Markets still falling like whoa

[hornhorn 100]

On 8/31/2019 at 12:44 PM, atomheartbevo said:

I could be reading it wrong, but Apple's 15% phone tariffs got pushed back to December, but the 30% tariffs for the computers and accessories are kicking in tomorrow.  Apple is not going to eat 30%, and I doubt FoxConn, etc. are willing to eat that either.  Well, I suppose the workers who die from exhaustion could be ground up into Soylent Green, and that would help offset both disposal and food costs, but still, 30% is quite a bit.

They may eat some of that, but prices are going to go up for consumers, even if it's only 10% or 20%.

 

On 9/2/2019 at 10:28 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Why would Apple get an exemption?  It's not like Tim Apple is Trump's daughter.

 

U.S. trade regulators approve some Apple tariff exemptions amid broader reprieve

 

Spoiler

(Reuters) - U.S. trade regulators on Friday approved 10 out of 15 requests for tariff exemptions filed by Apple Inc (AAPL.O) amid a broader reprieve on levies on computer parts, according to a public docket published by the U.S. Trade Representative and a Federal Register notice.

 

 

FILE PHOTO: The logo of Apple is seen at a store in Zurich, Switzerland January 3, 2019. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann

The move by U.S. officials could make it easier for both Apple and small makers of gaming computers to assemble devices in the United States by lowering the costs of importing parts.

Apple did not say why it requested the exemptions, but the requests were for components such as partially completed circuit boards. Apple manufactures its Mac Pro computers in Texas, making the machine immune from tariffs, but such intermediate parts were subject to the levies.

Apple did not immediately return a request for comment.

 

The Mac Pro computer starts at $6,000 and is intended for users such as music and motion picture studios. Due to its specialized design, the device has never sold in large numbers. But it became a political flashpoint earlier this year when The Wall Street Journal reported that Apple was moving production to China.

Apple never publicly commented on its exact production plans, but U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods complicated the assembly of PCs in the United States. The third list of U.S. tariffs that went into effect last year placed levies on both some fully assembled PCs as well as the major components to make them, meaning manufacturers faced cost increases even if they made machines in the United States.

The tariffs also hit the PC gaming industry, where enthusiasts often assemble their own custom machines from parts, many from China.

Apple applied for the exemptions for some components but President Donald Trump said U.S. regulators would not grant them. Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook later said during the company’s July 30 earnings call that Apple wanted to keep making Mac Pros in the United States.

 

“We want to continue to be here,” he told analysts on the call, adding that Apple was investing in capacity to do so.

On Friday, trade officials lifted tariffs on a range of computer components for Apple and all other manufacturers, including partially assembled main circuit boards and graphics cards. Those are critical to computer assemblers because they contain chips from Intel Corp (INTC.O), Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD.O). Those chips are typically some of the most expensive parts in the machines.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-apple/u-s-trade-regulators-approve-some-apple-tariff-exemptions-amid-broader-reprieve-idUSKBN1W52J2

[Fudge Nuggets 19453]

WeWork CEO got shitcanned

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/24/business/dealbook/wework-ceo-adam-neumann.html

 

[Reagan1k 3042]

Pigs get fat and hogs....

Dumb-ass got greedy.  He probably could have slipped this IPO through and cashed out were it not for the trademark deal and half a billion person loan.

SoftBank was dying to get this to the street and he raised enough eyebrows that no one could look past the stink.

 

[hornhorn 100]

13 minutes ago, Reagan1k said:

Pigs get fat and hogs....

Dumb-ass got greedy.  He probably could have slipped this IPO through and cashed out were it not for the trademark deal and half a billion person loan.

SoftBank was dying to get this to the street and he raised enough eyebrows that no one could look past the stink.

 

He has already liquidated $700 million of his stock. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13725]

I don’t pretend to understand all of the WeWork drama but it seems like a fundamental problem when the CEO has the full confidence of the shareholders weeks ago, and is forced out today.

