Markets still falling like whoa

[Parliament 14594]

When do overnight DOW futures start trading?

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

2 hours ago, Not a cat said:

We all talk like big swinging dicks but 20% kicks in at 435k for single filers.  I'm sure some of us are there (not me) but certainly not most.

Just ChiTownDoc, bro

but he doesn't like to talk about that

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

10 minutes ago, Parliament said:

When do overnight DOW futures start trading?

Doesn’t pre market trading open at 3am central.  I believe Tokyo opens at 6pm central time. 

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

It might have been asked or addressed earlier in the thread but I'll speak to supply chain/inventory overall.  (I may not be pre med but I've spent the past 15 years in retail category management across various categories so I can speak authoritatively on this.)

I'm not talking about any category in particular but more overall (packaged food, electronics, sex toys, etc.)  It's important to not that all categories are different in relation to exposure to imports and materials.  Every item can be different in that regard.

That being said, unlike 20 years ago, there is zero safety stock with any of these categories.  There are not entire warehouses with 60 days of supply just waiting to be orders.  People like me have wrung out all of the excess inventory in the network from production to shelf.  Go look in the backroom of a well run chain store.  There is very little product back there and what is there just arrived.  Same with their DC's.  Every item may have a slot but there isn't much back stock there, either.  If there's an empty slot, more product is arriving that day or the next.  The phrase "Just In Time" really is that.  

There is no slack or fat in any of these supply chains, whether it's import or domestic.  If there is any prolonged disruptions due to materials, labor, etc., it'll take months to recover.  Same with a sales spike.

It's good news that Apple's production in China is back online.  They're kind of a bellweather on this subject.  Everyone is different, though.  It may be bumpy for awhile.

[Francisco 2.0 32587]

3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Doesn’t pre market trading open at 3am central.  I believe Tokyo opens at 6pm central time. 

https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-coronavirus-stock-market-correction-tesla-nvidia-shopify-servicenow/

 

Quote

Dow Jones futures fell sharply Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Expect volatile Dow futures trading following the major indexes' worst week since 2008 as a coronavirus stock market correction took hold. The U.S. reported its first coronavirus death amid concerns of many more infections. Covid-19 cases continue to soar outside of China. Meanwhile, China manufacturing activity contracted at a record pace.

Quote

Dow Jones futures plunged 1.3% vs. fair value, but after falling more than 2% soon after their 6 p.m. ET open. S&P 500 futures retreated 1.3%. Nasdaq 100 futures lost 1.2%. Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

 

 

[Anastasis 23717]

[TexasGolf 5464]

Furk 

[Wally Fairway 5674]

48 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

41 minutes ago, TexasGolf said:

Furk 

-1% ; that's not as bad as I thought, unless it's just the starting point

[TexasGolf 5464]

22 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

 

-1% ; that's not as bad as I thought, unless it's just the starting point

Back up now. 

[Anastasis 23717]

[BradInATX 9208]

i keep a shiny shirt nearby to wear when reading this thread

I'm long on shiny shirts, so thanks for the yacht

[atomheartbevo 90642]

We had 10 new cases today, including one in New York (albeit she caught it in Iran).  We will be probably be hitting 50 and maybe even 100 new cases a day later this week or into next.   And that assisted living facility getting hit with a bunch of elderly cases today is going to rattle a bunch of folks.  Wonder who is making hand sanitizer and other associated goods here in the US.

[Anastasis 23717]

We’re green as a motherfucker rothtbnomew. 

[Wally Fairway 5674]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

We’re green as a motherfucker rothtbnomew. 

11:30 until the market opens, plenty of time for swings in the premarket

[Hmmm 155]

avatar (seems to) checks out swinging a golf club.

[0xdeadbeef 1699]

This is damn stressful.

With the bad Virus news all weekend, I honestly don't see a path for the market to stay flat or climb over the next few months.  I'm freaked out, I think many others are too. And for good reason. 

