Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
49 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That's not the same thing as saying you can't get marginal improvements in acting like a jackass at the negotiating table (again, until it goes wrong). 

Losing the trust and confidence of the entire world for "marginal improvements".  That's a hell of a risk / reward evaluation right there.

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 1
  • Drool 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe?  Maybe not?  There are negotiations that will happen that otherwise wouldn’t have. NAFTA probably got a little better for us in 2018 and I’d expect other things to happen the same way with this. 
I’m up for a bet that our trade deficits go down 10% over - let’s say 26-28 compared to baseline of 22-24. Maybe it would have happened anyway but I isn’t see anyone else offering better terms without us broaching the subject. 

That’s a real stretch to find a silver lining in one of the most stupid self inflicted wounds of all time. 

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Posted
6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

What, in your opinion, was the problem with them in the first place? 

This.  The "problem," as repeatedly stated by the administration and its mouthpieces, is that we have trade deficits (for goods....note how they are silent on services, for which we run a trade SURPLUS) with many countries.  That's it.  That's the problem.  Now, they attribute that to "cheating" and such, but "cheating" is just the mechanism they blame for creating the "problem" - that problem being "we buy more goods from Vietnam than Vietnam buys from us."  The "problem" is fucking dumb, stupid, and idiotic.  A trade deficit per se is not a problem.  It is a state of relationship between two trading partners who have differing needs and resources.  I will always run a deficit with HEB.  That deficit is not only not a problem, it is a mutually beneficial arrangement.

This whole conversation, using only the words of the administration itself, is dumb layered on stupid layered on moronic topped with insanity icing.

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Rage+1 1
Posted
1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Losing the trust and confidence of the entire world for "marginal improvements".  That's a hell of a risk / reward evaluation right there.

 

1 minute ago, CTC2 said:

That’s a real stretch to find a silver lining in one of the most stupid self inflicted wounds of all time. 

And these.

"I really wanted a blowjob last night.  So I pulled a gun on my wife and she caved and gave me one." 

Wulaw: "WINNING!"

Sane people: "Holy fucking shit, that explains why she immediately filed for divorce, is going to take you to the cleaners, and has filed criminal charges that will see you put away for 10 years.  And also, she told everyone in your professional and social circles about it, and now nobody wants anything to do with you."

Wulaw: "But don't forget -- HE GOT A BJ!"

 

  • Haha 1
Posted
3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  The "problem," as repeatedly stated by the administration and its mouthpieces, is that we have trade deficits (for goods....note how they are silent on services, for which we run a trade SURPLUS) with many countries.  That's it.  That's the problem.  Now, they attribute that to "cheating" and such, but "cheating" is just the mechanism they blame for creating the "problem" - that problem being "we buy more goods from Vietnam than Vietnam buys from us."  The "problem" is fucking dumb, stupid, and idiotic.  A trade deficit per se is not a problem.  It is a state of relationship between two trading partners who have differing needs and resources.  I will always run a deficit with HEB.  That deficit is not only not a problem, it is a mutually beneficial arrangement.

This whole conversation, using only the words of the administration itself, is dumb layered on stupid layered on moronic topped with insanity icing.

Apparently Wulaw wants his children to be able to stitch up Nike's in a 105 degree sweatshop for 12 hours a day. beats a career in real estate I guess. 

  • Haha 1
Posted
5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Can't imagine how crushing it is to people that exited yesterday. 

Maybe, but the volatility isn't done yet. We went through this same song and dance with Canada and Mexico. Tariffs announced. Tariffs paused. Nothing really happens. More, bigger, better, tariffs announced after the pause. Expect more of the same unless someone has managed to grab the wheel. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Can't imagine how crushing it is to people that exited yesterday. 

I learned my lesson in 2020….

this time I pushed in a little on tues SPY at $496.

Got back out late today with a tidy bump… at $536…but not late enough seeing it closed at $548!

  • Like 2
Posted
2 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

I learned my lesson in 2020….

this time I pushed in a little on tues SPY at $496.

Got back out late today with a tidy bump… at $536…but not late enough seeing it closed at $548!

Yeah. Picked up some sept calls into close on Friday. Dumped a portion today to take some money off the table. Riding the rest out. Put a gun to my head and I think we could see a couple more big upsides runs in that time frame (nothing this magnitude of course).

9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Maybe, but the volatility isn't done yet.

