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Jimbo 2020: Strangers with Candi

Machinator

By Machinator
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Neonmoon
Neonmoon

Just to recap Five Star WR and Aggy commit Demond Demas wanted to transfer from North Forest High School to Tomball High School. He stated it was to better his living situation, and not for athle

blacklab
blacklab
BurntOrangeCrush
BurntOrangeCrush

Hey everyone, just got back from Baton Rouge. I was taking my stepson there for an orientation (he got his GED and only qualified for Blinn, aggy, and LSU) and got to hang out with some of the local f

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
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7 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

Yeah but the numbers of SEC guys in the defat is inarguable (even though I agree with all your points), and there’s definitely an SEC bias in drafting as a result. Guys get a bump for producing in the SEC (and previously Big 12 defenders got a bump down). Time is definitely on our side. We can sell being the new look NFL conference.

Ultimately though, we’d just need to keep getting guys drafted. Once the 2018 guys finish their junior year, I expect our draft numbers and first round picks will see a large spike for the foreseeable future.

Everything you say is true.  Perception always lags reality, until that reality becomes the new conventional wisdom. 

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BigHorn'13

BigHorn'13 3386

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That schedule should scare aggy. I normally get skeptical of everyone's predictions here since I don't pay that much attention to the secX3, but correct me if I'm wrong--

Clemson lol 

Heard they never beat barn at home? Could be wrong but at the very least, they have the talent to match up. 

Bama lol

Mississippi schools. Never beaten both in same season, correct? So add at least one other L here. 

So assuming all else goes according to plan which is an oxymoron when talking aggy, they'll be 6-4 heading into at uga and at LSU. No fucking way they win both and splitting the two seems like a pipe dream. 

6-6 is a real possibility for them and could go a whole lot worse but hey. secX3 whoop!

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Napoleon

Napoleon 8694

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They are going to have to stay healthy but the reality is ... 

Texas State (HS)

at Clemson

Lamar (HS)

Auburn

Arky (Dallas) (Juco)

Bama

at Ole Miss

Miss State*

UTSA (HS)

SCar

at UGA

at LSU

7 minutes ago, BigHorn'13 said:

That schedule should scare aggy. I normally get skeptical of everyone's predictions here since I don't pay that much attention to the secX3, but correct me if I'm wrong--

Clemson lol 

Heard they never beat barn at home? Could be wrong but at the very least, they have the talent to match up. 

Bama lol

Mississippi schools. Never beaten both in same season, correct? So add at least one other L here. 

So assuming all else goes according to plan which is an oxymoron when talking aggy, they'll be 6-4 heading into at uga and at LSU. No fucking way they win both and splitting the two seems like a pipe dream. 

6-6 is a real possibility for them and could go a whole lot worse but hey. secX3 whoop!

 

They play 3 High School (Texas State, Lamar, UTSA) teams and 1 Juco team (Arkansas), so there are 4 wins right there.

While the Mississippi teams are down, they can win the home game. (*Miss State)

So with 5 wins already, they just have to win one of their home games against a weak SEC team to be bowl eligible. (Auburn or South Carolina) If they beat both of those bad teams, then they go into they are guaranteed a winning record.

They have 5 guaranteed wins and 4 guaranteed losses.

It would take something crazy for them to go 5-7. They should be expected to go 7-5, with 8-4 a possibility if Ole Miss continues to suck.

4 road games and 1 neutral site game vs a Juco. (SEC!x3)

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

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Every year people predict 6-6. It never happens. Why? Their schedule has three built in wins. And like it or not, they don’t recruit as bad the joke teams people think will beat them.  Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina. That’s easily 6 wins. They SHOULDNT lose to Miss State (I know they sometimes do.)

My point is they should easily talent their way to 7 wins. Then they sometimes luck into beating an LSU or Alabama or almost Clemson. 

There is no way in hell they are going 6-6 

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cochamps

cochamps 1879

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9 hours ago, sushihorn said:

Yes.  "We play against FCS and the worst teams in FBS OOC, plus primitive offenses that will make defenders look good in conference" sounds great on paper.  Of course the NFL is moving sharply away from that offensive style so it won't really prepare players for future demands in the pros.

Details, details.

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TheFlyingBoat

TheFlyingBoat 906

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39 minutes ago, BigHorn'13 said:

That schedule should scare aggy. I normally get skeptical of everyone's predictions here since I don't pay that much attention to the secX3, but correct me if I'm wrong--

Clemson lol 

Heard they never beat barn at home? Could be wrong but at the very least, they have the talent to match up. 

