Dismantling the warriors

[Patrick Bateman 3,910]

So..... 50 games in and they're 23-17 and clinging to the 10th seed and play-in game.  Steph had been out but has come back and the frustration is real.

I think most folks aren't shocked they're in a dogfight for a playoff position, but with Houston dying early and Pelicans again being just aight, I think there was some hope they that the Warriors could have been in the 6/7 conversation.  Maybe they can if they go on a big roll but it's looking like an exciting offseason for the W's.  Will Minny hold onto their draft pick (top 3 protected) or will it convey to GSW?  Do the Warriors let Oubre go?  Can they move Wiggins?  Where and who may they draft with their pick?  What is going on with Wiseman, who has been...... disappointing?  Just a transition year?  

So many things could go right for them to make a big splash but they could also just be the same cast with Klay back and a late lottery pick.  That Minny pick is crucial.  Steph has been really good offensively this year, especially scoring but Draymond is still bleh.  Wiseman has struggled.  Oubre has disappointed and Wiggins is well.... Wiggins.  Going to need more than Klay to be a true contender again, IMO.

 

[HookEm 2,463]

I'm not a big GSW fan, but like the potential for their team going forward.  Wiseman just turned 20 a few days ago.  Big men always take longer to develop. He will be a good player. 

The difference between Oubre and Klay is just monumental.  Oubre shoots 30% from 3 this year vs. Klay's lifetime 42%.  That is huge.  Plus Klay has much better chemistry with the team, defense, leadership, etc.  Massive upgrade.  But it is really even bigger than that.  When Klay is back in the starting lineup, Oubre will get Bazemore's and Damion Lee's minutes.  So effectively it is Klay vs. Bazemore / Lee.  Those two are.... not great. 

Then you have Wiggins. He just turned 26 a few weeks ago and still has room for growth. He is shooting a career best from 3 (40%) and 2 (47.5%).  His turnovers are down. He is rebounding at the best rate of his career.  When Klay is back, even more pressure will be lifted off of him.  He can definitely be the 4th or 5th best guy on a championship squad.

Steph will be a solid player for as long as he plays.  Draymond gonna Draymond. He isn't what he was, but the team will be less reliant on him if Wiseman can keep developing.

Then you have a potential top 4-6 pick this year to add to the mix.  

[Wulaw Horn 19,063]

So- this was about as wrong as anyone could be. Didn’t think the stars would ever line up for them again, especially with Wiseman being irrelevant. 

[Hate 20,106]

Maybe they didn't really "need" KD after all? 

[aggie08 21,481]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So- this was about as wrong as anyone could be. Didn’t think the stars would ever line up for them again, especially with Wiseman being irrelevant. 

It's okay, Patrick Bateman has been matter-of-factly predicting the hypothetical demise of a sans KD Warriors since 2017.

I kid, I kid.

[Wulaw Horn 19,063]

11 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

It's okay, Patrick Bateman has been matter-of-factly predicting the hypothetical demise of a sans KD Warriors since 2017.

I kid, I kid.

I just reread the entire thread and it’s really not all that crazy stupid even in retrospect. 
I don’t understand this title, at all, and the dubs went into the playoffs looking incredibly unlikely to win anything of importance and then everyone else just kind of imploded around them, they ham and egged it in a couple series with different guys stepping up big while others sucked. Draymond  benched in 4th quarter.  Steph alternated being bad with sublime. 
It feels sort of like if you threw this all into a computer they might win 5 times or something like that out of 100, whereas their 5 NBA finals teams in a row felt like they’d all win somewhere between 50 and 90 times out of 100. 
Good for them. Obviously makes paying extreme and outrageous tax bills for a couple years of irrelevancy all worth it. 
 

Edited June 17, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[youdunnf'dup 2,147]

And just like that KDs championships are essentially worthless…

 

[aggie08 21,481]

 

 

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I just reread the entire thread and it’s really not all that crazy stupid even in retrospect. 
I don’t understand this title, at all, and the dubs went into the playoffs looking incredibly unlikely to win anything of importance and then everyone else just kind of imploded around them, they ham and egged it in a couple series with different guys stepping up big while others sucked. Dray ind got benched in 4th quarter.  Steph alternated being bad with sublime. 
It feels sort of like if you threw this all into a computer they might win 5 times or something like that out of 100, whereas their 5 NBA titles teams in a row felt like they’d all win somewhere between 50 and 90 times out of 100. 
Good for them. Obviously makes paying extreme and outrageous tax bills for a couple years of irrelevancy all worth it. 
 

