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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90640

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

I picked a hell of the time to quit my job and create a start up

Depends.  Does your startup involve delivering products/foodstuffs to the doors of customers, and advertises your drivers as being thoroughly vetted, and everything being delivered as being thoroughly disinfected? 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90640

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

You ain't kidding.

 

While speaking in India this morning, Trump tried to tell the world there “probably 10” cases of coronavirus in the US.   We have 36 cases just from the cruise ship from hell.  

And the CDC has only tested around 425 Americans.  Even though most of us think that more than 400 Chinese flew here after New Year’s.   Meanwhile, Canada has tested a lot more than that   A lot more   

Given the stock market drop yesterday, I’m honestly surprised they haven’t completely muzzled the CDC.  

And the Olympic Committee is making noise about the Olympics possibly not happening.   That’s how serious it is in Japan.  

Edited by atomheartbevo
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StruggleBus

StruggleBus 3922

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Depends.  Does your startup involve delivering products/foodstuffs to the doors of customers, and advertises your drivers as being thoroughly vetted, and everything being delivered as being thoroughly disinfected? 

No, not all. It's still makes me a bit uneasy though. My concern would be potential customers tightening budgets in a recession. Companies pay us out of their marketing budget, which typically is quick to get chopped. 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11875

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

No, not all. It's still makes me a bit uneasy though. My concern would be potential customers tightening budgets in a recession. Companies pay us out of their marketing budget, which typically is quick to get chopped. 

Don't bullshit us.  You're a business owner now.  It's all three martini lunches, golf outings and write-offs.

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1699

Posted
Posted

I dumped just about everything I have on Monday morning except my blue-chip-dividend-paying stocks. I got spooked reading too much stuff on internet; seems I'm not alone.   

So now I have a big pile of cash outside the market and I'm worried that I'm not going to recognize the time to jump back in.

The Virus is going to get worse before it gets better, and I expect the market to do the same...but how low? how long? I have no idea.   

My current thought is that 30 days from now, the market overall will be lower than it is today.  Not sure what my next move is other than wait. 

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1656

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, hornhorn said:

 

So those same VIX calls at 17 strike you bought, today are worth $3.5 X 10,000 = $35,000

Those same puts at 17 strike today that you sold, are worth $1.7 X 10,000 = $17,000

You sell those calls and buy back those puts.

$35,000 - $17,000 = $18,000

At its peak that $2,500 is worth $18,000 in less than 2 months. 

This is why VIX works as a hedge. 

So since the VIX is now at/near a 52 week high, and actually like a 5 year high, will this strategy work in reverse?

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5674

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Options update - sold a little yesterday, likely to unload a little more before close today

options-2-25-2020

I'm out of the 3/2 expiry, and sold 2 of the 3/23 contracts - netted just over $9k on those, but (again) to be completely honest about options trading, I've lost more than I'm up over the last 18 months when I started to take hedge positions against my portfolio.
And while the idea is to make money, I have to add that I've slept better having a put hedge in place rather than the stop limit orders that I used to have that had "no cost" but were shitty tools that in actually were better at selling near the bottom than hedging anything.

Also, I did not buy any calls into tomorrows open - as I didn't see value in those going into today's close.
Here is to fighting the fight again tomorrow!

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1656

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

VIX touched 53 a few years back, but I don't know what the close was that day.

Yeah OK I was just looking at closing price.  On 2/6/18 it hit $50.30 but closed at 29.06.  On 8/24/15 it hit 53.29 but closed at 26.05.  Other than that, it closed above today's closing price just a handful of times in the past five years.  The last two times were right around Xmas 2018.

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 11064

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

@ChiTownDoc - market still looking good from your perspective? No sarcasm, I value your insight as much as you can ever really value an anonymous internet forum poster.

Any chatter from your GS guys?

No reply in 30 minutes means he's already in the super duper 1% bunker. We're fucking screwed.

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Captainant

Captainant 28527

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

No, not all. It's still makes me a bit uneasy though. My concern would be potential customers tightening budgets in a recession. Companies pay us out of their marketing budget, which typically is quick to get chopped. 

Sounds like you're about to hop on the struggle bus depending on your business model

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4thgenhorn

4thgenhorn 42

Posted
Posted

The only indicator I’ve used before to “predict” market direction is what investors business daily teaches. Essentially looking for consecutive days of increasing volume, on the upside or the downside. It’s not perfect, but it’s all I know. So I’ll be looking for two or more up days with increasing above average volume. This is why I sold some Friday, consecutive down days with increasing volume. You can read the books by Bill O’Neil to learn more. 
 

Or just dollar cost average in at a random period of your choosing. 

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3392

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Unfortunately for all of us the market pain is a harbinger off coming economic pain.  The upside is by summer time I think things will be headed the right way, but the next two quarter are going to be rough.

Unless the coming drop in world GDP triggers a global recession....which it might.

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Hmmm

Hmmm 155

Posted
Posted

Can someone explain to me how EWY (South Korea Index fund) was in the positive for a good amount of the day.  Trending down now (as I would have expected two days ago).  Out of 10+ stocks in my portfolio, this one of the few that took the least amount of damage today.

BABA is slightly up now after being down most of the (American) day.  Go figure, it ups right after I sell off.

EWY and BABA performed the best in my portfolio and I'm trying to understand.

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StruggleBus

StruggleBus 3922

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s been planned for a while.  He was talking about it during the Fox deal, and it sounded like that was his swan song.  

Now the Mastercard, Salesforce, and Uber Eats CEOs.... 

Was Block actually the co-CEO? I was always under the assumption that he was still COO with a bit fancier title. If Benioff left it would be a big deal.

