Markets still falling like whoa

[bernorange 8363]

42 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

... good interview with Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed Chairman, former assistant secretary of Treasury in-charge of TARP) ...

Short term, this is a good thing because it really feels like the whole financial system is teetering on the edge just like 2008 (in spite of what Goldman Sachs tells clients publicly).  See below for more on this. Long term, I fear Surly is finally going to realize the truth about the insanity of our monetary system.  Stupid goldbugs

~~~

Quote

...
While Fed and Treasury officials have been repeatedly assuring Americans that these Wall Street behemoth banks have plenty of capital, they’ve actually been bleeding their common equity capital faster than a snow cone in July. In just the past five weeks, from the close of trading on Friday, February 14 through the close of trading on Friday, March 20, five of the largest Wall Street banks have lost an average of 45 percent of their common equity capital.
...

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/03/five-mega-wall-street-bank-stocks-have-lost-average-of-45-percent-in-five-weeks/

 

 

[stone oak 639]

Loading up on some SPY puts at open....might as well be gambling in Vegas but this shit is addicting.

[stone oak 639]

Haha futures red after all that

[Fudge Nuggets 19211]

THe first five to ten minutes of trading (aka "Amateur Hour") are always fun to watch from the sidelines.

[XYZ 2154]

4 minutes ago, stone oak said:

Loading up on some SPY puts at open....might as well be gambling in Vegas but this shit is addicting.

At least you are honest.

[Mantis Toboggan, MD 1501]

Nice. So the fed spending hundreds of billions to buy securities = a mere 2% drop in djia.

[52-80 19223]

9 minutes ago, stone oak said:

Loading up on some SPY puts at open....might as well be gambling in Vegas but this shit is addicting.

yes.

i was watching TZA bounce around like mad premarket.  it dipped into low 80s which was my buy target.  put in my order... never saw it fulfilled.  jumped straight to 90s and (at this moment) 105.

 

turns out i forgot to switch over to the pre-market order on my trading platform.  idiot

[stone oak 639]

Just now, 52-80 said:

yes.

i was watching TZA bounce around like mad premarket.  it dipped into low 80s which was my buy target.  put in my order... never saw it fulfilled.  jumped straight to 90s and (at this moment) 105.

 

turns out i forgot to switch over to the pre-market order on my trading platform.  idiot

Damn that sucks...

[Wally Fairway 5572]

33 minutes ago, stone oak said:

Loading up on some SPY puts at open....might as well be gambling in Vegas but this shit is addicting.

Interesting movement in SPY puts, so far. While SPY has fallen, some of the puts have gone red and others have barely moved, which tells me the markets are anticipating more stimulus. Which I get, but the Fed already said they'd print infinite money, so infinite money x 2?
Or will they actually step in to support key industries/companies???

[Hefeweizen 5328]

Serious question/thought:  at what point does the dollar not act as the safe refuge because of the supply deluge?  Right now it’s still the safe r haven of choice given all the exchange rates but looking at the current behavior I see is headed for a tipping point.  I wonder if confidence in the dollar slips, is it game over?

[stone oak 639]

10 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Interesting movement in SPY puts, so far. While SPY has fallen, some of the puts have gone red and others have barely moved, which tells me the markets are anticipating more stimulus. Which I get, but the Fed already said they'd print infinite money, so infinite money x 2?
Or will they actually step in to support key industries/companies???

Yeah having not so much fun with the #stonks this AM. Oh well, fun to learn anyway. Better than just watching other accounts die a slow, painful death.

It'll be interesting how the markets react to the stimulus announcement...

[The People’s Elbow 707]

Well, RobinHood not liking my trading activity — about to be flagged as a pattern daytrader. That’s not my normal behavior but I’m definitely trying to get very short action with this market. 
 

Should I put in enough to meet the $25k minimum balance requirement to exempt myself RH’s trade limits or does someone have a similarly-priced platform they’d recommend? 

Edited March 23, 2020 by The People’s Elbow

[Beau Vine 54356]

52 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

yes.

i was watching TZA bounce around like mad premarket.  it dipped into low 80s which was my buy target.  put in my order... never saw it fulfilled.  jumped straight to 90s and (at this moment) 105.

 

turns out i forgot to switch over to the pre-market order on my trading platform.  idiot

I did that last week...

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

6 minutes ago, The People’s Elbow said:

Well, RobinHood not liking my trading activity — about to be flagged as a pattern daytrader. That’s not my normal behavior but I’m definitely trying to get very short action with this market. 
 

Should I put in enough to meet the $25k minimum balance requirement to exempt myself RH’s trade limits or does someone have a similarly-priced platform they’d recommend? 

That's an SEC rule, but meanwhile get TF out of robinhood.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

24 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Serious question/thought:  at what point does the dollar not act as the safe refuge because of the supply deluge?  Right now it’s still the safe r haven of choice given all the exchange rates but looking at the current behavior I see is headed for a tipping point.  I wonder if confidence in the dollar slips, is it game over?

Serious answer: use those strong USD's to buy physical gold

[washparkhorn 9939]

30 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

at what point does the dollar not act as the safe refuge because of the supply deluge?  

