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2021 Rain Thread


South Austin

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Last night was much better than Wednesday night.  Looks like tonight and Saturday night gonna be another fireworks show however.  

What a pisser. No baseball, kids on crap sleep for Grandma's first visit in 18mos.  Mosquitoes coming back online.  Hallelujah .  Holy shit.  Where's the booze? 

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On 4/29/2021 at 8:22 AM, dingleberryswitzer said:

I washed my car Sunday for the first time in probably 6 months.  You’re welcome Texas. 

Anytime we need rain, Arthur, my concrete guy calls me and asks if I need any concrete poured. This time the DFW area can thank me for drilling a water well. We set surface casing on Wednesday, and it's rained ever since.

CHIEF

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10 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Last night was much better than Wednesday night.  Looks like tonight and Saturday night gonna be another fireworks show however.  

What a pisser. No baseball, kids on crap sleep for Grandma's first visit in 18mos.  Mosquitoes coming back online.  Hallelujah .  Holy shit.  Where's the booze? 

I saw a mosquito the size of a nickel on my porch last night.  He looked at my citronella plants and snickered in my face.  "Wichyo bitchass!"

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And we’ve got thunder and lightning.  Please let the kiddies sleep through it tonight.  

Got woken up by thunder at like 1:30 or 2:00. Sounded like a fucking bomb went off. Took me a while to get back to sleep. I imagine there are some sleep deprived parents this morning.
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Is it looking like the baseball game Saturday is going to be canceled? I’ve been planning to drive up from Houston for the day. 

Idk if it’ll be canceled or not but it isn’t going to be a fun day to sit outside and watch baseball. Stay home and throw up LHN if they play it.
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1 minute ago, gmr548 said:


Got woken up by thunder at like 1:30 or 2:00. Sounded like a fucking bomb went off. Took me a while to get back to sleep. I imagine there are some sleep deprived parents this morning.

And dog owners whose dog starts shaking at the sound of light rain, and goes into a full blown panic attack with thunder.

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43 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Idk if it’ll be canceled or not but it isn’t going to be a fun day to sit outside and watch baseball. Stay home and throw up LHN if they play it.

Yeah my wife is 18 weeks pregnant and has been very hormonal/emotional this week. I’m heading to Austin and getting out of the house for a peaceful day one way or another. 

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53 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Got woken up by thunder at like 1:30 or 2:00. Sounded like a fucking bomb went off. Took me a while to get back to sleep. I imagine there are some sleep deprived parents this morning.

Yep. I knew son was gonna be up and with us. But it was bad enough to get daughter freaked out which rarely happens. Gonna need a quick lunch nap today. 

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Update:

Alright, after a break I looked at more crap and here we go.

We're in the heaviest-rain forecast we've been in for several months at least.  However, that's kind of relative, as we've had few big-rain events since at least early last year spring (2020).  I think most of the severe threat (if you can call it that) is rain.  A couple of storms might be loud/strong, but this doesn't involve a cold front plowing through and causing hail/tornadoes/wind turbulence - much.  Mostly heavy rain in strips/areas, etc.  The setup we have makes things a little tricky to predict rain - we're kind of squeezed between lows.  That's always potentially a heavy rainmaker and difficult to pinpoint.  Here's the situation:

The big low that caused Wednesday night's fun has lost some energy but is still sitting in N. Mexico.  A trough (low ridge) is forming out in the Gulf SE of the TX coast.  South Central/SE Texas is caught between a rock and a hard place (these two lows).  Basically they can feed off of each other and strengthen (including infusing the low in Mexico again).  Plus this low is slowly resuming its track east - getting closer to the Gulf trough, and to more moisture.  We're the middle of the sandwich.  And that's always a possibility of huge rains.  Once it hits the boundary between the two lows, it could ramp up bigger TS's.  This is a Saturday/night event.

Right now NWS has most of the bullseye SE and E of us in the eastern third of the state, esp. SE Texas.  A flash flood watch up for counties east of us - but again that could waft back into our area.   These two lows will fire at us from opposite sides, starting later today (radar already showing heavier rain expanding toward us from the SE).  I think most of our rain will come this direction for most of today beginning late afternoon.  Then tomorrow the other low will fuse up as it moves up into our area more or less.  That puts heavy rain likely for some of us (wouldn't be surprised if a FFW expanded to us).  This low will really take over Saturday and especially later in the a.m. through overnight.  Not only heavy rain possible, but a few low-end severe (wind, maybe some very scattered small hail, but this isn't a softball-sized situation).

This is not a widespread flooding event, but more a few strands within the region getting 4-5 inches.  Some places in SE TX could get 8-9 or more, though not officially forecast (I've seen this too often to not at least consider it).  What sucks is people could get 1/2 inch total - or 5-6 in our area.  Very tough to pinpoint.

So, here's the best I can coin flip:

Fri.:  Rain picks up, gets steadier through the afternoon.  Chance of heavy rain, esp. Bastrop/Caldwell and SE of us... BUT, could bleed back into ATX.  My guess is most of us will see periods of light to moderate rain maybe 1/2 to 2 inches in the region.  That's a guess.