Agree with this. I think directional plays are going to win only with a measure of luck involved due to the unpredictability. I think that a smarter position than the one I staked out at the end of last week is to straddle and sell off the wins on "both sides". If we can claw back to something like SPY 580-600 by the end of the summer I will probably take that up.   

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

I'm sure all his rich friends got out just before the tariff announcement was made.  I'm sure they also bought back in huge before the tariff pause was announced.  This is disgusting, amoral behavior.  It's sickening. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted

So in net we've increased tarrifs 10% on everyone and 100%+ on China and market is down <4%.  He removes the China over and above tariff and net likely positive after increasing tariffs on everyone....  I don't expect that though so expect a slow decline for awhile.

  • Like 1
Posted
29 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Can't imagine how crushing it is to people that exited yesterday. 

Yeah, Ive decided whenever shit gets real squirrely I just buy puts so I dont have to sell anything. I exit those option positions every week or so on the way down, bank the profits and buy more. I got lucky as fuck in that I sold basically all of my April 17 puts yesterday afternoon, banked about 60% of the profits and bought more puts for May/June. Those are all down 50% now, but I'll average down on those as well. Inexplicably a couple of my larger holdings (WMT and HACK) did so well in the rebound, that I finished $200 in the green today, lulz. 

Nothing got solved today, and arguably the China situation is getting worse, so imo the markets will creep back down once today's euphoria wears off.  I have full confidence Trump will start wrecking shit again in a few days once everyone keeps pointing out it that it was donnie that caved, and absolutely none of this was necessary. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted
15 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Yeah, Ive decided whenever shit gets real squirrely I just buy puts so I dont have to sell anything.

Right, so those are just hedges and not just naked directional bets. You are effectively straddled at the risk of missing some upside, which in current environment makes 100% sense. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

CNBC's Fast Money host Melissa Lee just basiclly called out Howard Lutnick for Trump signaling there was going to be a manipulation of the market with his great time to buy DJT truth a few hours before he suspended the tariffs.  At least some are calling it out. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
48 minutes ago, RabidM said:

I'm sure all his rich friends got out just before the tariff announcement was made.  I'm sure they also bought back in huge before the tariff pause was announced.  This is disgusting, amoral behavior.  It's sickening. 

This is the game, always had been. Surly will tell anyone who thinks outside the message board vacuum they are an idiot.

This game is always the same, but different. Love him or hate him, he warned everyone it was coming, told everyone to hold tight, and then quite literally told us when to buy.

This pattern likely isn't over so I'd recommend against anyone getting aggressive either direction. 

Side note: Living overseas at the moment is interesting. For the first time, I feel a strong sense of shame to be an American. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Posted
19 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Side note: Living overseas at the moment is interesting. For the first time, I feel a strong sense of shame to be an American. 

I just got my new passport in the mail over the weekend. As I was checking it out, I thought "it might be a while before I put this one to use." On the positive side of things, it took less than 4 weeks to get the thing, so at least that function of government appears to be business as usual. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I just got my new passport in the mail over the weekend. As I was checking it out, I thought "it might be a while before I put this one to use." On the positive side of things, it took less than 4 weeks to get the thing, so at least that function of government appears to be business as usual. 

I just got mine. Took less than 3 and I didn't even expedite using online with taking my own pic and everything. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, immamac said:

I just got mine. Took less than 3 and I didn't even expedite using online with taking my own pic and everything. 

Same. Couldn’t believe how fast the turnaround time was.
 

I took a picture with my bedroom wall in the background and thought it had a 95% chance of getting rejected. It didn’t; I guess their LLM didn’t pick up on what a shitty picture it was. 

Posted
3 hours ago, Blotto said:

Who swerved exactly? 

 

3 hours ago, Blotto said:

Ah, so as of now, the orange fucktard swerved when he realized the rest of the world was ready to call his bluff. Got it. 

image.thumb.jpeg.c9288e9b003614cf9dacfe7a39de9fb9.jpeg

Posted
7 minutes ago, horn4life said:

And for me... that is sort of hard for me to bet on long at this point.  

I generally agree, but I am talking myself into an exception here in the short term. Reading a bit more about Trump's comments today, it doesnt shock me to learn that he plans on further manipulating markets by picking and choosing which companies have to pay tariffs:

Quote

Even as Trump calmed the markets – for now, at least – he also raised new questions by suggesting he would consider exempting some US companies from tariffs, saying he would make any such decisions “instinctively.”

