2021 Rain Thread

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

3 hours ago, Blotto said:

I think average temps are mid 80s this time of year, so no complaints from me.

Well so much for my Sunday to Monday surf fishing/camping trip.

[ROFL BOX 6649]

On 5/11/2021 at 5:02 PM, utee94 said:

It's never going to rain again.

Not with that attitude, it won't.

[ROFL BOX 6649]

On 5/11/2021 at 8:32 PM, Wiler77 said:

Jack and shit thus far in Driftwood.  My sprinklers are going, and I'm not turning them off.  Trying for the reverse jinx.

We did a shingle reapair for blowoffs in Rimrock... think that was on Friday last week.

[Walte464 450]

RGV got hammered this morning with 3-4 inches and 60 mph winds. Trampolines we’re flying farther than south Austin’s mom on a home game bender.

[Hate 20112]

The heavy rain keeps moving west.  Right now the forecast is perfect for putting a lot of water back into Lake Buchanan and Lake Travis.

Edited May 13, 2021 by Hate

[LonghornSean 4008]

So from what I can tell based on iPhone's 10-day forecast, we may never see the sun again?

[crash_davis 23113]

28 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

So from what I can tell based on iPhone's 10-day forecast, we may never see the sun again?

it if rains for a week straight and fills up all the hill country and west texas lakes, it'll be a great trade off.

[Hate 20112]

From Jeff Lindner at the Harris County Flood  Control District:

 

Enjoy the current dry weather…as an extended period of wet weather is likely starting this weekend into much of next week.

Surface high pressure is starting to move east and a return to onshore flow and Gulf of Mexico moisture return will begin on Friday. An upper level storm system will move into the SW US this weekend and cut off from the main upper level flow aloft resulting in a series of disturbances moving across TX and interacting with the increasing moist air mass. The end result will be periods of showers and thunderstorms with some severe weather and heavy rainfall looking likely during he period from Sunday-Wednesday.

It is difficult to determine which days or times will be most likely for rainfall, but really any point from Sunday onward could see rounds of thunderstorms. Given increasing moisture levels and the slow motion of the “parent” storm system over the SW US, an extended period of a heavy rainfall threat and flooding will be possible over portions of C, N, and E TX into next week.

It will be important to monitor forecasts over the next few days as changes are likely along with an eventual better idea when episodes of storms can be expected.

Jeff Lindner

[phdhorn 6224]

Looks like a complex of rain is moving up into us from SAT and points SW.  Forcefield is really trying to knock it back, not quite succeeding.  Good chance to get wet, my guess isn't too much, but enough to make puddles.  This will hit around 4 or so.  The complex is definitely picking up, not fizzling, so I'm expecting a few hours of light/moderate showers.

Tomorrow a better chance, and strong storms possibly.

Tuesday is particularly of note for severe weather.   Better than "yeah, whatever" chance of a pretty wet workweek coming up.  

Don't think Sunday will be severe but could get rainy, esp. later in the day.

Be back probably tomorrow early, or not, if nothing is up.

Edited May 15, 2021 by phdhorn

[Hefeweizen 5328]

We need Buchanan to get soaked.  That would start the summer off right.  I just don’t want a five inch plus event in Austin.  That would really suck.

[phdhorn 6224]

Forcefield won out today, storms crept up right on our cusp but just stayed south of us. But it would be a shocker even for me if we didn't get a large dose of rain over the next 4 days. Big low coming in, moving slow, lots to trigger heavy rain in the state. Starts Sunday but really picks up Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday is the big one it looks like.

[jimmyjazz 45975]

Would love it for the big rain to hold off until mid-afternoon Sunday.  Much appreciated.  K, thanks, bye.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

Holy shit—that was about the heaviest rain I’ve ever seen. It didn’t last super long—maybe 20 minutes—but fuck that was a lot of water.

[Biff Tannen 45691]

16 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Would love it for the big rain to hold off until mid-afternoon Sunday.  Much appreciated.  K, thanks, bye.

Nope

[Hefeweizen 5328]

These are some very intense rains.  Interesting to see the total out of this event.

[Orange&White 5528]

I have had 2.3” since midnight. 2” of that in the last 3 hours. 1.35 of it in the last 60 minutes. It was pouring for about 20 minutes.

Another .29” in the next 15 minutes and it is still pouring down in sheets.

There is about 2” of standing water in the yard. Just turned off the sprinklers for a few weeks.

Edited May 16, 2021 by Orange&White

[hornian 5219]

25 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I have had 2.3” since midnight. 2” of that in the last 3 hours. 1.35 of it in the last 60 minutes. It was pouring for about 20 minutes.

Another .29” in the next 15 minutes and it is still pouring down in sheets.

There is about 2” of standing water in the yard. Just turned off the sprinklers for a few weeks.