Sat.:  As the Mexican low moves east, it merges more with the coastal trough, and fires up bigger storms along the boundary, which is now just SE of us.  Still, larger storms, some possibly a bit severe, could come through.  This is a Saturday - Sat. night event.  Really up in the air right now if the storms get strong (right now not so much, that'll change possibly).  Again, targeted mostly E-SE of us, but could bleed back to us easily.

So the "likelikood" for ATX is maybe 1-2 inches of rain, much more east and southeast of us - but watch the weather it could get really rainy here.

I.e.
"He's not gonna want to walk the bases, so look low and away."
"Right."
"But watch out for in your ear."

Sun.:  Outta here by mid day, some clearing.

Moar Latur iff needdedd.

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5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Whatever happened to that release of 2 million male-only mosquitoes that was supposed to fuck up their gene pool for months at a time?  

Florida. Just started.

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/weird-science/genetically-modified-mosquitoes-be-released-florida-after-years-planning-n1265512

But because it's Florida...

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/30/health/genetically-modified-mosquitoes-us-scn-wellness/index.html

Quote

A small, vocal group of Florida Key residents have fought the release of what they call "mutant mosquitoes" since the project was announced -- and they are incensed.

"Our opposition has been long and strong," said Barry Wray, the executive director of the Florida Keys Environmental Coalition. "We live here, this our home, and they're forcing this down people's throats."

Quote

"The only thing you can do legally at this point is stand in your yard with an insect fogger," said Mara Daly, a resident of Key Largo, Florida, who has fought the release for eight years. "You can't touch a box, but you can fog the s**t out of your own yard if you don't want to be a part of the trial."

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Whatever happened to that release of 2 million male-only mosquitoes that was supposed to fuck up their gene pool for months at a time?  

Sitting in their momma's basement playing PS2 all day and night.

CHIEF

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Great now I gotta worry about genetically modified incel mosquitoes who can't reproduce, getting pissed off at the world and forming insect supremacist groups and buying weapons because they're incapable of biting.  2021 looking up, baby!

Rain really coming down now in the 78722 and just heard first crack of thunder at 2:05p.  Great.  

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2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Great now I gotta worry about genetically modified incel mosquitoes who can't reproduce, getting pissed off at the world and forming insect supremacist groups and buying weapons because they're incapable of biting.  2021 looking up, baby!

Rain really coming down now in the 78722 and just heard first crack of thunder at 2:05p.  Great.  

Don't worry, the dipshits who are against better forms of mosquito control are going to fog the shit out of their lawns.

Meanwhile, there's a cow pissing on a flat rock outside.

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Are you pre-op or post-op trans if you were genetically modified by the EPA before birth?  

I was really hoping this experiment on real land was gonna go smoothly so it could be emulated in Texas.  But now, they're gonna have to do an environmental impact study of those en masse fogging machines.  So that'll take another 3-5 years.  I am racking my brain trying to think of the last thing Florida didn't fuck up, and I can't come up with anything.  

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Planning to meet a buddy and his wife/kids out at Sherwood Forest Fair between Elgin/Giddings tomorrow. Probably get there mid morning, and with the ages of our kids, be out of there by 2:00. So, any chance of that actually happening without being washed out? In other words, are the storms going to hold off until afternoon/evening like most spring storm events because of daytime heating?

 

Edited by hornian
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20 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

No shit. My high school theater club hit up the Ren fair every year. Hanging out with your hot ass theater chick buddies in their elf and fairy outfits was a lot of fun.

Now hold on a second...YOU were in theater?!?

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1 hour ago, hornian said:

Planning to meet a buddy and his wife/kids out at Sherwood Forest Fair between Elgin/Giddings tomorrow. Probably get there mid morning, and with the ages of our kids, be out of there by 2:00. So, any chance of that actually happening without being washed out? In other words, are the storms going to hold off until afternoon/evening like most spring storm events because of daytime heating?

 

angry nerd GIF

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Update:

Things are converging (literally) to produce a lot of rain on us, or very near us.  The frontal boundary between the two lows is just SE of us but close enough that moderate to heavy rain is popping up.  Travis is now on the northen edge of the Flash Flood watch area (Wiliamson isn't).  Most of the heaviest rain should be a little SE of us (Bastrop, Lee Fayette, etc. co's) but certainly it could waft towards us.  Easily 4-8 inch totals in this area; we're not right in the worst, but keep alert, we could get there.

This heavy rain event should last well into this evening and well into the overnight hours.  As the low moves east, the rain might move with it, but the frontal boundary could still be somewhat stationary and allow for training.  Definitely a flash flood situation could develop on or near us.  Just keep an eye out.

Should get a bit of a break early just around dawn, but heating will cause the second wave of this.

NWS has chances of rain 100% tomorrow, somewhat uncommon, means it's gonna rain everywhere if you're in SE Texas.  Again, ootential for heavy rain and a bit more risk of strong storms briefly.  Keep an eye out.  Should all move out by late Sat. night (or at least taper off).

Saturday is not going to be and outdoor day, especially after mid-late morning.

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4 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

I'm playing golf at 8AM tomorrow morning. Please keep the rain away for 3.5 hours. Thanks.

As long as you're not golfing in Bee Cave, you'll be fine.

Edited by utee94
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