We will have by this time next week a slew of Executive Orders that will be difficult for the market to digest with any certainty.  We are going to see confirmation of some of the least qualified political appointees this country has ever seen. (IMHO at least on paper)The average American won't even realize this, but the big hitters in the market will.  My only question in my head is whether there is enough financial exuberance from the Republican investor side to overcome the instability and unpredictability directly in front of us?  I think taking losses, is where the rubber will hit the road on this exuberance surrounding deregulation, and lower taxes.  IF it becomes clear that the Trump Bump, is actually the Trump Slump?  Yikes!

So financially we have unpredictability in the market mainly among inflation concerns, in large part because of lofty evaluation risk.  We are going to see a confirmation of what I think most everyone would call disrupters at most positions.  Then we are supposedly going to get the "mother of all reconciliation bills!"  Which I fear the market will see as the largest deficit producing legislation this country has ever seen.  Which I in turn, would assume will add to inflation fears?  Or will the certainty of a single monster bill be viewed as a positive by the market?  A single large bill might be a debt buster, but also might give the market a better look at future predictability? 

Anyhow a very unpredictable and skittish market right now.  When my hedge is moving toward becoming my big dog, I wonder if my hedge isn't actually where I should be moving more and more of my chips? 

My big fuck up. last week was not buying WBA options (walgreens) after their epic beatdown, before they announced earnings.  As well as not trimming my PLTR position more and adding even more to UVIX.  I added a little more UVIX.  But I can't decide if I should move complete to risk on?  Seems like that's where things are drifting right now?

 

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Well when you guys figure out how to eliminate the "IF" from market prediction statements please let me know!  

Instead perhaps I should be asking how many of you guys have fairly large hedges against the market right now.  I am considering betting strongly against the market and paying a big cap gain bill to do so.  So "if" you guys can help me eliminate those pesky "ifs" out of my forward looking analysis, that would be particularly helpful. 😉

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8 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Well when you guys figure out how to eliminate the "IF" from market prediction statements please let me know!  

Instead perhaps I should be asking how many of you guys have fairly large hedges against the market right now.  I am considering betting strongly against the market and paying a big cap gain bill to do so.  So "if" you guys can help me eliminate those pesky "ifs" out of my forward looking analysis, that would be particularly helpful. 😉

There will a ton fewer "ifs" after January 20th. That is the origin point of the the uncertainty, we really don't know what was lies and what was truth. 

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Just now, Captainant said:

There will a ton fewer "ifs" after January 20th. That is the origin point of the the uncertainty, we really don't know what was lies and what was truth. 

I don't complete disagree, but what will we know on the 21st-30th?.  My point is uncertainty does not normally bring additional dollars into the market.  As every trade in the market is the result of two people both feeling that the exact opposite outcome is more likely than not.  And they want to bet on it!!!  If... I think January 20th will not bring much clarity at all.  I think it will bring a slew of executive orders not unlike a firehose.  Which I think is going to be difficult for the market to digest as well.  (my own personal opinion is the markets will react negatively to this additional lack of clarity).

I view January 20th as more a point of clarity, about how very, very difficult it's going to be at least in the short term for most investors to feel the upside "if" is more risk than the downside "if?" My perspective is that we may not actually have much true clarity until March?  And I see that as downward rather than upward pressure.  AGAIN the one factor I wish I knew more than anything is how much sideline money will view January 20th as an inflection point to come into the market? Do investors view the 20th as a point of clarity?  IF so the market should move upward if the clarity is good.  But the two scenarios of negative clarity, or continued uncertainty are both negatives.  Sort of the Darrell Royal of throwing a pass, where you have to weigh the interception and incomplete, against the completion.  Two things are bad.

When the clarity comes, the predictability will come.  I just think we are in for a period of greater uncertainty than normal, and I don't see real clarity for another 60 days if it's positive clarity. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, horn4life said:

Well when you guys figure out how to eliminate the "IF" from market prediction statements please let me know!  

Instead perhaps I should be asking how many of you guys have fairly large hedges against the market right now.  I am considering betting strongly against the market and paying a big cap gain bill to do so.  So "if" you guys can help me eliminate those pesky "ifs" out of my forward looking analysis, that would be particularly helpful. 😉

I have some SPY puts that I bought as a hedge against about 60% of my portfolio. I'm not looking to sell my SPY shares, but if they're is value in them I'll sell the options. And that's pretty of the tricky park is when you sell. I have both 3/31 and 6/30 expiry

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25 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I have some SPY puts that I bought as a hedge against about 60% of my portfolio. I'm not looking to sell my SPY shares, but if they're is value in them I'll sell the options. And that's pretty of the tricky park is when you sell. I have both 3/31 and 6/30 expiry

Tricky Park.  Is that Linkin Park's less shitty brother?  

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