Get yourself a Rachio; it does it for you! 

[Guest Lobo]

$300 versus me walking out to my garage, grabbing a beer from the back fridge, opening the system panel, drinking half the beer, turning the system off, drinking the other half of the beer, closing the system panel for free?  

[cactusflinthead 27601]

 

[williemackgarza 1826]

My boys and i played in the rain and watched the pool fill with 2” of rain in less than an hour this afternoon. Was crazy hete in round rock.

[ROFL BOX 6649]

2 minutes ago, williemackgarza said:

My boys and i played in the rain and watched the pool fill with 2” of rain in less than an hour this afternoon. Was crazy hete in round rock.

What zip or nearest major intersection?

I have a house that backs up to Brushy Creek that I have been telling the homeowner to let us cover his missing shingles & he seems to think the insurance co. won't like that.

[Guest]

6 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Last 2 nights we've had some high energy storms in the Panhandle/ West Texas. They have brought beaucoup lightning/ thunder, lots of significant  hail, and isolated downpours.  I have a cousin and his wife whose 6 month old house is about 6 miles from the spot in your photo.

We need the rain badly.  Getting shit all tore up is the scary part.

Edited May 17, 2021 by slorch

[Hate 20112]

It's going to be a wet week...like your mom's.

 

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
438 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed May 19 2021 - 12Z Thu May 20 2021

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...

The upper/mid-level trough will transition from a neutral to
slightly negatively-tilted orientation during this period. This in
turn will help slow the movement/progression of the convection, as
well as, become more favorable for back-building across eastern
and southern Texas. Models suggest very strong vertical motion
will set up over much of coastal Texas and areas inland-- this is
also where the PW values of 1.5 inches is double the seasonal
average for this time of year. Southeast winds of 25 to 35 kts
will continuously direct Gulf moisture onshore which will future
fuel and maintain convection development. Most of the guidance
depict another 2 to 6 inches falling over saturated areas, many of
the same areas that will have received several inches during the
prior two days. The 72-hour footprint across this region has areal
averages of 3 to 9 inches with isolated higher amounts certainly
possible. A Moderate Risk was issued for much of eastern/coastal
Texas and far southwest Louisiana. Several urban areas fall within
this risk area and will likely experience numerous areas of
impactful flooding. A Slight Risk cover most of the eastern half
of Texas, southeast Oklahoma, western Arkansas and Louisiana. The
Marginal covers west-central Texas, most of Oklahoma, southeast
Kansas, western Missouri, east-central Arkansas ans central
Louisiana. If model consensus and confidence continue to trend
upward, and/or observations reveal higher amounts than forecast,
there may be the need to entertain a narrow high risk area in
future updates (possibly over WFOs San Antonio and Dallas/Fort
Worth's area) given that the 72-hour amounts approach 8-9+ inches.
 

Edited May 17, 2021 by Hate

[Post Oak 20243]

12 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

What an amazing location.  Sounds like the opening line from a novel

[Guest]

So this afternoon, forecasts are for hail.  Baseball sized hail.

 

Seriously?  Yeah, I know it happens, but how we s’posed to prepare for THAT?

[Native Horn 3504]

14 hours ago, Lobo said:

$300 versus me walking out to my garage, grabbing a beer from the back fridge, opening the system panel, drinking half the beer, turning the system off, drinking the other half of the beer, closing the system panel for free?  

Well you could afford the Rachio if you didn't buy frivolous things like "back fridges"!  

[Trey3216 15347]

43 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

What an amazing location.  Sounds like the opening line from a novel

Was gonna say that NE of Sudan is pretty much east of Earth, as in...it's like a whole other planet.  

[Trey3216 15347]

41 minutes ago, slorch said:

So this afternoon, forecasts are for hail.  Baseball sized hail.

 

Seriously?  Yeah, I know it happens, but how we s’posed to prepare for THAT?

Need one of those bug bomb bounce houses for the entire residence.   

[phdhorn 6224]

Ain't Got Time Fo Dis Shit Weathah:

Today:  Not a lot of rain.
Tonight:  Rain.  Thunder.  Stay Awake.
Tuesday: Lots of rain.  Biggest rain day.  Severe here/there but not everywhere.
Tues. Night:  Lots of rain.  Biggest rain day.  Severe here/there but not everywhere.
Wednesday:  Less rain, but rain once, maybe twice.
Wed. Night:  Less rain, but rain once, maybe twice.
Thurs - Sat.:   Less rain, but rain once, maybe twice.

[Skipper 6136]

Massive water dump in DFW yesterday with lots of localized flooding, moderate rain this AM, and supposed to be a replay of yesterday with lots of rain later tonight.  Then there is a good chance of rain every day in the 10 day forecast.  WTF.  Is this just one of those systems or are we setting up for one of those years where we have a super rainy May and June across the State?  I'm over it.

