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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

- All Nikkei/Japan Longs, 1991-2023
 

If you believe that that is where this is headed, there are market bets you can make that will secure a very comfortable retirement for you and throw off cash starting tomorrow. Let us know what positions you take. 

Edited by Anastasis
Posted
2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

If you believe that that is where this is headed, there are market bets you can make that will secure a very comfortable retirement for you and throw off cash starting tomorrow. Let us know what positions you take. 

I don’t have a thesis at this point, but do you? It sounds like you just have a default.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Warren Buffet is in cash and God caught the last train for the coast, my dude.

Good. BRK is my third largest holding in my trading account, behind free money (employer stock) and a 7%+ yield dividend payer. 

Posted
29 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I’m open to trusting.  What are we basing it on?  Legitimate question for people feeling bullish that the worst has past.

The world is not ending.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I don’t have a thesis at this point, but do you? It sounds like you just have a default.

Near term high volatility. Make money on both sides. By end of summer we are north of here. Get OTM Sept calls on the dips (e.g. last Friday). Shed the July calls ASAP on a bump. Those may be hosed. For long term investments, keep doing what you have been doing for the last 20 years. Averaging in. 

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Posted
Love the casual hand wave as to…everything.
And ffs, on #4, that’s literally from business owners themselves. Incoming China trade is rapidly shutting down. No inventory, no business.
Nobody in the world except Ron Vara thinks we’re not in a crisis.

I guarantee you #4 is happening. Tariff is applied on ship date. If companies didn’t have the cash to load up Nov - March, they are fucked or they are scrambling for new suppliers - which also costs money and time.
Posted
14 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

The world is not ending.

Well, I certainly hope you are correct, but that’s a bit light on how things have materially normalized to something close to what they were before liberation day.  I’m looking for indicators vs faith.

Posted
16 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Near term high volatility. Make money on both sides. By end of summer we are north of here. Get OTM Sept calls on the dips (e.g. last Friday). Shed the July calls ASAP on a bump. Those may be hosed. For long term investments, keep doing what you have been doing for the last 20 years. Averaging in. 

Right. Default to normalcy, but with volatility. That’s what I thought you meant. What am I missing?

Posted
2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Right. Default to normalcy, but with volatility. That’s what I thought you meant. What am I missing?

I don't think you are missing much. I think that that is basically correct. You asked for my thesis. Bet on warren, bet on solid dividends, trade like a cat in the near term. Stay the course with long term retirement portfolio. You brought up Japan lost decades, but that you don't seem to believe that is where we are heading with any conviction. 

Posted
33 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I don’t have a thesis at this point, but do you? It sounds like you just have a default.

Don’t fight the Fed. 
 

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covid shutdown of global economy, not just certain trade partners, caused plenty of supply chain shocks, global reordering. They still pumped this market after that crash. 

6 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I hate the future.

Hey, it’s better than google search now. 

Posted
18 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Well, I certainly hope you are correct, but that’s a bit light on how things have materially normalized to something close to what they were before liberation day.  I’m looking for indicators vs faith.

My post was the indicator.

Posted
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

They sit on the sideline during periods of high volatility and whine on the internet?

What does that have to do with trusting? The market is volatile because of a lack of trust. An investor that trusts whatever we are going to do right now is a fool. Playing the volatility is definitely an aggressive play that conceptually I agree with. But, as you've indicated earlier in this thread, it is also straight gambling. Gamble away I say (especially if you're hedging like you say you're doing). Just do it with open eyes. The investor that is "trusting" isn't doing that. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

You brought up Japan lost decades, but that you don't seem to believe that is where we are heading with any conviction

I’m still thinking about it. But the reason why I brought up Japan is that scenario (and our own lost decades, punctuated by crisis from 2001-2013) makes me consider if there are fundamental changes that would make a new normal more likely than the old normal, and if so, what is that new normal going to look like and when will it have clear direction? 

I don’t know what will happen, but I do think a new normal is more likely than a return to the old one. I do not have any conviction yet about what it’s likely to be. 

