2020-21 Texas Kenpom Thread

[shadow_operative 15932]

Through one game:

 

 

 

 

 

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[HookEm 2468]

Currently ranked #8 in Kenpom. Projecting 19-6. I would take that. That would be more like 22-7 in a normal year.

Probably good for a 4-5 seed. Or better.

[HookEm 2468]

5 Big12 teams ranked in his top 8 BTW.

[shadow_operative 15932]

according to Kenpom the Indiana game tomorrow is a coin flip.







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[shadow_operative 15932]

After thrashing Indiana:






we also dropped IU from #14 to #26


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[shadow_operative 15932]

after yesterday's action wrapped up we now sit at no.4 overall. kenpom also has us defeating UNC 70-68 (58%).

[Pato del Muerto 52608]

6 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

after yesterday's action wrapped up we now sit at no.4 overall. kenpom also has us defeating UNC 70-68 (58%).

Loser got the final score wrong 

[SDG 3319]

Up to 4 (2nd for D). Not a bad start after the run at the end of last season. 

[CheesePie 238]

What does the Luck metric mean? We have the highest out of everyone in the top 40. Can computers quantify luck these days?

[Pato del Muerto 52608]

Used to be a huge deal to beat IU and UNC in a season, let alone in consecutive days. 

[Catdaddyhorn 3447]

14 minutes ago, CheesePie said:

What does the Luck metric mean? We have the highest out of everyone in the top 40. Can computers quantify luck these days?

From the Kenpom site:

https://kenpom.com/blog/meet-my-friend-pythagoras/

"Andy Katz recently published his preseason top 50 for the upcoming season. He did a very thorough job and I think captured something close to what the preseason polls will have. Although I am a little puzzled as to why Gonzaga is ranked as low as 22. At any rate, it’s time to start speculating on the upcoming season.

Part of doing that is accurately assessing how good a team was last year. Some opinions will be inflated and some deflated based on the distribution of luck. Can we quantify which teams were lucky and which teams were unlucky last year? We can take a shot at it. (Why do I keep saying we? I am sounding like Beano Cook here.)

Bill James can help us. He’s a genius who unfortunately has applied his genius to Major League Baseball. He was the one who invented the Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball, which looks like so:

Expected Winning Percentage = RunsScored^2 / (RunsScored^2+RunsAllowed^2)

This is similar to the more famous Pythagorean Theorem which is used to determine the length of the hypotenuse of a right triangle. What one has to do with the other is anyone’s guess. But there was also a time when chocolate and peanut butter were not thought to be a good match either.

I’m not going to get into why it works, because I am not exactly sure myself, but it works very well. The basic idea is that the more you outscore your opponents over the course of the season, the more games you should win.

This is one way to determine how lucky a team is. To buy into this, you have to believe that the outcome of close games is more due to luck than the outcome of blowouts is. It seems to be an obvious point, but there are those who still believe the Earth is flat also.

If a team wins a lot of close games and loses a few blowouts, their actual record would exceed their “Pythagorean record.” They would be the beneficiary of luck, because you would not expect them to be dominant in close games especially given that they had a few lopsided losses. The opposite case would indicate a team is unlucky.

The formula’s ability to predict a major league team’s record is uncanny. It probably works well because baseball teams play a similar schedule. This isn’t true in college hoops, but that problem can be minimized if we limit the formula to conference games. Then we can determine how lucky a team was relative to its conference.

The formula has to be modified to apply to basketball – instead of squaring points scored and points allowed, they need to be raised to the 10th power. In doing that, the formula also has an uncanny ability to predict the conference record of a given college hoops team.

Though for a few teams it does poorly. These are the teams that presumably were affected by an unusual amount of luck. Later this week, I will post the teams that benefited or were hurt the most by luck last"

Edited December 4, 2020 by Catdaddyhorn

[ztejas 43542]

On 12/2/2020 at 1:26 PM, shadow_operative said:

kenpom also has us defeating UNC 70-68 (58%).

Wow. Vegas basically nailed the o/u, too. Wonder if they are KenPom believers.

[Drew 2533]

Well that's pretty cool.

[Blotto 23580]

20 hours ago, ztejas said:

Wow. Vegas basically nailed the o/u, too. Wonder if they are KenPom believers.

The Vegas O/U is usually very close to Kenpom's projected total. They probably have similar models and then betting action may subsequently move the line, however I don't follow Kenpom enough to know if they factor in player injuries to their predicted scores.  As an example , my book has Zags -3 and a 157 point total for todays game with Baylor, and Kenpom predicts 79-78 Gonzaga. 

[shadow_operative 15932]

after a 3-1 week we're up four spots:







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[shadow_operative 15932]

after a 3-1 week we're up four spots:







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[shadow_operative 15932]

after a 3-1 week we're up four spots:







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[shadow_operative 15932]

after a 3-1 week we're up four spots:







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[realgreggym 837]

As long as we play tough defense, we should be a tough out for any team.

[shadow_operative 15932]

after a 3-1 week we're up four spots:







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[shadow_operative 15932]

after a 3-1 week we're up four spots:







Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[shadow_operative 15932]

after a 3-1 week we're up four spots:







Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[shadow_operative 15932]

after a 3-1 week we're up four spots:







Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[shadow_operative 15932]

after a 3-1 week we're up four spots:







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[conVINCEd 21469]

JFC Derka.

