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2021 Rain Thread

South Austin

By South Austin
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Last night outside Lubbock.

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My 13yo dog kept trying to shove past me to go outside.  We had to have a conversation: Me: ”Girl don’t go out there, it’s dangerous” Bindi: ”I must investigate this disturbance” M-”The

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Here is something to watch for next week.  Some weather models are seeing a "tropical system" in the NW Gulf next week.  Most of the models don't really develop it into anything more than a rain maker, but these systems can make a lot of rain.  Here is the current 7 day QPF guide.  It will be interesting to see where these number head over the next week.

p168i.gif?1631046410

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36 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why do we even bother with the American model?  Hasn't it been shown the Euros know what's up and we are a bunch of nincompoops?

Not at all.  They both have their strengths and weaknesses.  The Euro was changed/updated a couple of years ago and has been really bad at tropical systems ever since.  The GFS has been way more accurate since then for tropical stuff.  Those model runs are for a 10 day period, so a lot can happen between now and then.  There are some models that have a weak tropical system coming into the South/Central Texas Coast and kind of stalling.  We will have to see.  I wouldn't bet on any of this until Friday or Saturday.

 

14 minutes ago, texasdago said:

So I'm seeing 25" on that map.  Riiight.

That's why I posted the GFS as well.  It does have a 12"+ rain accumulation for the Central Texas Coast, so at least both models seem to indicate that there will be a lot of rain somewhere in Texas next week. 

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1 hour ago, miguelito said:

 

I always thought the Riverwalk was a really under-appreciated marvel of engineering.  Some parts of it are still really quiet and cool.  But the majority of it is tourists overpaying for novelty drinks whilst overlooking standing, polluted water.  

Sign me up for that rainfall next week, looks like it'll be kind to the lake water table as well.  We are thankful to Mother Nature for a mild and wet summer, but this last month has been a shit-beating and I'm ready to be done with it.  With Covid limiting our activities, it was nice to have a great May-July to do stuff outside.  Really hoping for a pleasant ACL season as well.

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Guest Lobo

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Anybody know where the rain for this week is at?  95 everyday with the heat index and all the chances seem to be fizzling out.  Shittily, our best chance for this week is now Saturday night (Longhorn game) 

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phdhorn

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28 minutes ago, boknowstecmo said:

Rain chances were based on Nicholas. We will get nothing and like it. 

True, but it's now supposed to stall and come back west, pretty much heading for ATX as a weak system (just a rainy day) later this week.  Then it'll move NW and just die.

Yeah, right, I know, sure.  But at least it's a shot.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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A la hornian's post, yep, looks like, no really, mid-end of this week is going to be a decent rain event.

2 lows coming, the first not so big, the second potent.  The second low will slide down and get cut off from the jet and move slowly.

Cutoff lows in the spring and fall can sometimes be huge (flooding) rainmakers.   In our case, could happen here/there, not everywhere.  But models are showing 3"-6" in spots.  Yeah, models, whatever.  But when they start agreeing w/in enough range, things get more certain.

Expect a little rain Wed., then most of it with the 2nd low coming in and slowing down on Thurs. especially, and into Friday.  Not sure when it'll move out, probably by Friday evening.

Hopefully some good rain for everyone, with an eye on training/flooding in limited areas.  We'll see.

** Usually I try to post here only when things are significant enough and beyond the status quo (i.e. 100° forecasts up through about now are not beyond the status quo, nor is 20% chance of rain on Derka or whatever.  So this is one of those "yep could be a pretty decent spell of rain" posts.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26110

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35 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Thanks as always.  Any educated guesses on where the heavier stuff will hit?  Up the lake water table?  SW of town?  Right over Austin?  Just in general.  Asking for a friend.

I want to reiterate this. I trust this site more than the weather weasels out there. PHD can have all the rain in Bee Caves as our thanks. 

I appreciate it gentlemen. 

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phdhorn

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40 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Thanks as always.  Any educated guesses on where the heavier stuff will hit?  Up the lake water table?  SW of town?  Right over Austin?  Just in general.  Asking for a friend.

Nope but models are: 1) predicting widespread rain, and 2) predicting rather evenly the distribution.  This means generally that everyone gets rain.  But nope, we're not close to pinpointing stuff like that wi/in 200 miles, too many factors.  However once it's seen where this low actually sets up, at least we can get closer (say within 250 miles).  That'll happen about Wed.

Here's the Euro model:
Euro-rain.jpg?resize=876,490

.. and the Amero model:
model.png.38c8b56803ac8a1e1d70872f4ae4c336.png

Of course this will look a lot different by Tuesday.  Maybe the best way on this is not to overthink or think this will happen, but more the pessimist, hey at least there's a chance of it right now.  But I think the setup coming has a history of being a rainmaker.  The only other caution I'll have is that while at times these can fizzle to "nevermind", they can ramp up to be serious situations.  My guess is basically down the middle.  Rainy days with periods of heavy rain but only scattered minor flooding.  At least here on Sunday at this point.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15356

Posted
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6 hours ago, Lobo said:

Thanks as always.  Any educated guesses on where the heavier stuff will hit?  Up the lake water table?  SW of town?  Right over Austin?  Just in general.  Asking for a friend.

Heavier stuff is either already past or won’t hit til later.   I’d keep playing. 

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Guest Lobo

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Yeah, this is getting eerie as far as lack of rainfall.  I really hope this midweek rainfall deal pans out.  October long-term isn't looking that great either.  

Tuesday is supposed to be 95 with 100 heat index and no rainfall.  That can't be good.  I usually can shut off the sprinklers and do no hand watering by this time every year and let October run its course and the grass starts to go dormant by mid-November.  But nope.  As long as we can make it to the end of waste-water averaging, I guess it's okay.  But the rest of nature that's not a sprinkler system could probably use some water. 

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phdhorn

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18 minutes ago, utee94 said:

This one looks like a Forcefield special to me.  3+" forecast as of today, by Wednesday it'll be 2", and by Saturday morning the only place within 15 miles of downtown Austin to receive any rain at all, will of course be, Bee Cave. ;)

That last rain event like 2 weeks ago, there was one tiny red blob in pretty much a 50-mile sweep, and it was... you guessed it... right over my house.  Got 1.45" when the rest of you were sucking dust.  I wish I could've did a screenshot of it.

Out here, the streams are gushing, the 4 ft. long trout are jumping, and the rainforest is doing just fine.

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