2021 Rain Thread

[HouTex 1866]

Getting really sick of the rain in Houston. I don’t think we’ve had five days without rain in the last 3 months. I’m guessing we have had 1.5 inches in the last 30 min in 77057 and still coming down.

[bolverk 29671]

I'd like to say, it's July 5 and I'm in the drive thru at Dan's in South Austin. My car says it's 81° outside and it's currently sprinkling. This is fucking wonderful - I don't care how humid it is.

[phdhorn 6224]

Update:

Not much right now, busy but wanted to throw this in:

The frontal thing that was responsible mostly for whoever got weekend rains, is around but weak, and fizzling.  However, cockblocking situation I mentioned above in place, high west of us will (unfortunately for them, great for us) restrengthen a bit over Western U.S. for a few more days.  This results in dry/heat for West, but for disturbances to be squeezed down to us the next few days.  That's what's happening today, a very large % of the state receiving rain right now.  Amazing tropical soothing rain in Bee Cave the last 30 mins. Aaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh....

Slow trend to warmer, drier by weekend.  But the week remains glorious - under normal temps through Friday, 90° might not even be hit a few of them.  Rain chances good through Tues, start declining Wed→Fri.

This is fucking glorious weather.  Anyone who truly is bitching about humidity, "I feel icky" etc. I will try to personally visit with a face-shovel STFU.  It's July.  It should be 99° and rain chances = to a Surly-ster banging Sonia Hayek after she's begged 3 weeks for it.  I was downtown last night for the fireworks and I cannot fugging remember any 4th that was as pleasant.  My god it was nice!

Enjoy because it's not going to last. However this summer so far has proven to break all predicted molds.  No, not break, shatter into microscopic pieces.  Every day like this is one less un-like it.

More later.

Edit:  Salma, Sonia, whatever.  The beautiful one with the great rack.

Edited July 5, 2021 by phdhorn

[Chet Steadman 940]

When all of this is over it would be interesting to compare this summer to Summer 2007.  

I would guess May-June-July ‘07 had a higher rainfall amount but this summer has had more days of measurable rain.  

[mchookem 16328]

wherever/whatever is popping off, 78757 has had the forcefield fully engaged. kinda want some rain to make it here!

[phdhorn 6224]

2.7 " at the ranchero in Bee Cave. Where...

[phdhorn 6224]

Snapshot of this pattern since it's kind of unusual. Somebody went apeshit with all the lettering but basically a big high is out west, a big high is out east, and the lows are in the middle.

[Brisketexan 105098]

34 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Snapshot of this pattern since it's kind of unusual. Somebody went apeshit with all the lettering but basically a big high is out west, a big high is out east, and the lows are in the middle.

[phdhorn 6224]

BTW today was the earth's aphelion day.  Of course the earth's orbit is elliptical around the sun and not symmetric (i.e. the sun isn't square in the geometric middle of earth's orbit).  94.5 million miles away.

Goes to show you the irony that the hottest part of the summer occurs while earth is farthest from the sun, not the closest.  This is because of the direct, hotter rays on the N. Hemisphere as it's "leaning" towards the sun at 23 degrees, and the resulting heat built up and stored on the earth's crust, influence weather patterns and build up the summer heat more than anything else.

Which is also why it's usually much hotter in mid-August than in mid-April, though the length of day is roughly the same and actually shrinking in August while growing in April -  ground and atmosphere heat hasn't built up yet in April, whereas it has by August.

Edited July 6, 2021 by phdhorn

[bolverk 29671]

1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

BTW today was the earth's aphelion day.  Of course the earth's orbit is elliptical around the sun and not symmetric (i.e. the sun isn't square in the geometric middle of earth's orbit).  94.5 million miles away.

Goes to show you the irony that the hottest part of the summer occurs while earth is farthest from the sun, not the closest.  This is because of the direct, hotter rays on the N. Hemisphere as it's "leaning" towards the sun at 23 degrees, and the resulting heat built up and stored on the earth's crust, influence weather patterns and build up the summer heat more than anything else.

Which is also why it's usually much hotter in mid-August than in mid-April, though the length of day is roughly the same and actually shrinking in August while growing in April -  ground and atmosphere heat hasn't built up yet in April, whereas it has by August.