[shadow_operative 15932]

fucking tapatalk. worst. app. ever. i only use it for uploading photos, and that alone takes a good 7-8 attempts for the photos to upload. then, as you can see, after 20 minutes of simply trying to get tapa to accept the photos, i go to make the post and tapa tells me that something went wrong and to try again. this repeats 4-5x, and i eventually give up, only to come back here and find out that my posts actually was successfully posted five times. oh, and while all of this is going on, tapa butts in 7 different times to suggest that i pay them, and upgrade to their VIP package. fucking garbage. 

[cafe society 2874]

52 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

fucking tapatalk. worst. app. ever. i only use it for uploading photos, and that alone takes a good 7-8 attempts for the photos to upload. then, as you can see, after 20 minutes of simply trying to get tapa to accept the photos, i go to make the post and tapa tells me that something went wrong and to try again. this repeats 4-5x, and i eventually give up, only to come back here and find out that my posts actually was successfully posted five times. oh, and while all of this is going on, tapa butts in 7 different times to suggest that i pay them, and upgrade to their VIP package. fucking garbage. 

At least you're okay, I thought perhaps you'd had a stroke or something and your finger was stuck on enter.

[ztejas 43542]

Lmao.

Anyways, it should be a fun season. There were a few causes for concern in that game against Nova - but Nova might end up being really good - and I think Texas wins quite a few if you play that game 100 times. Kenpom already suggests they are a strong team. 

Texas should easily make the tournament and should be playing for a regular season B12 title. In the tourney, it seems like this Texas team will be both capable of beating anyone and capable of losing to anyone.

Let's see if the guard rotation can settle in a bit and Brown can start shining more often. Shaka has a lot to work with - and I'm still convinced that he will try and fuck it up - but there's definitely a scenario where he doesn't and this squad winds up playing more than a couple tourney games.

[Catdaddyhorn 3447]

Greg Brown, Andrew Jones, and Jericho Sims have yet to play a "good" game this year. Collectively, their improved play could be a major source of the team's growth over the course of the season. Take for instance someone like the enigmatic Sims who actually played at a near all-conference level before he was hurt last season (in 11 conference gms last year he avg 10.27 ppg, 9. rebs). 

Edited December 8, 2020 by Catdaddyhorn

[shadow_operative 15932]

of all the years to not have an extended non-con schedule filled with nothing but cupcakes, this was the year where it could have really done us some good. 

[idigTexas 2290]

3 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

fucking tapatalk. worst. app. ever. i only use it for uploading photos, and that alone takes a good 7-8 attempts for the photos to upload. then, as you can see, after 20 minutes of simply trying to get tapa to accept the photos, i go to make the post and tapa tells me that something went wrong and to try again. this repeats 4-5x, and i eventually give up, only to come back here and find out that my posts actually was successfully posted five times. oh, and while all of this is going on, tapa butts in 7 different times to suggest that i pay them, and upgrade to their VIP package. fucking garbage. 

You don't need tapa to upload photos any longer.  You don't even have to save them to file.  Just do a screen grab, draw a dick, and paste.

 

[jimmyjazz 46187]

LMAO.  I knew it was a multiple tapafart, but it was still funny.

This conference is fucking brutal.  5 of the top 9?

[shadow_operative 15932]

we don't turn the ball over all that much, and we've been a damn fine offensive rebounding team. so, with both of those things said, if we could cut down on the wasted possessions (which consist mostly of pull-up threes and aimless drives) then we could easily see that AdjO number get closer and closer towards elite status. 

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Edited December 9, 2020 by shadow_operative

[Pato del Muerto 52608]

Kansas fifth in the conference. Hmmm. 

[shadow_operative 15932]

lol @ me saying, "if we could cut down on the wasted possessions". i can't count how many terrible possessions/pull-up threes i've seen in this ugly game against mighty Texas State. 

[shadow_operative 15932]

[shadow_operative 15932]

[Braff Zacklin 13665]

Our free-throw defense continues to be outstanding. Way to coach 'em up!

[HookEm 2468]

Maybe that means we foul harder than most. Or perhaps the ball don’t lie.

[shadow_operative 15932]

[ztejas 43542]

9 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

 

[shadow_operative 15932]

[ztejas 43542]

I was guessing 3. 5 isn't bad. One of 4 teams in the country in the top 15 in both adj D and O. 

[Huckleberry 33100]

On 1/3/2021 at 4:11 PM, ztejas said:

I was guessing 3. 5 isn't bad. One of 4 teams in the country in the top 15 in both adj D and O. 

Three of those teams play in Texas. Basketball state.

[Pato del Muerto 52608]

Am I wrong to be surprised that osu and ou aren’t somewhere in that top 25 after their wins?

[shadow_operative 15932]

[shadow_operative 15932]

not Texas related, but Lindsey Hunter is having a bad time at MVSU. Worst defense in the country + the second worst offense in the country = yikes.

 

[ztejas 43542]

44 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

not Texas related, but Lindsey Hunter is having a bad time at MVSU. Worst defense in the country + the second worst offense in the country = yikes.

 

I mean, first of all, having 142 dropped on you is absolutely embarassing. Equally embarassing is getting blown out by 40 by Kenpom #349 Arkansas Pine Bluff. 

How bad is that roster? MVSU is an HBCU with an enrollment of almost 2,500 - so say they have 1,200 guys on campus. I have a hard time believing he even has the best 15 basketball players on campus on his roster. Actually I'd guarantee that he doesn't.

[shadow_operative 15932]

i wonder if his guys would lose a game against the football team...

[shadow_operative 15932]