I’m not worried about losing a buying opportunity. There are plenty of those every day. I’m worried about failures of imagination. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’m still thinking about it. But the reason why I brought up Japan is that scenario (and our own lost decades, punctuated by crisis from 2001-2013) makes me consider if there are fundamental changes that would make a new normal more likely than the old normal, and if so, what is that new normal going to look like and when will it have clear direction? 

I don’t know what will happen, but I do think a new normal is more likely than a return to the old one. I do not have any conviction yet about what it’s likely to be. 

I’m not worried about losing a buying opportunity. There are plenty of those every day. I’m worried about failures of imagination. 

That's fair. Look our market is still the 800lb gorilla. We need a new normal vv China. If it takes some short term pain to get there, I am ok with that. If we can't execute that play due to incompetence, I think that we are basically in the same place we were before. Everyone knows (or should know) that it's all a house of cards. The market is fake news and has been for some time, way over inflated. Real estate, lofl. If shit gets really bad, we all go long cabrito (RIP El Azteca).  

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Posted

Listened to a podcast (Planet Money?) and they made a point that I didn't think about...

 

With the trade deficit, the foreign countries have to spend the dollars somewhere. A lot of it end up being invested back into the US in buying bonds, stocks, businesses, houses, etc.  Maybe the orange turd should listen to it, but won't because... NPR.

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Posted
18 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Every single "crisis" has worked out to the upside with sufficient time horizon. The backstops are monetary policy and aircraft carriers. But maybe this time is different. 

Ya think?

Posted

I'm jumping in this "argument" but something I've been tracking for the past year. Multiple institutions were predicting bonds would outperform stocks over the next 10 years, Vanguard being one. I recently read there were zero inside buyers in the Mag 7 over the past year (not 100% certain on exact time-frame, actually). I did not verify this. 

These moves are volatile for obvious reasons, but I still believe we were going from point A (high) to point B (low) one way or another. The volatility in getting there is short-term trader fear, IMO. 

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/goldman-sachs-surprising-investment-forecast

A couple of funds I've dipped into that seem to be poised for success and have kept the momentum from this week's "rally", YNM and ARGT (Vietnam and Argentina ETFs).

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Posted
17 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Love the casual hand wave as to…everything.
And ffs, on #4, that’s literally from business owners themselves. Incoming China trade is rapidly shutting down. No inventory, no business.
Nobody in the world except Ron Vara thinks we’re not in a crisis.

Why are you arguing with GRUHorn? 

Posted
16 hours ago, Tailgate said:

The world is not ending.

I mean, the world didn’t end during the Great Depression, World War II, the Spanish flu, the dark ages, the black plague, ice ages or even extinction level events.

 

But it sure as hell got unpleasant to live here for extended periods of time. Real unpleasant. I, for one, do not wish to live in interesting times, and there is a reason that is a Chinese curse. 
 

 

Posted
On 3/19/2025 at 8:31 AM, horn4life said:

That's not why.  I just think that we will become a less and less desirable place for foreigners to spend their money.  I thought there were about 80% fewer internationals on SoCo during SXSW this year.  The fortune article I think may have grossly underestimated the decline.   I view the US much like I view the way the wife and I choose which restaurants we go to.  We choose the places where we like the people, and spend our money there.  

This is going to be one of those things that I do not think will flesh out for a while.  And trying to anticipate BEFORE everyone else figures things out is a very good thing in investing.  

I need to so some research on this, but perhaps I can yuse the power of surly combined with my lack of time, and let you guys help me with the research.  have a great day all

Bump on an old topic of discussion, US tourism is getting obliterated.

rcxl2w1gwaue1.jpeg

It's probably a combination of the black bag gulags and the arbitrarily high prices driving them away. And once we finish harvesting the national forests and selling off the national parks there won't be anything to come see anyways

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Posted
13 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

I recently read there were zero inside buyers in the Mag 7 over the past year (not 100% certain on exact time-frame, actually). I did not verify this. 

