Markets still falling like whoa

[Stella Link 534]

1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

Markets are still falling like whoa.

 

ABC shouldn't have cancelled Roseanne.  Looks like the markets are p.o.'d about it. 

Edited May 29, 2018 by Stella Link

[Trey3216 15381]

TWTR on absolute fire right now.  

[Anastasis 23514]

God bless T. 

[SDG 3319]

9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

God bless T. 

What’s the news? 

[Trey3216 15381]

From the previous, unmentionable site to now, y’all know I have been heavily invested in TWTR and VRX.   Between shares, weekly and long options, I’ve had an incredible few weeks and especially the past few days.   

 

Riding the stocks higher, taking some profits, buying calls and repeating has yielded fairly nicely.   

Starting some positions in some other beat downs now.   

 

Bought AGN after hours today at 159 and bought CELG for 78.90 (also AH) all on the back of some VRX call profits from the last two days.   

 

Letting some VRX Aug 23’s and Oct 24’s ride.   They represent 3x my current Stock position and 1/5 the cost (all bought with profits from sale of shares).    I expect VRX to trade near 30 by Oct, perhaps higher.  

[Superhero 8896]

20 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Bought AGN after hours today at 159 and bought CELG for 78.90 (also AH) all on the back of some VRX call profits from the last two days.   

What's the action at AGN? My wife works there, and I haven't been aware of any recent acquisitions or sales.

CMG has made a nice run since they hired Brian Niccol away from Taco Bell. Too had I bought some back when it was priced at $570 (and more at $390), so I'm still in the red. Not sure if this will ever get back to the glory days.

[Trey3216 15381]

3 hours ago, Superhero said:

What's the action at AGN? My wife works there, and I haven't been aware of any recent acquisitions or sales.

CMG has made a nice run since they hired Brian Niccol away from Taco Bell. Too had I bought some back when it was priced at $570 (and more at $390), so I'm still in the red. Not sure if this will ever get back to the glory days.

I’m more or less a contrarian investor.  AGN is beaten up, but apparently Icahn took a big stake in it (announced AH today).   Big run in some of the Pharma space today, that coupled with Icahn making moves and some other things makes me think we’ll have a run for a bit in the Pharma sector.  AGN/CELG and other beaten down names will run hard (both down nearly 50% from 52 WH)

[jimmyjazz 46501]

I took a small position in ANTM calls at $227 underlying.  Not looking for much, just a small bump on the account.  It's up a bit at the close.

[Anastasis 23514]

19 hours ago, Anastasis said:

God bless T. 

[Anastasis 23514]

11 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I took a small position in ANTM calls at $227 underlying.  Not looking for much, just a small bump on the account.  It's up a bit at the close.

Curious why you like ANTM over UNH, AET, CVS, etc.  Not disagreeing with the pick, just interested in what you see technically to like versus others in the basket.

[jimmyjazz 46501]

It was just flagged by a screen I have used in the past to identify oversold S&P 500 stocks.  It uses a very short term RSI (2 day) along with normal ATR and a couple of other metrics so it's pretty picky.  I didn't write the screen but adapted it from a guy who was pretty active on stockfetcher.  He was very sharp and did excellent backtesting on ideas.

Now that SVXY has reduced their leverage because of the February VIX surge I don't trade it any more.  All historical data are useless because it's a different instrument now.  I need to identify other opportunities, so I'm going back over old strategies to see what worked best.

[Aqua Buddha 14658]

Costco killing it.  11% comps and when you take out gas, it's still +8%.  Stock will close over $200 today.

I keep hearing about new companies being "Costco for millennials."  You know what the Costco for millennials will be?  It'll be Costco.

[jimmyjazz 46501]

Closed out my ANTM a bit early, leaving money on the table.  Oh well.  Made 44% on the trade, ~ 1.5% on the account.  Great day . . . if it could be done every day.

I continue to close in on just seeking quick profits on good buy prices.  I wish I had a good way to simulate it, but it would either cost me a crap ton to buy the data or no go.

[Anastasis 23514]

30 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Closed out my ANTM a bit early, leaving money on the table.  Oh well.  Made 44% on the trade, ~ 1.5% on the account.  Great day . . . if it could be done every day.

I continue to close in on just seeking quick profits on good buy prices.  I wish I had a good way to simulate it, but it would either cost me a crap ton to buy the data or no go.

Needs to be set to Ice Cube playing in the back ground. 

[Anastasis 23514]

2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Costco killing it.  11% comps and when you take out gas, it's still +8%.  Stock will close over $200 today.

I keep hearing about new companies being "Costco for millennials."  You know what the Costco for millennials will be?  It'll be Costco.

