Markets still falling like whoa

[Lurch 5951]

Skype dies for me randomly 
Zoom hogs up 1/3rd of my CPU
Teams, maybe due to a lower load, works awesome.  I have replaced Skype, Outlook, SharePoint and file shares with it.  

Zoom has an obscene number of settings, and I wouldn’t be surprised to find one was consuming CPU unnecessarily. They need to invest in usability. I can see why it was cratering before this resurgence.

[The People’s Elbow 707]

I’m struggling to see our next bottom. I don’t think there’s going to be a federal lockdown.

Airlines may cancel domestic flights, but I suspect somewhat, though not entirely, priced in.  

WFH and social distancing seems to have begin normalizing.

I believe COVID numbers will continue to rise, but am not sure the material effect. 

Why shouldn’t I get back in now with some travel and hospitality long plays? 

Edited March 23, 2020 by The People’s Elbow

[Lurch 5951]

Earnings reports

[Blotto 24044]

 

11 minutes ago, The People’s Elbow said:

I’m struggling to see our next bottom. I don’t think there’s going to be a federal lockdown.

Airlines may cancel domestic flights, but I suspect somewhat, though not entirely, priced in.  

WFH and social distancing seems to have begin normalizing.

I believe COVID numbers will continue to rise, but am not sure the material effect. 

Why shouldn’t I get back in now with some travel and hospitality long plays? 

Assuming I was trying to get back in the market now ( I am not), the last sector I would jump into would be a sector that relies on groups of people grouped together in typically small spaces (casinos, hotels, cruise ships, planes). Assuming we don't all die, enough of the country will have taken a huge enough hit financially that discretionary spending on vacations may take a back seat to almost all other spending. I'd be looking for companies that took a big hit due to the overall state of the markets, but whose revenue streams are more stable because their products are necessities. 

[Parliament 14620]

Do you think it's gonna bounce anytime soon? I don't. At best we're at the bottom now, and will bounce around here for awhile.

[Lurch 5951]

I still think there is a lot of false hope holding us higher than we’ll be once everyone accepts reality. Looks like this latest “15-day max” push will be the ballon that needs to pop to get us there.

[WBT 20997]

Yeah, obviously the screen share is the most important thing to have.  I guess I misread the post, I thought it was specifically about the video part eating up the CPU.  I've never used Zoom so I can't speak to that.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s not like we are printing money.

 

Last night on 60 Minutes:

 

Scott Pelley: Is the Fed just going to print money?

Neel Kashkari: That's literally what Congress has told us to do. That's the authority that they've given us, to print money and provide liquidity into the financial system. And that's how we do it. We create it electronically. And then we can also print it with the Treasury Department, print it so that you can get money outta your ATM.

[bluto 5000]

Anecdotally the shelter in place is just starting to cause layoffs... buddy laid off 4 employees at his retail store, another’s mom at a dentist ofc, another couple had their gym shutter while wife is a flight attendant.

[hornbri 1511]

1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

So the market already has the stimulus baked in right now.... even without it passing.

This is crazy. I would have though that the market would react but no.

If congress really gets in fight market going to fall hard tomorrow.

In the spirit of this crisis: ‘I guess we’ll see.’

I dont think that is true - if you look at the S&P today you saw the market react from 12:30 to about 1:15 when Shumer said a deal was close, then when the senate voted and it failed the market went down. I still think when the deal is done we will see a pop (granted it might be short term). 

[Dnaguy 12723]

12 minutes ago, hornbri said:

I dont think that is true - if you look at the S&P today you saw the market react from 12:30 to about 1:15 when Shumer said a deal was close, then when the senate voted and it failed the market went down. I still think when the deal is done we will see a pop (granted it might be short term). 

The mad dash at the end of the day makes me feel like rational thinking is still not there.

Everyone trying to get in at the bottom at the end of the day again.

[stone oak 639]

FED is pumping again...

[ChiTownDoc 21348]

1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

So the market already has the stimulus baked in right now.... even without it passing.

This is crazy. I would have though that the market would react but no.

