Another Survival pool Decision

[Bevo in VA 342]

Hoping to get some feedback from any Texans followers out there.

 

For this week, my best two options are either Chicago vs the Jags or the Texans vs. the Bengals.

 

I'm leaning towards the Bears as they're still playing for a playoff shot and Trubinsky is looking pretty good these last couple of games.  Jaguars are still the jaguars - been blown out the last couple of games.  Now that they're in the lead for the no. 1 draft pic, it might be time to totally tank.

 

I don't know much about the Texans of late.  Saw a few of their games early in the season and they didn't seem too bad.  They looked a lot better than their record but would still end up short on the scoreboard.  I think Cin beating Pitt last night was a fluke with Pitt having 3 TOs.  Every game I've seen Cinci play. they've been pretty awful - especially since Burrow went out.

 

So what say the braintrust here?

[shadow_operative2.0 15,942]

I’m not a Texans fan, but my Survivor rule in the past has always been pick a home team whenever possible. Hou is around -8/8.5 most places, so I’d lean that way. 

But then again Rams were -17 at home last week, so who the fuck knows. 

[HornPhD 1,368]

Houston

[Vic Mackey 47,006]

I have a decision to make, too

Ravens, Lions, Cardinals, Niners, Raiders, Jets, Bengals, Texans, Bears, Jaguars, Giants, Falcons, Broncos, Panthers, Washington, Eagles is who I have left

For this week: Cardinals/Niners Texans/Bengals Ravens/Giants, Bears/Jags

Look the most enticing. But next week's games, there are less enticing games. I would like to save my Ravens pick to next week when they finish the season against the Bengals. But I do not want to get too cute and lose this week.

I do not have a lot of faith in the Texans at all, even against the Bengals at home. I think the Cardinals should beat the Niners at home but you never know with divisional games and Arizona is and up and down team. Niners offense looked good against Dallas last week (I know, Dallas sucks). Jags are terrible and the Bears should win but do I trust my whole season with the Bears on the road?

Ravens will be big favorites this week against the Giants. And next week against the Bengals.

Next week, every single team favored to win I have already picked. If I picked Ravens this week, I would be left to try and choose the Cardinals to beat the Rams and I have zero faith that happens, at least not enough to risk my whole season on it.

[Bevo in VA 342]

Your list looks a lot like what I have left too.  I'm also saving the Ravens for next week against the Bengals - but like you, I have to wonder if I'm getting too smart for my own good by saving the pick.  Just comes down to who you can pick if you don't have Balt available for that last week.

That week 17 pick is tough in that you don't know which teams will be taking the week off for the playoffs or which teams are just mailing it in.  In your case, I think all of the options you have this week are better than Cardinals/Rams.

I was even looking at Washington vs Carolina this week and next week vs the Eagles.  Washington has a good defense which should match up well with Carolina but if Alex Smith is out, then they're hot garbage.

[Vic Mackey 47,006]

16 hours ago, Bevo in VA said:

Your list looks a lot like what I have left too.  I'm also saving the Ravens for next week against the Bengals - but like you, I have to wonder if I'm getting too smart for my own good by saving the pick.  Just comes down to who you can pick if you don't have Balt available for that last week.

That week 17 pick is tough in that you don't know which teams will be taking the week off for the playoffs or which teams are just mailing it in.  In your case, I think all of the options you have this week are better than Cardinals/Rams.

I was even looking at Washington vs Carolina this week and next week vs the Eagles.  Washington has a good defense which should match up well with Carolina but if Alex Smith is out, then they're hot garbage.

It is the whole dilemma of being down 3-2 in a 7 game series in baseball and deciding if you should throw your ace for game 6 or save him for game 7. But game 7 obviously will not happen if you don't win game 6. Just like here. Week 17 won't matter if I can't advance to it to begin with. But if I use my ace (Ravens), next week gets extremely dicey. Week 17 is usually full of divisional games and many teams might not be playing for much and will rest starters, making them even more unpredictable than they already are.

Ravens are still on the brink so they will be playing balls to the wall the last 2 games. And Lamar usually feasts on lesser teams.

[VolenteHawk 495]

The only two favorites next week that will for sure be more than a touchdown are Ravens and Colts (and they’ll both be upwards of two touchdowns), so there is huge value to having one of them left. So, I don’t think it’s too cute to save the Ravens unless you also have the Colts. I’ve been saving the Ravens for a month now since it started to look like they’d be the only big favorite with something to play for week 17, but I also haven’t used the Browns...so they’re my pick today.

If your pool is likely to go the distance, then game theory wise you need to hit the two team parlay regardless...I’d rather Bears/Texans - Ravens than using the Ravens this week and being in a coinflippy situation next week.

[VolenteHawk 495]

Now that the Browns entire receiver room is out, I’m likely switching to the Texans.

[shadow_operative2.0 15,942]

Well, today probably didn't go well for this thread. 

[Bevo in VA 342]

I went with the Bears after it started to look like the Jax starting RB wasn't going to be able to go.  In my pool, picks closed before the Browns Covid news came out so we lost 7 from that game.  Thirteen of us left going in the final week.

@Vic Mackey - who did you end up going with?

[Vic Mackey 47,006]

4 minutes ago, Bevo in VA said:

I went with the Bears after it started to look like the Jax starting RB wasn't going to be able to go.  In my pool, picks closed before the Browns Covid news came out so we lost 7 from that game.  Thirteen of us left going in the final week.

@Vic Mackey - who did you end up going with?

I took the fucking Cardinals lol. Fuck Kyler Murray and Kliff. Played like bitches against a 3rd string QB

I had a bad feeling after picking them. They never looked good. No idea why I didn't go with the Bears. But I picked against the Jags 3 times this year and every time was a nailbiter. Glennon always played really good. 

What makes it worse is a good chunk of our league lost with the Cardinals/Bengals/Browns going down. And i had the Ravens next week so it would be an easy pick for me against the Bengals. 

[shadow_operative2.0 15,942]

8 minutes ago, Bevo in VA said:

Thirteen of us left going in the final week. 

How many started? 

[Bevo in VA 342]

4 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

I took the fucking Cardinals lol. Fuck Kyler Murray and Kliff. Played like bitches against a 3rd string QB

I had a bad feeling after picking them. They never looked good. No idea why I didn't go with the Bears. But I picked against the Jags 3 times this year and every time was a nailbiter. Glennon always played really good. 

What makes it worse is a good chunk of our league lost with the Cardinals/Bengals/Browns going down. And i had the Ravens next week so it would be an easy pick for me against the Bengals. 

That blows.  Cardinals had everything to play for, and just looked like they didn't give a shit.

1 minute ago, shadow_operative2.0 said:

How many started? 

Started with 267.  I'll be riding the Ravens next week.

[VolenteHawk 495]

40 minutes ago, Bevo in VA said:

I went with the Bears after it started to look like the Jax starting RB wasn't going to be able to go.  In my pool, picks closed before the Browns Covid news came out so we lost 7 from that game.  Thirteen of us left going in the final week.

@Vic Mackey - who did you end up going with?

Thankfully I did too. As a long suffering Chiefs fan, I decided Romeo couldn’t be my ride or die. We’re down to 2 now, and the other guy doesn’t have Ravens for next week.

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by VolenteHawk