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Posted

I'm not here to cloak things up, but I don't think the tariffs themselves are what caused this meltdown and the correction after unveiling them didn't have to be a complete walkback to calm the market. 

The problem is this is stupid any way you look at it. It was stupid how it was announced, rolled out, picked, communicated, justified, any way you look at it it is completely and utterly stupid. Its completely devoid of any rational thought or basis in common global reality. It is stupid on such a profound level, no one knows what the fuck to think. 

When no one knows what to think, herd mentality is the most dangerous, and right now there's a mass exodus of both foreign and domestic dollars out of the market to get to something someone thinks is safe. 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, immamac said:

I'm not here to cloak things up, but I don't think the tariffs themselves are what caused this meltdown and the correction after unveiling them didn't have to be a complete walkback to calm the market. 

 


yes, they were a huge contributor because they were based on flawed math and probably generated by an LLM at the last minute with no serious person double checking their math. 

 

Trump tariffs based on massive error, conservative think tank says

 

Quote

“For example: Corinth and Veuger write that if the tariffs had been calculated correctly, with the same ultimate goals in mind but using the right kind of elasticity figure, the levy on a country like Vietnam would have been 12.2% and not 46%.

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Posted (edited)

What I'm looking at is if we hit Spy 490 and 480 in overnight trading or not. I just can't see us flying right through 20% without a bounce.

Edited by UTGrad98
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Posted
14 minutes ago, immamac said:

I'm not here to cloak things up, but I don't think the tariffs themselves are what caused this meltdown and the correction after unveiling them didn't have to be a complete walkback to calm the market. 

The problem is this is stupid any way you look at it. It was stupid how it was announced, rolled out, picked, communicated, justified, any way you look at it it is completely and utterly stupid. Its completely devoid of any rational thought or basis in common global reality. It is stupid on such a profound level, no one knows what the fuck to think. 

When no one knows what to think, herd mentality is the most dangerous, and right now there's a mass exodus of both foreign and domestic dollars out of the market to get to something someone thinks is safe. 

My theory is that the likelihood of a walkback and thus a bit of a reprieve, at least, from the market onslaught is less likely given what appears to be a far less likely ability for the tariff regime creators to proclaim even a totally invisible victory out of the mess they created. In other words, there appears to be no self-effacing way for them to claim even a small win. My apologies if this is for the cr. I forgot to look there, I'm in Europe at this time and about to pop a pill so I can get some sleep while the market weeps.

 

Posted

They can claim victory for any made up reason they want.  They're not going to get fact checked by maga and the media will probably mostly let it go to stop the pain. 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:


yes, they were a huge contributor because they were based on flawed math and probably generated by an LLM at the last minute with no serious person double checking their math. 

 

Trump tariffs based on massive error, conservative think tank says

 

 

 

10 minutes ago, Chopper said:

My theory is that the likelihood of a walkback and thus a bit of a reprieve, at least, from the market onslaught is less likely given what appears to be a far less likely ability for the tariff regime creators to proclaim even a totally invisible victory out of the mess they created. In other words, there appears to be no self-effacing way for them to claim even a small win. My apologies if this is for the cr. I forgot to look there, I'm in Europe at this time and about to pop a pill so I can get some sleep while the market weeps.

 

Correct, its so stupid there's a no way out and they've chosen to triple and quadruple down against the advice of everyone willing to give them a pass for the stupidity. Seriously, everyone keeps understating or not fully grasping the stupidity of this, it almost needs a new word, because something this stupid has never actually happened in the modern world. 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

If Elon has his way, we're definitely getting to 420 at some point. 

image.thumb.png.b654890ba5432cc92b4ebecc0c4e5f6d.png

The SV bros are bullish!

The Main Street bros, not so much:

image.thumb.png.001408bfb8ab27d5fbe7dfee3a6069c0.png

 

We've been winklevossed

image.thumb.png.802185ef547e843154ee8218f244b780.png

 

Posted

Aaaaaaaaaaand cancelled....

Ill see where we are tomorrow morning. Futures flew right on by my limit order 5 minutes after opening.  Its really no man's land after the 20% drop. Just throw a dart, or be in the know. If we are still around 480 SPY when the market opens Ill put some money in but not as much as I was going to. This is some Covid level selling. Just day after day of 5% drops. And overnight futures were crushed. Same thing now.

Posted

Lutnick, Bessent, the Aggy mouth breather ag Secretary: none of them provided any comfort this morning. Did more harm than good.
 

All the while the president was winning the club championship in golf. Ridiculous 5 day stretch in the world/market caused by 1 person. 

Posted

Hard to believe that much money will be pushed in hoping to buy the dip. Seems less risky to keep sitting on the sidelines. Obviously for every sale there is effectively a buyer but I have to wonder if the courageous buyers are going to disappear tomorrow.

Posted

I’m 42. I don’t really manage my 401k, just put it in the 2040 retirement bucket. Tomorrow is not the day to start managing it and move everything to a money market, right?  I’ve already got the losses and would just risk missing when things move back up. Right?…

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Posted
3 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

I’m 42. I don’t really manage my 401k, just put it in the 2040 retirement bucket. Tomorrow is not the day to start managing it and move everything to a money market, right?  I’ve already got the losses and would just risk missing when things move back up. Right?…

Don’t touch it and don’t look at it.

