2021 Rain Thread

[Hate 20136]

12 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Ever had the lightning strike so close, that you couldn't hear the initial thunderclap because the sound wave generated outside of the sphere of space that you shared with the lightning? That happened to us last night. 

We had a storm like that a few weeks ago.  There had to have been 1-20 of them within  my neighborhood.  They shook the windows they were so close.  I didn't even want to go on the porch which s something I usually love to do during storms. 

[Orange&White 5528]

36 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Update:

Not much change to the forecast, Round 1 did its job.

The only change from my post yesterday is that the systems are moving slower than at first, so the 2nd system will move in late Thursday, not late tonight.

Today rain still lingers, but the sun should actually come out afternoon.
Thursday, not today, is our dry "break" day.
Friday/Saturday are the big rain days.  Could see 2-3 more inches easily widespread.

ACL looking more and more like a humid, smelly, muddy mess - if they don't axe some of each day entirely.

What about MotoGP at COTA on Sunday? Good to race or nahh?

[phdhorn 6224]

1 minute ago, Orange&White said:

What about MotoGP at COTA on Sunday? Good to race or nahh?

Doesn't that usually go off about mid-afternoon?  I think it'll be okay by then, just depends on the speed of the system moving out. 

[utee94 15852]

On 9/27/2021 at 9:30 AM, utee94 said:

This one looks like a Forcefield special to me.  3+" forecast as of today, by Wednesday it'll be 2", and by Saturday morning the only place within 15 miles of downtown Austin to receive any rain at all, will of course be, Bee Cave.

 

 

It's possible... that I was wrong.

3.6" at my house in NW Travis.

[phdhorn 6224]

1 minute ago, utee94 said:

It's possible... that I was wrong.

3.6" at my house in NW Travis.

We had a healthy rain here, but not like much of ATX.  Got about 1.25".  Our low water crossing wasn't even running high (just puddles).

[atomheartbevo 89778]

1 hour ago, NorthLoop said:

Ever had the lightning strike so close, that you couldn't hear the initial thunderclap because the sound wave generated outside of the sphere of space that you shared with the lightning? That happened to us last night. 

I was out for a job this morning along Shoal Creek, and saw a tree around 38th Street that appeared to have been hit by lightning.  If so, I think it was one of the ones we heard last night.

[utee94 15852]

2 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

We had a healthy rain here, but not like much of ATX.  Got about 1.25".  Our low water crossing wasn't even running high (just puddles).

FallenLawnChair.jpg

Never forget.

 

[BonzoMontreaux 1071]

~3.75 in Kyle

[1978horn 895]

Multiple neighbors in my area East of Dripping Springs are reporting 5-6 inches from their home gauges.

[South Austin 52568]

2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

ACL looking more and more like a humid, smelly, muddy mess - if they don't axe some of each day entirely.

Just my fucking luck.

[Trey3216 15352]

3 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Ever had the lightning strike so close, that you couldn't hear the initial thunderclap because the sound wave generated outside of the sphere of space that you shared with the lightning? That happened to us last night. 

Yep.  That's when you can feel the actual electricity from the bolt.  Happened to me last year on the first day of the Snowmageddon.  

[texasdago 7577]

1.75" woot woot

Picked a good year to skip ACL and MotoGP.

[Blotto 23568]

3 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Ever had the lightning strike so close, that you couldn't hear the initial thunderclap because the sound wave generated outside of the sphere of space that you shared with the lightning? That happened to us last night. 

About a month ago same shit happened to me. Never heard thunder but just a bright flash with a simultaneous cracking noise. All of my shit that was on surge protectors was fine,but my cable modem and wireless router were fried. Replaced both of those and still no internet. Service guy came out and traced the issue to some of the wiring and a splitter in my attic. Guessing lightening hit the closest spectrum cable pole. 

[HenryJames 66160]

3 hours ago, BonzoMontreaux said:

~3.75 in Kyle

No homo?

[Willfully Horn 8046]

First round of rain dumped four inches. (I put out a gauge). Between 1:30 and 2:30AM, it poured again.. Those rain totals are misleading.

[Orange&White 5528]

I am currently in Georgetown and it is clear blue skies and about 80 degrees.

As such, I just changed my tee time for 4:00 tomorrow to 4:08 this afternoon.

Did I just fuck myself?

[utee94 15852]

18 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I am currently in Georgetown and it is clear blue skies and about 80 degrees.

As such, I just changed my tee time for 4:00 tomorrow to 4:08 this afternoon.

Did I just fuck myself?

[Guest Lobo]

Up until like 4 years ago, I thought he was shouting "RAMPARTS!" like the national anthem.  Turns out only complete fucking idiots like myself can't use the word ramparts correctly.  

As for ACL.  Some good news for you revelers, was with the co-producer of the event (#4 guy at C3 Presents) for coffee and lies.  As of today, they ain't canceling shit.  going full bore.  No delays, just discomfort.  They just had to cancel the Post Malone festival in Arlington for Halloween weekend and they gotta make up the money somehow.  ACL full steam ahead.  I'm going second weekend though, gonna be too much of a clusterfuck this weekend between checking vacc cards/neg tests and the rain.  But my lawn already looks like it got a handjob from MILF Nature. 