Bama lol

Mississippi schools. Never beaten both in same season, correct? So add at least one other L here. 

So assuming all else goes according to plan which is an oxymoron when talking aggy, they'll be 6-4 heading into at uga and at LSU. No fucking way they win both and splitting the two seems like a pipe dream. 

6-6 is a real possibility for them and could go a whole lot worse but hey. secX3 whoop!

You have to be a moron to believe this. They have 4 guaranteed wins against Texas State, Lamar, UTSA, and Pig. They have a game against a neutered Ole Miss and Miss State at home. Both should be wins. They're already at 6. Auburn is normally due for one of their nonsense miracle runs about now but I wouldn't be surprised if they suck again and Gus will finally fail to do a magic act to save his job. That's 7. SCAR could be decent but with the talent disparity, A&M should have the edge. Either that or they could steal one of the four very difficult games they have. The road to seven is easy, eight is my expectation and nine wouldn't not surprise me with their schedule. While it is very top heavy and would give most teams 2-4 losses the bottom is easy as shit. If they don't get to 8 after bowl season lol @ Jimbo

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Elmer_Fudd

Elmer_Fudd 22312

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I think at some point Arky is going to sneak out a win.  They've lost by a single score for so many years they'll eventually win one.  And Starkle is probably better than anything they've trotted out in recent years.

Who knows with Auburn game.  They'll be breaking in a new QB and replacing all linebackers, but return most other positions.  That game is early in the year and aggy does have to replace a lot of pieces.

No clue what Miss. State will be like.

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BigHorn'13

BigHorn'13 3386

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15 minutes ago, TheFlyingBoat said:

You have to be a moron to believe this. They have 4 guaranteed wins against Texas State, Lamar, UTSA, and Pig. They have a game against a neutered Ole Miss and Miss State at home. Both should be wins. They're already at 6. Auburn is normally due for one of their nonsense miracle runs about now but I wouldn't be surprised if they suck again and Gus will finally fail to do a magic act to save his job. That's 7. SCAR could be decent but with the talent disparity, A&M should have the edge. Either that or they could steal one of the four very difficult games they have. The road to seven is easy, eight is my expectation and nine wouldn't not surprise me with their schedule. While it is very top heavy and would give most teams 2-4 losses the bottom is easy as shit. If they don't get to 8 after bowl season lol @ Jimbo

They've never beaten both Mississippi schools in the same year but ok, I'll count it as 2.

Auburn at best should be a toss up but if I'm conceding both miss schools, I'm saying L here. 

So 7-3 heading into at uga and at LSU. I guess (right now at least) I don't see 8 season wins, and 7 has to go exactly according to plan. 

It'll be interesting to watch. 

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Mikey4

Mikey4 2476

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Every year people predict 6-6. It never happens. Why? Their schedule has three built in wins. And like it or not, they don’t recruit as bad the joke teams people think will beat them.  Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina. That’s easily 6 wins. They SHOULDNT lose to Miss State (I know they sometimes do.)
My point is they should easily talent their way to 7 wins. Then they sometimes luck into beating an LSU or Alabama or almost Clemson. 
There is no way in hell they are going 6-6 
They had six losses in 2017! They suck even with 3 built in wins.
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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11521

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1 hour ago, BigHorn'13 said:

They've never beaten both Mississippi schools in the same year but ok, I'll count it as 2.

Auburn at best should be a toss up but if I'm conceding both miss schools, I'm saying L here. 

So 7-3 heading into at uga and at LSU. I guess (right now at least) I don't see 8 season wins, and 7 has to go exactly according to plan. 

It'll be interesting to watch. 

I think Aggy will get by both Mississippi schools this season. Ole Miss isn't any good, and they catch MS State at home. 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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6 minutes ago, Sejjr said:

The crux of all of the aggy arguments requires the "inferior competition" myth. 

Yep.  And 3-1 in bowl games + a beatdown of UGa pretty much blew that myth out of the water.  Perception is starting to catch up to reality but aggy will be the last to figure it out.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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1 hour ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

They're so dense sometimes. The big receivers thing is a very big part of our identity on offense. 

 

wait, are they saying we're going after johnny wilson by negative recruiting a&m's wr usage/situation?  do they really think that's our silver bullet?

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EZ$

EZ$ 2105

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7 hours ago, sushihorn said:

Yep.  And 3-1 in bowl games + a beatdown of UGa pretty much blew that myth out of the water.  Perception is starting to catch up to reality but aggy will be the last to figure it out.