If congress really gets in fight market going to fall hard tomorrow.

In the spirit of this crisis: ‘I guess we’ll see.’

Here's a good rule of thumb right now.  Anything positive is baked in.  Anything negative?  Nope...any negative news will take the market down even further.  

[ChiTownDoc 21348]

5 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Serious question/thought:  at what point does the dollar not act as the safe refuge because of the supply deluge?  Right now it’s still the safe r haven of choice given all the exchange rates but looking at the current behavior I see is headed for a tipping point.  I wonder if confidence in the dollar slips, is it game over?

You serious, Clark?  The dollar should always be looked at relative to everything else, never in a vacuum.  Other currencies / equities / bonds... they all pale in comparison to the almighty dollar.  We will continue to try to keep the value down and print like a MF, and you will see small movements at most.  

[rage-a-holic 4745]

1 hour ago, Lurch said:

 

It’s EXPONENTIALLY better w video, imo. I shame everyone into turning theirs on. We’re trying to maintain human connection and voice alone just doesn’t have the same impact.

Keeping video on uses a shit ton of extra bandwidth. Most companies have seen huge impacts on their IT infrastructure with the amount of people trying to work remotely; video shouldn't even be an option.

And fuck the human condition. I don't want to see any of my co-workers. Ever. For any reason.

Edited March 23, 2020 by rage-a-holic

[Lurch 5951]

Keeping video on uses a shit ton of extra bandwidth. Most companies have seen huge impacts on their IT infrastructure with the amount of people trying to work remotely; video shouldn't even be an option.
And fuck the human condition. I don't want to see any of my co-workers. Ever. For any reason.

I remember when we cleaned out docs to save disk drive space too. Business will drive needed IT investments if the company is well run.

Face to face is valuable to many (most?) of us, even though, yes, there are those that oppose it personally. I think we’ll see a correlation in engagement, culture and satisfaction scores with video.

[Telegraph_it 3379]

2 hours ago, Homercles said:

Skype dies for me randomly 

Zoom hogs up 1/3rd of my CPU

Teams, maybe due to a lower load, works awesome.  I have replaced Skype, Outlook, SharePoint and file shares with it.  

Seconded. I’m on team teams. 

[rage-a-holic 4745]

14 minutes ago, Lurch said:

 

I remember when we cleaned out docs to save disk drive space too. Business will drive needed IT investments if the company is well run.

Face to face is valuable to many (most?) of us, even though, yes, there are those that oppose it personally. I think we’ll see a correlation in engagement, culture and satisfaction scores with video.

I'm just talking about the current situation. I work for a very large financial firm. We went from 2k to 10k remote workers in a week. Huge IT strain.

One of the conditions for working remotely with Webex is no video conferencing without SVP approval.

[52-80 19377]

7 minutes ago, rage-a-holic said:

One of the conditions for working remotely with Webex is no video conferencing without SVP approval.

Lol

[ClubWhatever 12324]

Before last week happened, I thought I was going to start methodically buying back in over several months, regardless of the roller coaster.  Things changed so fast on both a micro and macro scale.  Right now my criterion for buying back in is feeling like this: “I will buy back in when I no longer worry that I might need that cash to live”.  

[GopherRock 1778]

4 hours ago, Loco said:

rut rho

 

Per the Seattle Times, they're suspending operations at all their Puget Sound facilities. 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

Why does the fed think it's job is to prevent investors from having to deal with losses? 

[Eternal Noob 29]

1 hour ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Last night on 60 Minutes:

 

Scott Pelley: Is the Fed just going to print money?

Neel Kashkari: That's literally what Congress has told us to do. That's the authority that they've given us, to print money and provide liquidity into the financial system. And that's how we do it. We create it electronically. And then we can also print it with the Treasury Department, print it so that you can get money outta your ATM.

I really know fuckall about central banks and monetary policy, but that kind of explicit language tells me they are scared shitless about the problems in the system and are very afraid of deflation. This whole thing could be a lot worse than it may appear on the surface. Covid was just the proverbial black swan that lands on the house of cards.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6598]

1 hour ago, rage-a-holic said:

Keeping video on uses a shit ton of extra bandwidth. Most companies have seen huge impacts on their IT infrastructure with the amount of people trying to work remotely; video shouldn't even be an option.

