Starship - Test Flight ( 4:45pm CST)

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

21 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

Eh what’s a few turtles and birds.  And by the time local folks experience long term health effects the company will have been reincorporated 9 times and the pad will be a superfund site. 

nothing

toxic

was

combusted

[atomheartbevo 89770]

4 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

i had to isolate and quote this statement to see the words by themselves.......

It reached earth orbit, Orion/upper stage separated, it performed a trans-lunar injection, released Orion, which completed a flyby of the Moon, then went out into an orbit farther than any human-capable spacecraft had went, and six days later completed another flyby of the Moon.  Then it returned after 25 days, entered the atmosphere, splashed down in the Pacific.

It didn't blow up any launch pads, and NASA didn't blow up an SLS or three trying to get it to orbit.

I have a lot of issues with the SLS, but I'd consider that a pretty fucking good success.

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

8 hours ago, locodos said:

Agree,

I saw a tweet attributed to Elon that said SpaceX wanted a simplified pad due to the nature of the planned future missions.  That tweet also indicated that choice was a risk.  They found out.

I get all that, but the part I don't understand is the idea that a Hydrogen/Methane rocket (which we can be 100% sure was the propellant) somehow created a chemical/biological risk from physical destruction of concrete and steel.  Perhaps the RCS used hypergolic fuel like the dragon capsule?  I don't know that's why I asked you space nerds.

you can't understand it because it's not possible

even if the rocket did blow up on the pad, the result of the explosion would have been melted steel and pulverized concrete, albeit in a more localized radius because of the instant nature of the event

the reason particulate matter was thrown several miles away was the stack took 10 seconds to get the flame plume off the ground and it was exhausting, unvented, horizontally

yes, elon's trench will become a meme

no, this is not a biohazard event

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

It reached earth orbit, Orion/upper stage separated, it performed a trans-lunar injection, released Orion, which completed a flyby of the Moon, then went out into an orbit farther than any human-capable spacecraft had went, and six days later completed another flyby of the Moon.  Then it returned after 25 days, entered the atmosphere, splashed down in the Pacific.

It didn't blow up any launch pads, and NASA didn't blow up an SLS or three trying to get it to orbit.

I have a lot of issues with the SLS, but I'd consider that a pretty fucking good success.

we have a difference of opinion measured in parsecs, so let's spend the energy elsewhere, it is pointless to argue this one

[atomheartbevo 89770]

Just now, Hagbard Celine said:

no, this is not a biohazard event

Definitely not, but it's pissed a helluva lot of people off, and made the FAA/NASA question why SpaceX was cutting corners like that.  And if Elon didn't want the criticism, he should have kept his mouth shut about publicly worrying that it would take out the launch pad in the months leading up to last week.  He does a lot of stupid shit, but his comments in hindsight give off a pretty strong vibe that he knew it would fuck up the launchpad.

[Pato del Muerto 52545]

12 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

yes, elon's trench will become a meme

Probably the most successful thing his Boring company ever did. He might think about repurposing. 

[JMFP 1120]

53 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Probably the most successful thing his Boring company ever did. He might think about repurposing. 

Ahem

 

[0xdeadbeef 1651]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

It reached earth orbit, Orion/upper stage separated, it performed a trans-lunar injection, released Orion, which completed a flyby of the Moon, then went out into an orbit farther than any human-capable spacecraft had went, and six days later completed another flyby of the Moon.  Then it returned after 25 days, entered the atmosphere, splashed down in the Pacific.

It didn't blow up any launch pads, and NASA didn't blow up an SLS or three trying to get it to orbit.

I have a lot of issues with the SLS, but I'd consider that a pretty fucking good success.

You understand that the main engines and SRBs on the SLS were reused parts from the Space Shuttle, right?  The SLS was just a re-engineering of existing proven Space Shuttle technology.  No new engine or really anything new of interest.   And yet it cost more than $23 BILLION and was six years late. It took 10 years.   There are currently no more SLSs ready to go and won't be for years and Billions more spent.

In contrast, the thing that SpaceX blew up has been estimated to cost about $25 million to manufacture.  And the next one is more our less ready to go... and the one after that is well under way.  They can crank them out in just a few months.  