5 times out 100? Come on, man. They were tied with the Suns for the best record in the league and had easily the league's best defense through ~40 games before Dray went down. Steph, Klay, and Dray played exactly one full quarter together all regular season. They limped into the playoffs because Steph was out and, historically, they almost literally can't score without Steph on the court.

They FINALLY got healthy at the right time.

I said early in the postseason: when healthy, this is the best top to bottom roster in the NBA. They didn't even need to play their promising young guys in the Finals.

Apart from one 55 beat down in Memphis, they rolled through the playoffs.

I know I'm a homer, but I'm not surprised by this.

[gmr548 16,576]

I figured they would bounce right back into title contention with the high pick, but I agree with it not panning out and Thompson getting injured, I wasn't sure if they had it left in them.

They were already HOF, but the Steph-Curry-Draymond trio absolutely just elevated themselves into all-time great team core territory.

[Aqua Buddha 14,581]

3 minutes ago, youdunnf'dup said:

And just like that KDs championships are essentially worthless…

 

This. 

I've said this a thousand times and I'll say it again.  Imagine if KD won a title in OKC and then went to GS and won a title there.  His legacy would be completely different.

He could have won a title in OKC.  He just didn't.

[AeroHorn 749]

KD was the MVP of those championships. They have very balanced team this year combined with playing against teams without playoff leadership. KD came within a toenail of single-handedly leading Nets to finals last year. KD was needed against the opponents they faced then. They needed a shot creator against Lebron's teams.

[Vic Mackey 47,006]

2 minutes ago, youdunnf'dup said:

And just like that KDs championships are essentially worthless…

 

They always were. Many knew that. He joined a 73 win team because he constantly choked and knew he wasn't going to win anything on his own. Coasted to a few rings. Decided to venture out on his own to prove everyone wrong and further exposed himself. His old team just beat the team who swept him in the 1st round. He also left Golden St to go play with Kyrie and Harden, which was pretty much OKC 2.0 but older. 

[gmr548 16,576]

Just now, aggie08 said:

 

 

5 times out 100? Come on, man. They were tied with the Suns for the best record in the league and had easily the league's best defense through ~40 games before Dray went down. Steph, Klay, and Dray played exactly one full quarter together all regular season. They limped into the playoffs because Steph was out and, historically, they almost literally can't score without Steph on the court.

They FINALLY got healthy at the right time.

I said early in the postseason: when healthy, this is the best top to bottom roster in the NBA. They didn't even need to play their promising young guys in the Finals.

Apart from one 55 beat down in Memphis, they rolled through the playoffs.

I know I'm a homer, but I'm not surprised by this.

You're both right. GSW were generally considered 4th or 5th best shot in the league and 2nd out of the west. Now, that probably does equate to a 5-10% chance, but that's because winning four seven game series is absurdly difficult.

[Vic Mackey 47,006]

Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

This. 

I've said this a thousand times and I'll say it again.  Imagine if KD won a title in OKC and then went to GS and won a title there.  His legacy would be completely different.

He could have won a title in OKC.  He just didn't.

He had plenty of chances. Especially in 2016. Going up 3-1 to this Warriors team and did not have it in him to close them out. It was that moment he decided to join the 73 win team who just went to back to back Finals. At least Lebron formed his own team in Miami to take down the team he could not beat which was Boston. KD was like Jordan joining Detroit or LeBron joining Boston. And then Lebron went back to his old team to team up with 2 guys who never won jack shit and a franchise who was dead last for many years.

KD left GSW because he knew his image was tarnished. He needed to get away to show he could lead his own team. And we all know how that's been going. Since he left, he's won a total of one single playoff series. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,063]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

You're both right. GSW were generally considered 4th or 5th best shot in the league and 2nd out of the west. Now, that probably does equate to a 5-10% chance, but that's because winning four seven game series is absurdly difficult.