And fuck the human condition. I don't want to see any of my co-workers. Ever. For any reason.

It's funny.  About two weeks ago our leadership team decided all of our conference calls going forward needed to use video also as they felt if we look at each other during our calls we will build team camaraderie.  For the last few weeks I have refused to comply and just act like I am unable to figure out how to work the video on my computer.  Well last week when my company made everybody work from home (about 60K people) they banned all video to save band width.

[XYZ 2154]

So how does this “Fed buying stocks” works? Fed steps in to buy as investors run for the hills in order to keep prices stable, so at the end of that the Fed will own a large chunk of the float? Then what, trading volume will be substantially lower, I presume. What happens if the Fed has to keep buying more and more of the float? When does it end?

[workswithseed 2205]

Just now, XYZ said:

So how does this “Fed buying stocks” works? Fed steps in to buy as investors run for the hills in order to keep prices stable, so at the end of that the Fed will own a large chunk of the float? Then what, trading volume will be substantially lower, I presume. What happens if the Fed has to keep buying more and more of the float? When does it end?

Hopefully when shot is normal and people can trust the market again, but who knows when that is and who knows if I'm right.

[52-80 19377]

38 minutes ago, XYZ said:

So how does this “Fed buying stocks” works? Fed steps in to buy as investors run for the hills in order to keep prices stable, so at the end of that the Fed will own a large chunk of the float? Then what, trading volume will be substantially lower, I presume. What happens if the Fed has to keep buying more and more of the float? When does it end?

When Uncle Sam fully seize the means of production

[Wulaw Horn 19599]

3 hours ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Last night on 60 Minutes:

 

Scott Pelley: Is the Fed just going to print money?

Neel Kashkari: That's literally what Congress has told us to do. That's the authority that they've given us, to print money and provide liquidity into the financial system. And that's how we do it. We create it electronically. And then we can also print it with the Treasury Department, print it so that you can get money outta your ATM.

Well don’t I feel like a fucking asshole 

[bernorange 8386]

42 minutes ago, XYZ said:

So how does this “Fed buying stocks” works? Fed steps in to buy as investors run for the hills in order to keep prices stable, so at the end of that the Fed will own a large chunk of the float? Then what, trading volume will be substantially lower, I presume. What happens if the Fed has to keep buying more and more of the float? When does it end?

[Wulaw Horn 19599]

2 hours ago, rage-a-holic said:

Keeping video on uses a shit ton of extra bandwidth. Most companies have seen huge impacts on their IT infrastructure with the amount of people trying to work remotely; video shouldn't even be an option.

And fuck the human condition. I don't want to see any of my co-workers. Ever. For any reason.

Best screen name ever for you my man. Stay frosty. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19475]

The ironic thing about the poor use of stock buybacks is this is exactly the time companies should be buying back stock.  I believe the saying is "buy low", but companies NEVER fucking do it.

[Parliament 14620]

I'm pretty sure they're real scared of running out of cash atm. I've seen articles (and it may have been discussed upthread) about companies maxing out their credit line to hoard cash.

[Wally Fairway 5678]

9 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The ironic thing about the poor use of stock buybacks is this is exactly the time companies should be buying back stock.  I believe the saying is "buy low", but companies NEVER fucking do it.

That is what stopped the bleeding in October 1987; and at that time the SEC had to make an emergency rule to allow the buybacks, which backstopped the losses.

[Wally Fairway 5678]

2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I'm pretty sure they're real scared of running out of cash atm. I've seen articles (and it may have been discussed upthread) about companies maxing out their credit line to hoard cash.

But that's just electronic funds, they can float that as part of the infinite Fed window. Cash on hand is a different issue, but I've had several people tell me that their bank has limited daily cash withdrawals.