SpaceX's (and silicon Valley's) fail-fast development process is often upsetting and confusing to folks who don't follow closely, but it's damn effective.

SpaceX is better at what it does than any other company (or government)

 

[atomheartbevo 89770]

12 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

You understand that the main engines and SRBs on the SLS were reused parts from the Space Shuttle, right?  The SLS was just a re-engineering of existing proven Space Shuttle technology.  No new engine or really anything new of interest.   And yet it cost more than $23 BILLION and was six years late. It took 10 years.   There are currently no more SLSs ready to go and won't be for years and Billions more spent.

Yes:

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

I have a lot of issues with the SLS,

I am not happy with the costs, or the make-work nature/Congress's interference and them re-using Shuttle parts, and I bitched about that on Shaggy as well, but then again, you are talking to somebody who wishes they had kept the Saturn program going in some capacity.   But when it finally lifted off, it worked.

And Bill Nelson wasn't out there tweeting or giving out interviews every so often where he publicly hoped they didn't destroy the launchpad.

12 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

In contrast, the thing that SpaceX blew up has been estimated to cost about $25 million to manufacture.  And the next one is more our less ready to go... and the one after that is well under way.  They can crank them out in just a few months.  

They can't crank out launchpads every few months though.

And if they had not rushed/cut corners on the launchpad construction, and not thrown a fuckload of debris up in the air, including directly up around the rocket, the thing might have separated properly, might have made orbit.

And I would be planning a trip down there this summer with my son to see a launch.

But then again, if they had not rushed/cut corners on the launchpad, they might still be counting down the months until it was finished.

12 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

SpaceX's (and silicon Valley's) fail-fast development process is often upsetting and confusing to folks who don't follow closely, but it's damn effective.

Oh, I had to work in that culture in the late 90s through the 2010s, I'm aware of how it works, but this does not appear to be a problem with the hardware where they just iterate through it until they get the solution, this appears to be more of a human problem - somebody decided they needed to cut corners and skimp on the launchpad.

Whether that was Musk or Shotwell or whoever, somebody made that decision.  And Musk was out there publicly projecting his fears about the launchpad.  In hindsight, it's giving off vibes like if somebody wanted to hook up with you in a few months, and you started texting them every so often that you hope you can get an erection when the time is right - they are going to start thinking "what the fuck is he so worried about, can he not get it up?"

 

[0xdeadbeef 1651]

34 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Oh, I had to work in that culture in the late 90s through the 2010s, I'm aware of how it works, but this does not appear to be a problem with the hardware where they just iterate through it until they get the solution, this appears to be more of a human problem - somebody decided they needed to cut corners and skimp on the launchpad.

Whether that was Musk or Shotwell or whoever, somebody made that decision.  And Musk was out there publicly projecting his fears about the launchpad.  In hindsight, it's giving off vibes like if somebody wanted to hook up with you in a few months, and you started texting them every so often that you hope you can get an erection when the time is right - they are going to start thinking "what the fuck is he so worried about, can he not get it up?"

 

 

It doesn't sound like cutting corners to me, it sounds like a calculated decision that didn't go their way.   

 

 

SN5 Destroyed it's launch pad

 

SN8 damaged it's launch pad, and had a piece of concrete hit the engines that minutes later led to the landing boom. 

 

They learned, adjusted, and moved forward.

If I had to fly on a rocket, I'd rather see it developed SpaceX's way than what Blue Origin and ULA are doing.   The Blue Origin BE-4 engine that has been testing on a bench since at least 2017 but has never flown.

The first time one of these leave the ground may be in ULA's Vulcan rocket later this year (or next year).  It's NOT a throw away flight for ULA.   It's one of two that ULA must have to be certified for military launches.  

 

One way to look at it is ULA and Blue origin are 'cost cutting' by NOT building a half dozen test rockets.  

