2021 Rain Thread

[phdhorn 6224]

Alright, here we go...

Really good chance of severe weather in our region.  Strong low coming in, this one's coming more at us rather than going north.  That means stronger uplift, etc.  Then we have a pretty aggressive Gulf flow coming in (you see the winds out there).  We have the dry line moving over us about dinnertime.  And lastly (and this is the big one), we have in/out sun, heating us up.  Basically, the less sun, the better.  NOAA:

We're in the "slight and marginal" area, but that doesn't mean crap really, look how narrow they are.

 (Goddammit, hit the wrong fucking button.. to continue...)

So, 2-stage event:
1) Storms start developing west of us mid-afternoon.  Some of these storms can easily be tornadic, until a line congeals.  We should be in the latter part, but still a very, no, really good possibility of 1-2 of us unluckies geting hail, and a tornado not out of the question in our area (mosty in that red area north of us though).  Along with a really good chance of strong, damaging winds somewhere in the line.  Not a widespread thing, but the typical "you're fooked" if you're in the path.  Watch out for the line forming out there about 3 p.m. or so.  I will.

2) After the severe weather (and threat) moves east, we still have a good chance for a lot of rain *in scattered areas* (not everyone) all night.  This is the first "flooding potential" situation we've had in some time, and someone might get a lot of rain.  Again, not all, or the way things go lately, almost none.  But this should be the case into tomorrow morning - periods of very scattered heavy rain, the rest of us light to moderate (maybe a brief period of heavy) rain.  Worst of this should be north but we're definitely in the soup.  Can't completely rule out more severe weather, but most of the intensity will move east with the earlier event, so it's really low.  This more of a lot of rain thing.

The strength of all the factors making severe weather in this one is higher than our past severe situations this year so far.  But you know how it goes - could be nuthin'.   However,  I would definitely park your car under something later this afternoon and even into the overnight.

My guess (uh-oh) is that severe weather will occur this time, but could be anywhere along a 300 mile line, so you tell me.  The answer as always is to "watch the radar" later today.  If a hail-containing dangerous supercell pops up, they tend to stay that way on a long march, so you can predict if it'll hit you or not.  Otherwise, flip a coin.  Good luck, we're all counting on you.

Edited April 28, 2021 by phdhorn

[miguelito 11262]

or put another way,

 

[Nonbryan 173]

2 hours ago, Wally Pryor said:

Seeing some training on the horizon. 

Choo Choo baby!!!!...Choo freakin Choo!!!!

[clapclapclap 9000]

Hey fellow kids, shake it loose together
The spotlight's hitting something
That's been known to change the weather:

A strong and kinked Bennie and the Jet Stream

https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/200mb

 

Edited April 28, 2021 by clapclapclap
You know I read it in a magazine

[Orange&White 5522]

[Hate 20108]

That needs to move about 50 miles northwest.

[clapclapclap 9000]

That matches the latest map from forecaster Pacman:

[83Horn 1640]

This seems like an appropriate place to drop this for weather nerds.  This guy gets some fantastic shots of storm activity and tornadoes.  Anyone else here follow him?

 

[Chet Steadman 940]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

That needs to move about 50 miles northwest.

That target area is nearly perfect for inflow into Travis.  

[phdhorn 6224]

Dry line is out between Junction and San Angelo right now.  That's where the action will be next few hours.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

So this current cloud cover can't hurt anything right? Right!? 

[Guest Lobo]

2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Dry line is out between Junction and San Angelo right now.  That's where the action will be next few hours.

I know it's still 48 hours away, but forecast in Austin for this weekend looking like lotsa rain but intermittent.  Selfishly, how do you think the baseball series with Tech will shape up weather-wise (7:00/2:30/2:30p)?  

[phdhorn 6224]

53 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

So this current cloud cover can't hurt anything right? Right!? 

It might not help, but definitely can't hurt (make it more likely).

5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I know it's still 48 hours away, but forecast in Austin for this weekend looking like lotsa rain but intermittent.  Selfishly, how do you think the baseball series with Tech will shape up weather-wise (7:00/2:30/2:30p)?  

Friday iffy, the rest too early to tell.  My guess is that worst case scenario is 2 on Sat.  They'll get the games in.

[Guest Lobo]

I never doubt your prognostication, but Saturday looks much more saturated than Friday or Sunday.  That's me doubting nature btw.

[Wally Pryor 5261]

3 hours ago, 83Horn said:

This seems like an appropriate place to drop this for weather nerds.  This guy gets some fantastic shots of storm activity and tornadoes.  Anyone else here follow him?

 

2:35

Balls of steel, shit for brains, or both.

[phdhorn 6224]

I'll run this again, worked last week (good rain, no boom booms).  

However, I really doubt that this time things won't blow up.  The farther east the dry line comes, the more soaked and ripe the air is.  I see no way whatsoever that this doesn't flare up within the next hour.  That lack of sun today might be a factor so far, however.

[83Horn 1640]

5 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

2:35

Balls of steel, shit for brains, or both.

Yeah, I think it's a combination of balls of steel and a really large telephoto lens.  3:08 is the more mind boggling image to me.  It looks as if the tornado is coming down right on top of him.

[phdhorn 6224]

4 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I never doubt your prognostication, but Saturday looks much more saturated than Friday or Sunday.  That's me doubting nature btw.