With Michigan on stay at home, Mrs Fairway wanted for us both to get the maximum daily atm withdrawal, I said if I'm such at home why do I need it? Are we playing a cash poker game? We did get half of the max, I'll let you know how the poker game goes.

[Parliament 14620]

Woah there, Wally. "Atm" in this case is "at the moment." Sorry for that.

Companies are deathly afraid their sales are gonna fall so hard they'll run out of cash. And they're worried their banks are gonna pull their credit lines. So they're pulling everything they can out of those credit lines. Do it before they get cut off.

[LTtxfan 50035]

35 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

With Michigan on stay at home, Mrs Fairway wanted for us both to get the maximum daily atm withdrawal, I said if I'm such at home why do I need it? Are we playing a cash poker game? We did get half of the max, I'll let you know how the poker game goes.

[BradInATX 9208]

If we're going to keep bailing out these fucking mega businesses, there should be a caveat attached to the money that they must save enough cash on hand to survive six months without revenue before they're ever allowed to do a buyback or pay their C-suite more than (some reasonable amount). There is absolutely no incentive for large companies to behave fiscally responsibly anymore, as they know they'll just get bailed out the minute there's a problem.

[Parliament 14620]

I'm trying to understand buying options, specifically what to offer for them. In understand the "bid" and "ask" part, but not what I should put my bid in at.

An example. The bid is $1 and the ask is $2. If I make my own bid at $1.50, I'm first in line, but it won't fill until some "asker" lowers his ask to my $1.50. That part I get. If I bid $2 will it fill automatically? If I bid $2.50 will it fill at $2 or $2.50?

Please help me understand Open Interest. Is that the total of bids and asks on a certain option? And we don't know what the bid/ask ratio is?

What strike price should I be looking at? In my college grain marketing class we were taught to buy options that were just a bit out of the money? Looks like with securities options you should look at the options with more open interest?

Thanks for your help with this.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/options/

[LTtxfan 50035]

Industry sponsored website on learning about options...

https://www.optionseducation.org

The Options Industry Council

OIC is an industry resource supported by OCC to provide trustworthy education about the benefits and risks of exchange-listed options.   Since 1992, OIC has been dedicated to increasing the awareness, knowledge and responsible use of options by individual investors, financial advisors and institutional managers.

 

Be sure to get approval to trade options in your brokerage account... 

 

Some info below that might help yah start...

https://www.optionseducation.org/optionsoverview/getting-started-with-options

Edited March 24, 2020 by LTtxfan

[UTexasFight 9819]

I believe the correct answer was “if you have to ask, then you can’t afford it.”

[XYZ 2154]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

If we're going to keep bailing out these fucking mega businesses, there should be a caveat attached to the money that they must save enough cash on hand to survive six months without revenue before they're ever allowed to do a buyback or pay their C-suite more than (some reasonable amount). There is absolutely no incentive for large companies to behave fiscally responsibly anymore, as they know they'll just get bailed out the minute there's a problem.

I don’t see what the problem is here. When corporate America makes money, they keep the money. When they lose money, we give them money. That’s not gonna change, because they own the government.

[Beau Vine 55892]

11 hours ago, XYZ said:

Also an asteroid hitting the earth is not likely. Economists, love ‘em. The best thing about economists is that they never come back to eat crow. So a dipshit such as Krugman may say “you gotta print more”, then a few years later if things went well, he’ll say “see, told ya”, but if it went sideways he’ll say “they didn’t print enough” or “they printed too much”. No matter what, they never fucking admit to being wrong about anything.

Krugman is not an economist any more.  He's a full-blown politician.

[Beau Vine 55892]

9 hours ago, The People’s Elbow said:

I’m struggling to see our next bottom. I don’t think there’s going to be a federal lockdown.

Airlines may cancel domestic flights, but I suspect somewhat, though not entirely, priced in.  

WFH and social distancing seems to have begin normalizing.

I believe COVID numbers will continue to rise, but am not sure the material effect. 

Why shouldn’t I get back in now with some travel and hospitality long plays? 

Because that would be stupid.  The market's #1 enemy is uncertainty.  No way I would get back in until the number of daily deaths in this country starts to drop.

