Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted

Looking more like how the 10% drop played out. If we bounce at 480 today or tomorrow it will try (again) for the 5 day average which will be decidedly lower after another 500 ish close. Then if we dont retake the 5 day tomorrow, Thursday may be the 1987 type day where we capitulate, albeit with much more magnitude than what happened at 10%. If it repeats like that, then buying into the close on Thursday will be the play. Sadly I work that day so I wont be as keen on movement. These swings are fucking crazy. The question is are they following a pattern. There arent that many 20% drops in the past 50 years. Do they all follow the same playbook? We would need the 5 day to be in a more manageable range for the market to overtake it. Today it was just too high to sustain. Thursday and Friday should be much more attainable. But I work at a Wendy's so what do I know.

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

The Vix above 40 for 3 days in a row is fucking ridiculous

I did not know what was going to happen with the administration.  But I viewed the cabinet as one of the least qualified, and the President as being surrounded by folks who will only give praise.  This is a bad combination for any company, even worse for a country.  So I expected huge volatility.  With volatility I felt like that was going to be an easy bet.  Vix was 14 when I started accumulating UVIX at $36.  I bought UVIX instead of moving into futures trading.

I still think about the market rising before Trump's "reciprocal" tariff announcement... There is still a lot of hope... the fake new rally showed that.

 

I guess ships will start accumulating off our ports now.  As US companies deal with something costing 104% more than when it left port 3 weeks ago...

 

Edited by horn4life
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 hours ago, horn4life said:

Why would China give in?  Xi doesn't have to explain that he wiped out a big chunk of retirement savings?  There is a SHIT TON of profit made by the US selling China goods.  Enitre US businesses are based on doing almost only that.  Should the disappear?  For the greater good?

If the administration thinks they can turn off the Chain Supply chain and not send the US to a deep recession, somebody has not done the math. 

I think that is the calculation that has been made. Agree or disagree with it, I believe they will ride out the tariffs with China as they want to see the current relationship structure fundamentally changed. The Chinese haven't played fair for a long, long time so there will be initial pain but I don't believe a deep recession would result from the break (big, BIG assumption being that much of the other tariffs with other countries are ironed out). I think the goal is to not work out the tariff issues with China. I expect zero movement in that stance by both sides through the year.

Posted
29 minutes ago, horn4life said:

I did not know what was going to happen with the administration.  But I viewed the cabinet as one of the least qualified, and the President as being surrounded by folks who will only give praise.  This is a bad combination for any company, even worse for a country.  So I expected huge volatility.  With volatility I felt like that was going to be an easy bet.  Vix was 14 when I started accumulating UVIX at $36.  I bought UVIX instead of moving into futures trading.

I still think about the market rising before Trump's "reciprocal" tariff announcement... There is still a lot of hope... the fake new rally showed that.

 

I guess ships will start accumulating off our ports now.  As US companies deal with something costing 104% more than when it left port 3 weeks ago...

 

Do you sell every day at market close?  Or are you just letting it ride?

Posted
20 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I think that is the calculation that has been made. Agree or disagree with it, I believe they will ride out the tariffs with China as they want to see the current relationship structure fundamentally changed. The Chinese haven't played fair for a long, long time so there will be initial pain but I don't believe a deep recession would result from the break (big, BIG assumption being that much of the other tariffs with other countries are ironed out). I think the goal is to not work out the tariff issues with China. I expect zero movement in that stance by both sides through the year.

No they haven’t. Trump’s economic policy is coming from a loon who somehow has a degree from Harvard. They haven’t thought thru shit. 

The entire US economy is built on the China supply chain. The amounts being handled elsewhere, like Vietnam, Mexico, etc is a pittance compared to China. While other countries can produce some goods cheaper than China, China has built a massive machine feeding the U.S. monster. It cannot be unwound in a few months. Period. 

And the negotiating approach being used by Trump with China is fundamentally the wrong cultural approach, by a mile. The Chinese will just dig in even deeper. 

I’ve written several posts about China elsewhere on the site, and there is only one way to deal with them. Build an entire alternative infrastructure elsewhere and then play them off against it mercilessly. But that takes a decade to build, and full government support. It ain’t happening. 