If you google something like "Can the coronavirus cause a recession", mid last week the results were of the nature "probably not, unless it gets much worse".  Well it is getting worse, and the same google search tonight shows a lot more bleak answers.

On Friday I was thinking I would get back in the market Monday morning and ride it back up a bit. After reading way too much stuff on the internet this weekend, I reversed and put SELL orders in for virtually everything I have, including my beloved blue-chip dividend stocks.   My bottom line question for myself was "Do I think the market is going to be lower is 2-3 months time?" If I had answered "I'm not sure", I would stay in and ride it down and up.  But coronavirus is a dark-ass storm coming and I think it's going to F things up for a while. 

If someone has a different view on things, I'd love to hear it.

 

[0xdeadbeef 1699]

I've never traded extended-hours before, but I put an order in for the pre-market session.  For some reason, its more unsettling than trading on the normal market.  It feels like going to a liqueur store late at night on the bad side of town.  I get the "I probably shouldn't be here" vibe.  The Schwab warning section on it says everything short of "you shouldn't do this", including a warning that most people trading extended hours are professions.  Furk.

 

[washparkhorn 9973]

15 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I've never traded extended-hours before, but I put an order in for the pre-market session.  For some reason, its more unsettling than trading on the normal market.  It feels like going to a liqueur store late at night on the bad side of town.  I get the "I probably shouldn't be here" vibe.  The Schwab warning section on it says everything short of "you shouldn't do this", including a warning that most people trading extended hours are professions.  Furk.

 

 

 

You are braver than me. I wish you the best. 

 

[washparkhorn 9973]

Just a reminder - the Federal Reserve has indicated a willingness to use their "tools" - a signal that rate cuts are not the only tool contemplated.

I hate Federal Reserve speak. 

 

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

We're starting to see mass orders from retail chains and an uptick in buying from customers that's not on trend this time of year.  I wouldn't call it "panic buying" just yet but it's clear that the retail chains are prepping for it.  (I'm talking about consumer staples like food.)

Edited March 2, 2020 by Aqua Buddha

[bernorange 8385]

@washparkhorn - The Fed's toolbox is not a font of unlimited power.  It was just a few months ago (back in October) that the IMF warned that the (global banking) system can't handle a significant shock.  They weren't the only voice over the last year or so saying it, but I mention them to illustrate how mainstream the analysis is. 

[Tailgate 3073]

5 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

This is damn stressful.

With the bad Virus news all weekend, I honestly don't see a path for the market to stay flat or climb over the next few months.  I'm freaked out, I think many others are too. And for good reason. 

If you google something like "Can the coronavirus cause a recession", mid last week the results were of the nature "probably not, unless it gets much worse".  Well it is getting worse, and the same google search tonight shows a lot more bleak answers.

On Friday I was thinking I would get back in the market Monday morning and ride it back up a bit. After reading way too much stuff on the internet this weekend, I reversed and put SELL orders in for virtually everything I have, including my beloved blue-chip dividend stocks.   My bottom line question for myself was "Do I think the market is going to be lower is 2-3 months time?" If I had answered "I'm not sure", I would stay in and ride it down and up.  But coronavirus is a dark-ass storm coming and I think it's going to F things up for a while. 

If someone has a different view on things, I'd love to hear it.

 

This is just my opinion as I know others have different. But for me personally, I’d relax and turn the computer off and not do anything based on your current emotions (freaked out).

Best of luck. I know it’s hard.

[52-80 19377]

 

[bernorange 8385]

Quote

...
Perhaps Friday’s Comex price fall had something to do with the CME Group on Thursday 27 February, where they raised maintenance margins on the Comex 100 oz gold future (GC) by 10% from 5000 to 5500, claiming it was a “normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage“.  Those margin changes went into effect at close of business on Thursday 27 February (effective as of Friday 28 February).  So the stress of higher margin requirements could be a contributing factor to the Comex selloff.
...