I cannot imagine an alternative at this point. 

There is a lot of room according to macroeconomists before the debt is a problem for the US (tens of trillions in room). 

What is safer at this point (or almost as safe)? I don't know. 

And we cannot downplay how our military strength plays a role in keeping the dollar on top. 

But I am all ears.

[Fudge Nuggets 19211]

9 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

That's an SEC rule, but meanwhile get TF out of robinhood.

This.  From what I understand, RH made its name on zero commissions but today a lot of bigger brokerages (TDAmeritrade for one) are also zero commission.  Why would anyone want to still be in RH?  Is there something of better value they bring to the game? 

[Blotto 23565]

13 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

That's an SEC rule, but meanwhile get TF out of robinhood.

This can't be emphasized enough. They can't even keep their trading platform stable. When they were leading the pack with commission free trades, I could see the appeal if you wanted to trade, but now.... 

I see FN beat me to the punch.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Blotto

[Hefeweizen 5328]

7 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Serious answer: use those strong USD's to buy physical gold

I think this is probably fine as a hedge but I’m more interested in the macro picture.  
 

I agree with Washpark that our military dominance and uncertainty elsewhere (China has shown itself to be completely untrustworthy) means that the dollar isn’t going anywhere.  Does that create more moral hazard for the FED?  In other words, can they keep firing the bazooka?

[The People’s Elbow 707]

43 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

This.  From what I understand, RH made its name on zero commissions but today a lot of bigger brokerages (TDAmeritrade for one) are also zero commission.  Why would anyone want to still be in RH?  Is there something of better value they bring to the game? 

I’m a casual trader and almost always buy and hold. They’ve always met my needs and I’m familiar with the interface. Guess I’ll take a look at other platforms out of due diligence.  

Edited March 23, 2020 by The People’s Elbow

[Parliament 14283]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

Serious question/thought:  at what point does the dollar not act as the safe refuge because of the supply deluge?  Right now it’s still the safe r haven of choice given all the exchange rates but looking at the current behavior I see is headed for a tipping point.  I wonder if confidence in the dollar slips, is it game over?

"Safety" is relative.  Where else you gonna put it?

[stone oak 639]

Uh oh...wonder if we hit the first circuit breaker today

[Parliament 14283]

I just bought some BND puts?  Ballsy?  Stupid?

[52-80 19223]

1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

I did that last week...

thats 36% gain tossed out the window.  of course i wouldve sold at 20% but whatever.  if no positive news develop tonight...guess im gonna repeat for tomorrow

[stone oak 639]

Zoom up 48% over the last week...lololololol

[Wulaw Horn 19146]

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

I cannot imagine an alternative at this point. 

There is a lot of room according to macroeconomists before the debt is a problem for the US (tens of trillions in room). 

What is safer at this point (or almost as safe)? I don't know. 

And we cannot downplay how our military strength plays a role in keeping the dollar on top. 

But I am all ears.

This is spot on. Also, I think sometimes people fundamentally misunderstand what programs like fed injecting liquidity into the system do. It’s not like we are printing money. It’s 1’s and 0’s and more about public perception than anything else. A dollar has no value other than what we all agree it has. Same with gold (beyond industrial use). Same with diamonds. Same with pretty much all this stuff we use as a store of value outside something like oil or whatever used to be used in a mercantile system. It’s a credibility play, I’m not concerned for reasons you mentioned and truly, over a long enough timeframe ( a couple years) they will probably make money on the deal. 

Look at MR Potter during the depression in its a wonderful life at the time of the bank run buying up assets. That’s what I see the fed doing right now to calm everyone the fuck down. 

As to to your point about this being a relative safety play absolutely 100% agree. We are, at worst, the tallest midget and I don’t see that changing in my working lifetime (I’m a man! I’m 41!). 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

"member 2.5 years ago when Janet Yellen was Fed Chair and told us another financial crisis the likes of the one that exploded in 2008 was not likely “in our lifetime.”

[Lurch 5931]

“Not likely” not the same as impossible.

 

 

 

[Loco 3753]

rut rho

 

[workswithseed 2109]

1 minute ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

"member 2.5 years ago when Janet Yellen was Fed Chair and told us another financial crisis the likes of the one that exploded in 2008 was not likely “in our lifetime.”

It's too bad that his crystal ball missed this virus then when he was looking into the future.

[Radical Larry 28659]

 

[Captainant 27723]

Just now, Radical Larry said:

 

Allsome.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

5 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

It's too bad that his crystal ball missed this virus then when he was looking into the future.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-22/repo-market-s-liquidity-crisis-has-been-a-decade-in-the-making

[XYZ 2154]

6 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

"member 2.5 years ago when Janet Yellen was Fed Chair and told us another financial crisis the likes of the one that exploded in 2008 was not likely “in our lifetime.”

Also an asteroid hitting the earth is not likely. Economists, love ‘em. The best thing about economists is that they never come back to eat crow. So a dipshit such as Krugman may say “you gotta print more”, then a few years later if things went well, he’ll say “see, told ya”, but if it went sideways he’ll say “they didn’t print enough” or “they printed too much”. No matter what, they never fucking admit to being wrong about anything.