Even if true I am not sure that says much, most of those insiders would not be buying stock since they are getting RSUs from the company anyway and with the stock increases over the last couple years they are likely already overweight in Mag 7. 

Posted
12 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Bump on an old topic of discussion, US tourism is getting obliterated.

rcxl2w1gwaue1.jpeg

It's probably a combination of the black bag gulags and the arbitrarily high prices driving them away. And once we finish harvesting the national forests and selling off the national parks there won't be anything to come see anyways

I think the big number is 

Quote

The total number of overseas visitors travelling to the US dropped by 12 per cent year-on-year in March

That seems like a really big drop, I know SXSW sucked this year but….Also Easter was in March last year so that might account for a couple %, but it’s still a like a 10% drop.

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Posted

And because why would we go hours without something changing 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-124707368.html

Quote

(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump’s administration exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs, potentially cushioning consumers from sticker shock while benefiting electronics giants including Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co.

That should help out the Mag 7 come Monday. 

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Posted
45 minutes ago, hornbri said:

Even if true I am not sure that says much, most of those insiders would not be buying stock since they are getting RSUs from the company anyway and with the stock increases over the last couple years they are likely already overweight in Mag 7. 

While I get what you’re saying, the term insiders encompasses more than just officers and directors who receive stick benefits.

Posted
24 minutes ago, hornbri said:

And because why would we go hours without something changing 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-124707368.html

That should help out the Mag 7 come Monday. 

 

16 minutes ago, immamac said:

Holy fuck. This is wild. 

That presumes that the manufacturers will WANT to throw us a bone. Asus, Lenovo, Razer, and other manufacturers just plain stopped sales in the US altogether (prior to this announcement) and what reasons do they have to expect a less volatile trading partner? 

I could really see US markets losing favored status because of all this fuckery, and losing the benefit of access to economies of scale for the consumer goods that fuel our economic cycle

Posted
4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

 

That presumes that the manufacturers will WANT to throw us a bone. Asus, Lenovo, Razer, and other manufacturers just plain stopped sales in the US altogether (prior to this announcement) and what reasons do they have to expect a less volatile trading partner? 

I could really see US markets losing favored status because of all this fuckery, and losing the benefit of access to economies of scale for the consumer goods that fuel our economic cycle

Samsung, micron, Sandisk, SK Hynix all say hi. The consumer side is visible, but the enterprise dram hbm and NAND are combined for 75%+ of the BOM of all enterprise/AI spend. 

Posted
26 minutes ago, hornbri said:

And because why would we go hours without something changing 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-124707368.html

That should help out the Mag 7 come Monday. 

Well, there is good and bad news here.  The good news?  He’s not a mad king intent on burning it all to the ground.  Appeals can be made for relief.  I am sure there will be theatrics, shakedowns and more “great times to invest!”, but no intentional driving the bus off the cliff.

Which is not to say there is not more bad than good that will come about with his antagonistic economic policies.  The world will play ball with the U.S., its dollar and markets (because it has to) while striving to disconnect from them (because that’s in their strategic interest).  No one knows what will be the outcome of that.

The bad news?

 

 

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Posted
52 minutes ago, Goredho said:

The world will play ball with the U.S., its dollar and markets (because it has to) while striving to disconnect from them (because that’s in their strategic interest).  No one knows what will be the outcome of that.

 

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Unfortunately, history has made it pretty abundantly clear what will happen. Putting a country like China, that was already preparing for conflict, already on shaky economic footing, into a genuine recession,  where their gigantic manufacturing base is no longer asked to build the world’s shit… they will re-purpose all that production capacity for war and then lash out. 

Posted
15 minutes ago, B00M said:

Ok cool, so it’s really just small business owners and every day Americans that get hammer fucked into losing everything and then the ashes get swept into the pockets of the oligarchy 👌

 

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Posted
I expect a lot of bawling about the government "picking winners".

Trump is picking winners and losers. Small company that can only get some items from China - tough shit. Apple - we got you.

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