2021 Rain Thread

[Biff Tannen 45,683]

9 hours ago, Lobo said:

No, but Bob Schneider and Blue October will be opening for Spoon that third weekend.  It's a bye week for UT so expect larger crowds.  

With a secret opening set by Recover.  Not really, but that would be awesome.

[Biff Tannen 45,683]

4 hours ago, Blotto said:

 

God damn that's horrifying.

[SquishMitten 10,406]

Are you like a weatherman or something like that?

Nah. But the only difference is that I don’t know the industry lingo

[phdhorn 6,224]

Brief update:

Seems like the focus of the heaviest rain has shifted a bit NW of us overnight, and radar is showing that.  Of course storms could easily build/move SE to ATX and drop a lot of rain and some potent storms, but chances are down to about 40%.   If this happens, then my post above referring to a less stable atmosphere on Friday will win out (as I was sort of leaning).  If true, then Friday will start fairly dry, maybe even some sun, and it could last well into midday.  However, if that happens, I'd say it's almost a sure thing that sun heating will cause storms to build after about 4-5.  ACL seems to be okay for the first half, then touch/go for the evening.  Not sure what they'd do if lightning happens, but it might.

If we do end up getting soaked tonight, I still think Friday will have rain, but not as much, and not "frontal squall" potent thunderstorms.

Back tomorrow morning to check the radar.

[Biff Tannen 45,683]

So right around the time the bigger acts start to go on. 
 

[boknowstecmo 216]

This rain line is moving slower than Franklin's on a Saturday.

[Chet Steadman 940]

Rain.  

Lots of it. 

[South Austin 52,499]

This rain can eat a dick.

[texasdago 7,573]

Rain gauge showed another 2.75" overnight.  That's 5" inches over the last two rounds.  Good for the Hill Country/Austin... bad for outdoor activities but, well, we had a nice September run.

[phdhorn 6,224]

Another brief update:

Good news is that the rain did come in of course.  Pretty much everyone got it in ATX region, and almost equally, and a lot.  For ACL this means that the atmosphere has been kind of stabilized, so rain is probably not going to happen for at least the first few hours of it.

The maybe bad news is that if it remains sunny, no question with all this moisture and the big low still in the 4 corners that it'll spin another trigger this afternoon and with the sun doing its job, I'd expect a flareup at the typical time (later afternoon or evening).  Key is watch the radar for stuff to start forming west, although with this low it could "blow up" nearer to us.  I'd say chances of another soaking are about 60% right now.  But I think daytime ACL at least will be okay.  We'll see, be back if anything of interest happens.
 

[Skipper 6,135]

Early forecasts were rain all week in Dallas which we need.  Instead we maybe got a brief shower over night but that's it.  Supposed to get some tonight/tomorrow AM but I'll believe it when I see it after the models have missed all week.  Latest I saw is that it should clear up in Ft. Worth by kickoff which is good.

[Hate 20,108]

This week ought to put an end to a lot of the "abnormally dry" areas on this map.  This was as of 9/30/21.

[bolverk 29,672]

20 minutes ago, Hate said:

This week ought to put an end to a lot of the "abnormally dry" areas on this map.  This was as of 9/30/21.

Looks like a minor but highly concentrated 6-inch rain bomb fell right over the creek east of Brady which flows into the San Saba and then Colorado (obviously). Good for your place out at Lake Buchanan.

[Hate 20,108]

Yeah, I’ve been watching the LCRA Hydromet page the last few days. I think the ground was a little too dry for as much runoff as might be expected ordinarily with that kind of rainfall. The San Saba is up a little bit, but not a whole lot. I’m not going to complain as the lake will rise a little bit out this.

[texasdago 7,573]

Slaughter Creek churning and burning right now

[Hate 20,108]

I sure do like seeing that +2K number on the Colorado.

[ztejas 43,425]

2 hours ago, Hate said:

This week ought to put an end to a lot of the "abnormally dry" areas on this map.  This was as of 9/30/21.

Can someone explain to me why Lake Travis is still so low if most counties aren't in or near a drought? What all determines the water level?

[HenryJames 66,051]

3 hours ago, Hate said:

This week ought to put an end to a lot of the "abnormally dry" areas on this map. 

Your mom wasn't abnormally dry last night.