The one good news is that the US doesn’t sell a lot into China and never will, so if they eventually cut them off it won’t be that painful for most US companies. For a minority it will hurt badly. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Drool 1
Posted
2 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

Looking more like how the 10% drop played out. If we bounce at 480 today or tomorrow it will try (again) for the 5 day average which will be decidedly lower after another 500 ish close. Then if we dont retake the 5 day tomorrow, Thursday may be the 1987 type day where we capitulate, albeit with much more magnitude than what happened at 10%. If it repeats like that, then buying into the close on Thursday will be the play. Sadly I work that day so I wont be as keen on movement. These swings are fucking crazy. The question is are they following a pattern. There arent that many 20% drops in the past 50 years. Do they all follow the same playbook? We would need the 5 day to be in a more manageable range for the market to overtake it. Today it was just too high to sustain. Thursday and Friday should be much more attainable. But I work at a Wendy's so what do I know.

You're little imaginary 5-day line don't mean shit.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 1
  • Drool 1
Posted

Sigh.

I am a pretty damned good prognosticator....and a terrible investor/actor on my predictions.

I told myself a month ago "better dump as much as I can into cash/fixed return stuff, because shit's about to get wild."  Yet....I didn't, so the equity portion of my portfolio has taken its lumps.

I told myself two months ago, when it became apparent that we were shitting on our ties with NATO and the EU, "I bet european defense stocks will take off."  But I didn't do anything about it.  And sure enough, every one of them I'd looked at has taken off -- some have doubled, even tripled.

Do I have any prediction right now?  Not really.  Just that shit is going to be volatile and messy and unpredictable.  And I'm really not sophisticated enough to take advantage of it.  I know a good bit about many things, but my investment savvy is pretty basic.  So, in summary, I hate myself.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

No they haven’t. Trump’s economic policy is coming from a loon who somehow has a degree from Harvard. They haven’t thought thru shit.

I had a whole thing typed out about Navarro, but it's probably more cloakroom stuff.  But that fucker is crazy.  He should be nowhere near a sane administration.  Pence and Mnuchin actively kept Navarro away from Trump in the first term. There is no sanity barrier this time.   I don't know that Trump will cave on tariffs when he's surrounded himself with these types of people. 

 

Edited by RabidM
Posted
48 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

No they haven’t. Trump’s economic policy is coming from a loon who somehow has a degree from Harvard. They haven’t thought thru shit. 

The entire US economy is built on the China supply chain. The amounts being handled elsewhere, like Vietnam, Mexico, etc is a pittance compared to China. While other countries can produce some goods cheaper than China, China has built a massive machine feeding the U.S. monster. It cannot be unwound in a few months. Period. 

And the negotiating approach being used by Trump with China is fundamentally the wrong cultural approach, by a mile. The Chinese will just dig in even deeper. 

I’ve written several posts about China elsewhere on the site, and there is only one way to deal with them. Build an entire alternative infrastructure elsewhere and then play them off against it mercilessly. But that takes a decade to build, and full government support. It ain’t happening. 

The one good news is that the US doesn’t sell a lot into China and never will, so if they eventually cut them off it won’t be that painful for most US companies. For a minority it will hurt badly. 

Your points seem to support the approach the administration is taking as maybe the one of only ways to change the "partnership". ie. There isn't a great way, maybe ripping the bandaid off is the only way and we'll need the Chinese to dig their heels in to do it.

Posted
3 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Your points seem to support the approach the administration is taking as maybe the one of only ways to change the "partnership". ie. There isn't a great way, maybe ripping the bandaid off is the only way and we'll need the Chinese to dig their heels in to do it.

Ten years ago, with TPP, we had a very good chance at decoupling less chaotically and building that alternative supply chain. That chance is over, and China's position vis-a-vis those countries who were part of that plan has only gotten stronger in the meantime.

With the impulsive and unpredictable nature of this trade war (which destroys trust) and the irrationally high tariffs placed on some of those trade partners (which punish them for trading with us), they really have nowhere else to turn but toward China.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Ten years ago, with TPP, we had a very good chance at decoupling less chaotically and building that alternative supply chain. That chance is over, and China's position vis-a-vis those countries who were part of that plan has only gotten stronger in the meantime.