[Zombie 284]

3 hours ago, Mantis Toboggan, MD said:

Nice. So the fed spending hundreds of billions to buy securities = a mere 2% drop in djia.

I don't know shit about the stock market, but isn't the point of the Fed's actions to provide businesses access to money as opposed to just temporarily prop up the stock market? In other words, is the level of the stock market at any given time a fair or accurate measure of the success of their actions?

[Mantis Toboggan, MD 1501]

5 minutes ago, Zombie said:

I don't know shit about the stock market, but isn't the point of the Fed's actions to provide businesses access to money as opposed to just temporarily prop up the stock market? In other words, is the level of the stock market at any given time a fair or accurate measure of the success of their actions?

That is true.  This is not being done to prop up the stock market per se.  I wan't claiming it was.  My comment is addressing how sour the attitude of the stock market is where such a huge policy announcement is still met with a downward market trajectory.

[Harrison Stafford 3335]

Back in SOXS at $29.70.  Should've bought this A.M. at $28, but got greedy.  Watched it run to $33 and retrace.  Looking for $33 on this trade. Love the volatility (although the VIX is falling).

Edited March 23, 2020 by Harrison Stafford

[Trey3216 15352]

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

Also an asteroid hitting the earth is not likely. Economists, love ‘em. The best thing about economists is that they never come back to eat crow. So a dipshit such as Krugman may say “you gotta print more”, then a few years later if things went well, he’ll say “see, told ya”, but if it went sideways he’ll say “they didn’t print enough” or “they printed too much”. No matter what, they never fucking admit to being wrong about anything.

And the best thing about economists relates to the shit happening in ‘06/07 when economists were screaming that the housing market was too hot, yet the physics/math PhD’s from Ivy League schools hired by Wall St were saying “The math still works, we’ve never had a prolonged decline in real estate values.”   Economists aren’t always right.  But the mathematics are the same, and we actually inject the human psyche into the science, as opposed to the mathematicians.   It’s both an art and a science.  

[Homercles 10206]

2 hours ago, stone oak said:

Zoom up 48% over the last week...lololololol

Skype dies for me randomly 

Zoom hogs up 1/3rd of my CPU

Teams, maybe due to a lower load, works awesome.  I have replaced Skype, Outlook, SharePoint and file shares with it.  

[WBT 20650]

Why do you need to see that the person you're talking to is sitting at their desk?  I've never understood the video conferencing thing.  I keep my webcams taped over.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13519]

1 minute ago, WBT said:

Why do you need to see that the person you're talking to is sitting at their desk?  I've never understood the video conferencing thing.  I keep my webcams taped over.

I like the screen share aspect not the video. 

[Hefeweizen 5328]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I like the screen share aspect not the video. 

Yes if you’re using teams I just turn the camera off and share the screen.  For a meeting the camera can be helpful if you have clothes on

[Dnaguy 12036]

So the market already has the stimulus baked in right now.... even without it passing.

This is crazy. I would have though that the market would react but no.

If congress really gets in fight market going to fall hard tomorrow.

In the spirit of this crisis: ‘I guess we’ll see.’

[Parliament 14283]

5 minutes ago, WBT said:

Why do you need to see that the person you're talking to is sitting at their desk?  I've never understood the video conferencing thing.  I keep my webcams taped over.

Having that face there too really makes communication better.  Hard to describe, but it does.  But as noted, I wanna be able to share my screen.  We use Skype at work, but our customers' IT security is a hodgepodge.  Many don't let the Skype externally. 

[Celery Man 20991]

if you're trying to have a discussion rather than a presentation video is useful as not all communication is audible.  trying to manage a conversation with remote people is difficult and is easier if people are on camera.

[kevwun 15842]

The State of Texas bought a license from Zoom for every Judge in the state.

[bernorange 8363]

Looks like gold/silver are riding the wings of the Fed's QE∞ announcement.

[bernorange 8363]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

This is spot on. Also, I think sometimes people fundamentally misunderstand what programs like fed injecting liquidity into the system do. It’s not like we are printing money. ...

The Fed's balance sheet exploded from just under $1T pre-crisis 2008 to $4.5T before they embarked on efforts to tighten policy shrink it.  Even before Covid19 hit, that effort was failing and they had to re-expand back to $4.7T.

I really don't think it's safe to assume that unlimited QE (amongst other programs) will be easily unwound.  This is "printing money".   I will not be surprised if the Fed's balance sheet doubles or triples within the next year.

[Lurch 5931]

Why do you need to see that the person you're talking to is sitting at their desk?  I've never understood the video conferencing thing.  I keep my webcams taped over.

It’s EXPONENTIALLY better w video, imo. I shame everyone into turning theirs on. We’re trying to maintain human connection and voice alone just doesn’t have the same impact.

[Fudge Nuggets 19211]

20 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Glad I held off on that SOXL position going into Friday's close.  That would not have been ideal.

This didn't age well.  I should start going full Costanza in my trading account.