[Orange&White 5,528]

8 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Can someone explain to me why Lake Travis is still so low if most counties aren't in or near a drought? What all determines the water level?

Lake Travis actually went up in the spring and early summer with all of the rains. It started at about 659 and peaked and leveled out at about 666'. It wasn't until about five weeks ago, when it got so dry and the 100's showed up, that it has dropped down to its current state of 662'. 

All in all, a pretty average summer for that lake, if not slightly above average in terms of total number of feet down from beginning of the summer to the end.

As far as what affects it, obviously rain falling in the right places is the key. Most of the rains that fell in the spring were falling on Austin and not actually in the basin. Outflows to the rice farmers wasn't an issue this year and the lack of 100 degree days helped with evaporation.

[atomheartbevo 89,662]

https://isthelakefullyet.com

 

[SquishMitten 10,406]

Can someone explain to me why Lake Travis is still so low if most counties aren't in or near a drought? What all determines the water level?

I’m not an expert on such matters, but I think it has to do with how much water comes in vs. how much water goes out

[ztejas 43,425]

13 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I’m not an expert on such matters, but I think it has to do with how much water comes in vs. how much water goes out

Hmm. Still not sure I'm getting it. Perhaps an analogy might help?

[Guest Lobo]

Damn, sitting on my front porch listening to George Strait.  Wish we were down there.  It's a muddy mess but the weather has been beautiful.  Tomorrow's gonna soak the grass again down there but should make for a pretty good evening.  Sunday looks nice overall.  

I punted tickets until next weekend when It's looking 95 with the heat index.  I know that doesn't register as "warm" to tough Texans, but it can wear a middle-aged man after 3 days of 9 hours a day on your feet with little shade and 10-15 drinks over the course of the day.  But for Texas, I will! 

Edited October 2, 2021 by Lobo

[phdhorn 6,224]

So maybe they'll crack the "exactly where and when" on rain forecasting after all?  This is pretty cool, from the Brits:
 

DeepMind’s AI predicts almost exactly when and where it’s going to rain

(excerpt)
First protein folding, now weather forecasting: London-based AI firm DeepMind is continuing its run applying deep learning to hard science problems. Working with the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, DeepMind has developed a deep-learning tool called DGMR that can accurately predict the likelihood of rain in the next 90 minutes—one of weather forecasting’s toughest challenges.

In a blind comparison with existing tools, several dozen experts judged DGMR’s forecasts to be the best across a range of factors—including its predictions of the location, extent, movement, and intensity of the rain—89% of the time. The results were published in a Nature paper today.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/09/29/1036331/deepminds-ai-predicts-almost-exactly-when-and-where-its-going-to-rain/

Pretty soon I won't be needed and I'll have to forfeit the $200K per year salary do do weather here.  But this is mondo cool anyway, if it even gets it right half of the time.

 

[phdhorn 6,224]

Granted, 90 minutes isn't exactly "thanks so I can plan my weekend" but I'd expect it to telescope out eventually.  Better than nuthin'.

[Guest Lobo]

^

That's really fucking impressive, 89% accuracy down to the location.  

Not this particular AI project obviously, but Troy Kimmel told our class that in 25 years, computer modeling all its own---with no human input once the code was written---would make his profession obsolete.  This was in 1998.  If only his weather predictions were as spot on as his tech trends forecast.  

Edited October 4, 2021 by Lobo

[phdhorn 6,224]

I mean, most of the time they can tell you when/where it's gonna rain 3-4 hours, never mind 90 minutes before it does by looking at the radar.  But of course what they can't do is account for showers/storms popping up/building from nothing.  If this model can do that, it's a step forward (but not sure).

[Orange&White 5,528]

51 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

I mean, most of the time they can tell you when/where it's gonna rain 3-4 hours, never mind 90 minutes before it does by looking at the radar.  But of course what they can't do is account for showers/storms popping up/building from nothing.  If this model can do that, it's a step forward (but not sure).

Oh yeah, Mister Bee Caves Smart Guy, how do you explain the FORCE FIELD?

[Steel Shank 9,425]

10 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Oh yeah, Mister Bee Caves Smart Guy, how do you explain the FORCE FIELD?

* Bee Cave

[Bevo 13,577]

Just now, Steel Shank said:

* Bee Cave

Bees Cave

[Orange&White 5,528]

21 minutes ago, Steel Shank said:

* Bee Cave

220, 221. Whatever it takes.