That was my point on the 5 out of 100. Maybe it’s 10, but it’s really damn unlikely. We had a pick ‘Em contest with 10 entrants and I don’t think anyone took them to win the title. It was all Phoenix, Milwaukee, Brooklyn or Boston I believe. I think their 538 odds were single digits going in. 
 

I looked back and saw that I predicted them to be in the play in tournament in 21 and finish somewhere between 3 and 6 in the West in 22. Nailed all my predictions about how the last two years would play out for them. You know, all except for the one where I said they core was done hanging banners. 
 

Other than that Mrs Lincoln how did you enjoy the play? 

[gmr548 16,576]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That was my point on the 5 out of 100. Maybe it’s 10, but it’s really damn unlikely. We had a pick ‘Em contest with 10 entrants and I don’t think anyone took them to win the title. It was all Phoenix, Milwaukee, Brooklyn or Boston I believe. I think their 538 odds were single digits going in. 
 

I looked back and saw that I predicted them to be in the play in tournament in 21 and finish somewhere between 3 and 6 in the West in 22. Nailed all my predictions about how the last two years would play out for them. You know, all except for the one where I said they core was done hanging banners. 
 

Other than that Mrs Lincoln how did you enjoy the play? 

[youdunnf'dup 2,147]

12 minutes ago, AeroHorn said:

KD was the MVP of those championships. They have very balanced team this year combined with playing against teams without playoff leadership. KD came within a toenail of single-handedly leading Nets to finals last year. KD was needed against the opponents they faced then. They needed a shot creator against Lebron's teams.

It’s almost as if Steph wouldn’t have deferred to KD and he would’ve gone back to being the assassin he’s always been without KD on the team. 

[aggie08 21,481]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That was my point on the 5 out of 100. Maybe it’s 10, but it’s really damn unlikely. We had a pick ‘Em contest with 10 entrants and I don’t think anyone took them to win the title. It was all Phoenix, Milwaukee, Brooklyn or Boston I believe. I think their 538 odds were single digits going in. 
 

I looked back and saw that I predicted them to be in the play in tournament in 21 and finish somewhere between 3 and 6 in the West in 22. Nailed all my predictions about how the last two years would play out for them. You know, all except for the one where I said they core was done hanging banners. 
 

Other than that Mrs Lincoln how did you enjoy the play? 

I will say that Golden State definitely benefited from an unusually down West. Even Phoenix. Internally, I can promise you that they don't fear Phoenix. Like at all. They were bummed that the Suns choked themselves out. They would have reveled in sending CP3 home again.

[Rickylovesweed 14,262]

19 minutes ago, youdunnf'dup said:

And just like that KDs championships are essentially worthless…

 

I don't know about worthless but KD  needed the Warriors more than the Warriors needed KD. 

This definitely isn't good for Durant's legacy. The Warriors replaced him with Wiggins and didn't skip a beat. They likely aren't done winning championships either. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,063]

Just so you see I’m not crazy. 538 the week before the playoffs (April 7th) had the warriors at 4% chance of winning it all:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/
 

the week the playoffs started (April 14th) they had a 9% chance of winning it all. That’s one projection system- I know some of the other ones were pretty similar. That’s where I was getting my 5% or something like that chance at the start of the playoffs. 

Vegas had them at +1000, and with as much of a public team as they are that 10-1 was rigged and they’d have their true shot at winning a title in the single digits with those odds accounting for the juice. If they are paying out 10-1 for a warriors win they likely think the real chance is 12-1 or 15-1 since futures bets typically have garbage odds. 

Edited June 17, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[youdunnf'dup 2,147]

10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Just so you see I’m not crazy. 538 the week before the playoffs (April 7th) had the warriors at 4% chance of winning it all:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/
 

the week the playoffs started (April 14th) they had a 9% chance of winning it all. That’s one projection system- I know some of the other ones were pretty similar. That’s where I was getting my 5% or something like that chance at the start of the playoffs. 

Vegas had them at +1000, and with as much of a public team as they are that 10-1 was rigged and they’d have their true shot at winning a title in the single digits with those odds accounting for the juice. If they are paying out 10-1 for a warriors win they likely think the real chance is 12-1 or 15-1 since futures bets typically have garbage odds. 

Who could’ve predicted the suns choking as hard as they did. If you remove the suns from the picture, the warriors had as good a chance as anyone in the playoffs