Not sure where you're going with this, but I think most of us understand that when the northern hemisphere tilts toward the sun that it gets more rays and stores up more energy, causing August to be warmer than May. Funny enough, the same process in the southern hemisphere occurs when it gets more sun. In each case, that tilt toward the sun is called "summer" while that same period is called "winter" on the other side.

Not sure what the aphelion has anything to do with it, because it's still winter, and therefore the coldest part of the year, south of the equator.

[CleverNickname 1308]

7 hours ago, bolverk said:

Not sure where you're going with this

Earth tilt causes the seasons, but aphelion is a point in orbit. Separate mechanisms. He mentions it because he is a huuuuuuge nerd.

[Blotto 23498]

7 hours ago, bolverk said:

Not sure where you're going with this, but I think most of us understand that when the northern hemisphere tilts toward the sun that it gets more rays and stores up more energy, causing August to be warmer than May. Funny enough, the same process in the southern hemisphere occurs when it gets more sun. In each case, that tilt toward the sun is called "summer" while that same period is called "winter" on the other side.

Not sure what the aphelion has anything to do with it, because it's still winter, and therefore the coldest part of the year, south of the equator.

If by "us" you mean weather nerds on this thread, perhaps. If you are talking about the average person in the US, 95% cant even be bothered to entertain the discussion because there's a rerun of "Ow my balls" that demands their immediate attention. Aint got no time for this science shit. 

 

[miguelito 11262]

Getting Biblical rains in NW SA.  7" in some areas this morning. 

 

[phdhorn 6224]

8 hours ago, bolverk said:

Not sure where you're going with this, but I think most of us understand that when the northern hemisphere tilts toward the sun that it gets more rays and stores up more energy, causing August to be warmer than May. Funny enough, the same process in the southern hemisphere occurs when it gets more sun. In each case, that tilt toward the sun is called "summer" while that same period is called "winter" on the other side.

Not sure what the aphelion has anything to do with it, because it's still winter, and therefore the coldest part of the year, south of the equator.

I wasn't going anywhere with it.  Just saw an article and said wow, coincidence.

The rest of your post seems to be some type of mild irritation that I mentioned the process of radiative warming.  I've posted occasional explanations of weather, climate, and astronomical processes here for 12 years, in this thread.  No doubt that sometimes people know it already - and sometimes, including this one - they don't.  You seem to want me to make some point that doesn't need making.

Other than that, it's what I do, and have done many years now, on this thread.

BTW there is a relationship between the sun's distance from the earth and weather, just not that type.  So the aphelion does have "anything to do" with weather.

[GreenspointTexas 9600]

Yea, i cant remember a wetter 3 month period than Houston has had since mid april

 

we havent had more than 3 straight days of sun without rain since spring break. Not bitching. Just laughing at the bitching

[bolverk 29671]

3 hours ago, phdhorn said:

The rest of your post seems to be some type of mild irritation that I mentioned the process of radiative warming. 

My apologies. I've got something going on right now and was just in a really bad mood last night. Sorry I got a little snippy.

[Orange&White 5523]

31 minutes ago, bolverk said:

My apologies. I've got something going on right now and was just in a really bad mood last night. Sorry I got a little snippy.

Please tell us that MFC Danger Girl has returned. Even if it is not the case, just tell us that anyway. And then repost the nudes. 

 

Thank you.

 

[Brisketexan 105098]

Just now, Orange&White said:

Please tell us that MFC Danger Girl has returned. Even if it is not the case, just tell us that anyway. And then repost the nudes. 

 

Thank you.

 

[South Austin 52477]

Much rain in Brentwood.

[AUS-97HORN 11757]

very much wet in 78757 

[hornian 5217]

14 hours ago, miguelito said:

Getting Biblical rains in NW SA.  7" in some areas this morning. 

 

I drove through that shit this morning. Thanks, dad, for not paying a credit card a decade ago and making me represent you in a JP court in Medina County. The $1,600 was really worth me almost dying on the drive!

[phdhorn 6224]

Update:

Low still sitting down in the Valley.  Will go W and fizzle next 24-36.  Today like yesterday, more sun than in past days, but w/daytime a very good chance of decent rain for portions of us.  Dies out by dark.

