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2021 Rain Thread

South Austin

By South Austin
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Bash Riprock
Bash Riprock

Last night outside Lubbock.

Trey3216
Trey3216

He puts the hospital in hospitality   

Homercles
Homercles

My 13yo dog kept trying to shove past me to go outside.  We had to have a conversation: Me: ”Girl don’t go out there, it’s dangerous” Bindi: ”I must investigate this disturbance” M-”The

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Guest

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Posted (edited)

Nice little cold front this morning in the Panhandle.

only dropped about .1” of rain, but temp was 57 this morning.  

Edited by slorch
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, slorch said:

Nice little cold front this morning in the Panhandle.

only dropped about .1” of rain, but temp was 57 this morning.  

It was 80 and 94% humidity when I took my dog for our 5 mile walk at 6:45 this morning.  It took me a good hour to stop sweating afterward.   

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Weather.com has it rolling into South Austin around 2:00am.  But who the fuck knows?  It's a fucking steamy bowel of clam chowder out there right now, anything would be a reprieve.  A beautiful Spring but apparently we fucked it up and Summer's coming on with the vengeance of a thousand hot taints.  

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45897

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Lobo said:

Weather.com has it rolling into South Austin around 2:00am.  But who the fuck knows?  It's a fucking steamy bowel of clam chowder out there right now, anything would be a reprieve. 

My wife, who is second only to Tom Herman in the "high IQ but makes dumb decisions" race, decided to water our lawn this evening. 

At 5 PM.

I apologize to all our neighbors for the microjungle climate she created, because not only did it do no good to water in the heat of the afternoon, she actually managed to make it more humid than it already was anywhere near our house.  Good job, honey.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23466

Posted
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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

My wife, who is second only to Tom Herman in the "high IQ but makes dumb decisions" race, decided to water our lawn this evening. 

At 5 PM.

I apologize to all our neighbors for the microjungle climate she created, because not only did it do no good to water in the heat of the afternoon, she actually managed to make it more humid than it already was anywhere near our house.  Good job, honey.

The mosquitos thank her. 

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3254

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Paper_jam said:

At my NE ATX hovel, last night was all show and no go. Didn't even fully wet the sidewalk. I am disappoint.

same in 78728.  both of my rain gauges broke and i haven't replaced them yet but the sidewalk was dry last night when i checked at 2am.

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Shaggybevo

Shaggybevo 353

Posted
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3 minutes ago, ROFL BOX said:

Any update on actual tornado activity or even hail in that NE Blanco / SW Burnet / W Travis area?

The NWS backed off pretty quickly on the tornado warning - they may have actually ended the warning early.  Unsure about the hail.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Early part of next week good chances of rain Monday and tuesday. Not a washout.

Wednesday through Friday, just spotty showers but mostly dry.

Temps all week will hover around the 90° mark, a little below July norms.

More probably tomorrow.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Alright, lemme e-lab-bore-ate.

Nice way to usher in July (those who were saying "the cool weather's gone" were a bit preemy, huh? - never say never, but yeah, I know that probably after this stretch we could be in the smelter once and for all, but I have reason to doubt a bit.... another post... remind me to say why).

We got an interesting 2-ply scenario here.  First, a  typical summer savior - weather coming in from the Gulf.  A low is moving E to W towards us.  This is due to the summer jet lifting more N and allowing the Easterlies to expand and blow stuff our way (which is also why hurricanes come towards the U.S.).  So it's always good when we get weather from the Gulf in the summer.  But the second situation over the country is a bit unusual... a big blocking high in the East is preventing weather from moving W→E, so the weather is being squeezed SE, much as a winter or spring pattern.  And we got that bigass hot high out west baking the NW, which is preventing storms from tracking to the N in the first place, so they are swinging below it into the southwest U.S.  So that's forcing a frontal boundary down into Texas, which is kinda rare (although we just had one last week).  As a result, we have a one-two punch.  The front from the NW will hang out for a few days, and stuff under it, esp. just to its south, will get wet (where that is is a dice roll).  The low is going to move into us, and now it looks like it'll collide more with the front to produce more lift, and more weather - this is why models have trended up the past 2-3 days.  Of course, this is Austin, and it's summer, so Ron Paul It's Not Happening can dominate (i.e. predicted shit fizzles out).  Never say never regarding that in Austin in the summer.

But, I think there will be enough mixing up of crap with these two things that it would be highly unlikely that at least something wouldn't fall over you, even if for a brief spell, over the next 4 days.  I think a good swath will get a good amount of rain, not flooding or anything, but enough to re-wet the ground and keep temps down yet another week or two (in the summer, every day under 100° is one less day it might go over it).  But where this swath is?  <crickets>.  Hopefully over us.

Of course the best thing about this, with or without rain, is temperatures.  We're expeting a full 5-6 days of under norms, and at least 1-2 of those under 90° (and despite the weeping/gnashing of teeth above over 2/3 of June, it only officially got over 100° 2 days - that's it.  Not as bad as thought).  So anyway, this should be a very nice week - yeah a bit soupy but lots of clouds and hopefully some good soaking rain.  I. Will.  Take.  That.  Any. Day. In. July. Bitches.

So therefore:
Today - noticeably cloudier through the day, temps a little lower than the last few, although I could see them getting easily into mid-90's, looking more like 93° or so max in the hottest parts, cooler in most.  Chance of spotty showers pretty good starting mid-afternoon.  Not everywhere, but enough that a lot of us will see them.

Mon-Wed - this is the peak of it all, with Tues-Wed. especially, as the low moves into Texas and bumps into the front.  Again, where that front stalls or slows will be the mostest rain.  Days will be clearly cooler, lots of clouds again and hopefully a good bit of rain for most of us.  I hurt writing that, because it is summer in Austin, yeah right, but I think this is gonna happen to some degree.

Thu-Fri - rinse and repeat, but gradually increasing sunshine and temps, decreasing rain chances.  Highs back near 97° ish, rain returns to spotty and scattered, but definitely still in the picture.

Outdoor plans should be decent today (but watch after about 3-4, but nothing severe or long-lasting).  Not so great Mon-Wed, and good enough to risk  Thur-Fri. 4th fireworks etc... too soon to comment on that in detail, but probably decent as most of the weather will have ended by then.

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Rip76

Rip76 4925

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Alright, lemme e-lab-bore-ate.

Nice way to usher in July (those who were saying "the cool weather's gone" were a bit preemy, huh? - never say never, but yeah, I know that probably after this stretch we could be in the smelter once and for all, but I have reason to doubt a bit.... another post... remind me to say why).

We got an interesting 2-ply scenario here.  First, a  typical summer savior - weather coming in from the Gulf.  A low is moving E to W towards us.  This is due to the summer jet lifting more N and allowing the Easterlies to expand and blow stuff our way (which is also why hurricanes come towards the U.S.).  So it's always good when we get weather from the Gulf in the summer.  

You can see that ULL moving into the corpus area.  With moisture to the North and East.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/20211781216-20211781621-GOES16-ABI-GM-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

 

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