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2021 Rain Thread

South Austin

By South Austin
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Last night outside Lubbock.

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He puts the hospital in hospitality   

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My 13yo dog kept trying to shove past me to go outside.  We had to have a conversation: Me: ”Girl don’t go out there, it’s dangerous” Bindi: ”I must investigate this disturbance” M-”The

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6,224

Posted
Posted (edited)

10-20% chance of rain this morning.

Well, that's nice,but it's raining hard in Bee Cave - where it always rains.  Probaby 3/4" in the last 10 mins.  Looks like a brief but decent line is going to go through most of us next half hour or so.

Approaching 2007 feel, when it always rained and the summer was the coolest in 50 years.  And the next 7-8 days are forecast to rain a lot.  But even if not a lot, it should be cloudy a lot which will keep moisture in the ground and temps down until at least halfway into June, if not longer.

But of course this year ain't that year, and July and August are still looming out there like a sadistic Marine drill sergeant.  

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6,224

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I know today is Memorial Day and people have outdoor plans, and for the most part, I hope and definitely expect that there'll be a break today and people can get outdoors...

.... I will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, (etc. x 10,000,000) complain about rain and sub-90 temps ever ever (again X 10,000,000) after June 1 of any Austin summer.

BTW, the "real" rain event pretty likely to happen is a fairly strong line of storms coming in between dinner time and sunset.  Watch yer asses out on the lakes/links, keep a radar or weather app or whatnot handy.  If it looks like it's gonna rain all of the sudden, you have about 20-30 mins. to get outta there.  Use it.

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Bevo

Bevo 13,592

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17 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

10-20% chance of rain this morning.

Well, that's nice,but it's raining hard in Bee Cave - where it always rains.  Probaby 3/4" in the last 10 mins.  Looks like a brief but decent line is going to go through most of us next half hour or so.

Approaching 2007 feel, when it always rained and the summer was the coolest in 50 years.  And the next 7-8 days are forecast to rain a lot.  But even if not a lot, it should be cloudy a lot which will keep moisture in the ground and temps down until at least halfway into June, if not longer.

But of course this year ain't that year, and July and August are still looming out there like a sadistic Marine drill sergeant.  

What's the forecast this week? I'm suppose to go boating on Thursday (Travis).

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6,224

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9 minutes ago, Bevo said:

What's the forecast this week? I'm suppose to go boating on Thursday (Travis).

Rain.  

Least rainy day in the new forecast is... well, I guess today and Tuesday.  Rain chances are pretty high Wednesday (80%) then "dip" to about 60% Thurs (I think they'll go up), and go up to 80-90% Fri thru Sun.

The one hope is many days it doesn't pan out that way, but there's a big low that's just sitting west of us just like last week, sending little disturbances up our way and tons and tons of humidity from the Gulf.   This cutoff low won't get going again until maybe Fri or Sat.

You might get your boating in, but it won't be a hot, sunny day... that much is certain.

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Chet Steadman

Chet Steadman 940

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Another good rain storm right now in Central Austin.  lol at almost all the forecasts showing a dry Memorial Day Weekend just as recently as Wednesday/Thursday.  

Are we still pretty certain the sun will come out today or are we looking at clouds all morning and afternoon?
 

 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6,224

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1 minute ago, Chet Steadman said:

Another good rain storm right now in Central Austin.  lol at almost all the forecasts showing a dry Memorial Day Weekend just as recently as Wednesday/Thursday.  

Are we still pretty certain the sun will come out today or are we looking at clouds all morning and afternoon?
 

 

Visible sat certainly doesn't think it'll clear much.  But the sun does have a way of burning through.

You can decide for yourself on this visible loop ( updates about every 30 mins):
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=01&length=24

Here's a still shot from it:

stillshot.png.6a316804656515b590f8390cc3853ffb.png

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Yeah, I know PhDhorn has a life apparently during the week but we need his good mojo this weekend.  Every site has 40-50% of scattered thunderstorms all weekend long.  

This could get messy.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6,224

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It's way too early to know exactly but this could be the most interrupted regional in memory. Going by the current forecast, I would say it's going to be an into Monday regional. But, things can change and they probably will.

And yes, somehow I have a life on the weekends AND the weekdays. I have uniforms and everything.

Plus I'll be in DC from Thursday until next Tuesday. I'll check in but I won't be able to forecast the weather in the incredibly accurate way I usually do, by going outside and looking up.

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40,861

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9 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Rain.  

Least rainy day in the new forecast is... well, I guess today and Tuesday.  Rain chances are pretty high Wednesday (80%) then "dip" to about 60% Thurs (I think they'll go up), and go up to 80-90% Fri thru Sun.

The one hope is many days it doesn't pan out that way, but there's a big low that's just sitting west of us just like last week, sending little disturbances up our way and tons and tons of humidity from the Gulf.   This cutoff low won't get going again until maybe Fri or Sat.

