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Posted
4 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

It seems like shit has to go way more south before the Fed fires up the QE machine again, right?

They are in a bind on cutting rates with tariffs already being extremely inflationary. I don't think the Fed is coming to save us.

Powell does not give a fuck what trump thinks. 

Posted
51 minutes ago, immamac said:

Powell does not give a fuck what trump thinks. 

Lulz, like Trump gives a fuck about some law saying he cant throw Powell in jail for national security reasons.  

Posted
2 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Lulz, like Trump gives a fuck about some law saying he cant throw Powell in jail for national security reasons.  

It wouldn't be jail, it would be El Salvador Gulag

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

I don't konw why people think the Fed is going to step in to save the Market. At this point, the electorate has gotta swim through it's own shit river and let the economy shake out. Tariffs are sort of a one time inflationary event (at least in theory).  They aren't the classic too much money chasing too few goods. Once they induce a recession, prices will top out/stall and the Fed can start thinking about cutting rates. Again.....in theory.  But theory doesn't account for a Mad King. 

Honest question here, but Isn't it equally likely that the Fed increases rates to alleviate stagflation?

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Posted
2 hours ago, horn4life said:

Tomorrow morning premarket is going to likely have some serious movement.   CPI , Initial Jobless and Consumer confidence reports before market.  I expect a negative upside to all.  But what has me scratching my head is... will the market rally on bad news.. because Fed forced to the Rescue?  

What would spike the market honestly is an announcement from the White House that they had made a deal with somebody, anybody!  

 

That’s the thing- he’s actually set the predicate to make a bunch of good deals with everyone not named China, which we should actively fuck with and try to reshore a bunch of national security type shit (meds, rare earths etc) to make us less dependent on them. It should be “open for business bring us your best offer” and then boom boom boom, trade deal after trade deal. It would take about 30 minutes for the market to basically recover everything and for the 10 year to get back in the right direction. 
But, it’s actually possible that he does want tariffs and not freer/fairer trade and this is a feature not a bug, in which case who the fuck knows where the bottom is?  He’s talking out of both sides of his mouth and the market is completely unable to figure out what the end game is here, because who can actually know? 
fascinating shit. If you are up 100k cash it all now and don’t sweat what you could have won think about being so right and losing it all because you got greedy. 

Posted
2 hours ago, immamac said:

Powell does not give a fuck what trump thinks. 

Likewise, Trump doesn't care what Powell thinks. If JPow does something Trump doesn't like he will trash talk him, fire him, or jail him and the Supreme Court will back him up.

Posted
Just now, Wally Fairway said:

Likewise, Trump doesn't care what Powell thinks. If JPow does something Trump doesn't like he will trash talk him, fire him, or jail him and the Supreme Court will back him up.

Ron Paul- chairman of the Fed!  Cue the it’s happening bunker meme. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s the thing- he’s actually set the predicate to make a bunch of good deals with everyone not named China, which we should actively fuck with and try to reshore a bunch of national security type shit (meds, rare earths etc) to make us less dependent on them. It should be “open for business bring us your best offer” and then boom boom boom, trade deal after trade deal. It would take about 30 minutes for the market to basically recover everything and for the 10 year to get back in the right direction. 
But, it’s actually possible that he does want tariffs and not freer/fairer trade and this is a feature not a bug, in which case who the fuck knows where the bottom is?  He’s talking out of both sides of his mouth and the market is completely unable to figure out what the end game is here, because who can actually know? 
fascinating shit. If you are up 100k cash it all now and don’t sweat what you could have won think about being so right and losing it all because you got greedy. 

You’re making an assumption that this administration is looking to make deals. Unfortunately, the messaging is all over the place. From we want to make deals to tariffs are here to stay to the completely made-up formula to calculate the tariffs, there’s no way to understand what the end goal is here. It’s all speculation because the message is incoherent and is subject to the whims of a moron. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Trump ups China tariffs to 125%, caps all other country tariffs at 10% for the 90 next days.

Ah cool, will buy more puts. China is the one that counts. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, royiv said:

You’re making an assumption that this administration is looking to make deals. Unfortunately, the messaging is all over the place. From we want to make deals to tariffs are here to stay to the completely made-up formula to calculate the tariffs, there’s no way to understand what the end goal is here. It’s all speculation because the message is incoherent and is subject to the whims of a moron. 

It seems clear we are going directly at China now, and will also negotiate with other nations to get better deals and align opposite China.

Seems to be the classic Trump throw out something wild as your initial proposal, convince people you're crazy, then come to terms. I'm not sure why it catches everyone offguard.

 

 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Blotto said:

WTF happened?