With the impulsive and unpredictable nature of this trade war (which destroys trust) and the irrationally high tariffs placed on some of those trade partners (which punish them for trading with us), they really have nowhere else to turn but toward China.

During his first term, Trump also could have had used his corporate tax cuts to incentivize american companies to move their manufacturing back to US. If you already manufactured 100% in the US, you got the full tax break. If you manufactured completely overseas, you didn't get shit, and wouldn't get shit until you were moving operations back to the US. I don't know how much of a motivator it would have been, but it would have to be better than just giving that money away with no obligations  and letting them continue to manufacture shit in China. But he's a fucking moron,  so he didn't take the obvious layup with an America-first justification for his tax cuts. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted
12 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Ten years ago, with TPP, we had a very good chance at decoupling less chaotically and building that alternative supply chain. That chance is over, and China's position vis-a-vis those countries who were part of that plan has only gotten stronger in the meantime.

With the impulsive and unpredictable nature of this trade war (which destroys trust) and the irrationally high tariffs placed on some of those trade partners (which punish them for trading with us), they really have nowhere else to turn but toward China.

I guess my thought is this isn't impulsive and is predictable and we should expect these tariffs with other countries to be worked out quickly, but we should expect the tarriffs with China to remain in place indefinitely. I'm trying to rationalize what that would mean for the markets this year and what it would mean in coming few years.  Companies like AAPL and Nike... yeah they're screwed quickly.  Who benefits quickly?

Posted
1 minute ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Who benefits quickly?

Repo men. Driving the economy into a recession or worse seems like a suboptimal way to address a problem 40 years in the making. It doesnt get fixed in 6 months, or anything close to it. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:


I’ve had a few people recommend the all-in podcast the last couple of years. They are no longer in my life. 

What's their favorite part of the podcast? Sacks' utter disdain for Ukraine and fellating of Russia?

Edited by Storm the Field
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Firemans4Horn said:

 


busted through the 08 lows. Worst 4 day stretch for AAPL since dot com bust

image.thumb.jpeg.43f8dda7e623baf1d3bd3f036182e980.jpeg

Just now, Storm the Field said:

What's their favorite part of the podcast? Sacks' utter disdain for Ukraine and fellating of Russia?


Chamath shilling some worthless SPAC on the long side while investing short?

Posted
2 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I guess my thought is this isn't impulsive and is predictable and we should expect these tariffs with other countries to be worked out quickly, but we should expect the tarriffs with China to remain in place indefinitely. I'm trying to rationalize what that would mean for the markets this year and what it would mean in coming few years.  Companies like AAPL and Nike... yeah they're screwed quickly.  Who benefits quickly?

 

If you're looking for short-term investing advice, I have none other than figure out a way to invest in Goodwill and other consignment stores. As for the longer term, I do recommend reading the second article in this link and think about how China's automotive industry has virtually zero presence in the US and is still booming.

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/40328-non-political-tariffs-thread/page/14/#comment-6998846

 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
4 hours ago, TexArcher said:

Actual question from a client today:

"I see the market's green again, so is everything okay now?"

Oh you sweet summer child...

So what are you telling your clients.  Seeing some of your other posts elsewhere makes me think you're not the most unbiased investor

4 hours ago, Superhero said:

Is today is the dead cat bouncing before it drops more?

Vol is back on the menu for a while.  But yes, we will go down more.  Still haven't had the puke

1 hour ago, Firemans4Horn said:

 

AAPL will a great way to play max fear re China.  When all hope is lost (think when Brisket starts posting in all caps and in bold regarding WW3 and nukes and shit), buy Apple.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
7 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:


busted through the 08 lows. Worst 4 day stretch for AAPL since dot com bust

image.thumb.jpeg.43f8dda7e623baf1d3bd3f036182e980.jpeg


Chamath shilling some worthless SPAC on the long side while investing short?

I thought 08 was the Real Estate bubble not Dot Com

Posted
4 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

So what are you telling your clients.  Seeing some of your other posts elsewhere makes me think you're not the most unbiased investor

There are no unbiased investors.