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/physical-gold-demand-at-record-levels-paper-gold-price-disconnect/

You'd think by now this sort of thing wouldn't be surprising.

[hornbri 1508]

Costco up 4% on the fear mongering

[bernorange 8385]

Quote

The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on economic prospects is severe

Growth was weak but stabilising until the coronavirus Covid-19 hit. Restrictions on movement of people, goods and services, and containment measures such as factory closures have cut manufacturing and domestic demand sharply in China. The impact on the rest of the world through business travel and tourism, supply chains, commodities and lower confidence is growing.
...

http://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/

Quote

...
The OECD became the first international organisation to sound the alarm about coronavirus on Monday, saying the world economy was “at risk” and warning of the possibility that global growth will halve this year from its previous forecast. Just the effect of the widespread closure of factories and businesses in China was likely to cut 0.5 percentage points from the global growth forecast in 2020, the Paris-based international organisation said, lowering its forecast from an already weak 2.9 per cent to 2.4 per cent. That puts the global economy on the verge of a recession, which is traditionally defined as growth below 2.5 per cent. If there was a “longer lasting and more intensive coronavirus outbreak, spreading widely throughout the Asia-Pacific region, Europe and North America”, prospects would dim further and global growth “could drop to 1.5 per cent in 2020, half the rate projected prior to the virus outbreak,” the OECD added. Calling on governments to act “swiftly and forcefully” on health and economic effects, it called for supportive monetary and fiscal policies to restore confidence even though it recognised that economic policies cannot offset the immediate effects of shutdowns in business activity designed to slow the spread of the virus.
...

https://www.ft.com/content/1356af8c-5c6c-11ea-8033-fa40a0d65a98

[jimmyjazz 47162]

6 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

This is damn stressful.

With the bad Virus news all weekend, I honestly don't see a path for the market to stay flat or climb over the next few months.  I'm freaked out, I think many others are too. And for good reason. 

If you google something like "Can the coronavirus cause a recession", mid last week the results were of the nature "probably not, unless it gets much worse".  Well it is getting worse, and the same google search tonight shows a lot more bleak answers.

On Friday I was thinking I would get back in the market Monday morning and ride it back up a bit. After reading way too much stuff on the internet this weekend, I reversed and put SELL orders in for virtually everything I have, including my beloved blue-chip dividend stocks.   My bottom line question for myself was "Do I think the market is going to be lower is 2-3 months time?" If I had answered "I'm not sure", I would stay in and ride it down and up.  But coronavirus is a dark-ass storm coming and I think it's going to F things up for a while. 

If someone has a different view on things, I'd love to hear it.

Not necessarily a different view, but depending on your account, taxes, etc. you could collar those dividend stocks, which basically limits potential gains in order to limit potential losses.  You sell a call above the current stock price, and use that money to buy a put below the current price.  This "collars" the net value of the position between two close limits.  There is risk that the buyer of the call will call away your stock to reap the dividend, so you have to apply some headroom (which forces less downside protection if you want the collar to remain zero cost).  Talk to your broker.

[Incredulity 11876]

Just heard from a customer that Walmart sent out notices on Friday that they are pulling forward buying to keep shelves stocked.  No idea what that really means.  Just found it interesting.

[atomheartbevo 90642]

11 minutes ago, hornbri said:

Costco up 4% on the fear mongering

Until they start running out of shit to sell. 

[52-80 19377]

14 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Just heard from a customer that Walmart sent out notices on Friday that they are pulling forward buying to keep shelves stocked.  No idea what that really means.  Just found it interesting.

buy call options on Wolf Chili

[workswithseed 2204]

That's not good, looks like lots of people will be unhappy about this.

[Continental Op 3934]

30 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

That's not good, looks like lots of people will be unhappy about this.

Where is that from? 