The shareholders are listening to outsiders say the CEO is a problem, which presumably contradicts the shareholders’ previous opinions. Wouldn’t that also imply that the shareholders’ previous valuation of WeWork could also be just as suspect?  

 

[NowThis 931]

Jevan Snead worked at WeWork

on the macro -- IMO Dow is headed to 24,500 - 25,000 by Dec 31. Something will hit the market as an excuse for major profit taking. There's no reason to go beyond 27k, things are too perfect right now.  Just a hunch.

Edited September 25, 2019 by NowThis

[Bozo_Casanova 26841]

4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Wouldn't that also imply that the shareholders’ previous valuation of WeWork could also be just as suspect?  

 

Edited September 25, 2019 by Bozo_Casanova

[bernorange 8385]

Didn't see this mentioned anywhere, but it seems somewhat significant, so...

Quote

Last Friday the Federal Reserve Bank of New York made it clear that its interventions in the overnight repo lending market were going to be a longer-term action. Call it what you will, the Fed has effectively returned to quantitative easing (QE) where it buys up Treasuries, Federal agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from financial institutions in exchange for loans.

According to the New York Fed, the program has now been extended to at least October 10 and likely thereafter in one form or another. The Fed will be pumping in $75 billion daily in overnight repo loans while infusing $30 billion in 14-day term loans three times this week for a total of $90 billion in term loans.

The fact that there is one or more financial firms needing $30 billion on a two-week basis and can’t get it from anyone but the Fed isn’t confidence inspiring.
...

More:  https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/09/what-has-frightened-wall-street-banks-from-lending-in-the-repo-market/

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

22 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Didn't see this mentioned anywhere, but it seems somewhat significant, so...

More:  https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/09/what-has-frightened-wall-street-banks-from-lending-in-the-repo-market/

yep, been seeing that for the las week or so.  I wish they would tell us which banks are receiving the loans from the Fed, there must be a reason no other banks are willing to give them a loan.

[Fudge Nuggets 19453]

No kidding. This is one of those things that isn’t a big deal until it becomes a big deal. All crashes have a liquidity crisis as a key component. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19453]

9 hours ago, NowThis said:

Something will hit the market as an excuse for major profit taking.

I’m banking on BREXIT being the excuse. 

[TonyTexas 10737]

I don’t pretend to understand all of the WeWork drama but it seems like a fundamental problem when the CEO has the full confidence of the shareholders weeks ago, and is forced out today.
The shareholders are listening to outsiders say the CEO is a problem, which presumably contradicts the shareholders’ previous opinions. Wouldn’t that also imply that the shareholders’ previous valuation of WeWork could also be just as suspect?  
 

[hornhorn 100]

New IPOs this year so far:

Uber: Down 40%

Lyft: Down 40%

Slack: Down 40%

Smile Direct Club: Opened at $18 last week, today trading around $13

Peloton: Opened today at $28, trading ended at $25.81

Ouch!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13725]

Business Insider account of WeWork going from a proposed valuation of 47B to potential bankruptcy in 6 weeks: https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo

 

 

[futureman 22691]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Business Insider account of WeWork going from a proposed valuation of 47B to potential bankruptcy in 6 weeks: https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo

[52-80 19377]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Business Insider account of WeWork going from a proposed valuation of 47B to potential bankruptcy in 6 weeks: https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo

 

 

NelsonMuntz.gif

[Aqua Buddha 14803]

WeWork fucking lulz.  It's the poster child of everything wrong with modern capitalism.  (There's a lot right but a lot wrong, too.)  Company was a colossal money loser using a business model that has been proven not to work.  Their argument was that they were making money but the losses were from growth but they needed the growth to make money yet the growth was driving the losses.  Despite huge losses, CEO has a G6 and then we learn the whole company is basically a front for him and his family to grift.

Today the WSJ is reporting that the entire family and crew has been shit canned and they'll be out of money by early 2020.