 

 

 

 

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

musk was not concerned about destroying the pad with exhaust, he was worried about losing the entire stack on ignition

spacex clearly did not fully calculate the effect of the exhaust of 30 engines, but they thought if they got off the pad, the pad would still be there for the next attempt

but here's the difference with old space: elon will have a pad and trench built by the end of the year

old space will still be arguing about who gets how much pork from the pad studies, materials, design, construction, and on and on

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

28 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

One way to look at it is ULA and Blue origin are 'cost cutting' by NOT building a half dozen test rockets.

i half suspect bezos is waiting for musk to take all the arrows as the methalox pioneer

[Dahobbs 17627]

9 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

 

It doesn't sound like cutting corners to me, it sounds like a calculated decision that didn't go their way.   

 

 

SN5 Destroyed it's launch pad

 

SN8 damaged it's launch pad, and had a piece of concrete hit the engines that minutes later led to the landing boom. 

 

They learned, adjusted, and moved forward.

If I had to fly on a rocket, I'd rather see it developed SpaceX's way than what Blue Origin and ULA are doing.   The Blue Origin BE-4 engine that has been testing on a bench since at least 2017 but has never flown.

The first time one of these leave the ground may be in ULA's Vulcan rocket later this year (or next year).  It's NOT a throw away flight for ULA.   It's one of two that ULA must have to be certified for military launches.  

 

One way to look at it is ULA and Blue origin are 'cost cutting' by NOT building a half dozen test rockets.  

 

 

 

 

I don't think SpaceX miscalculated. I think Elon did. This reeks of his worse type of meddling where he tries to force change for change's sake. But I'm sure they'll also get the pad fixed by the end of the year somehow. Also, the fact that they could have waited a bit longer suggests to me that Elon's original goal was a 4/20 launch and everything else was just theatre. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Dahobbs

[SquishMitten 10422]

I think there’s some fudging of words here. I’ve seen several folks (not just here) say that SpaceX knew this was a possibility because Elon said it was a couple weeks ago. But he didn’t really say that. Yes, he mentioned that the pad might get destroyed, but that concern was based on an entirely different reason. He didn’t think the pad could survive an immediate explosion of the entire rocket. That’s not at all what happened. Unless I’ve missed something, I don’t think anybody ever expressed concern over a slow takeoff. Maybe they should have, but that’s a different discussion than what’s being had in the public sphere right now. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19210]

11 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

musk was not concerned about destroying the pad with exhaust, he was worried about losing the entire stack on ignition

spacex clearly did not fully calculate the effect of the exhaust of 30 engines, but they thought if they got off the pad, the pad would still be there for the next attempt

but here's the difference with old space: elon will have a pad and trench built by the end of the year

old space will still be arguing about who gets how much pork from the pad studies, materials, design, construction, and on and on

This word.  Why do you insist on using it so much?

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

5 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think SpaceX miscalculated. I think Elon did. This reeks of his worse type of meddling where he tries to force change for change's sake. But I'm sure they'll also get the pad fixed by the end of the year somehow. Also, the fact that they could have waited a bit longer suggests to me that Elon's original goal was a 4/20 launch and everything else was just theatre. 

I disagree - I think it was miss by SpaceX - if it was a miss by Elon, then you are accusing him of a Challenger gaffe

it may have already been posted above - yesterday Elon tweeted they would have the flame diversion thinggy setup in 6 weeks

as to the 420 date, do you really think they would have gassed 'er up and had thousands of people on station 3 days earlier with the explicit intent to scrub?  including the FAA and the airspace?  really?

okay then

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

4 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

I think there’s some fudging of words here. I’ve seen several folks (not just here) say that SpaceX knew this was a possibility because Elon said it was a couple weeks ago. But he didn’t really say that. Yes, he mentioned that the pad might get destroyed, but that concern was based on an entirely different reason. He didn’t think the pad could survive an immediate explosion of the entire rocket. That’s not at all what happened. Unless I’ve missed something, I don’t think anybody ever expressed concern over a slow takeoff. Maybe they should have, but that’s a different discussion than what’s being had in the public sphere right now. 

totally agree and you are exactly on to the post-mortem line of inquiry.....