So he's basically announcing he will now be soliciting bribes or quid pro quo favors in exchange for protection. I bring this up because those companies will likely see a recovery beyond just what we saw today. There is no concrete explanation, just Trump's instinct. 

Take AAPL for example, while their 15% recovery up to $200 today is a start, it was trading at $250 in february. My guess is doubling the cost of Iphones in the US is not a complaint he wants to hear constantly, and as they have greater than 50% market share it would be a constant complaint. Plus he probably drops about 3 Iphones in his toilet each week. OTM AAPL calls might be an interesting gamble as they would skyrocket if Trump does his buddy Tim Apple a solid. Maybe $220 or $225 AAPL calls for 5/16 expiry.

Anybody got other guesses as to who he would likely exempt? Tesla obviously, but they have bigger issues and I'm not sure it benefits them that much. Which CEOs that kiss his b-hole regularly import significantly from Gina?   

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
  • Rage+1 1
Posted

If you think the tariff wars are behind us, I think you are sadly mistaken. IMO, based on several commentators remarks, I think this was politically motivated, related to the upcoming budget legislation. Republican leaders were starting to worry about losing support in both houses, and this is trump giving some room to pull together the votes to pass tax cuts and other MAGA agenda points. Then readdress tariffs with the budget behind them.

 

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
  • Rage+1 1
Posted
13 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

If you think the tariff wars are behind us, I think you are sadly mistaken. IMO, based on several commentators remarks, I think this was politically motivated, related to the upcoming budget legislation. Republican leaders were starting to worry about losing support in both houses, and this is trump giving some room to pull together the votes to pass tax cuts and other MAGA agenda points. Then readdress tariffs with the budget behind them.

 

Whelp, they just pulled the budget vote tonight, so if Trump was trying to impress Chip Roy, it didn’t work. 
 

I think the sell off in long term bonds freaked them out, and they pulled the relief valve. I’m a long etf guy. I used today’s rally to diversify and reduce my equity exposure, eating some minor losses to protect my portfolio against more turbulence. I’m trying to retire abroad in the next 3 years. I don’t need that dipshit from Queens fucking up my retirement. 

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 2
Posted

We're going to have a nice recession this year.

The administration is not done with the stupid shit.

CEOs will howl and there may not be an unanticipated rise in bond yields to derail it next time.

He's telling you who he is.  A reckless crackpot that believes he's never wrong.

 

  • Hook 'Em 6
  • Like 2
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted
7 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Whelp, they just pulled the budget vote tonight, so if Trump was trying to impress Chip Roy, it didn’t work. 
 

I think the sell off in long term bonds freaked them out, and they pulled the relief valve. I’m a long etf guy. I used today’s rally to diversify and reduce my equity exposure, eating some minor losses to protect my portfolio against more turbulence. I’m trying to retire abroad in the next 3 years. I don’t need that dipshit from Queens fucking up my retirement. 

Chatting with folks who know their shit, their read is 10 yr bonds were hauling ass to 5% on Japan unloading their US treasury’s with some f you attached along with the msg they weren’t gonna stop and had others on board to do the same*. trump panicked. #shartofthedeal
 

*makes me think back a week or two ago when this tariff shit started and managed to turn Japan and China into allies

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 2
  • Drool 1
Posted (edited)

Yeah- as I watched the Dow futures go from 300 up after hours to 650 down as there starts to go  the manipulated rally.

Could have just held and made back $10K before dawn.  Alas poor stupid little me, only bought back in a little against the Trump Economy.

5 hours ago, Parliament said:

And the entire S&P 500 has become a meme stock.

Well we sort of have. meme economy now don't we?  To match the meme administration.

The good news is we are not going to see a 2000 point decline on top of where we were before Trump surrendered, this morning.  And like I told the wife last night at dinner, I would gladly give up $40K of such easily found money to not have us push past a recession.  I can make plenty of money in a decent economy, and those around me can prosper as well.  

-------------------------

THE BLOW BY BLOW

But since I put my shit out there yesterday, I will give you a snapshot of me trying to get my unstopped shared out.