You might get your boating in, but it won't be a hot, sunny day... that much is certain.

We are attending a grandson’s Austin High graduation tomorrow - 2pm at House Park Stadium. Supposedly families are to park at the high school and school bus shuttles will haul us up there (and back).

In case of rain, the Burger Center Facility is the indoor alternate location. As of this afternoon AISD hasn’t made the call yet. I bet those idjits won’t until the last minute tomorrow.

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40,861

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3 hours ago, Armybrat said:

We are attending a grandson’s Austin High graduation tomorrow - 2pm at House Park Stadium. Supposedly families are to park at the high school and school bus shuttles will haul us up there (and back).

In case of rain, the Burger Center Facility is the indoor alternate location. As of this afternoon AISD hasn’t made the call yet. I bet those idjits won’t until the last minute tomorrow.

Am surprised.... AISD just moved tomorrow’s Austin High graduation ceremony down to the indoor facility at Burger Center.

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hookemATL

hookemATL 11,806

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9 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Plus I'll be in DC from Thursday until next Tuesday. I'll check in but I won't be able to forecast the weather in the incredibly accurate way I usually do, by going outside and looking up.

This is fucking unacceptable. Why do we pay you in gifs and pithy comments if you aren’t even going to do your goddamned job?!?

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6,224

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Theme so far... came across this, is it even more kickass than Clapton's version?  It's pretty damn close.  Any excuse to play this.  When God thought of guitar sounds, he thought of what you're hearing on this.
 

 

Edited by phdhorn
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Deej

Deej 76,875

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Theme so far... came across this, is it even more kickass than Clapton's version?  It's pretty damn close.  Any excuse to play this.  When God thought of guitar sounds, he thought of what you're hearing on this.
 

 

It's going to drop more moisture than a room full of old rock stars with bladder control issues?

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6,224

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43 minutes ago, Deej said:

It's going to drop more moisture than a room full of old rock stars with bladder control issues?

Look man, as healthy for you and beneficial as heroin and cocaine are, especially when used heavily in a mixture with alcohol for 20 years, there are some slight side effects but rub some dirt on it and it'll feel better.

Oh yeah, this is a weather thread. Won't rain tomorrow until about 2 or 3, then it'll rain. More tomorrow.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6,224

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2 minutes ago, Modessit said:

I don't buy it.

Yeah, me neither.  So here we go:

Update:  Very similar situation to last week - big low out west (over Cali desert) spinning and throwing little shortwave lows up our way.  Some of 'em have punch, some of 'em not.  And it's hard to know where and how strong they'll end up going, and when they'll flare up.

Right now the rain situation is much less than thought.. i.e. it's dry and kinda mostly sunny.  But... the more sun with this low, the more stuff can stir up thru daytime heating, and so quick and powerful storms can pop up.  I don't see anything on the radar (the complex well N of us by Abilene is really a separate thing and won't affect us - any weather we'll get will come from the S or W or in between).

My guess is that we'll start seeing this fill in later today, and it's pretty hard to conclude that we won't see a lot of rain again starting later today or tonight.  The next 4-5 days have the same thing - periods of moderate-heavy rain scattered all over most of the lower 3rd of Texas thru Saturday at least.  And this will be helped even more by afternoon sunshine.

So my guess is that today, things will stay steady until 4-6 ish then things might pop up and peak at or after sundown.  Then another round early tomorrow.  But the rain should be brief if heavy here and there.  Won't be an all-day thing.   But this low is going to send more lowettes our way over the next few days - metaphysical certitude.  It's not that the amounts of rain forecast over next 4 days are astronomical, but they're pretty hefty and with the ground soaked, minor and brief flooding in spots.

Chances 50% today, 60% later tonight, and 70% or thereabouts thru Saturday.

We've seen this before, big rains forecast and nuthin', but I do think that it would be really rare that, based on this forecast, there isn't a day or two over the next six that outdoor plans will be screwed up with rain events.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6,224

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Oh, and temps all through this are forecast to be 80's (although if it doesn't cloud up today, we'll get close to 90°... but still...).

First week of June.  Only about 5 days > 90° in the last month, or even since last fall.  Seriously?  We're either gonna have a superb summer or July - September are saying "hold my beer" as they prep to get up off the couch.

Still, there is a lot of moisture on the ground almost everywhere in Texas, and that does help affect weather patterns, ya better believe it, Pilgrim.  Right now half of June will be great, no matter what (takes about 2 weeks to totally dry up the ground based on what we have).  Baby steps...

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Nicole44

Nicole44 22,072

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3 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Looks like we got a pretty strong complex coming in from the NW.  A race to get here vs. when the sun goes down and these get weaker or even fall apart.

Which will it be?

ETA:  about 8:15-8:30 ATX area.

👀 Looks like it will be interesting in 78717 in a bit. 

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