That's your loss.

Yeah these storms are going to stick around but TS's come and go.  I still they they'll get 'em all in.  But like I say, gotta wait 24 hrs. to see what crystalizes.

Gotta get thru tonight first.
 

[phdhorn 6224]

Okay, the line is definitely ramping up now.  Del Rio thru Sonora thru just E. of San Angelo.  That's it, that's the one.  Keep an eye on severe areas, those are most likely to track far and would be the bullseye(s) for our area.

BTW, if something doesn't happen, well remember that marginal means marginal.  It's not supposed to happen a lot.  Perspective.  It's not like the entire state will be tsunami'd.  But if you're under it, might as well be.

I've posted a lot here in the last 10 minutes, so I'm done now.  Park your car under something hard.

[texhorn 351]

That target area is nearly perfect for inflow into Travis.  

A little far to the south.

[phdhorn 6224]

Tornado watch now in Hill country ending in counties bordering (but not including) Travis/Hays/Williamson. Depending on what happens to that current line, this could be extended into our counties. Keep an eye out.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

Hondo is under tornado warning. Hopefully nothing comes down.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

NWS now saying confirmed tornado near Hondo.

[miguelito 11262]

No rain yet, but continuous thunder in Boerne. 

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

Ya'll in the SA area; keep your head up and stay safe now:

 

[Bevo Num1 1011]

Ya'll in the SA area; keep your head up and stay safe now:
 

That thing is getting some rotation.

[Paper_jam 831]

Yeah I would not want to be in the Hondo, Castroville, or SA area now. Best of luck to any Surly denizens there.

 

 

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

Just now, Bevo Num1 said:

That thing is getting some rotation.

Yeah, it's tightening up:

 

[austingirl 2191]

The sky here in north Austin is started to get that weird greenish color. Stay safe, y'all.

[Bevo Num1 1011]

Yours is cooler than mine.

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

1 minute ago, Bevo Num1 said:

Yours is cooler than mine.

 

You can have mine.

Radarscope.  It's not a weather app, it's a dedicated radar app.  If it's not the best radar app for mobile devices, then I don't know what else would be.

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

It's so wrapped in rain that you probably couldn't see it:

 

[MissingInAction 25037]

That looks bad. 

[BurntOrange&White 39931]

1 minute ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

It's so wrapped in rain that you probably couldn't see it:

 

Heading right to me 

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

3 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Heading right to me 

Damn.  Get prepared.

[Mighty fine 169]

This is that cell about an hour ago. Wasn't sure if that was a hook at first, but yeah, watching this on radar has been something else

[texhorn 351]

Yeah, it's tightening up:
 

Holy fuck.

[phdhorn 6224]

T&P in San Antonio, hopefully it'll weaken like the storms are supposed to when they get our way.

We lucked out, it's moving slightly NE but too far south to probably impact much of Travis, though San Marcos might get the edge, and this is if it doesn't expand.
Bad storm.

Edit:  Pretty good windmaking line heading NE through Mason, San Saba, and Burnet.  Could drop some brief hail the way it looks right now, might weaken.

So far Austin is again in the middle of the goalposts, but I expect that line to fill in, at least a bit.

Edited April 29, 2021 by phdhorn

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

Tor warning for San Antonio:

 

[phdhorn 6224]

5 minutes ago, Mighty fine said:

This is that cell about an hour ago. Wasn't sure if that was a hook at first, but yeah, watching this on radar has been something else

A storm behind it caught up and merged.  Not what you want, ever, in a rotating supercell.  Just like putting a defibrillator on it.

[phdhorn 6224]

Interdasting... that's a bad storm when this happens.
 

 

[boknowstecmo 216]

San Antonio is about to get wrecked, holy hell. 

[Updawg 2266]

Interdasting... that's a bad storm when this happens.
 
 

Yeah I can see glimpses of lightening and hear thunder in circle c. Crazy

[Updawg 2266]

Interdasting... that's a bad storm when this happens.
 
 

Yeah I can see glimpses of lightening and hear thunder in circle c. Crazy

[DaysOff 7947]

Finger echo

[Bevo Num1 1011]

Tornado warning in Ft. Worth.

[phdhorn 6224]

I looked at the CONUS visible and there was a clear patch all day along the Rio Grande from Del Rio down almost to McAllen.  Temps in that stretch got above 90° today.  It's no wonder that this thing is so bad down there.

So far, if you were to ask me, I'd say our cloud cover today (which lasted all day, wasn't expected to) has been a help.

However, one more line I think is working itself up out by San Angelo. I expect this line to be less intense as the daytime's ended, but if we're gonna get severe in ATX, it'll be that one.  I'd say chances are 30% someone within 100 miles of downtown will get some hail or strong wind.  I don't think tornado for that line.

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

Strong rotation over Castroville at 8:15

 

[Bevo Num1 1011]

Interdasting... that's a bad storm when this happens.
 
 

Did I read that right? That is fucking insane.

[phdhorn 6224]

Yeah, I think we're gonna get spanked by the line forming now just E. of San Angelo.  Probably about 10-11.  That's likely wind and hail in some pinpoint location. But that's a textbook dry line spring complex.

Storms are supposed to weaken by the time they get here... uh, we'll see.