Next 3 days more sunny than rainy, but every day rain can happen during daytime heating.  By Saturday rain is slim.  Dry weekend, picks up a bit next week.

Temps will be a little warmer than forecast earlier this week if sun has a few longer stretches, but still under or at normal.  Nothing above mid-90's in the next 6 days (however I think that can easily be breached).  In any event, the great run of lower temps continues, and now will run into mid-July.

Please don't wake me up to the real summer.

[GreenspointTexas 9600]

RIP Indianola… again

[phdhorn 6224]

Bit of an update since the forecast has changed pretty quickly.

That low that was supposed to go west and die out (my post 2 above) not only kinda stood still, but as it did it strengthened by pulling up more moisture. It has pseudo-tropical characteristics but isn't and won't be a tropical system because it's over land - end of story, both technically and process-wise.

Anyway, the thing is now suprising us and going north as well as west.  The strong northerly winds around the east side of the high out in the western desert have diminished, and those kept pushing the low down from us.  But now it's coming W/NW and we are going to be well within the range of its primary rain area overnight into tomorrow lunch.

They've put up a flash flood warning for counties south of us (Hays, Comal, etc.) but I think they'll extend it to Travis.  However, this is still an E/SE thing.. that is, the farther SE in the ATX area you are, the more likely to see good rain.  I think the edge of this moves up to say around Lampasas around to like north of Georgetown, and west maybe to Blanco.  This will track NW and then fizzle somewhere by maybe Sat. afternoon.

So, forecast is:
Tonight into Fri lunch - rain, some periods of brief heavy tropical downpours.  Some spots around here could get 5-6 inches; most of us maybe 1-2.
Friday lunch - overnight - slow tapering off of the system, but still could get scattered heavy brief rains.
Sat-Sun - rain still in the picture, but more daytime heating.  The low will move in an unfavorable, but still reachable, position for us.

I have to go to a dear friend's funeral in D.C. from Sat-Mon so yer on yer own from there, but shouldn't be anything particularly eventful.

July returns - but just a bit - next week.  Drier, temps climb to mid-90's, a few days could get upper.  However, our glorious summer pattern is supposed to return after that.  <Altogether now>, "Thanks, cockblocking highs!"

[Storm the Field 5294]

Y'all wanna come take some of this Houston rain off our hands? Doesn't seem to ever stop lately.

On the bright side, my sprinklers have probably forgotten exactly what it is they're meant to do.

[GreenspointTexas 9600]

Real talk: has houston set any type of record over the past 8 weeks?

 

like most total rainfall over 8 weeks? Or consecutive number of days raining? Or most number of rain days in a month? Or   wettest july on record? Or wettest june?

[Wally Pryor 5261]

12 hours ago, phdhorn said:

I have to go to a dear friend's funeral in D.C. from Sat-Mon so yer on yer own from there, but shouldn't be anything particularly eventful.

July returns - but just a bit - next week.  Drier, temps climb to mid-90's, a few days could get upper.  However, our glorious summer pattern is supposed to return after that.  <Altogether now>, "Thanks, cockblocking highs!"

Sorry to hear of your loss. 

We've already won summer.   Halfway thru July and a high today of 78 or thereabouts.   Plus about 4 scattered weeks of rain over the last 6 or so, so yeah, we've won. 

[South Austin 52477]

I can't remember the last time I saw Austin this green in July.  I'll take the beating ahead of us in August and September after the last couple months we've had. 

[atomheartbevo 89656]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

I can't remember the last time I saw Austin this green in July.  I'll take the beating ahead of us in August and September after the last couple months we've had. 

It's noon on July 9th, and 78 degrees.

[Nueces River Rat 5538]

So far this week in my part of Corpus I've had eight inches of rain, with six of it coming yesterday morning in a five hour span.

With all this rain we had since May, we are track for the wettest year on record even if we get normal rain from here on out.