 

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114309144289505174

Quote

Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Thomas Walsh said:

It seems clear we are going directly at China now, and will also negotiate with other nations to get better deals and align opposite China.

Seems to be the classic Trump throw out something wild as your initial proposal, convince people you're crazy, then come to terms. I'm not sure why it catches everyone offguard.

 

 

That’s not how you run a country and the world’s largest economy.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, royiv said:

You’re making an assumption that this administration is looking to make deals. Unfortunately, the messaging is all over the place. From we want to make deals to tariffs are here to stay to the completely made-up formula to calculate the tariffs, there’s no way to understand what the end goal is here. It’s all speculation because the message is incoherent and is subject to the whims of a moron. 

You missed the entire last two paragraphs bro- the part where I started it with “But, it’s possible he actually wants tariffs, blah blah blah” and said literally he’s talking out of both sides of his mouth. 

Posted
Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

You missed the entire last two paragraphs bro- the part where I started it with “But, it’s possible he actually wants tariffs, blah blah blah” and said literally he’s talking out of both sides of his mouth. 

Got it, bro.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Thomas Walsh said:
It seems clear we are going directly at China now, and will also negotiate with other nations to get better deals and align opposite China.
Seems to be the classic Trump throw out something wild as your initial proposal, convince people you're crazy, then come to terms. I'm not sure why it catches everyone offguard.
 

 

IMG_4858.jpeg

Edited by Chuckie Finster
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Thomas Walsh said:

It seems clear we are going directly at China now, and will also negotiate with other nations to get better deals and align opposite China.

Seems to be the classic Trump throw out something wild as your initial proposal, convince people you're crazy, then come to terms. I'm not sure why it catches everyone offguard.

 

 

Don't give credit to a toddler who continues to touch the hot stove. It hurt, so he recoiled. It's like a game of whack-a-mole. He'll place his hand on another hot burner soon. Once he's finished scorching his hand with that other one, he'll come back to this one and do it again. 

 

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Posted (edited)

I guess we no longer care about the lbs of Fentanyl streaming across the canadian border every year. Think about our children Donnie. 

Edited by Blotto
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Posted
10 minutes ago, Thomas Walsh said:

It seems clear we are going directly at China now, and will also negotiate with other nations to get better deals and align opposite China.

Seems to be the classic Trump throw out something wild as your initial proposal, convince people you're crazy, then come to terms. I'm not sure why it catches everyone offguard.

 

 

That was my take, and while I don’t love that negotiating strategy it’s effective (until it isn’t!) many many times. If that’s what happens he gets another win, the country wins and we can look to actively horsefucking China, which is owed a huge fucking beating for all the ways they lie, cheat, steal and oh by the way caused the entire covid worldwide pandemic those bunch of commie assholes. 
as to why I believed this might not be a ploy, Trump is a 1980’s style Democrat of the Dick Gephart stripe that’s loved Tarrifs (at least in theory) for his whole life, so I was a bit concerned the whole thing was going to be not a ploy but actual belief. 

Posted

Well that was fucking expensive.... that's why they are called unrealized.   Funny as fuck. I was about to just close it all out and go fishing with a buddy.  That was a $40K haircut but out.  

I was completely wrong. Trump blinked.  I thought it would take a lot more downside.  

My stops were loose but helped.  Should have bought a flats boat...

 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Don't give credit to a toddler who continues to touch the hot stove. It hurt, so he recoiled. It's like a game of whack-a-mole. He'll place his hand on another hot burner soon. Once he's finished scorching his hand with that other one, he'll come back to this one and do it again. 

 

That’s also certainly possible. 

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Well that was fucking expensive.... that's why they are called unrealized.   Funny as fuck. I was about to just close it all out and go fishing with a buddy.  That was a $40K haircut but out.  

I was completely wrong. Trump blinked.  I thought it would take a lot more downside.  

My stops were loose but helped.  Should have bought a flats boat...

 

I literally told you to do that 10 minutes prior. Ha! 
reminds me of getting on the phone with my clients Thursday night and Friday morning to set up refi’s. Had 10 deals ready to go and it tuned out my window on deals I started to put together at 2:00 pm Thursday more or less slammed shut by Friday at lunch time. 
oh well. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted

Yeah, I'm not a Trump fan, so I am admittedly biased, but this whole episode really turns me off of the market.  I mean, dude's can just declare prima nocta on my investments again whenever the mood strikes.  There is no way to make a calculated risk in this environment where he'll just do whatever the fuck he wants with the world economy whenever someone puts a bug in his ear.  If I was the rest of the world, I'd be strategizing how we remove the US from the position where that can happen. 