[Beau Vine 55892]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

I'm trying to understand buying options, specifically what to offer for them. In understand the "bid" and "ask" part, but not what I should put my bid in at.

An example. The bid is $1 and the ask is $2. If I make my own bid at $1.50, I'm first in line, but it won't fill until some "asker" lowers his ask to my $1.50. That part I get. If I bid $2 will it fill automatically? If I bid $2.50 will it fill at $2 or $2.50?

Please help me understand Open Interest. Is that the total of bids and asks on a certain option? And we don't know what the bid/ask ratio is?

What strike price should I be looking at? In my college grain marketing class we were taught to buy options that were just a bit out of the money? Looks like with securities options you should look at the options with more open interest?

Thanks for your help with this.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/options/

Seriously?  If you have to ask these questions here, you shouldn't be anywhere near options.  

[Henry Hill 3156]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

I'm trying to understand buying options, specifically what to offer for them. In understand the "bid" and "ask" part, but not what I should put my bid in at.

An example. The bid is $1 and the ask is $2. If I make my own bid at $1.50, I'm first in line, but it won't fill until some "asker" lowers his ask to my $1.50. That part I get. If I bid $2 will it fill automatically? If I bid $2.50 will it fill at $2 or $2.50?

Please help me understand Open Interest. Is that the total of bids and asks on a certain option? And we don't know what the bid/ask ratio is?

What strike price should I be looking at? In my college grain marketing class we were taught to buy options that were just a bit out of the money? Looks like with securities options you should look at the options with more open interest?

Thanks for your help with this.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/options/

Use your cognitive bias expertise and figure it out.

[UTexasFight 9819]

Because that would be stupid.  The market's #1 enemy is uncertainty.  No way I would get back in until the number of daily deaths in this country starts to drop.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/973377/when-will-stocks-recover

Longcat (and he says a lot without saying anything) but some food for thought. I thought the four stages of a bear market made sense.
I could see us turning the corner soon in to stage three, if we haven’t already, but definitely content to stay on the sidelines for this quarter:

Stage three is stabilization. Stocks halt their decline, thereby ending the impression that they will do nothing but fall. The panic subsides but the situation remains grim. Investors believed during the first stage that stock prices slide on a whim. Now they realize that equities stumbled for good reason, and that until that reason is eliminated, they will continue to struggle. Shareholders’ losses will not soon be recouped.

This period is marked by turbulence. Stocks rally, sometimes furiously, only to be knocked back down. Investor sentiment varies between guarded optimism that the end is at least remotely in sight, and despair that the hope was false. This is typically the bear market’s longest period, extending for several months. (Several years for The Great Depression, but we do not wish to emulate that example.)

[The People’s Elbow 707]

I’m certainly not all-in and I wouldn’t be surprised if we go down another 10-20% before it’s all said and done. But, for me, I don’t see the need to stay completely out of the game if there are reasonable and small opportunities to take a position I find comfortable. 

[Hmmm 155]

Dumb question amnesty:  if i have $100 and gain 10 percent  in week 1, value increases to 110.  Assume  I gain another 10 percent in week 2, values totals 121.  Total gains in two weeks is $21.

On the flip side, if i have $100 and lose 10 percent  in week 1, values deceases to  90.  Assume I Iose another 10 percent in week 2, total value is 81 .  Total losses in two weeks is: $!9.

Basically, in laymen terms, you gain more than you lose less (in this vacuum experiment).  Is there some economic/trading term for this (aside from compound interest or "you gotta spend money to make money")?

 

*I'm am super noob and appreciate any insight, right or wrong, so long as it is "honest"

[WBT 20997]

18 minutes ago, Hmmm said:

 Is there some economic/trading term for this (aside from compound interest or "you gotta spend money to make money")?

5th grade multiplication and division?

[TonyTexas 10786]

Now I’m going to really blow Hmmm’s mind. If you buy a stock at $10 and it goes to $5, you’re down 50%. For you to get back to even, it now has to go up 100%.   Madness.