Edited September 29, 2021 by Lobo

[phdhorn 6224]

39 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I am currently in Georgetown and it is clear blue skies and about 80 degrees.

As such, I just changed my tee time for 4:00 tomorrow to 4:08 this afternoon.

Did I just fuck myself?

I doubt it. Rain is gone till at least tomorrow afternoon.

I've been struck by lightning, hasn't everyone?

[SquishMitten 10425]

15 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

Creek behind the house was running at 2 cfs at last reading a couple hours ago. Gonna guess it’s close to 100 right now and the rain is still slowly increasing. Lookin like a good day to kayak tomorrow!

Only got up to 70cfs. Sadly not enough to kayak. But a solid 2.5" in the gauge. I'll take that any day!

[Felix 607]

3.29 inches in Manchaca on the Ambient weather station.

[SquishMitten 10425]

On 9/26/2021 at 7:12 PM, Biff Tannen said:

So not Roy Kent then?

Also, ACL gonna be a muddy mess. 

 

On 9/27/2021 at 5:37 PM, SquishMitten said:

At least there won’t be idiots doing slip-n-slide in dillo dirt

 

18 hours ago, ztejas said:

Looks like we'll get it nice and muddy right before ACL.

 

18 hours ago, Anastasis said:

That is not mud. 

 

17 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

15 hours ago, Ewreck10 said:

I’ll never forget the year they put Dillo Dirt in Zilker right before ACL years ago only to have it rain right before and during the festival. Watching drunk/high patrons running and sliding head first in that sludge was pretty disgusting. 
 

 

 

13 hours ago, ztejas said:

Yes. That would be the reference. 

C'mon people. The statement was made, then the reference to frolicking in poop was made. Then the comment was made again, and the reference about scat play was made 3 more times. Get yer shit together!

[SquishMitten 10425]

5 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Ever had the lightning strike so close, that you couldn't hear the initial thunderclap because the sound wave generated outside of the sphere of space that you shared with the lightning? That happened to us last night. 

Couple weeks ago. Standing in the garage with the door open, and I think it must have struck either in my backyard or my neighbors. Didn't hear it as much as I felt it. Like a shockwave through my veins and felt static electricity all around/through me. Did not like that feeling. Quickly shut the door and considered my garage-tasks done for the day!

[Biff Tannen 45712]

37 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

C'mon people. The statement was made, then the reference to frolicking in poop was made. Then the comment was made again, and the reference about scat play was made 3 more times. Get yer shit together!

ISWYDT

[Brisketexan 105275]

12 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

ISWYDT

[Ewreck10 288]

6 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

C'mon people. The statement was made, then the reference to frolicking in poop was made. Then the comment was made again, and the reference about scat play was made 3 more times. Get yer shit together!

Sorry man, that shit sticks with you. 

[Orange&White 5528]

ok @phdhorn...quit being lazy and give us a reset/update.

Wunderground tells me less than an inch is going to fall between now and Sunday. NWS is more bullish on potential floods.

What is the REAL answer?

[Guest Lobo]

Today is weird.  Humid as fuck, overcast.  Already ball sweat hot.  Looks like everybody agrees rain starts late tonight.  But now we're only talking 1-2 inches over the whole weekend, stopping completely by Sunday morning?  ACL assembly crews reporting the mud from yesterday is a pain in the ass to sludge through but that falling rain is no longer their worry.  Which weekend should we attend?  

[TPCJ007 48]

Which weekend should we attend?  

The third weekend is always the best.

[South Austin 52568]

5 minutes ago, TPCJ007 said:

Which weekend should we attend?  

The third weekend is always the best.

Wrong.  Asleep at the Wheel isn't in the lineup for the Third Weekend.

[South Austin 52568]

My weather app still indicates heavy rains tomorrow. 

[Brisketexan 105275]

29 minutes ago, South Austin said:

My weather app still indicates heavy rains tomorrow. 

Frankie has an app?

[Guest Lobo]

42 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Wrong.  Asleep at the Wheel isn't in the lineup for the Third Weekend.

No, but Bob Schneider and Blue October will be opening for Spoon that third weekend.  It's a bye week for UT so expect larger crowds.  

[phdhorn 6224]

Update:

I'm lazy, of course.  I mean, who isn't - or shouldn't be?  Hard work is useless and takes years off your life.

Otherwise, models/forecasters are drawing sides.  One is the "gonna rain all the same" and the other is "maybe not so much."  Yeah, shockingly rare, I know.

Nevertheless, they're all betting on whether the air is gonna be washed out by tonight's almost-certain repeat of overnight Tuesday's weather, in both intensity and amounts, and therefore give us a stable (little/no rain) Friday for the most part.  Models are sputtering.   Of course will we get another beatdown tonight is yet another question.  The "it's gonna still rain a lot" side is still winning, but it's no longer a landslide.  NWS is still kind of sticking to their guns of more than less rain, but then they put this in at the 10 a.m. forecast:

The forecast for Friday is highly dependent on what occurs tonight.
Should the storms exit our area to the east, then much less shower
and thunderstorm activity would be expected. However, expect the
showers and thunderstorms will decrease late tonight into early
Friday.

