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Posted

Next week is going to be extra entertaining.  If the tariffs go into effect I predict the 10 year will jump and we’re going to see a sea of red.  But TSLA will jump up 20 percent because reasons.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Next week is going to be extra entertaining.  If the tariffs go into effect I predict the 10 year will jump and we’re going to see a sea of red.  But TSLA will jump up 20 percent because reasons.

It's wild, the only thing that kept their balance sheet black was a mark to market valuation of Bitcoin. Totally a normal and healthy financial posture backed by stable instruments

Posted

Guessing the markets bet this is just short term noise, with the assumption being each country will negotiate a “resolution” with minimal impact on anyone. Just a bunch of posturing.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Lurch said:

Guessing the markets bet this is just short term noise, with the assumption being each country will negotiate a “resolution” with minimal impact on anyone. Just a bunch of posturing.

I believe the administration. We are in for some short term pain. I bet Bessent got drunk as fuck Friday evening. 

Posted
13 hours ago, Mother mopar said:

It only hurts once, then your numb to it. 

It doesn’t hurt once you have no fingers…

 

Futures aren’t going to tell the story of the week.  Psychology of the market is headed very bearish now.  

Posted (edited)

As noted investor Warren Buffett said: 

“Buy the dip, pussy”

So I’m liquid, but I might lose my nerve and just buy a bond or something. 🤷‍♂️

Edited by Bateshorn
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Posted
3 hours ago, Party_Taco said:

Anyone else looking to unload a few positions tomorrow AM? I don’t think this shitshow resolves itself anytime soon…

I'll be trimming some positions to move into SP index over the next few days. 

Posted

Well looking at the holding sell off in pre-market, looks like the market may shrug the tariffs off as temporary?  Or assumption is they will not stay in place? I would think there would need to be a carve out for US Automakers.  Otherwise you may be adding as much as $3000 to a GM or Ford, in the supply chain.  Good for Tesla I guess to offset EV credits, but unsustainable for the US manufacturers.  So I do not see the tariffs as anything but posturing.  But I also do not see how politically Trump cannot keep at least some inflationary tariffs in place politically.  

HERE IS MY QUESTION - What, if any, stickiness will there be to prices "temporarily" inflated from tariffs?  

two year +.04, ten year -.03, thirty year -.05

Posted

im not planning to meaningfully add long equities for this and next month.  but shorting vol when blips like these occur.  also the tariffs news have been great for natural gas / commodities.  thank u tariff jesus.

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Posted
1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

The market is pissing me off today.  The one stock that I want to see drop (Meta) is holding pretty strong today.  That means less RSUs for me

Don't worry it'll take a dump the day after the shares mature and you're assesed taxes on them, same as it ever was

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Posted

I like this play with the US economy like a toy game we have going on now.  Thank God Trump inherited such a strong economy, or this sort of shit would go really bad. 

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Posted
Guessing the markets bet this is just short term noise, with the assumption being each country will negotiate a “resolution” with minimal impact on anyone. Just a bunch of posturing.

What probably happened w Mexico
Posted

Lord Christ Palantir just hit $100 in afterhours trading for a $230B valuation from a <$1B sales quarter with <$100M of net income. 

All growth trajectory yes but you gotta extend that trajectory forever 

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Posted
37 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Lord Christ Palantir just hit $100 in afterhours trading for a $230B valuation from a <$1B sales quarter with <$100M of net income. 

All growth trajectory yes but you gotta extend that trajectory forever 

575 multiple too rich?

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Posted
24 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

575 multiple too rich?

Guess people are baking in expectation of hitting the hockey stick curve. Its still just a linear ramp for now. 
Their slides are some of the ugliest ive seen. Also, yes, im sour for having sold out in the 20s and 30s. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Incredulity said:

575 multiple too rich?

Not for dinner tonight!  My play with Palantir is that is has been working AI in some of the most necessarily secure environments there are.  So I think that corporate clients will not question the reliability and hack proof(?) software package.  I've been bleeding with my Uvix hedge to some degree.  But it was to get to this earnings.  I actually bailed a little bit and retrenched when it and Uvix were both dumping  

3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Guess people are baking in expectation of hitting the hockey stick curve. Its still just a linear ramp for now. 
Their slides are some of the ugliest ive seen. Also, yes, im sour for having sold out in the 20s and 30s. 

I dumped a bunch a $64.50ish near the bottom middle of the month from this particular memory... 