[workswithseed 2204]

https://status.robinhood.com/

[hornbri 1508]

go go go 

[Celery Man 21095]

Jack Welch dead

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/02/jack-welch-obituary-ge-jack-welch-dies-dead/4927479002/

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Just a reminder - the Federal Reserve has indicated a willingness to use their "tools" - a signal that rate cuts are not the only tool contemplated.
I hate Federal Reserve speak. 
 

Central Banks are going to move the markets in a major way, but 99% are going to miss it once again.

[hornbri 1508]

9 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Central Banks are going to move the markets in a major way, but 99% are going to miss it once again.

Yep - the market is already moving.

I will say it again just buy and hold, you are not smarter then the market. 

[atomheartbevo 90642]

Saudis have their first case.  That should be most of the major players in that area.    Kuwait and Iraq keep increasing, and Iran is bonkers.  Doubt there will be tankers sitting idle off the Saudi coast, as is the case with container ships and China, but it could tear through those counties with no problem.

Edited March 2, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Sgt Hulk 14431]

market with a nice rebound.   Local costcos here in LA have lost their damn minds, likes its a biblical plague 100 year blizzard coming

[Girdwood 118]

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Just heard from a customer that Walmart sent out notices on Friday that they are pulling forward buying to keep shelves stocked.  No idea what that really means.  Just found it interesting.

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Until they start running out of shit to sell. 

Not shit on both counts.  I can tell you that Big Retail is ordering a fuckload of food right now.  We'll see if Big Food can cover.  (Refer to my earlier post about current supply chains.)

 

2 hours ago, hornbri said:

Costco up 4% on the fear mongering

WMT -- +6%

COST -- +9%

 

[dcar00 14955]

3 hours ago, hornbri said:

Yep - the market is already moving.

I will say it again just buy and hold, you are not smarter then the market. 

about 12 days ago I told a work friend that there was at least a 10% dip coming no matter what.  he asked if I was moving anything and I said nope just buy some at the 10% mark.    

[Tailgate 3073]

[Girdwood 118]

Just ordered a pallet of these, you know just in case. Trying to do my part to help out the economy here.

[Henry Hill 3156]

Mega dead cat bounce or are we looking at a rally to 30,000 and beyond?

[Incredulity 11876]

9 minutes ago, Henry Hill said:

Mega dead cat bounce or are we looking at a rally to 30,000 and beyond?

[babysdaddy 2731]

Expect another pull back.  I don't think this was necessarily a dead cat bounce.  That was attempted last Tuesday or Wednesday morning.  This feels more like a bit of short covering and maybe Corona ain't that bad.  If it was a bounce, then look out below.  Short term concern would be explosion of cases and/or a Bernie blowout tomorrow.

[Captainant 28533]

1 minute ago, babysdaddy said:

Short term concern would be explosion of cases and/or a Bernie blowout tomorrow.

I don't buy that a political candidate winning a single state primary could impact the market.

And if that IS possible, then how in the blazing fuck is that market stable, rational, or not propped up on an insane level of ongoing stimulus during already decent economic conditions?

I just think it's giving an old man from vermont a little too much credit to say that the largest drop in a decade is attributable to his actions.

Or, we're operating in a wildly unstable and irrational market that is only in its current state ("30k here we come wooo" after a 10% drop lolwut) due to the constant and ongoing stimulus in the way of corporate and shareholder tax cuts that freed up more capital to dump back into the market.

[babysdaddy 2731]

You don't have to buy it.  My point is that if it was a Bernie blowout (multiple state victory) then it increases the odds of him being the presumptive Democratic nominee.  That in turn increases the chance of him being President which would be negative for equity prices.  Increased risk to equity prices equals reducing equity exposure.  

And the market is not stable, moose out front last week shoulda told ya

[Incredulity 11876]

Without the coronavirus issue there isn't a sell-off like last week.

A Democratic Socialist taking a fairly significant lead in the D primary was a small part of the sell-off for the market, and I don't think would have by itself.