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Posted
23 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That was my take, and while I don’t love that negotiating strategy it’s effective (until it isn’t!) many many times. If that’s what happens he gets another win, the country wins and we can look to actively horsefucking China, which is owed a huge fucking beating for all the ways they lie, cheat, steal and oh by the way caused the entire covid worldwide pandemic those bunch of commie assholes. 
as to why I believed this might not be a ploy, Trump is a 1980’s style Democrat of the Dick Gephart stripe that’s loved Tarrifs (at least in theory) for his whole life, so I was a bit concerned the whole thing was going to be not a ploy but actual belief. 

Boycott this man’s business

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Posted
Just now, Thomas Walsh said:

They still have the tariffs. It appears all this crazy shit was about them. I was speaking of all the countries that have 90 day pauses.

So, playing ball is simply them removing the tariffs and then we'll remove our tariffs and we're back where we were before this admin?

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Foosters said:

So, playing ball is simply them removing the tariffs and then we'll remove our tariffs and we're back where we were before this admin?

I would think for non-China countries it will be some mix of removing or lowering their pre-existing tariffs and also bringing down non-tariff trade barriers. I'm no expert on that, but it's being brought up a lot now. Maybe another poster can elaborate on that.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Thomas Walsh said:

They still have the tariffs. It appears all this crazy shit was about them. I was speaking of all the countries that have 90 day pauses.

What did we get out of all those countries? I thought this was some big grand art of the deal stuff to open factories in the US?

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Foosters said:

So, playing ball is simply them removing the tariffs and then we'll remove our tariffs and we're back where we were before this admin?

It’s not just tariffs - as you know- it’s all sorts of cheating and unfair trade practices. 
our trade deals will probably get about 5-10% better because of this (I don’t like the strategy) with the countries onboard. We will see what the China fallout looks like eventually. 
 

or:

 

 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s not just tariffs - as you know- it’s all sorts of cheating and unfair trade practices. 
our trade deals will probably get about 5-10% better because of this (I don’t like the strategy) with the countries onboard. We will see what the China fallout looks like eventually. 

What happened to returning all manufacturing to the US? I thought that, and eliminating trade deficits, was the impetus for these tariffs?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Foosters said:

What happened to returning all manufacturing to the US? I thought that, and eliminating trade deficits, was the impetus for these tariffs?

I don’t know that was the game or not. I hoped it wasn’t and said it would be dumb if it was but it was possible he actually believed that shit. 
I think we will onshore some national security shit that’s China has done up to now and I think trade deficits will get a little bit better. 
I don’t like the negotiating strategy of brinksmanship for incremental improvements (I don’t go to my wife and threaten divorce because I want Friday to be steak and blow job night- even if it might be likely to work bc what if it doesn’t?) but who the hell knows?  
convincing the other person you are a nut in a game of chicken is an effective strategy to make them swerve, but why fucking bother unless it’s super important?  What we are trying to do with China might be, the other stuff is dumb. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted
7 minutes ago, Foosters said:

What happened to returning all manufacturing to the US? I thought that, and eliminating trade deficits, was the impetus for these tariffs?

The faucets of Fentanyl to the north were turned off.  CRISIS MANAGED.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Foosters said:

What happened to returning all manufacturing to the US? I thought that, and eliminating trade deficits, was the impetus for these tariffs?

Don't worry we'll be doing this all again in approximately 86 days

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Posted (edited)

Tomorrow you are going to see the beginnings of Trumps actions in reports and today was the day to blink, because tomorrow might have been off the cliff.  

I also think it's hilarious as shit that folks actually think this was a plan.  This was a lie to cover a mistake, nothing more nothing less.  At least there is clarity and certainty this afternoon...

Shit I want to reshort PLTR at $92

Edited by horn4life
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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s not just tariffs - as you know- it’s all sorts of cheating and unfair trade practices. 
our trade deals will probably get about 5-10% better because of this (I don’t like the strategy) with the countries onboard. We will see what the China fallout looks like eventually. 

No, they will not. That's ridiculous. Things that were already true or already happening will get get announced as if they are new. Some new things that have no practical significance or no realistic chance of actually happening (e.g., Apple investing hundreds of billions in the US) will get announced.  And that market overall will be worse than it would have been if none of this had happened. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Posted
1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

No, they will not. That's ridiculous. Things that were already true or already happening will get get announced as if they are new. Some new things that have no practical significance or no realistic chance of actually happening (e.g., Apple investing hundreds of billions in the US) will get announced.  And that market overall will be worse than it would have been if none of this had happened. 