So not only do we have a chance of breaking some extreme cold records like we did in February or get close to it, we have a shot of breaking the all time rain record locally as well during the same calendar year.  At least we won't break the all time high record because of the fact it's almost Ireland green down here and that helps keep the soil temps down which contributes to extreme heat situations.  In fact I don't think we've even come close to challenging 100 since June 1 and who knows if we will the rest of this month

Scary thing from some of the blogs I read, the pattern is favorable for anything tropical in the Gulf to come this way.   So a flip of the pattern with a nice heavy duty H=pressure over the state would be welcomed to dry things out for the farmers and block the Gulf flow.  

[Zwylde 812]

4 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Real talk: has houston set any type of record over the past 8 weeks?

 

like most total rainfall over 8 weeks? Or consecutive number of days raining? Or most number of rain days in a month? Or   wettest july on record? Or wettest june?

It hasn't been a ton of heavy rain, just a shit load of light rain so I don't think any record inches are being produced.

[South Austin 52477]

Raining rain is continuing to rain in Brentwood.

[phdhorn 6224]

4 hours ago, Wally Pryor said:

Sorry to hear of your loss. 

We've already won summer.   Halfway thru July and a high today of 78 or thereabouts.   Plus about 4 scattered weeks of rain over the last 6 or so, so yeah, we've won. 

Thx for the sentiments. 5th wettest July so far in Austin history (1851), only 9 days in.

Of course the average total July rainfall is 0.62 in., So the faucet can shut off as easily as keep going.

But I think this is a larger summer pattern, not just luck. We'll see. Next week will be the first really warmer and drier week since mid-June so we'll see what happens after that.

[InkaUtexas 25911]

Thanks @phdhorn 

Sorry for your loss and we will toast you and your friend this evening. 

 

[phdhorn 6224]

24 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Thanks @phdhorn 

Sorry for your loss and we will toast you and your friend this evening. 

 

👍

You know, she would like that. Her name was Anne.

I'm doing a good bit of the music for her service. We met as high school juniors, and began to be very good friends, almost got romantic but stayed friends. Abdominal cancer. Has had a history but lived a normal life for 30 years since diagnosis. Aggressive lymphoma came on about October 2020. Chemo seemed to help, she seemed fine in March. By late June she was dead. Probably my closest friend so far to go. Beyond sad.

Edited July 9, 2021 by phdhorn

[miguelito 11262]

28 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

But I think this is a larger summer pattern, not just luck. We'll see. Next week will be the first really warmer and drier week since mid-June so we'll see what happens after that.

Is this part of a pattern that we are already familiar with, like EL NINO, la nina, or la chupacabra?

[phdhorn 6224]

4 minutes ago, miguelito said:

Is this part of a pattern that we are already familiar with, like EL NINO, la nina, or la chupacabra?

Maybe La Fat Vic Chiquita.

Definitely not La Nina although that's forecast to come this fall and winter; that would be dry hot summer.

More resembles El nino, but the ENSO numbers don't support it, they've been neutral all spring.

I think it has more to do with the North Atlantic and Greenland Oscillations. Highs sitting up there tend to be weaker in the summer but this summer they're stronger. Blocks storms from moving through the United States and forces the Jet down more toward us. Also keeps the Subtropical Jet a little stronger which is always what you want for rain in Texas.

But it's not any of those Spanish people.

Edited July 9, 2021 by phdhorn

[phdhorn 6224]

I should also say that last winter forecasters were predicting a good possibility of a La Nina here. And the numbers actually supported a weak one.

But then starting in May, it was almost the opposite, kind of an El Nino summer, with rain and cooler temperatures.

Officially they called an end to La Nina in May. I'm not sure it ever got going. And again it's forecast to come back this fall.

So you have El Nino numbers producing La Nina conditions.

Weather is hard.

[hookemATL 11719]

15 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

👍

You know, she would like that. Her name was Anne.

I'm doing a good bit of the music for her service. We met as high school juniors, and began to be very good friends, almost got romantic but stayed friends. Abdominal cancer. Has had a history but lived a normal life for 30 years since diagnosis. Aggressive lymphoma came on about October 2020. Chemo seemed to help, she seemed fine in March. By late June she was dead. Probably my closest friend so far to go. Beyond sad.

Peace and love to all. Sorry for your loss. 
 

I think I can handle the weekend forecast

[phdhorn 6224]

3 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

Peace and love to all. Sorry for your loss. 
 