methalox is new - no methalox engine has ever reached orbit - the premise is a 3x increase on performance per unit of fuel over everything else ever used - but this requires an insane increase in the technology - raptors combust at 300 bars - and if what i heard is true - the 'stifled' exhaust with no where to go raised the atmospheric pressure around and under the engines - the lack of a trench could have been responsible for the unstart/flameout condition on the 3 engines that failed on the pad - which then delayed the liftoff an extra second or two, which then set in motion an unrecoverable flight profile and the STACK was never going to get enough delta-v for starship to detach and fire

or maybe it was utah

[Dahobbs 17627]

45 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

I disagree - I think it was miss by SpaceX - if it was a miss by Elon, then you are accusing him of a Challenger gaffe

it may have already been posted above - yesterday Elon tweeted they would have the flame diversion thinggy setup in 6 weeks

as to the 420 date, do you really think they would have gassed 'er up and had thousands of people on station 3 days earlier with the explicit intent to scrub?  including the FAA and the airspace?  really?

okay then

Do I think "they" would? No. Do I think Elon would? Yes, absolutely. SpaceX is amazing, and Elon gets some credit for that. But he is often his own worse enemy. Hurrying to launch when the when the massive water cooled steel plate was already installed and basically just needed to be finalized (based on Musk's tweet) suggests they had internal pressure to launch by a particular date. I think Elon set 4/20 as a target date. I think he hoped the steel plate would be ready. I think when it wasn't ready, he told them to push ahead based on his belief that a single launch wouldn't do that much damage. If we ever get internal insight to this process, I'd be willing to bet money that internally folks as SpaceX were saying the launch had a decent chance of doing severe damage to the pad and that waiting would be ideal. And I would bet money that Elon dismissed that by saying something like "20% isn't that likely, we aren't going to let that slow us down"

[0xdeadbeef 1651]

7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Do I think "they" would? No. Do I think Elon would? Yes, absolutely. SpaceX is amazing, and Elon gets some credit for that. But he is often his own worse enemy. Hurrying to launch when the when the massive water cooled steel plate was already installed and basically just needed to be finalized (based on Musk's tweet) suggests they had internal pressure to launch by a particular date. I think Elon set 4/20 as a target date. I think he hoped the steel plate would be ready. I think when it wasn't ready, he told them to push ahead based on his belief that a single launch wouldn't do that much damage. If we ever get internal insight to this process, I'd be willing to bet money that internally folks as SpaceX were saying the launch had a decent chance of doing severe damage to the pad and that waiting would be ideal. And I would bet money that Elon dismissed that by saying something like "20% isn't that likely, we aren't going to let that slow us down"

I'm curious how you think it went down in the SpaceX control room on Monday 4/17.      The rocket's on the pad with 6-Million pounds of Oxygen and 2-Million pounds of Methane.  The countdown down to T-10 minutes, and then what?

Are you thinking that:

• Elon just made an announcement?   "Hey folks, we're not launching today. Because I said so. Wink-Wink.  And everyone pretend it was a frozen valve, Ok"

or

• Elon (or a trusted minion) secretly reprogramed the display software to just show a frozen valve? 

or

• Elon pulls a small number of folks aside the day/week before and tells them to 'pretend' that sensors were showing a frozen values?

 

...and when the engineering leads ask for the logs from the scrub, are they told that  "Top Men are working on it. Top.  Men"

 

 

[Dahobbs 17627]

1 hour ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I'm curious how you think it went down in the SpaceX control room on Monday 4/17.      The rocket's on the pad with 6-Million pounds of Oxygen and 2-Million pounds of Methane.  The countdown down to T-10 minutes, and then what?

Are you thinking that:

• Elon just made an announcement?   "Hey folks, we're not launching today. Because I said so. Wink-Wink.  And everyone pretend it was a frozen valve, Ok"

or

• Elon (or a trusted minion) secretly reprogramed the display software to just show a frozen valve? 

or

• Elon pulls a small number of folks aside the day/week before and tells them to 'pretend' that sensors were showing a frozen values?

 

...and when the engineering leads ask for the logs from the scrub, are they told that  "Top Men are working on it. Top.  Men"

 

 

Oh, I assume the stop on the 17th was legitimate. To be clear, I think Elon targeted 4/20 as his ideal date and a hard deadline for launch. I think if they could have gone on 4/17, he would have had no issue with it. But I also think not doing things like a wet dress rehearsal was ultimately his way of rigging things in favor of a 4/20 launch. What I do think was true is that he wasn't willing delay the launch past 4/20 if at all possible. 