Another one I kept talking myself out of, along with AMZN.  Which is amazingly stupid because those are probably my two largest retail expenses every month, excluding HEB. What a fucking chart.

[jimmyjazz 46501]

9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Needs to be set to Ice Cube playing in the back ground. 

 

[Washpark 176]

48 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Another one I kept talking myself out of.  Which is amazingly stupid because those are probably my two largest retail expenses every month, excluding HEB. What a fucking chart.

I almost invested heavily into Costco before the holidays as all signals said buy but talked myself out bc of the retail broader market issue. I worried it would be dragged down despite its performance. I lose again

[Yarbr 123]

1 hour ago, Washpark said:

I almost invested heavily into Costco before the holidays as all signals said buy but talked myself out bc of the retail broader market issue. I worried it would be dragged down despite its performance. I lose again

I had the same worries and got out of Macy's in February. Not a wise move.

[Aqua Buddha 14658]

I bought Costco a few years back in the $90's.  They're a well run business who pays their employees well and gets great employees as a result.  They're in big, wealthy cities unlike WMT/Sams who are generally in shit locations.  They have a moat around them in regards to AMZN to a degree in that they sell in bulk but also their store brands are really good.  They got VERY oversold after the AMZN/WF deal.  (A lot of retailers did.)

[Yarbr 123]

Canadian Senate passed legal recreational weed tonight. Should start to get really interesting with the Canadian MJ stocks.

Edited June 8, 2018 by Yarbr

[jimmyjazz 46501]

30 minutes ago, Yarbr said:

Canadian Senate passed legal recreational weed tonight. Should start to get really interesting with the Canadian MJ stocks.

Of course, my pot stock would be NY based.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

On 6/7/2018 at 9:11 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

They're in big, wealthy cities unlike WMT/Sams who are generally in shit locations.

Not sure how this is a positive.  The Wal-Mart/Sam’s have localized monopolies in the shit locations.

[Incredulity 11716]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Not sure how this is a positive.  The Wal-Mart/Sam’s have localized monopolies in the shit locations.

You want 10% of a millionaires take home state spent in your store or 60% of someone is who makes 35k?

 

[Trey3216 15381]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

You want 10% of a millionaires take home state spent in your store or 60% of someone is who makes 35k?

 

Well, there are 90 35kers to every 1 millionaire.   Which math do you like best? 

[Incredulity 11716]

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Well, there are 90 35kers to every 1 millionaire.   Which math do you like best? 

What are the objectives? Revenue or net profit or a story that the street will like?

The actual comparison is under 60k vs. over 100k.

 

[Anastasis 23514]

Last week was a good week gentlemen.  Coming week got a lot of shit in play.  I'm feeling like being on the sidelines. 

Edited June 10, 2018 by Anastasis

[Aqua Buddha 14658]

Sam's has $57B in revenue with 600 stores ($95M/store.)  Costco has #130B with around 700 stores ($185M/store).  It's not close between the two.  Costco does over twice the revenue per store.

Edited June 11, 2018 by Aqua Buddha

[Incredulity 11716]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Sam's has $57B in revenue with 600 stores ($95M/store.)  Costco has #130B with around 700 stores ($185M/store).  It's not close between the two.  Costco does over twice the revenue per store.

And all you have to do is set foot in a Costco and a Sam’s Club to witness the difference in Merchandising and Product Quality.

I shop at Costco because I know I am going to get good stuff.  I will totally live with lack of selection and seasonality is offerings to be real confident when I buy stuff it won’t be crap.

[jimmyjazz 46501]

2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Sam's has $57B in revenue with 600 stores ($95M/store.)  Costco has #130B with around 700 stores ($185M/store).  It's not close between the two.  Costco does over twice the revenue per store.

Errr . . . point taken, but 1.95 < 2.  

</anal retentive number geek>

[Aqua Buddha 14658]

2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

And all you have to do is set foot in a Costco and a Sam’s Club to witness the difference in Merchandising and Product Quality.

I shop at Costco because I know I am going to get good stuff.  I will totally live with lack of selection and seasonality is offerings to be real confident when I buy stuff it won’t be crap.

This.

What I like about Costco is what Wall Street doesn't like.  If they cut their payroll and improved their margins, their stock would double overnight.  However, they're more interested in running a good and long term sustainable business than worrying about GMROI for the next quarter like WMT/Sam's.  

It only helps that they're in big wealthy markets.

[Anastasis 23514]

So decision on T/Time Warner deal at 3PM. 

[Trey3216 15381]

10 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

So decision on T/Time Warner deal at 3PM. 