[Nicole44 22061]

46 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Need one of those bug bomb bounce houses for the entire residence.   

Why doesn’t a surly have this business? We’ll bounce proof the outside of your humble abode and your car(s)! 

[Trey3216 15347]

1 minute ago, Nicole44 said:

Why doesn’t a surly have this business? We’ll bounce proof the outside of your humble abode and your car(s)! 

[phdhorn 6224]

Well, okay, 3 more pseudo-quick things:

1) W. Texas is under an "moderate" risk today.  That's pretty rarely issued.  I've only seen the highest of the 5 levels (mysteriously titled "high" ) issued twice in my experience - both times yeah, it was awful.  "Moderate" would also make me uncomfortable.  Lubbock, put mattresses on your cattle.

2) We're officially out of a La Niña event now, and into "normal."  But La Niña is expected to return later this summer.  If you remember (and you probably don't), El Niños are usually cooler, wetter for S. US, Niñas warmer, drier.  Our May certainly did not live up to NOAA expectations for their 3-month awhile back, which is actually a little unusual.  Although our rain isn't much over normal for the year, and although we have some drought spots in TX, the rain has been spaced out enough that our area is pretty green still right now.  See https://www.kxan.com/weather/weather-blog/la-nina-has-ended-for-now-what-that-means-for-central-texas-weather//

3)  As usual, what happens in the spring can affect the start of, but certainly not the duration of, summer.  No doubt that early June now will be moderate due to all the moisture in the ground - that affects weather.  But the last few years we've had cool and rainy early summers - sometimes right up into August - and then it goes Mercurial.  For at least 3 of the last 5 years our Septembers have been hotter than our Julys.   Interdasting.  So as they say in the stock market, "current weather is no guarantee of future results."

NWS has continued to up model totals for our area by late next weekend.  5" average.  We'll see about that, but they seem pretty sure.  I do know that Tues. and Tues. night is the most likely day to get most of it.  Probably a flash flood watch issued tomorrow.  Careful, that's gonna be the day to watch for.  The others maybe.  Be back if they ramp up.

[texasdago 7575]

I do appreciate that now that I live in Austin, you can assume that flooding water won't blanket the entire landscape like it would living in Houston.  On that note, watch those low water crossing cornholes.  Also on that note, Gus Fruh is going to kick ass when this rain moves on and the bacteria gets a bit flushed out of the system.

Edited May 17, 2021 by texasdago

[miguelito 11266]

You know who likes all this rain?  Mosquitos.

[Hpara759 1780]

14 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

somebody needs help with their directions.....if this is NE of Sudan it is going to be SW of Earth

[Biff Tannen 45691]

29 minutes ago, miguelito said:

You know who likes all this rain?  Mosquitos.

They are already as big as my hand in my backyard and my deck is covered in salt from trying to blast them with the Bug Assalt.

[ROFL BOX 6649]

As I drive across Barton Creek from the MoPac overlook, if it is 01 July & you can still see water in the creek, it's been a good year thus far.

That's my barometer.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

[cactusflinthead 27601]

 

[ROFL BOX 6649]

We have a Shagger² roof to do this week uonin DerkaVille - real estate closing is due on Friday.

This rain is a hurtin'.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

[Nicole44 22061]

Just snapped this of approaching storm

[Orange&White 5528]

11 minutes ago, ROFL BOX said:

We have a Shagger² roof to do this week uonin DerkaVille - real estate closing is due on Friday.

This rain is a hurtin'.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk
 

I think it is technically, "PDerkaville"

 

Edited May 17, 2021 by Orange&White

[Nicole44 22061]

[Pescado_Rojo 19422]

11 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Just snapped this of approaching storm

umm...are we neighbors? 

 

On second glance, I don't think we are. We don't have those streetlights. But damn if that doesn't look like the view down my street right now. 

[Nicole44 22061]

Just now, Pescado_Rojo said:

umm...are we neighbors? 

 

On second glance, I don't think we are. We don't have those streetlights. But damn if that doesn't look like the view down my street right now. 

I’m 78717. Same as @Armybrat

[Pescado_Rojo 19422]

8 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Watching that storm on accuweather it looks like it dumped some hail on Llano. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19422]

Just now, Nicole44 said:

I’m 78717. Same as @Armybrat

Close. I'm at the south end of 78628. Right near 1431 and Sam Bass/CR 175. 

[Reagan1k 3024]

4 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Watching that storm on accuweather it looks like it dumped some hail on Llano. 

I can't speak to the hail, but in looking at my game cameras,  the rain was akin to a cow pissing on a flat rock there for several minutes.

Edited May 17, 2021 by Reagan1k

[Nicole44 22061]

Oooh

[Trey3216 15347]

3 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Oooh

Good form