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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, dimyh said:

So what's the speculation for the next couple of weeks? I'm no player but have been holding off on make my annual IRA contribution. Still tons of room to fall? Or should I go ahead and buy in?

Nothings holding you back from making a contribution, you don’t have to buy anything with the cash 

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

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Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Yeah but I would like to add to my index fund at some point. I'm just a buy and hold plebe and don't try to time the market but the insanity now seems like one of those rare opportunities. 

You could add the cash and invest 1/6 for the next 6 months into the funds of your choice if you’re using the same fund.  Buy down or buy up, or both.  

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

Posted
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Yeah but I would like to add to my index fund at some point. I'm just a buy and hold plebe and don't try to time the market but the insanity now seems like one of those rare opportunities. 

Dp 

Edited by Trey3216
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5541

Posted
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6 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Probably a sound time to buy.  Fiddling around starts to look like trying to time the market.  Maybe buy something with half, wait for the other half.

 

6 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

You could add the cash and invest 1/6 for the next 6 months into the funds of your choice if you’re using the same fund.  Buy down or buy up, or both.  

This is sound advice, make the contribution, then buy over the next 4-6 months. Transaction costs have gone close to zero, so the fees shouldn't matter.

That's what I do with my 401k, but I do play with stonks with a small amount in my rollover IRA

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Loco

Loco 3752

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46 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I'm hoping for bad news for the next month.  My company stock program is amazing.  If it tanks I can get it super low plus the 10 percent for the next two quarters and just ride it out since I can't even sell it for 2 years.  Just live off that 7  percent dividend

ticker?

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Skipper

Skipper 6128

Posted
Posted

So can anyone that follows this shit closer than I do explain the tank yesterday with rate cuts (I get baked in) and the jump today?  Outlook for coronavirus hasn't changed good or bad that I've seen.   Bernie's downfall?  Surely that can't be it.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5541

Posted
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12 minutes ago, Skipper said:

So can anyone that follows this shit closer than I do explain the tank yesterday with rate cuts (I get baked in) and the jump today?  Outlook for coronavirus hasn't changed good or bad that I've seen.   Bernie's downfall?  Surely that can't be it.

This should be updated to include coronavirus and other relevant things - but just spin this and see what it says

Image result for why the stock market goes up and down wheel

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Hozz

Hozz 1017

Posted
Posted

 

18 minutes ago, Skipper said:

So can anyone that follows this shit closer than I do explain the tank yesterday with rate cuts (I get baked in) and the jump today?  Outlook for coronavirus hasn't changed good or bad that I've seen.   Bernie's downfall?  Surely that can't be it.

I think that is most of it.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Skipper said:

So can anyone that follows this shit closer than I do explain the tank yesterday with rate cuts (I get baked in) and the jump today?  Outlook for coronavirus hasn't changed good or bad that I've seen.   Bernie's downfall?  Surely that can't be it.

You should listen to traders and fund managers.  That's the 'primary' reason.

 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31440

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Skipper said:

So can anyone that follows this shit closer than I do explain the tank yesterday with rate cuts (I get baked in) and the jump today?  Outlook for coronavirus hasn't changed good or bad that I've seen.   Bernie's downfall?  Surely that can't be it.

I dunno, I just treat the market as a mildly psycho girlfriend or wife.  Trying to rationalize any of it is a fool's errand.  Sometimes the movement in an individual name makes some sense, but not all of it, and the broad market is crazy af.

Long-term, though, it's a pretty good deal.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Anybody know anyone at the SEC to whom I can direct a fraud report under the federal whistle-blower protection?  because yeah...I got a big one on the reel. 

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Not a cat

Not a cat 5652

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

I dunno, I just treat the market as a mildly psycho girlfriend or wife.  Trying to rationalize any of it is a fool's errand.  Sometimes the movement in an individual name makes some sense, but not all of it, and the broad market is crazy af.

Long-term, though, it's a pretty good deal.

So, really not at all like a psycho girlfriend or wife?

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Captainant

Captainant 27638

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Like Costco and other suppliers of doomsday goodies...I would have to think AMZN will post some strong numbers this quarter.

AMZN took it pretty hard in the shorts a couple weeks ago, I'd think they'll have at least some bounce-back in addition to any growth

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5541

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On 1/24/2020 at 10:10 AM, Wally Fairway said:

Can I have you talk to my Dad? 
He doesn't understand this 10 year time frame 
This is part of an email I got from him in October
- I am concerned that, at my age, I am not as aggressive as I should be insofar as investing is concerned. 
He is going to be 89 in April, and he is basically 90%+ in equities, and only a small part of that in a balanced fund. He rebalances twice a year and it drives me crazy. But he really doesn't need the money as his pension and long-term care insurance cover all of his expenses. So it will be eventually, when he passes, it is mine and my brothers - so why not keep it invested. 

He doesn't really have anything else to do - so he regularly sends me investment advice, and the latest stocks with high dividend rates.
 

 

 

On 1/24/2020 at 10:21 AM, ChiTownDoc said:

I’d tell your dad not to change a damn thing.  He has enough money and this is his fun.  Fuck it.  I’d love a beer with him.  

 

On 1/24/2020 at 10:23 AM, hornbri said:

If he does not need the money it sounds like he is doing the right thing. That should continue to grow long term for wherever he wants the money to go when he is gone. 