Edited September 30, 2019 by Aqua Buddha

[The Royal We 3100]

A good friend of mine from UT sold his company to WeWork not that long ago, so I can't enjoy the schadenfreude.  It's pretty unbelievable to watch this whole thing unfold though. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19453]

16 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

A good friend of mine from UT sold his company to WeWork not that long ago, so I can't enjoy the schadenfreude.  It's pretty unbelievable to watch this whole thing unfold though. 

If he sold his company to them, then isn't he off the hook and they are the bagholders?  Sounds like he's the smart one in the deal as long as he wasn't paid in WeWork "stock".  I mean he didn't sell out for WeWork stock did he?

Edited September 30, 2019 by Fudge Nuggets

[Captainant 28507]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

If he sold his company to them, then isn't he off the hook and they are the bagholders?  Sounds like he's the smart one in the deal as long as he wasn't paid in WeWork "stock".  I mean he didn't sell out for WeWork stock did he?

Most acquisitions are financed through stock swaps, so he's probably furked. 

[The Royal We 3100]

Yea, I don't know what the cash/stock split was on his deal, but there have been other articles out there discussing how investors in companies who sold to WeWork are not happy about getting stock.  Hopefully he got some cash out of the deal.

[Storm the Field 5366]

Horrible number for the ISM manufacturing index this morning. Worst in a decade and the market started hemorrhaging.

[Wally Fairway 5674]

2 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Horrible number for the ISM manufacturing index this morning. Worst in a decade and the market started hemorrhaging.

[Captainant 28507]

6 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Horrible number for the ISM manufacturing index this morning. Worst in a decade and the market started hemorrhaging.

I have it on good authority we made manufacturing great again, so that can't be true. 

[Storm the Field 5366]

Just now, Captainant said:

I have it on good authority we made manufacturing great again, so that can't be true. 

I was also informed that trade wars are good and easy to win, and that not using tariffs is idiotic, so this seems all hard to square.

[jdhorn92 1594]

On 9/26/2019 at 3:20 PM, hornhorn said:

New IPOs this year so far:

Uber: Down 40%

Lyft: Down 40%

Slack: Down 40%

Smile Direct Club: Opened at $18 last week, today trading around $13

Peloton: Opened today at $28, trading ended at $25.81

Ouch!

Longhorn running Peloton, got a nice payday.  Had many a good time with that dude.

[Wally Fairway 5674]

36 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I have it on good authority we made manufacturing great again, so that can't be true. 

 

34 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

I was also informed that trade wars are good and easy to win, and that not using tariffs is idiotic, so this seems all hard to square.

Then it has to be the Fed's fault; I heard that on twitter too.

[hornhorn 100]

42 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Horrible number for the ISM manufacturing index this morning. Worst in a decade and the market started hemorrhaging.

If you look at the actual data, the drops are in Inventories(-3.0), Production(-2.2) and Export(-2.3) which are all directly related to trade. Fix trade and it will fix ISM, no need to panic.

Just yet. 

 

https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm?SSO=1

[babysdaddy 2731]

22 hours ago, Captainant said:

Most acquisitions are financed through stock swaps, so he's probably furked. 

For WeWork, their acquisitions were either all cash or some cash/stock.  It made 'sense' for We to try and use their stock earlier this year as much as they could given how high their stock was valued at their last funding round.

[Bozo_Casanova 26841]

If you look at the actual data, the drops are in Inventories(-3.0), Production(-2.2) and Export(-2.3) which are all directly related to trade. Fix trade and it will fix ISM, no need to panic.
Just yet. 
 
https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm?SSO=1

Fix trade eh? That sounds easy.

[hornhorn 100]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

Fix trade eh? That sounds easy.

There you go again, cloak rooming it. Give it a rest will ya?

 

Fixing trade in this regard doesn't mean getting a deal. It means giving some sort of a certain path for companies to make Capex decisions moving forward. That can be done without having a deal in place. 

[Blotto 24011]

52 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

Longhorn running Peloton, got a nice payday.  Had many a good time with that dude.

Hope he cashes out ASAP before his stock takes a GoPro-like dive to irrelevance. The number of companies with flawed business models going public is really something else. 

