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2021 Rain Thread

South Austin

By South Austin
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
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Update:
Things have worked out so the cooler/rain pattern will stay with us longer, about 48 hours.  Actually rain chances go down a bit thru Tuesday and then pick back up esp. on Wed.  Then go down a bit Thurs, but still there.  Then the dry-out starts happening Friday.

Another 5 days of < normal temps (low 90's) and no 100's.  Un-freakin-believable.

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Post Oak

Post Oak 20213

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Posted
9 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Update:
Things have worked out so the cooler/rain pattern will stay with us longer, about 48 hours.  Actually rain chances go down a bit thru Tuesday and then pick back up esp. on Wed.  Then go down a bit Thurs, but still there.  Then the dry-out starts happening Friday.

Another 5 days of < normal temps (low 90's) and no 100's.  Un-freakin-believable.

Awesome.

I can't imagine the hell we are going to have to pay next summer.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Yup.

Doesn't mean it won't get sorta warm today thru Thurs until whatever diurnal rains develop, develop.  Look for best chances of rain as usual after sun gets going, meaning mid-late afternoon or early evening.  

Not everyone will get it next 4 days, but enough to count.

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Post Oak

Post Oak 20213

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10 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Yup.

Doesn't mean it won't get sorta warm today thru Thurs until whatever diurnal rains develop, develop.  Look for best chances of rain as usual after sun gets going, meaning mid-late afternoon or early evening.  

Not everyone will get it next 4 days, but enough to count.

One thing you've written that I thought was interesting, is that at some point in the year, the we are just too far away from the sun to get hot weather.  

Is there a particular time for that?  Like the middle of October for example?

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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15 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

One thing you've written that I thought was interesting, is that at some point in the year, the we are just too far away from the sun to get hot weather.  

Is there a particular time for that?  Like the middle of October for example?

Well, last avg. day of 100° in Austin is about Oct. 3.  (And it's not distance from the sun, we're usually actually closer in our sorta elliptical orbit to the sun in the winter - it's angle of the sunlight hitting the tilted 23° hemisphere, which is more acute of course in summer months.  Of course that peaks June 21 but getting "back down" to the autumn equinox, N. Hemisphere builds up heat every day from June thru Sept and that's why it's much hotter in Aug. than May, although angle of light hitting earth is identical).

As we know, September can drift along pretty hot - but we can also get "that" front that once and for all kicks out the hot weather from Austin.  However that usually arrives 2nd or 3rd week of Oct.

Obviously we're not out of hell yet - September can have the entire month of 100's (like 2018 - all but 2 days > 100°, but that was after a brutal late July and August.

But the likelihood of having 100 degree days starts getting low esp. after mid-Sept - on average.

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South Austin

South Austin 52491

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Somewhat related weather bitching – I can’t believe the Longhorns’ home opener is a 3:00 p.m. kickoff. It’s been a night game for quite a while, and even then that first quarter or so can be brutal when you’re sitting on the east side before the sun goes down behind the west side upper deck. I’m going to have to drink a few extra Coors Lights to stay hydrated.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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7 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Somewhat related weather bitching – I can’t believe the Longhorns’ home opener is a 3:00 p.m. kickoff. It’s been a night game for quite a while, and even then that first quarter or so can be brutal when you’re sitting on the east side before the sun goes down behind the west side upper deck. I’m going to have to drink a few extra Coors Lights to stay hydrated.

If it makes you feel any better, it's not 3:00p, it's 3:37p-CDT.  So you know?...an even hotter part of the day.  It was a television call, not UT.  Even 6:00p home openers to me are fucking miserable.  11:00a or 7:30p is my preference in September but apparently nobody asks me.  It'll be a nice time to be in that new SEZ I suppose (not where my seats are).  I'm assuming by 3:30p, that whole section should be shaded by the wall/scoreboard/suites.........no?  

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Nueces River Rat

Nueces River Rat 5538

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20 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Somewhat related weather bitching – I can’t believe the Longhorns’ home opener is a 3:00 p.m. kickoff. It’s been a night game for quite a while, and even then that first quarter or so can be brutal when you’re sitting on the east side before the sun goes down behind the west side upper deck. I’m going to have to drink a few extra Coors Lights to stay hydrated.

And it's on FOX and what are the chances we get their B team for the broadcast which means three hours of Tim Brando.  That alone would make trade Brando for sitting in the direct sun for three plus hours.  

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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They're dumb.  But they can't move it.  Penn State/Wisconsin is 11:00a on our channel.  And then 7:30p on our channel is LSU/UCLA.  Only options are to move it to FSN which I assume is a financial impossibility due to the tier agreement.  Second, and what we should actually hope for, is to switch slots with Penn State/Wisconsin.  Weather won't be as much of  factor up there.  11:00a is sunny, I get it but it's nowhere near the swamp-ass factory that a 3:30p game would be.  Game should be wrapped up by 2:00p and people can head to the A/C.  Tailgating from 1:00-3:30p, sun and extreme midday heat from 3:30-6:00p, and maybe a modicum of shade for everyone in the fourth quarter just sounds miserable, bordering on dangerous.  It's been a mild summer, and we give thanks, but early September midday just is fucking awful.  

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South Austin

South Austin 52491

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23 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

And it's on FOX and what are the chances we get their B team for the broadcast which means three hours of Tim Brando.  That alone would make trade Brando for sitting in the direct sun for three plus hours.  