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Posted

Honestly I don’t know what advice to give.  In 2000 I held through, in 2008 I held through it, in 2020 I sold quite a bit but bought back in on the way up.  
 

I rotated out of US equities and am still not buying.  I think there’s too much uncertainty right now.

Posted
1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Disagree Office Space GIF by MOODMAN

I was saying in a vacuum going on a tariff spree that actually was calculated, made sense and had demands attached to it from the get go would have seemed like hard line negotiating, it would have had an impact but not a full meltdown. 

These people did the unthinkable and honestly the stupidest thing possible, I don't think there is any way they could have done worse. Then their erratic and unstable behavior has continued after causing even more uncertainty. The meltdown isn't a single component, it's a mix of all this massive stupidity. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Anyone want to bet on whether we hit circuit breakers tomorrow?  Pretty sure that is going to happen.  

I think there's an even-money chance we'll hit the first one at 7%.

 

Posted
I’m 42. I don’t really manage my 401k, just put it in the 2040 retirement bucket. Tomorrow is not the day to start managing it and move everything to a money market, right?  I’ve already got the losses and would just risk missing when things move back up. Right?…

You’ve got 20 years for things to come back. If it goes to zero, you and all of us are going to have bigger things to worry about. Buy on the way down and on the way up. I’m 47 and rebalanced last month.
Posted
I think we’re going to bottom at around -30 to 40 percent on the S&P.  I think unfortunately it’s going to take a while.  Would love to be wrong.

Based on Trumps statement this evening that he sees all trade deficits as negative, we are fucked. Companies are already running numbers on what supplies / goods will cost now and it’s not pretty. Our prices are going to skyrocket. 40% down is easy at this point.
Posted (edited)

Hat tip to atomheart for the visual, but this shit sure looks a lot like black Monday 

image.thumb.png.ce1034a65c9231c7ff4bfd6222ee056a.png

Edit: actually with the new DEI rules, they'll probably call it something other than "black" Monday 

Edited by Captainant
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Posted

I was supposed to work tomorrow but I called in and moved my shift to later in the week. Whatever happens tomorrow, I have to see it first hand. If we didnt have a drop greater than 7% during covid, I have a hard time seeing us going below 7% tomorrow but this isnt covid so what do I know. Regardless, it should be fascinating to see it unfold.

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Posted

Even with the Japan rout earlier tonight,  we still look to be holding steady. Ive got a big decision tomorrow if we hold above SPY 480 overnight. If I wake up and its at like 460 ill just watch the fireworks but if we hold here, I really do believe there is a chance for a bounce. 480-490 was the target range for a lot of folks.

Posted
1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

I'm a financial advisor.  I've coached clients for years that there are four things you have to do:

1. Make sure your investments match your risk tolerance.

2. Make sure you're well-diversified.

3. Stay invested all the time.  Market timing is a fool's errand in the 21st Century.

4. Keep feeding the piggy bank -- see Dollar Cost Averaging.

 

I still believe all of that.  But this shit here is absolutely unprecedented.  I wouldn't blame anybody if they wanted to move to cash and reevaluate in a month.  

Fun fact: When the VIX gets above 30, that tends to be very bad news for the stock market.  It's jumped from 21 to 45 in the last few sessions.

So, yeah, I'm not about to give financial advice on the internet.  But anybody who tells you they know what's coming next week, in either direction, is 100% full of shit.  Let your conscience and your risk tolerance be your guide.

This is good advice and thanks TexArcher.  I know this shit is life altering for a lot of people and I’m sorry for everyone getting fucked by this.

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Posted

And please understand, I am not enjoying this. Im just fascinated by once in a lifetime events like this and enjoy commenting on them. Im also positioned quite conservatively so I dont feel the anxiety some of you are feeling so its easier for me to comment on technical bounces, what I think will happen etc. Speaking of what I think will happen tomorrow. Im gonna take my shot and say if we hold above 480 the rest of the night, we will sell off hard in the first 5-30 minutes, flushing out the panic sellers, then rally the rest of the day and we close above 500.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I'm a financial advisor.  I've coached clients for years that there are four things you have to do:

1. Make sure your investments match your risk tolerance.

2. Make sure you're well-diversified.

3. Stay invested all the time.  Market timing is a fool's errand in the 21st Century.

4. Keep feeding the piggy bank -- see Dollar Cost Averaging.

 

I still believe all of that.  And by that logic, you stay the course and console yourself about the losses with the knowledge that you're picking up more shares while they're on sale for the next few months.

But this shit here is absolutely unprecedented.  I wouldn't blame anybody if they wanted to move to cash and reevaluate in a month or two.  

Fun fact: When the VIX gets above 30, that tends to be very bad news for the stock market.  It's jumped from 21 to 45 in the last few sessions.

So, yeah, I'm not about to give financial advice on the internet.  But anybody who tells you they know what's coming next week, in either direction, is 100% full of shit.  Let your conscience and your risk tolerance be your guide.


Great advice. And have had plenty of similar conversations on Thursday and Friday. This is just completely out of the historical norm (Covid, GFC, tech wreck, black Monday) because it was completely self inflicted. 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I still believe all of that.

An aside is that #2 is key, but most people aren’t very diverse even when they think they are. The proverbial 60/40 portfolio is invested in like 15% of the investable universe. 

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