Edited October 1, 2019 by Blotto

[Wally Fairway 5674]

19 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Hope he cashes out ASAP before his stock takes a GoPro-like dive to irrelevance. The number of companies with flawed business models going public is really something else. 

Yup - we are partying like it's 1999

This message is brought to you by Pets.com, eToys.com and Webvan

[Bozo_Casanova 26841]

2 hours ago, hornhorn said:

There you go again, cloak rooming it. Give it a rest will ya?

 

Fixing trade in this regard doesn't mean getting a deal. It means giving some sort of a certain path for companies to make Capex decisions moving forward. That can be done without having a deal in place. 

Yes, as a former product manager and strategic planner for a global multi-billion dollar global electronics business I understand what it means. Creating certainty for capex decisions and supply chain planning is non-trivial under normal circumstances, and these are not that. The fact is that the domestic political climate and the uncertainties of a trade war are  in fact exerting a discernable impact on the global supply chain, so we all pretty much fucking live in the Cloak Room now.

 

Sorry if that hurts your feelings, submit your complaints to Peter Navarro.

[Bozo_Casanova 26841]

I just got a bunch of cash out of some RSUs and for want of anything else good to do I opened a Betterment account yesterday that is 90% stock.

 

So, we're fucked now for sure. 

Edited October 1, 2019 by Bozo_Casanova

[hornhorn 100]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Yes, as a former product manager and strategic planner for a global multi-billion dollar global electronics business I understand what it means. Creating certainty for capex decisions and supply chain planning is non-trivial under normal circumstances, and these are not that. The fact is that the domestic political climate and the uncertainties of a trade war are  in fact exerting a discernable impact on the global supply chain, so we all pretty much fucking live in the Cloak Room now.

 

Sorry if that hurts your feelings, submit your complaints to Peter Navarro.

No we don't, this thread is particularly created to discuss the markets but you cannot help it but lace it with your political opinions. We get it, you dislike Trump and Republicans. You've made that clear plenty of times on this thread already. I guess I'll leave you to repeating it over and over and over. 

And over.

 

[sidis 10013]

13 minutes ago, hornhorn said:

No we don't, this thread is particularly created to discuss the markets but you cannot help it but lace it with your political opinions. We get it, you dislike Trump and Republicans. You've made that clear plenty of times on this thread already. I guess I'll leave you to repeating it over and over and over. 

And over.

 

so one can analyze and discuss markets in a vacuum with no consideration to policy decisions which play a direct role in regulating those markets, as well as indirectly affecting them?  particularly when it comes to global trade when political policy has been to throw firebombs into the relationship with our three largest trading partners?

okay.

[hornhorn 100]

1 minute ago, sidis said:

so one can analyze and discuss markets in a vacuum with no consideration to policy decisions which play a direct role in regulating those markets, as well as indirectly affecting them?  particularly when it comes to global trade when political policy has been to throw firebombs into the relationship with our three largest trading partners?

okay.

Did they analyze and discuss markets? Or did they just make a post that highlights their political leanings and is cloak room worthy? 

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26841]

 

6 minutes ago, hornhorn said:

Did they analyze and discuss markets? Or did they just make a post that highlights their political leanings and is cloak room worthy? 

 

Project much? this is what you said:

3 hours ago, hornhorn said:

If you look at the actual data, the drops are in Inventories(-3.0), Production(-2.2) and Export(-2.3) which are all directly related to trade. Fix trade and it will fix ISM, no need to panic.

Just yet. 

And this is the offending post that's too political for you:

3 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Fix trade eh? That sounds easy.

Sorry if my actually understanding the reality of global manufacturing supply chains upsets you, but the idea that you can just "fix trade" in this climate is totally inane, as inane as the idea that you can talk about any of this without considering the political climate the way ALL of my former colleague do. 

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26841]

36 minutes ago, hornhorn said:

No we don't, this thread is particularly created to discuss the markets but you cannot help it but lace it with your political opinions. We get it, you dislike Trump and Republicans. You've made that clear plenty of times on this thread already. I guess I'll leave you to repeating it over and over and over. 