This is our risky account.  I assume there will be short covering by retail investors in the AM.  Big beat.  Glad I was on the right side of it.

Edited by horn4life
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Posted
On 2/1/2025 at 6:54 PM, Lurch said:

Guessing the markets bet this is just short term noise, with the assumption being each country will negotiate a “resolution” with minimal impact on anyone. Just a bunch of posturing.

 

giphy (1) (17).gif

Posted
8 hours ago, horn4life said:

Not for dinner tonight!  My play with Palantir is that is has been working AI in some of the most necessarily secure environments there are.  So I think that corporate clients will not question the reliability and hack proof(?) software package.

People might not know that Palantir also does generic tech consulting with their software tooling. They're working with one group in my company to do some basic data management and analysis -- has nothing to do with national security / defense / etc. 

But still, including that potential market,  with expected FY2025 US Commercial rev of $1B their valuation is wild.  Bottom is measure of profitability growth


image.thumb.png.8ee18b9d9b26307ba11574896d0ba959.png

Posted
1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

People might not know that Palantir also does generic tech consulting with their software tooling. They're working with one group in my company to do some basic data management and analysis -- has nothing to do with national security / defense / etc. 

But still, including that potential market,  with expected FY2025 US Commercial rev of $1B their valuation is wild.  Bottom is measure of profitability growth


image.thumb.png.8ee18b9d9b26307ba11574896d0ba959.png

It's fucking crazy I know.  Like crack.  

Posted
17 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Lord Christ Palantir just hit $100 in afterhours trading for a $230B valuation from a <$1B sales quarter with <$100M of net income. 

All growth trajectory yes but you gotta extend that trajectory forever 

In 2021 I was deep in a recruiting cycle with palantir and I ultimately bailed out of it because I didn’t like how heavy they were in academia and public sector. I didn’t think the ceiling could be high enough and the pay was on the conservative side of the spectrum (remember, this was pre-interest rates and inflation still in the ZIRP era). I passed on what surely would have been a healthy 7 figure equity/RSU comp plan today.

you just never know :(

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

In 2021 I was deep in a recruiting cycle with palantir and I ultimately bailed out of it because I didn’t like how heavy they were in academia and public sector. I didn’t think the ceiling could be high enough and the pay was on the conservative side of the spectrum (remember, this was pre-interest rates and inflation still in the ZIRP era). I passed on what surely would have been a healthy 7 figure equity/RSU comp plan today.

you just never know :(

To be fair their cieling is still the same. The market is completely irrational. 

Posted
25 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

In 2021 I was deep in a recruiting cycle with palantir and I ultimately bailed out of it because I didn’t like how heavy they were in academia and public sector. I didn’t think the ceiling could be high enough and the pay was on the conservative side of the spectrum (remember, this was pre-interest rates and inflation still in the ZIRP era). I passed on what surely would have been a healthy 7 figure equity/RSU comp plan today.

you just never know :(

If it's any consolation I could have been PC's Limited employee number 128...  But I would be on my 3rd or 4th wife by now.... so there's that!

 

Posted
7 minutes ago, Blotto said:

anyone got a good 3X leveraged Defense Industry ETF they can recommend? 5X would even be better. Pew, pew, pew

I think that DFEN is the ticker that you are looking for. 

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Posted
17 hours ago, Blotto said:

anyone got a good 3X leveraged Defense Industry ETF they can recommend? 5X would even be better. Pew, pew, pew

 

17 hours ago, Anastasis said:

I think that DFEN is the ticker that you are looking for. 

Seems reasonable 

Quote

Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares

The Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index. There is no guarantee the fund will achieve its stated investment objective.

Investing in a Direxion Shares ETF may be more volatile than investing in broadly diversified funds. The use of leverage by the Fund increases the risk to the Fund. The Direxion Shares ETFs are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by sophisticated investors who understand leverage risk and the consequences of seeking daily leveraged investment results and intend to actively monitor and manage their investment.

DFEN

NAV (Net Asset Value)$33.25As of Feb 04, 2025
1 Day NAV change$-0.63(-1.87%)As of Feb 04, 2025
 
Daily Target+300%
Intra-day ValueDFEN.IV
Daily NAV$33.25
Daily Market Price$33.27
Expense Ratio
(gross/net %)
0.97 / 0.97*
Daily Volume133,229
Security Identifier25460E661
Inception Date
Quote

 

 

Screenshot2025-02-05182931.thumb.jpg.f78abfcd66de86523b32f0f745569448.jpg

 

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