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

starlink launch this morning: https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl3-5

launch through the fog at vandenburg 8:40

stage 1 re-entry transonic 16:20

 

falcon heavy launch this evening: https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=ViaSat-3-Americas

stream at 18:15, launch window at 18:29 universal texas time

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

tonight's heavy launch was just scrubbed due to weather

backup window tomorrow, bat time / bat station

url remains

[UnivTex34 1763]

13 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

tonight's heavy launch was just scrubbed due to weather

backup window tomorrow, bat time / bat station

url remains

 

https://twitter.com/SpaceflightNow/status/1651740386769944579?s=20

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

bump

looking for heavy action in less than an hour

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

updated launch time 1926 texas time

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

weather is 70% favorable

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

stream opens in 40 minutes 708pm

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

T-7

https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=ViaSat-3-Americas

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

RP-1 load complete

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

LOX load complete

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

abort callout at T-00:59

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

standing by for update

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

full abort

next window in 24 hours

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

today's heavy attempt at 1929 cape 1829 universal texas, stream ~15mins before

https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=ViaSat-3-Americas

musk statements yesterday evening on the starship test:

 

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

t-30 seconds

go for launch

liftoff

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

max q

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

nominal at 2:00

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

beco x2

sep confirmed

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

meco

mvac burning

4:58 fairing halves separation confirmed

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

6:02 20000 km/h

stage 2 nominal trajectory

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

seco

nominal parking orbit

2nd burn in 30 minutes

space tunes for 20 minutes

falcon heavy 5 LOS bermuda

[RamjetFDO 10577]

https://www.engadget.com/spacexs-starship-didnt-immediately-respond-to-a-self-destruct-command-120010127.html

Holy crap.

40 seconds delayed response?

[Dahobbs 17627]

15 minutes ago, RamjetFDO said:

https://www.engadget.com/spacexs-starship-didnt-immediately-respond-to-a-self-destruct-command-120010127.html

Holy crap.

40 seconds delayed response?

That explains the loops. It also seems... uh, not good. 

[0xdeadbeef 1651]

1 hour ago, RamjetFDO said:

https://www.engadget.com/spacexs-starship-didnt-immediately-respond-to-a-self-destruct-command-120010127.html

Holy crap.

40 seconds delayed response?

Scott Manley had a video speculating about exactly that the day after the launch. The FTS seems to have fired and punched holes in the first and second stages, but it wasn't enough damage or loss of pressurization to cause a boom.  That must be one bad-ass re-pressurization system? 

 

[Captainant 27708]

1 hour ago, RamjetFDO said:

https://www.engadget.com/spacexs-starship-didnt-immediately-respond-to-a-self-destruct-command-120010127.html

Holy crap.

40 seconds delayed response?

 

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

That explains the loops. It also seems... uh, not good. 

like deadbeef mentions, you can see in the footage recorded from the ground that the tanks WERE punctured by the FTS. It just wasn't enough to destroy the structural integrity of the tanks and spill the fuel to break up the rocket.

I would imagine that a major deviation from expected behavior will cause some challenges with cert if they're going to remain compliant with FAR's

[CycleTex87 2980]

Compliance issues will most likely govern the timeline for the next flight way more than repairing the launch pad.

[Texas Jeff 1945]

SpaceX's Starship launch, second attempt, may happen Friday, Nov 17th.   The two-hour launch window opens at 7am central time.

https://www.space.com/spacex-faa-license-second-starship-launch

The Starship stack, vehicle plus booster, is 397 ft tall.  It's 90 ft taller than the tower.

[elfenix 34331]

saw the FAA clearance note the other day.  wonder how bad trying to drive down there after getting off work and then sleeping in the car would be?

[RPM 26330]

They gonna sandblast Boca Chica again?

[Texas Jeff 1945]

4 hours ago, RPM said:

They gonna sandblast Boca Chica again?

They have a new water deluge system, let's see how it works out for them: