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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5674

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Posted (edited)
On 8/9/2019 at 4:04 PM, Rusty Shackelford said:

I don't have anything against the boglehead club, but you would have to be the most unlucky SOB in history to ride out all the ups and downs of the market for 39 years ****EXCEPT**** for these handful of extremely good days.

If there were a graph showing the most lucky SOB in all history (holding for 39 years except being lucky enough to avoid the 5 -50 worst days) you would see the same effect in the upward direction.

yeah it goes both ways - (this is some crap I found with google from some outfit called St. Louis Trust https://www.stlouistrust.com/should-i-sell-out-of-the-stock-market/ )

https://www.stlouistrust.com/should-i-sell-out-of-the-stock-market/

Image result for chart of missing the worst days in the market

 

At some point I think you have to realize that you are just guessing (maybe educated guessing). That is what I've been trying to get my Dad to understand; he likes to pick sector funds, and I tell him that I hope he gets lucky picking which one is going to do well over the next 6 months. But he cuts the underperformers after a month or two and then lets that money sit on the sideline and that hurts his returns. 
But he's almost 90 and has idle time every day to try to find someplace to put his money into next; oh had he loves to chase high yield dividend plays. But I haven't been able to convince him that we should pick a couple of market funds (SPY, IJT, IWM) or just ladder some CD's - but then what would he do all day?

Edited by Wally Fairway
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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10738

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Even the big houses suggest index funds when you have more money.  When I had 200k it was all stock picker bullshit. That changed when it’s an account they really care about.  So it seems anyway.  

It’s amazing how much you not-so-humble brag to a bunch of internet strangers. I can’t imagine how insufferable you are around people where it might actually matter.
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TexArcher

TexArcher 39037

Posted
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On 8/9/2019 at 3:04 PM, Rusty Shackelford said:

I don't have anything against the boglehead club, but you would have to be the most unlucky SOB in history to ride out all the ups and downs of the market for 39 years ****EXCEPT**** for these handful of extremely good days.

If there were a graph showing the most lucky SOB in all history (holding for 39 years except being lucky enough to avoid the 5 -50 worst days) you would see the same effect in the upward direction.

This is true enough.

But indexing isn't just about being invested on all trading days.  It's mostly about hitting all of the winners.  Every year, a relatively small amount of stocks drive a huge percentage of the market gains.  And when you look back to Jan 1, there was very little buzz around at least a few of them, i.e. chances are your money manager missed them.  This is part of why it's so difficult for money managers to beat the index net of fees over any long period (and if they do, what insane beta are you looking at?).

It's important to note that what most people mean by indexing, buying the S&P, will also miss a lot of those winners because they're mid caps and small caps that explode.  If you're going to index, do it right and get something based off the Wilshire 5000 and mix in some MSCI EAFE.  And hold it for the long term.  And dollar cost average.  Profit.

Edited by TexArcher
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21345

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17 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:


It’s amazing how much you not-so-humble brag to a bunch of internet strangers. I can’t imagine how insufferable you are around people where it might actually matter.

Holy shit. It’s the fucking markets thread.  And pretty fucking relevant.  So you can fucking ignore me.  I’ve posted my cars here. I’ve never posted a single watch, no selfie w jet bullshit, zero boats.  Zero houses.  So do me a favor and ignore me or STFU.  

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21345

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21 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:


It’s amazing how much you not-so-humble brag to a bunch of internet strangers. I can’t imagine how insufferable you are around people where it might actually matter.

 

18 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

Sorry.  Should have just posted this.  Kiss my ass.  

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10738

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Holy shit. It’s the fucking markets thread.  And pretty fucking relevant.  So you can fucking ignore me.  I’ve posted my cars here. I’ve never posted a single watch, no selfie w jet bullshit, zero boats.  Zero houses.  So do me a favor and ignore me or STFU.  

There you go again.
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23716

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3 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Holy shit. It’s the fucking markets thread.  And pretty fucking relevant.  So you can fucking ignore me.  I’ve posted my cars here. I’ve never posted a single watch, no selfie w jet bullshit, zero boats.  Zero houses.  So do me a favor and ignore me or STFU.  

Personally, I think that you are an asshole for not posting pics of jets and boats garnished with tits. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21345

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On 8/12/2019 at 10:07 PM, TonyTexas said:


There you go again.

I can keep helping people on here save money on nice shit and give my two cents on money issues or I can get turned off by a jealous pussy like you talking shit.  I think I’ll keep being me.  

Also I’ll post some nice watches and tag your ass later.  All in good fun.  

 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21345

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21 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Why can I only see two of the tits?

Why are they all facing the other way?

What kind of Communist shit is this?

LOL, I'll try to get better ones but at the same time protect whoever's identity in the pics around you crazy bastards.  See the can of worms this shit opens? 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19453

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7 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Holy shit. It’s the fucking markets thread.  And pretty fucking relevant.  So you can fucking ignore me.  I’ve posted my cars here. I’ve never posted a single watch, no selfie w jet bullshit, zero boats.  Zero houses.  So do me a favor and ignore me or STFU.  

He will claim to have you on ignore but still respond to your posts every now and then. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23716

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21 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I think any negative days we need to post T/A.  Things are going much better.  And even if it doesn’t work, can’t have too much T/A in a thread.  

Looks like it's gonna be one of those days.

tight_dresses_01.jpg

 

 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47127

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You know, there are ways to rotate various ETFs, index funds, mutual funds, bonds, whatever (choose your poison) based on what is performing well and outperform the market long term, with high Sharpe & Sortino ratios.  I'll get crucified for being a "curve fitter" so that's all I'll say but when the selection is small, diverse, and the rules are simple (e.g. trade last day of month only), then maybe that's not curve-fitting, maybe that's just saying that markets don't actually crash in a one-month time frame.  (Never mind that an all-in-on-SPY approach is just as exposed to market crashes.)

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