This confusing statement is saying what I said... "If showers move out [quickly and rain is brief] ← (they should have used this phrase!!) tonight, then the atmosphere won't be worked over tomorrow as much, and rain is more probable.  Nevertheless, expect showers to move out eventually."  Talk about CYA, must've taken hours of intense study to come up with that.  So not much help there.  But still, give'em a break.

So the best CYA answer is "we really won't know until we see the radar starting Fri. morning."

My "open to the public" answer is that I'm leaning towards more than less rain on Friday.  Not a total washout, but 1) there's LOTSA moisture coming up from the Gulf; 2) we have a frontal boundary near us; 3) the Jet is moving almost right above us, and 4) Good Ol' Mr. Sunshine will do his diurnal thing tomorrow and heat up the atmosphere.

So I'd expect less rain until maybe later after lunch, then periods of showers.  I would be surprised if ACL went through Friday dry.

Saturday still looks pretty wet, hasn't changed  - yet anyway.

My "premium insider lock it in answer" is reserved for subscribers.  $149.95 per month.  But you also get my thoughts on UT football.  PayPal or Afghanis (that is really the name of their currency, too)  accepted.

Back later because I'm sure this will change and I'll be wrong somewhere.  But I'm happy widdit right now.

[miguelito 11291]

It's going to rain until it stops raining.

[Brisketexan 105275]

1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

1) there's LOTSA moisture coming up from the Gulf;

This reminds me -- I have a pitch for a porn film called "Gulf Moisture."  I haven't really sketched out a plot or anything, I just know that all of the talent will wear white shrimper boots for the entire film.  And there will be an abnormally high amount of cussing.  If you would like a full prospectus so that you can obtain equity in this can't-miss venture, send me a DM for a link to where you can submit your $9.95.

[Guest Lobo]

Do not click on the outtakes/behind the scene link entitled, "De-Veining"  

[ROFL BOX 6649]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

This reminds me -- I have a pitch for a porn film called "Gulf Moisture."

[South Austin 52568]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

This reminds me -- I have a pitch for a porn film called "Gulf Moisture."  I haven't really sketched out a plot or anything, I just know that all of the talent will wear white shrimper boots for the entire film.  And there will be an abnormally high amount of cussing.  If you would like a full prospectus so that you can obtain equity in this can't-miss venture, send me a DM for a link to where you can submit your $9.95.

If you need a cinematographer, I’m your man. I have no formal training, but I know how to hold my iPhone the right way when filming.

[F250 28814]

18 minutes ago, South Austin said:

If you need a cinematographer, I’m your man. I have no formal training, but I know how to hold my iPhone the right way when filming.

What he didn't tell you is that Gulf Moisture will be using local talent rounded up from the Corpus area starring Virginia Slim a 56 year old female bar fly from Flour Bluff.

 

[Hate 20136]

If you need a cinematographer, I’m your man. I have no formal training, but I know how to hold my iPhone the right way when filming.

South Austin=Case McCoy???

[South Austin 52568]

1 minute ago, Hate said:

South Austin=Case McCoy???

Damn right. I beat OU and aggy. You all owe me beers.

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

Damn right. I beat OU and aggy. You all owe me beers.

Not to mention you beat Jordan Hicks to the vulva.  Considering his 40, ain't easy to do.  Much respect.  

And that lonely red light you see in the corner, madam.  Will either be my record indicator or my cigarette tip.  Dealer's choice.

[Brisketexan 105275]

16 minutes ago, F250 said:

What he didn't tell you is that Gulf Moisture will be using local talent rounded up from the Corpus area starring Virginia Slim a 56 year old female bar fly from Flour Bluff.

 

[Native Horn 3512]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

This reminds me -- I have a pitch for a porn film called "Gulf Moisture."  I haven't really sketched out a plot or anything, I just know that all of the talent will wear white shrimper boots for the entire film.  And there will be an abnormally high amount of cussing.  If you would like a full prospectus so that you can obtain equity in this can't-miss venture, send me a DM for a link to where you can submit your $9.95.

First, you make a roux....

[SquishMitten 10425]

It's going to rain until it stops raining.

But before that, it’s not going to rain at all until it starts.

[smwhorn 483]

Just now, SquishMitten said:

But before that, it’s not going to rain at all until it starts.

Are you like a weatherman or something like that?

[Guest Lobo]

I'm the Meat in South Austin's Meateorlogist.  

[Blotto 23568]

1 hour ago, F250 said:

What he didn't tell you is that Gulf Moisture will be using local talent rounded up from the Corpus area starring Virginia Slim a 56 year old female bar fly from Flour Bluff.

 

 

[Guest Lobo]

I'm wet,  and you're white, and that's Albright.