I'm telling my clients what I always tell them: I'm not in the business of predicting what markets are going to do next, and I encourage them to ignore 100% of the people who do, because they're just trying to sell something.  No one actually knows what's coming in the short term, ever, and you don't need to.

And I gave my standard advice a couple of pages ago, with the caveat that these are unprecedented times.  I would be more likely than ever to completely ignore someone who told me what's about to happen next.

 

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
12 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I think we retest the lows tomorrow.

China dug in, Tariffs on China are now 104%.

Ships are lining up outside the ports and not unloading.  Transportation stocks should be tanking now too.

I think that it could end up like the tanker in the Suez to supply chains.  Workers will be laid off because of the broken supply chains.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Do you sell every day at market close?  Or are you just letting it ride?

Originally UVIX was a hedge against my Palantir (PLTR) that I had ridden up. 

My "disciple" if there is any is buying almost every stock share the last two years as a covered call.  UVIX I was just buying.  I was down about $20K on my stake as PLTR started to pull back.  Then I pushed most of those gains into UVIX.  But it is so fucking risky I almost cannot tell you.  

But no.  I am holding right now.  But what I have tried to do on the volatile shit I have been trading the last 2 years. But as covered call.  If stock spikes sell at least half with calls far enough out to both bank and maybe catch a pullback to have the shared close OTM.  Then when it moves hard down, I buy in the money calls and some cheap OTM calls.   But that's a longer term stock strategy.  

Right now I see the potential for insane parabolic VIX movement, (insert cloak room how dumb are we) and I am honestly concerned we may drift past recession.  If I did NOT believe that I would not be holding.  But for me the last great news was a falsehood, that our President might be reasonable...  Think about that.  That lie about reasonableness, made the market rise $2 trillion dollars. 

 I texted everyone close to me, just sell everything now.  Might as well save some of your gains.  Or cut the losses that are just starting IMHO.

Posted

I think everyone except Trump and his 3 or 4 mouthpieces realize the tariffs were based on flawed math. And the bb’s are now out of the box. There’s no fucking way that negotiating 180 different tariff policies over the next couple months doesn’t end poorly. China has no reason to blink. 
 

Only real way I see a soonish market turnaround is enough pressure on Trump to re-jigger the flawed numbers they put into their initial tariff plan (I don’t suggest a mea culpa because that would never happen). I put those odds at less than 10%. 
 

There is no 4d chess going on. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Economist perspective:

image.thumb.png.b8da14b2da6d93887138ad3b5b6598d3.png

 

2 hours ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I guess my thought is this isn't impulsive and is predictable and we should expect these tariffs with other countries to be worked out quickly, but we should expect the tarriffs with China to remain in place indefinitely. I'm trying to rationalize what that would mean for the markets this year and what it would mean in coming few years.  Companies like AAPL and Nike... yeah they're screwed quickly.  Who benefits quickly?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Y'all some funny fucks thinking there is actually any real thought or plan here. Our best hope is some paper negotiations and announcements happen that let us pretend to be a "winner" and the market only loses 15% of its value over this shit. The idea that any long term strategic goal (other than the complete demolition of our economy) will be attained is complete fucking fantasy. 

And I sure as shit ain't listening to the guy who gave us the most awkward "trader" story just a few pages ago and who compared a trade deficit to fucking household finances. 

Edited by Dahobbs
  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
12 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Y'all some funny fucks thinking there is actually any real thought or plan here. Our best hope is some paper negotiations and announcements happen that let us pretend to be a "winner" and the market only loses 15% of its value over this shit. The idea that any long term strategic goal (other than the complete demolition of our economy) will be attained is complete fucking fantasy. 

And I sure as shit ain't listening to the guy who gave us the most awkward "trader" story just a few pages ago and who compared a trade deficit to fucking household finances. 

Dude, I have absolutely no sound opinion on what the “plan” is and don’t trust everything I read, just sharing information so we get different viewpoints for market decisions, which is what the thread is for. I did my best to stay awake in economics class and don’t claim anything above that level of education in the matter.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...