I hit my six figs, and then it pulled back.  The doubling of my PLTR puts had eroded to almost even, and I was talking to my buddy about dropping everything and going fishing.  I opened my screen and went ahead and sold the PLTR, as I made a lot on it in the past, and seeing it start to move against me, I dumped it.

I opened my screen and place a sell order for 500 shares of at I think 92? And made a drink, realized I needed to refill the hummingbird feeder.  So put some water in a pan to heat it to mix in the sugar.  Went to look at tides and winds for Port A,  Go outside to grab feeder and my watch alert goes off, showing a move past $89 on UVIX. I go back to my screen, as I heard something about Bessent canceling a meeting,mI fast forward TV...  Then things start to move , I jump to the open sell order, and I cannot get my open order to change the limit...  Then it fucking freezes.  So after a few more clicks and waiting get the Power Etrade screen open and finally get a limit sell executed.  Whew! I am out with a stack of cash in the bank and some FOMO grief. As I see a blip flash in red reading $-107,000 on my screen in red, and it's gone. I start to panic, yelling," Fuck, fuck, fuck,! "Oh shit, I think I just lost it all!" 

My mind racing, I KNOW I fucking put in a limit and not market order. My fuck, fuck, fuck brings the wife out to see what is happening. Finally I get the slow ass view to come up and yes I did not hit MKT and the loss was only $40K and not all the profits and beyond.  I guess the 500 shares that had stops, may have been selling at the same time as I was trying to sell the remaining up-stopped shares, caused the -107,000 to flash?

I am upset but relieved.  And wife is consoling, saying, "I don't know how you have been even doing this, it's all so stressful."  and "You still made us so much money!"  What a great fucking wife!  She comes out about 15 minutes later to get some water and says, "What the fuck!  What are you doing!"

Standing over the stove the pot I was using to heat the hummingbird water is just pot starting to glow red.  I grab the pot, wash it down with water as steam fills the room.  Had I left, to run my now fishing focued errands I might have burnt the house down, or severely damaged it.  So another crisis averted.

-----------

Anyhow, while it's never fun to see $40K disappear, I was regularly seeing $40-50K swings daily on UVIX. So big swings were something I sort of got accustomed to, because days are like months.  So end of the day I only booked $50K in 4.5 trading days, did not lose $107K, and did not burn my house down.

Just thought you guys might have enjoyed the blow by blow...

 

Hook'em and good luck to all of youQ

Edited by horn4life
  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Haha 2
Posted

Damn near everything we touch / use has some component linked back to China. A massive amount of construction equipment parts that builds the roads to get us places, for example. Everything will go up in cost due to this bullshit.

  • Like 2
Posted
10 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

Damn near everything we touch / use has some component linked back to China.

Seems like a problem. 
 

We also have substantial dependency on china for our pharmaceutical supply chain. Like some of the real basics eg antibiotics. We need to return production capacity to Americans shores. 

Posted
Seems like a problem. 
 
We also have substantial dependency on china for our pharmaceutical supply chain. Like some of the real basics eg antibiotics. We need to return production capacity to Americans shores. 

I don’t disagree. However, unraveling 50 years of globalization like this isn’t the answer.
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted

Oh look, it’s Trump’s billionaire buddy and appointee to be the ambassador to Italy taking advantage of this market manipulation.

Quote

Billionaire casino owner Tilman Fertitta has taken advantage of a steep drop in the stock market by acquiring more shares of Wynn Resorts at close to its 52-week low.

According to an SEC filing released Tuesday afternoon, Feritta has acquired an additional 400,000 shares. Some 200,000 of the shares were acquired for $70.39; 100,000 shares at $70.30, and 100,000 shares at $67.62.

The date of the acquisition was April 4.

 

Posted
15 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Losing the trust and confidence of the entire world for "marginal improvements".  That's a hell of a risk / reward evaluation right there.

In Wulaw's mind, shaving 5% off the trade deficit with China by reducing the amount of Chinese goods we buy by slightly more than American companies lose in exports to China while destroying the dollar's status as reserve currency is a win. It's like shooting ourselves in the dick and balls so that we can aim for our feet a little easier.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
  • Haha 5
Posted

Well I was wrong, no creeping in of Trump policy into Jobless and inflation.  Market should be surging on that news right...? 😉 

So bought couple hundred shares of UVIX at $58.25...  will sells calls on those sometime this AM.  But gotta get my shit together to hit the road.  No worries at all about a big upside any time soon

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...