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Posted
4 hours ago, B00M said:

Apparently, some Americans are importing a fuck load of gold, purely for investment, not production, so it gets excluded from GDP. $31B in gold imports in January, up from $1.7B monthly average in 2022 and 2023. I think the main motivation is the assumption that Trump will tariff precious metals too, but it could also be concerns about the dollar. In general, not a great sign for us plebeians.

Jamie Diamond brought back about 4$ billion recently .  If you have a 10% tariff on a commodity or a 20% tariff on a commodity, then the cost of that commodity goes up 10 ro 20%.  Diamond and J.P. Morgan think it's smarter to have your gold delivered for the cost of shipping.  Rather than the cost of shipping, plus 10 or 20% in a month. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/01/jpmorgan-gold-bullion-trump-tariffs. Article is a month old.  

 

3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Is there a consensus for what the large indexes will end up for the year now? I’m guessing 15% down.

If we are lucky... 

Posted
15 hours ago, Orale said:

Definitely capital protection for the time being. But I would like my nest egg to keep up with inflation while I become comfortable with the basics of investing and wait for this volatility to hopefully subside.  

How old are you and when will you need to touch any of the $$?

Posted
20 hours ago, horn4life said:

Jamie Diamond brought back about 4$ billion recently .  If you have a 10% tariff on a commodity or a 20% tariff on a commodity, then the cost of that commodity goes up 10 ro 20%.  Diamond and J.P. Morgan think it's smarter to have your gold delivered for the cost of shipping.  Rather than the cost of shipping, plus 10 or 20% in a month. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/01/jpmorgan-gold-bullion-trump-tariffs. Article is a month old.  

*Dustin

  • Haha 3
Posted

Guess I was free associating diamonds and gold.   But I bet some of his friends call him diamond... 😉

On thing I hadn't really thought about regarding tariffs wil be the effect on auto insurance.  insurance and housing have been some of the stickiest and worst drags on disposable income.  If the replacement parts now cost 25% more, what percentage of that cost is factored into your monthly premium?  I would assume the actual cost of parts is a fairly large component of the policy coverage?  Will large used car parts dealers (which Insurance uses a lot) bump their prices to match new parts costs increases?  Or not take that profit margin until they are forced to?  😉  If folks stop buying new cars, that will even further push up demand for a finite number of used car parts. Which all brings me to a stock that I can potentially take interest in betting on rising.  MP is the other one I have a small taste of right now.

LKQ - up 1.84% this last week,  and .46% on Friday's bloodbath.   WARNING - I have not done a lick of research on the stock beyond what I just searched for as I thought about used car parts.  Anyhow - if it when up on Friday I am going to add it to my watch list.  Could be completely unsound financially, but maybe worth taking a glance at?

Anyhow there will certainly be pressure on auto insurers to increase their premiums, to cover the inflated costs of replacement parts.  

Posted
53 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I’m 58.5 and may need it in another year.   Might be able to hang on until 62.  Thoughts?

In a somewhat similar situation, though likely not needing it as quick unless I have to take deep pay cuts to keep working, which does happen for people in my industry 55+.  My guy recommended we start getting some equity out of the market and into tax free municipal bonds.  Getting 4% tax free with the interest paid every 6 months.  We shifted from 100% stocks/funds to 60/40 stocks to bonds.  The interest dividends can be used to either reinvest or as tax free income to offset a hit to my salary while working age 55+.  I have no idea how sound this is, I'm just a dude with some money following his financial advisors advice, but I definitely have less anxiety not having all of my retirement nest egg tied to the stock market roller coaster right now.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
30 minutes ago, Goredho said:

In a somewhat similar situation, though likely not needing it as quick unless I have to take deep pay cuts to keep working, which does happen for people in my industry 55+.  My guy recommended we start getting some equity out of the market and into tax free municipal bonds.  Getting 4% tax free with the interest paid every 6 months.  We shifted from 100% stocks/funds to 60/40 stocks to bonds.  The interest dividends can be used to either reinvest or as tax free income to offset a hit to my salary while working age 55+.  I have no idea how sound this is, I'm just a dude with some money following his financial advisors advice, but I definitely have less anxiety not having all of my retirement nest egg tied to the stock market roller coaster right now.

One word of advice on financial advisors. Be 100% clear on how you (or anyone) is paying for those services. It can get very expensive paying 1% or higher for their services. There are options to pay a hourly rate with some advisors which is much lower.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

Looks like a good week to start drinking again.

Not if you bought NewsMax on this mornings issue!  And who said there wasn't a Trump trade anymore!

NMAX price at 10:45 AM $50.08, Up+40.08. or a nice little 400.80% uptick for the day.  If only there were options... 😉

or bought while I was typing.. well two minutes later up to $59.25...

 

Edited by horn4life
  • Rage+1 1
Posted
46 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Not if you bought NewsMax on this mornings issue!  And who said there wasn't a Trump trade anymore!

NMAX price at 10:45 AM $50.08, Up+40.08. or a nice little 400.80% uptick for the day.  If only there were options... 😉

or bought while I was typing.. well two minutes later up to $59.25...

 

IPO pump and dump has commenced.

  • Haha 1
Posted
19 hours ago, Goredho said:

In a somewhat similar situation, though likely not needing it as quick unless I have to take deep pay cuts to keep working, which does happen for people in my industry 55+.  My guy recommended we start getting some equity out of the market and into tax free municipal bonds.  Getting 4% tax free with the interest paid every 6 months.  We shifted from 100% stocks/funds to 60/40 stocks to bonds.  The interest dividends can be used to either reinvest or as tax free income to offset a hit to my salary while working age 55+.  I have no idea how sound this is, I'm just a dude with some money following his financial advisors advice, but I definitely have less anxiety not having all of my retirement nest egg tied to the stock market roller coaster right now.

Where do you think you can get 4% tax free municipals without significant risk?

Posted
4 hours ago, horn4life said:

Not if you bought NewsMax on this mornings issue!  And who said there wasn't a Trump trade anymore!

NMAX price at 10:45 AM $50.08, Up+40.08. or a nice little 400.80% uptick for the day.  If only there were options... 😉

or bought while I was typing.. well two minutes later up to $59.25...

 

Closed at 83 and now sporting close to an $8B marketcap on revenue of ~$150M. They cant offer puts on this bucket of shit fast enough. 

Posted
25 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Closed at 83 and now sporting close to an $8B marketcap on revenue of ~$150M. They cant offer puts on this bucket of shit fast enough. 

dangerous bet, going against State media. They might be the only folks with a broadcast license before long

Posted
3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

dangerous bet, going against State media. They might be the only folks with a broadcast license before long

Its market cap is ~2X that of DJT, which a lot of people are saying is the bestest media organization ever. Donnie wont like that. No, he wont. 

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