I guess the calculated risk is to short everything like horn4life or sit the fuck out until he's gone.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Well that was fucking expensive.... that's why they are called unrealized.   Funny as fuck. I was about to just close it all out and go fishing with a buddy.  That was a $40K haircut but out.  

Eesh, that sucks man. Been there on the other side of that coin though. I had vix calls and spy puts Feb 2020 and sold them way too early. This shit is a funny game. The dopamine hits doh.  

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Posted
1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That was my take, and while I don’t love that negotiating strategy it’s effective (until it isn’t!) many many times. If that’s what happens he gets another win, the country wins and we can look to actively horsefucking China, which is owed a huge fucking beating for all the ways they lie, cheat, steal and oh by the way caused the entire covid worldwide pandemic those bunch of commie assholes. 
as to why I believed this might not be a ploy, Trump is a 1980’s style Democrat of the Dick Gephart stripe that’s loved Tarrifs (at least in theory) for his whole life, so I was a bit concerned the whole thing was going to be not a ploy but actual belief. 

He has no strategy. He is a complete fucking buffoon that is also unfortunately dumb as fuck, and that didnt change over night. Its not like leaders of the world leaders are all now oohing and ahhing about his shrewd negotiating tactics as he flings his diaper shit all over the place. Nobody views him as an ally (maybe Bibi) and nobody will trust him. Simply put 125% tariffs on China will destroy our economy, is not sustainable, and everyone knows that. Nobody gives a fuck that we wont be taxing penguins more than 10% for the next 90 days. 

Posted

So this was all a master plan.... 

I still gotta feel good about +60K in a week.

You guys let me know when this secret plan gets everyone their 401K money back.  Just another day of US Economy the game, Trump Addition.

At least I bailed on the PLTR puts earlier in the day.  Still not confident in coming back in.  

 

 

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Goredho said:

LOL, goddam, we're going to do this again in 90 days, aren't we?

Probably with some of these other countries.

How China reacts probably affects things, but they have two choices basically. 

1) play ball with us and your world mostly goes back to normal, you just get less stuff from China

2) don't play ball and your economy gets trashed and you're basically in a suicide pact with China

I think the vast majority will go with #1.

Markets should be free of the trade war armageddon overhang now.

Edited by Thomas Walsh
Posted
30 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Trump blinked. 

I’m sure he and his family all bought on the low and cashed in after he manipulated the market.  Who is going to investigate this? The weird GOP speaker of the house? 

All of America are just pawns to be used to make his family more money.  I think we are overthinking this a lot.

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Posted

I hate that fucker.  I lost 10% of my life savings to his fucking craziness.  My money is trapped in a principal protection fund and I am going to completely miss the bounce back. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Thomas Walsh said:

Probably with some of these other countries.

How China reacts probably affects things, but they have two choices basically. 

1) play ball with us and your world mostly goes back to normal, you just get less stuff from China

2) don't play ball and your economy gets trashed and you're basically in a suicide pact with China

I think the vast majority will go with #1.

Markets should be free of the trade war armageddon overhang now.

What does China "playing ball with us" look like? 

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

It still has a long way to bounce to get to where it was when this shitshow started.

It takes 2 business days to redistribute.  It will be over by then.  I also can't roll over into a different retirement account for at least 90 days.  God I hate that fucker. 

Edited by RabidM
Posted
31 minutes ago, royiv said:

Pure chaos in strategy, or lack thereof, and message.

Which causes uncertainly, which spawns wild volatility in the markets, which causes plenty of normal investors to make emotional decisions with their assets that turn out poor for them. Fuck this guy. He's learning the hard way that he doesn't have ultimate decision-making authority for the world. However, I shouldn't use the word "learning," because I'm sure that isn't actually happening.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Blotto said:

He has no strategy. He is a complete fucking buffoon that is also unfortunately dumb as fuck, and that didnt change over night. Its not like leaders of the world leaders are all now oohing and ahhing about his shrewd negotiating tactics as he flings his diaper shit all over the place. Nobody views him as an ally (maybe Bibi) and nobody will trust him. Simply put 125% tariffs on China will destroy our economy, is not sustainable, and everyone knows that. Nobody gives a fuck that we wont be taxing penguins more than 10% for the next 90 days. 

125% tariffs on China won’t destroy our economy overnight or ever. There’s a grand rearranging that’s possible and if that’s what we are trying to do I’m in for some temporary pain if it will bring them to heel and fix our national security problems that showed during Covid with over dependence on them. 
I’m just glad the plan wasn’t to nuke the entire world, which I thought might be on the table. 
But yeah, I basically called it 10 minutes before it happened, in real time, on this page, while also admitting it’s possible there is no grand design and he’s that dumb. Shrugs. 

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