I think I can handle the weekend forecast

Heh, loves me some Ollie.

You might be saying more of this:

[InkaUtexas 25911]

52 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

👍

You know, she would like that. Her name was Anne.

I'm doing a good bit of the music for her service. We met as high school juniors, and began to be very good friends, almost got romantic but stayed friends. Abdominal cancer. Has had a history but lived a normal life for 30 years since diagnosis. Aggressive lymphoma came on about October 2020. Chemo seemed to help, she seemed fine in March. By late June she was dead. Probably my closest friend so far to go. Beyond sad.

We will toast Anne and Deborah this evening. What was her favorite drink? 

[phdhorn 6224]

6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

We will toast Anne and Deborah this evening. What was her favorite drink? 

She was a wine drinker.  Any kind really.  (you can pretend your glass of whatever is wine).  Have fun!
(I'm out on the 5 a.m. flight, have to get up at 3 a.m.  Ugh!)

[InkaUtexas 25911]

2 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

She was a wine drinker.  Any kind really.  (you can pretend your glass of whatever is wine).  Have fun!
(I'm out on the 5 a.m. flight, have to get up at 3 a.m.  Ugh!)

I have a Chateau Pape Neuf we will open this evening. Fly safe, we need you.

[South Austin 52477]

2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

👍

You know, she would like that. Her name was Anne.

I'm doing a good bit of the music for her service. We met as high school juniors, and began to be very good friends, almost got romantic but stayed friends. Abdominal cancer. Has had a history but lived a normal life for 30 years since diagnosis. Aggressive lymphoma came on about October 2020. Chemo seemed to help, she seemed fine in March. By late June she was dead. Probably my closest friend so far to go. Beyond sad.

Sorry, man.  A good number of anonymous assholes will be drinking to Anne's life this evening.  Safe travels.

[phdhorn 6224]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Sorry, man.  A good number of anonymous assholes will be drinking to Anne's life this evening.  Safe travels.

Thanks.  She was an amazing gal - very outdoors, besides her career in public schools serving as a counselor for troubled kids, she also had a private practice that centered on them.  She also was an experienced guide in the Virginia Appalachians, again doing summer programs to help disadvantaged kids (both economically and medically) experience the beauty of the outdoors.  Her whole life was a service.  Mom of 3, divorced for 10 years but in a great relationship the last 3.

I will miss her very, very much.

[jimmyjazz 45903]

5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

I have a Chateau Pape Neuf we will open this evening. Fly safe, we need you.

First really good glass of wine I ever had was a Chateau Pape de Neuf.  Ruth's Chris steakhouse on 6th, a friend's wealthy father took about 8 of us out on the town, and he ordered a few bottles at something $150 a pop (1990-esque).  That was some damn fine wine.

Tonight, I will raise my Shiner Bock to doc's friend Anne and wish her godspeed on her next adventure.

[utee94 15816]

Are y'all just trolling?  It's:

Châteauneuf-du-Pape

 

[Knoxtnhorn 5974]

8 hours ago, Nueces River Rat said:

So far this week in my part of Corpus I've had eight inches of rain, with six of it coming yesterday morning in a five hour span.

With all this rain we had since May, we are track for the wettest year on record even if we get normal rain from here on out.

So not only do we have a chance of breaking some extreme cold records like we did in February or get close to it, we have a shot of breaking the all time rain record locally as well during the same calendar year.  At least we won't break the all time high record because of the fact it's almost Ireland green down here and that helps keep the soil temps down which contributes to extreme heat situations.  In fact I don't think we've even come close to challenging 100 since June 1 and who knows if we will the rest of this month

Scary thing from some of the blogs I read, the pattern is favorable for anything tropical in the Gulf to come this way.   So a flip of the pattern with a nice heavy duty H=pressure over the state would be welcomed to dry things out for the farmers and block the Gulf flow.  

Got lucky.  Family and I did a condo on Padre last week.  Every time I've looked at the radar this week it's been raining in Corpus/N. Padre.

[bolverk 29671]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Are y'all just trolling?  It's:

Châteauneuf-du-Pape

 

I didn't want to get all pretentious and shit but THANK YOU! 

Chateauneuf = Newcastle

[miguelito 11262]