About that talk, he isn't happy the market is down - so to make up for that he has decided he needs to start trading options. Per my discussion with him last night, he doesn't really know how they work, but he is going to read up on them, and then start making money with options. When I asked him what happens if he loses money on options, he was adamant that he would only do this when he would make money. 
Said he was going to submit the paperwork today to get approved for trading and then maybe start next week; after he learns how they work.
On a slightly related sidenote - he is scheduled for surgery Monday morning, aortic aneurysm graft, so I don't think it will be next week for trading options as he is likely to be in the hospital for 3+ days, and then to rehab. 
Maybe the wanting to trade options is related to the risk of surgery, who knows - I'm not a psychologist, but it seems like he is grasping for something. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19189

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

 

 

About that talk, he isn't happy the market is down - so to make up for that he has decided he needs to start trading options. Per my discussion with him last night, he doesn't really know how they work, but he is going to read up on them, and then start making money with options. When I asked him what happens if he loses money on options, he was adamant that he would only do this when he would make money. 
Said he was going to submit the paperwork today to get approved for trading and then maybe start next week; after he learns how they work.
On a slightly related sidenote - he is scheduled for surgery Monday morning, aortic aneurysm graft, so I don't think it will be next week for trading options as he is likely to be in the hospital for 3+ days, and then to rehab. 
Maybe the wanting to trade options is related to the risk of surgery, who knows - I'm not a psychologist, but it seems like he is grasping for something. 

Your dad is awesome.  

New trading strategy to replace "buy low / sell high" should be "only trade when you will make money".

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45892

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Posted

Argh.  I hate seeing people look at options as some kind of magic means for generating more return.

With options, one must have a view of the direction of the underlying, or volatility, or both.  Beyond that, time is a factor.  Stocks don't decay in value over time, but long options do.

I don't think it's impossible to use options as a means for generating returns, but it's a more complicated and difficult path towards that end.  Ultimately, options are priced pretty well, which means whatever side of the trade one might take, the guy on the other side has roughly the same odds of generating excess return, which is approximately zero, especially accounting for fees, etc.  One could take a position with 80% success rate, but limited reward.  The other guy should expect a 20% success rate, with compensating larger returns when the trade actually works out in his favor.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19189

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I'm with you jj.  This board and several others are full of options experts that make 1,000's of % returns overnight or at worst in a week.  I assume they are "wagering" more than a couple of bucks per trade so why do these multi-millionaires spend so much time on internet message boards?

I would be sitting on a beach earning 1,000%.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21144

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I'm with you jj.  This board and several others are full of options experts that make 1,000's of % returns overnight or at worst in a week.  I assume they are "wagering" more than a couple of bucks per trade so why do these multi-millionaires spend so much time on internet message boards?

I would be sitting on a beach earning 1,000%.

You couldn’t pay me a billion dollars to go sit on a beach and be forced to quit working/trading.  People are different.  I play options small and it is gambling.  I also set puts behind any 3% market advance.  So it’s really cheap insurance.  
 

The pros have my real money but I’m like Wally’s dad.  I made every penny and if I wanna lose it on hookers, blow, and options...so be it.  

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Blotto

Blotto 23491

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I'm with you jj.  This board and several others are full of options experts that make 1,000's of % returns overnight or at worst in a week.  I assume they are "wagering" more than a couple of bucks per trade so why do these multi-millionaires spend so much time on internet message boards?

I would be sitting on a beach earning 1,000%.

Typically I limit my options "gambling" to 1-2% of my trading portfolio value. But the way I look at, if you have a strong conviction about a particular stock or market direction, options can help you make much higher returns (at obviously much higher risk). The current market conditions are great for options trading because of the ginormous swings and complete fucktarded valuations. To date my options trading has been consistently profitable. Last week was ridiculous. Should I start losing money consistently, I'll reevaluate things. Fortune favors the bold, and I'm fine with losing all my options money, because when I decide to gamble, I feel the risk/reward decision is favorable.

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5792

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Posted
32 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

You couldn’t pay me a billion dollars to go sit on a beach and be forced to quit working/trading.  People are different.  I play options small and it is gambling.  I also set puts behind any 3% market advance.  So it’s really cheap insurance.  
 

The pros have my real money but I’m like Wally’s dad.  I made every penny and if I wanna lose it on hookers, blow, and options ...so be it.  

Yes....YES....no!

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23463

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Posted (edited)

Craps is fun.  Options are fun. I am a donkey when it comes to them, but have lucked into a few plays and executed some what I felt were low risk plays with good effect recently. Selling covered calls on shit you would be OK selling if it spiked, and selling puts on things you would be ok buying if it took a short term tank seems like a reasonable way to generate some additional flow with manageable risks involved. 

Edited by Anastasis
manageable
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5541

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Posted
5 hours ago, Blotto said:

Typically I limit my options "gambling" to 1-2% of my trading portfolio value. But the way I look at, if you have a strong conviction about a particular stock or market direction, options can help you make much higher returns (at obviously much higher risk). The current market conditions are great for options trading because of the ginormous swings and complete fucktarded valuations. To date my options trading has been consistently profitable. Last week was ridiculous. Should I start losing money consistently, I'll reevaluate things. Fortune favors the bold, and I'm fine with losing all my options money, because when I decide to gamble, I feel the risk/reward decision is favorable.

Man I wish I was making 1,000% - right now I'm heavily invested in options for me, and I'm at about 3.5% due to having some gains I haven't cashed out (yet). But almost all of that is long term put that are hedges against long positions, and I have lost money over the last 24-30 months (when I started this idiocy) by paying for puts into a strong market. 
But I'm happier being able to sleep about being 100% invested in the market with that downside protection, Within the next 3 months, I will have to take some of those gains and put in some new puts - because what's happening today is the exact reason I bought the puts.

Previously I had used stop losses, and all those did for me was sell stocks near the bottom during the early 2018 S&P decline, and then I didn't sell my puts that were in place late in 2018 and missed out on getting value as the market quickly launched in early 2019. These are relatively expensive lessons learned, that we will see how well they were learned in the next few weeks.

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