And over.

 

Oh, and I don't "dislike Republicans", (although I am certainly no fan of the President) and I don't believe I've ever said anything of the sort on this thread, let alone more than once, so you are cordially invited to post where I have.  

Edited October 1, 2019 by Bozo_Casanova

[jdhorn92 1594]

16 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Yup - we are partying like it's 1999

This message is brought to you by Pets.com, eToys.com and Webvan

Don’t forget JD Uniphase. Broadcast.com hit big though. 

[jimmyjazz 47127]

15 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Yes, as a former product manager and strategic planner for a global multi-billion dollar global electronics business I understand what it means.

I was going to chime in with a snarky "importer/exporter" line, but decided to google it to make sure I got it right.  Turns out George Costanza has a linkedin page:

Vandeley Industries

[Bozo_Casanova 26841]

And you want to be my latex salesman...

[Wally Fairway 5674]

Checking in to see what the Surly experts think about Schwab dropping trading fees to $0. 
To me it seems like it sounds good, but makes me wonder if they are going to make up for it by pay for orders or other "backdoor" schemes. I mean it isn't like they can make up for the lost revenue by getting more orders.

Should I move my Schwab account before I save too much on trades? If so where should I move to?
Just kidding, I will likely save than $200 with this reduction in fees, so not enough to change investment decisions.

[Anastasis 23716]

Schwab's been giving away free trades for a while.  When I moved my accounts over to them, they gave me free trades for as many years as I had the account I transferred to them open.  It was like 10+ years worth of free trades.  

[gecko 1104]

39 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

Don’t forget JD Uniphase. Broadcast.com hit big though. 

Sycamore Networks anyone?

[bernorange 8385]

3 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Checking in to see what the Surly experts think about Schwab dropping trading fees to $0. 
To me it seems like it sounds good, but makes me wonder if they are going to make up for it by pay for orders or other "backdoor" schemes. ...

I don't know the details about Schwab's trading schema, but your post reminded me of this:

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/topic/5507-how-does-robinhood-make-money-simple-volume/

 

[Trey3216 15452]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Checking in to see what the Surly experts think about Schwab dropping trading fees to $0. 
To me it seems like it sounds good, but makes me wonder if they are going to make up for it by pay for orders or other "backdoor" schemes. I mean it isn't like they can make up for the lost revenue by getting more orders.

Should I move my Schwab account before I save too much on trades? If so where should I move to?
Just kidding, I will likely save than $200 with this reduction in fees, so not enough to change investment decisions.

Was watching CNBC at lunch yesterday and last time Schwab lowered their fees, they got something like $80bn in new assets under management, much of which went into their in house ETF's.  The fees they made on the ETF's far outweighed the commission rates they would have made otherwise.  

[hornhorn 100]

14 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Was watching CNBC at lunch yesterday and last time Schwab lowered their fees, they got something like $80bn in new assets under management, much of which went into their in house ETF's.  The fees they made on the ETF's far outweighed the commission rates they would have made otherwise.  

Schwab only makes 6% of their revenues via trading and commission fees. TD Ameritrade and Etrade however make 36 and 34 percent of their revenues through trading and commission fees. TDA already announced yesterday that they were going commission free(except for options where they will still charge 0.65/contract). 

That's going to hurt. 

[Trey3216 15452]

3 minutes ago, hornhorn said:

Schwab only makes 6% of their revenues via trading and commission fees. TD Ameritrade and Etrade however make 36 and 34 percent of their revenues through trading and commission fees. TDA already announced yesterday that they were going commission free(except for options where they will still charge 0.65/contract). 

That's going to hurt. 

Oh no doubt.  I was speaking solely on Schwab, which will make up that lost revenue many times over via fees.  TD is set up as clearing platform for many independent advisory firms in the fee based segment as well.  They will lean heavily to increase this part of their business model as well.  It will hurt them in the immediate near term, no doubt, but we'll have to see how it works out for them going forward.