Well, aggy and the entire media. It will take 3-4 more years of SEC bowl beatdowns before the media narrative changes.  Georgia was a start, LSU this year is a must.  

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Fud

Fud 9552

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13 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Every year people predict 6-6. It never happens. Why? Their schedule has three built in wins. And like it or not, they don’t recruit as bad the joke teams people think will beat them.  Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina. That’s easily 6 wins. They SHOULDNT lose to Miss State (I know they sometimes do.)

My point is they should easily talent their way to 7 wins. Then they sometimes luck into beating an LSU or Alabama or almost Clemson. 

There is no way in hell they are going 6-6 

Their realistic ceiling for next year is 8-4, and their floor is 7-5. Their theoretical ceiling and floor are 9-3 and 6-6, but neither of those are likely happening. I'm just hoping they get absolutely booty blasted in those last two games and finish the season on a laughable note. 

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Fud

Fud 9552

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33 minutes ago, satyanash said:

It's not so inconceivable that A&M takes one of the Clemson-Bama-jawja-LSU quartet.

Even if you give A&M a mere 15% chance to win each individual matchup, that leads to roughly a 50/50 shot of them winning at least one of the four.

There's a greater chance that they lose one of the other games than beating one of the tougher four, so they essentially cancel out 

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20304

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1 hour ago, satyanash said:

It's not so inconceivable that A&M takes one of the Clemson-Bama-jawja-LSU quartet.

Even if you give A&M a mere 15% chance to win each individual matchup, that leads to roughly a 50/50 shot of them winning at least one of the four.

I am no rocket surgeon, but I am pretty sure that is not how probabilities work. 

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satyanash

satyanash 14601

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1 minute ago, Vertigo said:

I am no rocket surgeon, but I am pretty sure that is not how probabilities work. 

As long as they're independent events, I don't see why not. Plus 15% is a bit conservative, I'd rate A&M's chances of beating LSU again as higher than that.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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1 hour ago, satyanash said:

It's not so inconceivable that A&M takes one of the Clemson-Bama-jawja-LSU quartet.

Even if you give A&M a mere 15% chance to win each individual matchup, that leads to roughly a 50/50 shot of them winning at least one of the four.

Way less than 5% chance vs Clemson and Bama.  <10% vs UGa.  Maybe 15% vs LSU.  20-25% chance they win one of them.  Odds of them losing to Auburn are pretty close to even.  30-35% chance they lose to MSU.  They are also more likely to lose to Ole Miss or even SC than they are to beat the top 2 teams on that schedule.

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satyanash

satyanash 14601

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20 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Way less than 5% chance vs Clemson and Bama.  <10% vs UGa.  Maybe 15% vs LSU.  20-25% chance they win one of them. 

what? A&M had a 33% chance of beating Clemson, 11% chance of beating Bama, and 58% chance of beating LSU last year heading into the individual games per FPI. You're seriously going to drag those percentages down to <5%, <5%, and 15% next year respectively?

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Machinator

Machinator 32099

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Satya has a point in that there's a chance they pull it off against one of the teams on their gauntlet (LSU, if I were to guess). However, there's also a good chance they stumble against one or two of the teams they're supposed to beat - one of the Mississippi schools or Auburn, if I were to guess. 8-4 sounds right and 7-5 is quite possible as well.

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Fud

Fud 9552

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Machinator said:

Satya has a point in that there's a chance they pull it off against one of the teams on their gauntlet (LSU, if I were to guess). However, there's also a good chance they stumble against one or two of the teams they're supposed to beat - one of the Mississippi schools or Auburn, if I were to guess. 8-4 sounds right and 7-5 is quite possible as well.

LSU at night in death valley a week after A&M plays at Georgia? Even Ed O can't fuck that one up.

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sdm

sdm 892

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39 minutes ago, BigVegasHorn26 said:

Particularly with revenge on their mind after the colossal f job by the officials in CS last year.  

This, LSU will want to punish aggy after getting jobbed in collie station last year.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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1 hour ago, satyanash said:

what? A&M had a 33% chance of beating Clemson, 11% chance of beating Bama, and 58% chance of beating LSU last year heading into the individual games per FPI. You're seriously going to drag those percentages down to <5%, <5%, and 15% next year respectively?

FPI is pretty useless as we've documented repeatedly.  Not even worth responding to a 33% chance that aggy beats Clemson.  LOL

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