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Blotto

Blotto 24013

Posted
Posted

Sold half my AAPL 300 puts first thing this morning to lock in a profit. Will hold my CCL puts awhile longer, as well my last SPY hedge and a few others I had owned previously for reasons unrelated to the virus.

Surprisingly, the gamble account came through quite nicely, but that was mostly luck  as I purchased SPY puts Friday afternoon that cashed huge. Retirement accounts gonna do what they do. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5674

Posted
Posted

I almost missed out on this dead cat bounce opportunity; just used about 1/3 of my gains from earlier put to rebuy some end of week and near term puts.

Again, trying to make reap some gains in a down market and not touching (yet) the longer term hedges, those will wait for other events like Covid-19 being a pandemic or the election results

options-2-26-2020

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52-80

52-80 19377

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, 4thgenhorn said:

The only indicator I’ve used before to “predict” market direction is what investors business daily teaches. Essentially looking for consecutive days of increasing volume, on the upside or the downside. It’s not perfect, but it’s all I know. So I’ll be looking for two or more up days with increasing above average volume. This is why I sold some Friday, consecutive down days with increasing volume. You can read the books by Bill O’Neil to learn more. 
 

There's definitely no way a robot can learn this and beat you to the punch.

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2266

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I dumped just about everything I have on Monday morning except my blue-chip-dividend-paying stocks. I got spooked reading too much stuff on internet; seems I'm not alone.   

So now I have a big pile of cash outside the market and I'm worried that I'm not going to recognize the time to jump back in.

The Virus is going to get worse before it gets better, and I expect the market to do the same...but how low? how long? I have no idea.   

My current thought is that 30 days from now, the market overall will be lower than it is today.  Not sure what my next move is other than wait. 

Dumb question here - but assuming you sold Monday morning before things started dropping, even if you don't time the very bottom, aren't you money ahead to buy back in now?  Assuming your're planning on still being in the market 10+ years from now, even if things do get worse in the short term, you'd expect to get back to today's number eventually.  Am I missing something?  The stock market isn't my thing.  

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hopkinsnhorns

hopkinsnhorns 533

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Posted
5 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Dumb question here - but assuming you sold Monday morning before things started dropping, even if you don't time the very bottom, aren't you money ahead to buy back in now?  Assuming your're planning on still being in the market 10+ years from now, even if things do get worse in the short term, you'd expect to get back to today's number eventually.  Am I missing something?  The stock market isn't my thing.  

If you're looking at total shares in ownership, then yes, you would be ahead.  Whether or not the stock will climb back to the highs reached prior to this tumble is not for us to say.  Looking at the long term trends in the market, it would seem inevitable, but there's always uncertainty in the future.  Regardless, if you're in it for the long haul, then yeah, you're still better off having sold off and bought back in at a lower market price.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11875

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Dumb question here - but assuming you sold Monday morning before things started dropping, even if you don't time the very bottom, aren't you money ahead to buy back in now?  Assuming your're planning on still being in the market 10+ years from now, even if things do get worse in the short term, you'd expect to get back to today's number eventually.  Am I missing something?  The stock market isn't my thing.  

Taxes, your individual tax rate, the length you held the stock and your original cost.

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hopkinsnhorns

hopkinsnhorns 533

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Posted
1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

Taxes, your individual tax rate, the length you held the stock and your original cost.

If I'm wrong, I'd love to hear it, but taxes and individual tax rate shouldn't matter if you're trading within an IRA.  You're not pulling money out of your account, just revising your investment profile.  In my case, the money from the sale is sitting in a money market fund until I'm ready to re-invest.  If you're dealing with mutual/index funds, then length of ownership would matter.  Depending on your account, there could be transaction fees for short term investment strategies with these sorts of long investments.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26846

Posted
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Dumb question here - but assuming you sold Monday morning before things started dropping, even if you don't time the very bottom, aren't you money ahead to buy back in now?  Assuming your're planning on still being in the market 10+ years from now, even if things do get worse in the short term, you'd expect to get back to today's number eventually.  Am I missing something?  The stock market isn't my thing.  

See incredulity's point above this, but in your situation I wouldn't have sold - if the goal was to lower your basis, you could sell covered calls, which means you sell the right to buy the stock you own. If the price falls, the option expires worthless and you keep the money. If it rises and gets called away, the net result is better than just selling the stock outright, so if you still want to own it, sell naked puts at a price you're willing to pay until the price falls below that and you're assigned. Rinse, repeat. 

 

I'm outlining a good, low risk strategy under normal conditions. This is not advice. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Incredulity

Incredulity 11875

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, hopkinsnhorns said:

If I'm wrong, I'd love to hear it, but taxes and individual tax rate shouldn't matter if you're trading within an IRA.  You're not pulling money out of your account, just revising your investment profile.  In my case, the money from the sale is sitting in a money market fund until I'm ready to re-invest.  If you're dealing with mutual/index funds, then length of ownership would matter.  Depending on your account, there could be transaction fees for short term investment strategies with these sorts of long investments.

I don't see any reference to an IRA in the original question, so my commentary wasn't referencing trades in an IRA.

The taxes are all deferred to withdrawal on an IRA.  There won't be Cap Gains taxes at that point, It will all be taxed as income.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13726

Posted
Posted (edited)

I just decided tap out of about 60% of my 401k into funds with treasury notes. Most of my stock funds were back to their early Dec balances, so I would rather lock that in, as opposed to losing more.

The good news for the rest of you still in the market, is that I'm always wrong.  But I left 40% just in case there is an uptick. If it goes down, it won't be as painful.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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