Maybe?  Maybe not?  There are negotiations that will happen that otherwise wouldn’t have. NAFTA probably got a little better for us in 2018 and I’d expect other things to happen the same way with this. 
I’m up for a bet that our trade deficits go down 10% over - let’s say 26-28 compared to baseline of 22-24. Maybe it would have happened anyway but I isn’t see anyone else offering better terms without us broaching the subject. 

Posted
34 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

There’s a grand rearranging that’s possible and if that’s what we are trying to do I’m in for some temporary pain if it will bring them to heel and fix our national security problems that showed during Covid with over dependence on them. 

You aren't this dumb are you?

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe?  Maybe not?  There are negotiations that will happen that otherwise wouldn’t have. NAFTA probably got a little better for us in 2018 and I’d expect other things to happen the same way with this. 
I’m up for a bet that our trade deficits go down 10% over - let’s say 26-28 compared to baseline of 22-24. Maybe it would have happened anyway but I isn’t see anyone else offering better terms without us broaching the subject. 

Thinking that a trade deficit being reduced is necessarily a good thing is part of the idiocy. I'm not taking a bet if that is what you mean by our trade deals "getting better" because it is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of trade and the global economy. 

The US excelled at producing a good that was highly valued, the dollar. Everyone wanted it. They would give us nice things for it. Now they don't want it as much, so they'll give us less stuff for it. That technically will result in a more balanced import/export stat line, but it isn't a good thing. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Bears are going to get their faces ripped off.  You want to step in front of the freight train, be my guest.

What freight train would that be exactly?  Inquiring minds…

Posted
1 hour ago, royiv said:

You’re making an assumption that this administration is looking to make deals. Unfortunately, the messaging is all over the place. From we want to make deals to tariffs are here to stay to the completely made-up formula to calculate the tariffs, there’s no way to understand what the end goal is here. It’s all speculation because the message is incoherent and is subject to the whims of a moron. 

A really fundamental thing about deals is you have to trust your counterparty will stick to it once the deal is made. The rest of the world knows beyond a shadow of a doubt that we won't. There's no reason for anyone to even attempt to negotiate any trade deals with us and there's no evidence anyone is actually trying to do so.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Ok had to rehshort PLTR... first little bite

Some of the airlines went nuts, what do you guys think has over bumped? 

Ha, I was looking at the airlines specifically. Domestic travel will be down in a recession, and I expect international travel to the US to take a pretty big fucking hit. 

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

You aren't this dumb are you?

Is such a scenario possible? Sure. Am I predicting that? No. Just saying if that's the actual play I'm onboard.  

Yeah- I'm dumb.  I basically predicted the strategy that made sense 5 minutes before it happened and told Horn4life to sell it all b/c I'm a big big dummy. Along with being in the top 2/10's of 1% of my industry b/c I can strategically see and put together deals better than other people.  DUMB. Or, nailing the Sark hire and what he was doing after being 5-7.  And writing at length about it. Or- saying the Astros were going to win the division in 23 and 24 when they were buried under a mountain of shit. My track record on this board from the beginning is wrong about everything.  

Go look at the 2025 draft thread where I say we are getting mid double digits from last April for another example of Wulaw missing the point!

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted
Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

Is such a scenario possible? Sure. Am I predicting that? No. Just saying if that's the actual play I'm onboard.  

Yeah- I'm dumb.  I basically predicted the strategy that made sense 5 minutes before it happened and told Horn4life to sell it all b/c I'm a big big dummy. 

The only "strategy" that makes sense is to have control over Trump's phone so you can fuck with the market yourself. None of this is rational.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Along with being in the top 2/10's of 1% of my industry b/c I can strategically see and put together deals better than other people.

You work in a real estate adjacent business.  It's not like you're competing with the best and brightest.

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Posted
1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

The only "strategy" that makes sense is to have control over Trump's phone so you can fuck with the market yourself. None of this is rational.

If you want to make a change and think it's necessary then acting irrational is, sometimes, a rational move. Again, I said I don't like any of that negotiating strategy of brinksmanship or convincing the other party they have to swerve b/c you are a nut, but that doesn't mean it's irrational. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If you want to make a change and think it's necessary then acting irrational is, sometimes, a rational move. Again, I said I don't like any of that negotiating strategy of brinksmanship or convincing the other party they have to swerve b/c you are a nut, but that doesn't mean it's irrational. 