It is indeed Brando calling the game. Glad I’ll be watching in DKR.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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12 minutes ago, Lobo said:

They're dumb.  But they can't move it.  Penn State/Wisconsin is 11:00a on our channel.  And then 7:30p on our channel is LSU/UCLA.  Only options are to move it to FSN which I assume is a financial impossibility due to the tier agreement.  Second, and what we should actually hope for, is to switch slots with Penn State/Wisconsin.  Weather won't be as much of  factor up there.  11:00a is sunny, I get it but it's nowhere near the swamp-ass factory that a 3:30p game would be.  Game should be wrapped up by 2:00p and people can head to the A/C.  Tailgating from 1:00-3:30p, sun and extreme midday heat from 3:30-6:00p, and maybe a modicum of shade for everyone in the fourth quarter just sounds miserable, bordering on dangerous.  It's been a mild summer, and we give thanks, but early September midday just is fucking awful.  

They can, and have, flipped games right up into game day.  But I agree this won't probably be moved.

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utee94

utee94 15821

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11 AM is pretty much just as bad.  The 1999 Stanford game that sent a record number of people to the in-stadium infirmary, and then to the hospital, for heat exhaustion, was an 11 AM game.

 

I guess someone might consider it a positive to an 11 AM game, that it leaves less time for tailgating, so people won't be (quite) as drunk/dehydrated as they would for an afternoon game.

 

I mean, I don't really consider less tailgating to be a positive, but the hospitals probably would.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89659

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16 hours ago, Xian said:

Yeah. That’s a major fuckup.  No way that should be happening with this amount of rainfall 

16 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Damn. Has to be from Waller creek. This plus the Capitol flooding. This was an unusual rain event.

Wonder if there was some damage from February that wasn't readily apparent, and this pushed it over the edge, so to speak.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Lemme Update this a bit:

Models have the bulk of this next rain event beginning late afternoon, mostly W and N of ATX - but as we saw a few days ago, if something ramps up in the day, it can be outside of this "target area".  Chances are good it could for immediate area.  It happened like that last week.  Bulk of rain is for later today into tomorrow afternoon.  If it rains today over you, chances are that it won't rain much tomorrow (stabilized atmosphere).  If it doesn't, diurnal rain chances better tomorrow.

My guess is that the rain will be pinpoint and not widespread.  But in any event, lots of clouds and temps staying in low 90's.

Stuff begins to move out Thursday, but temps stay below normal - mostly mid-90's.  No 100's in sight for at least the next 5-6 days.  That takes us into the last week of August.  One day at a time...

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utee94

utee94 15821

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13 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Lemme Update this a bit:

My guess is that the rain will be pinpoint and not widespread.  But in any event, lots of clouds and temps staying in low 90's.

Stuff begins to move out Thursday, but temps stay below normal - mostly mid-90's.  No 100's in sight for at least the next 5-6 days.  That takes us into the last week of August.  One day at a time...

Translation: 3"-4" in Bee Cave, the rest of us are doomed.

 

 

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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
Posted (edited)

There could be some tropical weather towards the end of the month for Texas.  Here is an experimental model (what, like the model wants to try anal?) from the CPC that shows a chance of heavy precipitation in about 10 days.  The GFS and Euro have both picked up on it but it's a long way out. 

 

precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

 

There is also this:

file.php?id=17811&mode=view

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Hate

Hate 20108

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In San Angelo this morning watching local news, a video from yesterday of Water pouring over Lake Brownwood spillway....guessing it will arrive Lake Buchanan soon.

Yep. It’s starting to make its way down now.

2b58118287204e5fc3a7874c3c580016.png

The lake is at 1016.44 right now so it will be interesting to see how big of a bump it gets from this.
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Micro-peen Update:
- Hot, sunny thru Wed.
- Slim chances of rain beginning Thurs.; they could go up, but probably won't much.
- However, the big high is once again moving west and at least temps will moderate back into mid-90's Thur-Sat if not longer.

More if rain/temps change from this later in the week.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Bit of an update (cross-posted in Furnace thread):

The expected "post-hurricane heat wave" effect from Ida really isn't gonna happen, or at least all that much.  You'll notice today in ATX that, far from feeling hot and dry under sinking, heated air, we're more like this atypical summer - a bit humid with showers popping up all around.  But wait - doesn't the west side of a hurricane draw dry air and heats it up?  Yeah, but.. we have some asterisks here:

- First, Ida was powerful but not all that big.  It was fairly far away from us on its western edge (at least 30 miles into Louisiana).  So its effect is a little less.
- Second, we have the remnants of a Pacific storm (Nora) that's been raining itself out over SE Mexico.  Even if it's not directly moving toward us, enough moisture and clouds from it are drifting our way to put a translucent blanket over us and keeping us a little cooler.  

Doesn't mean temps can't hit 100° (although they almost certainly won't today, maybe tomorrow).  But rain chances are at least notable (20-30%) and a good portion of the area's gotten rain today.  Highs today should peak out about 95°.  Tomorrow would be the best chance for 100°, but I'm not sure it'll get there.  Then temps go down to about mid-90's the rest of the week.  Because summer 2021 gonna summer 2021.

Enjoy the rain the next 2 days if you get lucky.

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