Yep.  Could be very interesting.  

[Anastasis 23514]

Any thoughts on what the action around T looks like post-decision?

[Trey3216 15381]

Just now, Anastasis said:

Any thoughts on what the action around T looks like post-decision?

I think if it's denied T runs to high 30's.  If it's accepted I think it could pull back for a bit in AH, but then run to the optimal deal price which I believe is T= 37.41.  

[Trey3216 15381]

This will also spur an unreal amount of further M&A in the space.  Don't be surprised a bit for someone to lay a $50bn or $60bn valuation on TWTR to try and scoop it up (think AMZN, GOOG, DIS, or MSFT) as a preemptive full streaming media play.  The groundwork is there for it to succeed as a fully functional service, it just needs the right hands.  Those valuations would put the stock at 66 or 80.   

[Anastasis 23514]

6 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I think if it's denied T runs to high 30's.  If it's accepted I think it could pull back for a bit in AH, but then run to the optimal deal price which I believe is T= 37.41.  

So far spot on.  Was up 1.7% or so AH, decision released, down 2% and bouncing around.  

[Trey3216 15381]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

So far spot on.  Was up 1.7% or so AH, decision released, down 2% and bouncing around.  

Yep.   I still think it closes near 36 by end of week 

[Trey3216 15381]

Updated prediction on T/TWX deal.  I bet they get the deal closed tomorrow (friday is triple witching options expiry) and the stock closes up around the optimal deal price of 37.41/share.  Hundreds of thousands of options have been waiting on this deal. Something will give and T has all the motivation in the world to get this consummated immediately.  

[Incredulity 11716]

5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Updated prediction on T/TWX deal.  I bet they get the deal closed tomorrow (friday is triple witching options expiry) and the stock closes up around the optimal deal price of 37.41/share.  Hundreds of thousands of options have been waiting on this deal. Something will give and T has all the motivation in the world to get this consummated immediately.  

[Trey3216 15381]

And here's a good value on that trade right now.  Buy the weekly expiry calls at the 33 strike price right now for .21.  Even if it gets back to 34 that's almost a 5x gain on your $$.  Straight gamble, but we could see it there by this afternoon as well.  

[Anastasis 23514]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

And here's a good value on that trade right now.  Buy the weekly expiry calls at the 33 strike price right now for .21.  Even if it gets back to 34 that's almost a 5x gain on your $$.  Straight gamble, but we could see it there by this afternoon as well.  

[Trey3216 15381]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

I ended up with 1000 of them at an avg of .16.  2 days to recoup some of these losses.  

[Trey3216 15381]

Meanwhile, over at VRX...

 

[jimmyjazz 46501]

I joined your guys' T party at $0.14 so of course they're down to $.1 and falling.  Not worried about losing the whole $0.14 though, it's a tiny lot.  I'm just gonna let it ride.

[Captainant 27989]

4 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

And here's a good value on that trade right now.  Buy the weekly expiry calls at the 33 strike price right now for .21.  Even if it gets back to 34 that's almost a 5x gain on your $$.  Straight gamble, but we could see it there by this afternoon as well.  

I'm joining at .09! Lolz let's waste some gains from my AMD insanity

[Trey3216 15381]

52 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I joined your guys' T party at $0.14 so of course they're down to $.1 and falling.  Not worried about losing the whole $0.14 though, it's a tiny lot.  I'm just gonna let it ride.

Yeah, I went overboard, but TWTR and VRX have treated me well the past 2 weeks.  I figured I may as well try the magic in other name.  I think this tank is way overdone right now on T.  I also think they will try to get the deal finalized by friday, and we'll see it drift back towards yesterday's closing price.  Then we'll have a real T party 

[Trey3216 15381]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

I'm joining at .09! Lolz let's waste some gains from my AMD insanity

AMD is on a damn roll right now. 

[Captainant 27989]

2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

AMD is on a damn roll right now. 

You're telling me! I bought some cheap $15 7/20 calls a few weeks ago and they've shot up 1000% and I've been holding a bunch of AMD since it was $11

[jimmyjazz 46501]

$0.09 may hold as a great buy point.  I see something about $0.08 today, but you're basically at the bottom (so far) . . . <evil laugh>

[Trey3216 15381]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

You're telling me! I bought some cheap $15 7/20 calls a few weeks ago and they've shot up 1000% and I've been holding a bunch of AMD since it was $11

I've been adding to my position since about the same price area (some at 11, some when it dropped below 10).   I have 100 16 weeklies for this week that I bought before close yesterday.  Think I might take the $$ on those in a few minutes.