Nobody else swerved. Donald Trump pulled the pin on a grenade and said he'll kill everyone if the rest of the world doesn't hand over their wallets and everyone else began backing away. Then he panicked and put the pin back in the grenade, while saying he'll pull it again in 90 days.

Meanwhile, nobody actually knows what tariffs are now in effect against our two largest trading partners.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If you want to make a change and think it's necessary then acting irrational is, sometimes, a rational move. Again, I said I don't like any of that negotiating strategy of brinksmanship or convincing the other party they have to swerve b/c you are a nut, but that doesn't mean it's irrational. 

Who swerved exactly? 

Posted
Just now, wildcat09 said:

Nobody else swerved. Donald Trump pulled the pin on a grenade and said he'll kill everyone if the rest of the world doesn't hand over their wallets and everyone else began backing away. Then he panicked and put the pin back in the grenade, while saying he'll pull it again in 90 days.

Meanwhile, nobody actually knows what tariffs are now in effect against our two largest trading partners.

I'm sure that you will totally and completely back down in 90 days when we sign a bunch of new trade deals, right? The Japanese don't have people on a plane as we speak to renegotiate their deal.  

Again, I recognize the brinksmanship nature of what happened and am on record from the absolute beginning as saying "I don't like it". That's not the same thing as saying you can't get marginal improvements in acting like a jackass at the negotiating table (again, until it goes wrong). 

1 minute ago, Blotto said:

Who swerved exactly? 

We'll see in 90 days I guess. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

We'll see in 90 days I guess. 

Ah, so as of now, the orange fucktard swerved when he realized the rest of the world was ready to call his bluff. Got it. 

Posted

Everyone here should be happy.

The narrative was that Trump was a madman who would only escalate, never de-escalate. If you think he backed down, then it's a win.

That's also good from a market standpoint, because future tariff talk will be discounted to an extent. Unless of course people forget his tactics again.

 

Posted
13 minutes ago, Thomas Walsh said:

Everyone here should be happy slightly less pissed off.

The narrative was that Trump was a madman who would only escalate, never de-escalate. If you think he backed down, then it's a win.

That's also good from a market standpoint, because future tariff talk will be discounted to an extent. Unless of course people forget his tactics again.

 

He always caves when people call his bluff on this shit. His version of the USMCA was NAFTA with a few trivial differences.  It happened in early February when Trudeau called his bluff. Trump backed down and said Trudeau agreed to a bunch of new shit, except EVERYTHING trudeau agreed to was announced the previous December. he's a fucking toddler and when you make a habit of throwing temper tantrums and then caving, its not particularly advantageous in future negotiations. The country is in no way better off than we were in February, except he wiped out trillions in net worth. Art of the deal....what a legend. 

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Posted
26 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Nobody else swerved. Donald Trump pulled the pin on a grenade and said he'll kill everyone if the rest of the world doesn't hand over their wallets and everyone else began backing away. Then he panicked and put the pin back in the grenade, while saying he'll pull it again in 90 days.

Meanwhile, nobody actually knows what tariffs are now in effect against our two largest trading partners.

Yup.  Also, I suspect somebody chloroformed Navarro and stuffed him in a closet long enough to talk Trump into blinking. 

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Thomas Walsh said:

Everyone here should be happy.

The narrative was that Trump was a madman who would only escalate, never de-escalate. If you think he backed down, then it's a win.

That's also good from a market standpoint, because future tariff talk will be discounted to an extent. Unless of course people forget his tactics again.

 

I was happy when my portfolio was 20% larger 3 months ago before this sefl inflicted bullshit started. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Yup.  Also, I suspect somebody chloroformed Navarro and stuffed him in a closet long enough to talk Trump into blinking for Elmo to impregnate him . 

 

Posted
41 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I'm sure that you will totally and completely back down in 90 days when we sign a bunch of new trade deals, right? The Japanese don't have people on a plane as we speak to renegotiate their deal.  

Again, I recognize the brinksmanship nature of what happened and am on record from the absolute beginning as saying "I don't like it". That's not the same thing as saying you can't get marginal improvements in acting like a jackass at the negotiating table (again, until it goes wrong). 

We'll see in 90 days I guess. 

What do you think will happen in the new trade deals? What is the benefit that you will think will come from them? What, in your opinion, was the problem with them in the first place? 

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