But maybe, JUST Maybe, I was not referring to the town, but to multiple, actual caves that bees reside in? Ever think of that Mister Sammich man?

[Steel Shank 9,425]

4 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

220, 221. Whatever it takes.

But maybe, JUST Maybe, I was not referring to the town, but to multiple, actual caves that bees reside in? Ever think of that Mister Sammich man?

You're just jealous.

[Orange&White 5,528]

28 minutes ago, Steel Shank said:

You're just jealous.

Very. I've always wanted to live in a cave.

[Guest Lobo]

I did finally get to the bottom of the name of 2244.  TXDoT officially told me it’s Bee Caves Road.  No idea about the town though

[phdhorn 6,224]

Clear-up:

1) There are caves in Bee Cave, and bees used them a lot.  Not sure about now, but likely some.
2) The road name still leads to confusion, because whatever the official name is, both exist.  On GoogMaps, it's Caves.  However:


I haven't looked lately, but in my experience the majority of road signs are singular (this sign 360 going N @ 2244).  My thinking is old style is plural, but lately it's matched up with the town name.  Bee Cave in 1995 had 128 people.  Now it's got over 5,000.  So I guess they decided to eliminate confusion or just hate "S"es, or probably saved like $65 billion to eliminate the "S" from road signs.
3)  The town name is singular, never has been plural.
 

[Anastasis 23,469]

[miguelito 11,266]

New Braunsfel

[utee94 15,823]

*News Braunsfeld

[RamjetFDO 10,575]

3 hours ago, Bevo said:

Bees Cave

Bee(s) Cave(s)

[bolverk 29,672]

  

#whynotboth

[Bevo 13,577]

9 minutes ago, RamjetFDO said:

Bee(s) Cave(s)

Admittedly, I don't know the area real well. Are there real caves there or just caves for bees?

[RamjetFDO 10,575]

Just now, Bevo said:

Admittedly, I don't know the area real well. Are there real caves there or just caves for bees?

[Steel Shank 9,425]

2 hours ago, Orange&White said:

Very. I've always wanted to live in a cave.

You got a concave head, so there's that! lol!!

[phdhorn 6,224]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Admittedly, I don't know the area real well. Are there real caves there or just caves for bees?

1) See post #1925 above.
2) Real picture of real caves:

3) Cornelius and Zira found a talking ape doll 30 feet down in the cave on the right, but Dr. Zaius blew it up inside.

[Bevo 13,577]

58 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

3) Cornelius and Zira found a talking ape doll 30 feet down in the cave on the right, but Dr. Zaius blew it up inside.

I had one of those: "I'm hungry, Kong. Have a banana." Could have blown mine up too.

[Post Oak 20,213]

4 hours ago, Orange&White said:

Very. I've always wanted to live in a cave.

From your posting history I assumed you did.

[Steel Shank 9,425]

2 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

From your posting history I assumed you did.

Ouch!

[atomheartbevo 89,662]

On 10/1/2021 at 8:48 PM, ztejas said:

Hmm. Still not sure I'm getting it. Perhaps an analogy might help?

On 10/1/2021 at 4:46 PM, atomheartbevo said:

https://isthelakefullyet.com

Visual illustration?

 

[Guest Lobo]

3 hours ago, bolverk said:

  

#whynotboth

Were you trying to blur out "ECR" because I think we're on to your ruse.  I drive by that bank on my way to Trader Joe's.  I have no idea what the hell goes on in there.  The only cars are employees, the 3-lane drive-thru is always empty.  It sits on a half acre and is 15,000 square feet.  And just like the two downtown surface branches, there's never anything happening at them.  

And then right across the street from that bank (to the right of that photo) is that weird little "office park" where it looks like somebody made an attempt at a Victorian Christmas village with like 8 old-timey houses and then halfway through said, "Ah fuck it, turn 'em into spaces for accountants."  They even had a nice gazebo in the middle of it all but turned that into the place where you get your mail.  It is so fucking weird.  You never see anybody really going/coming from there but I'm told it's 90% leased. 

Edited October 4, 2021 by Lobo

[bolverk 29,672]

12 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Were you trying to blur out "ECR" because I think we're on to your ruse.  I drive by that bank on my way to Trader Joe's.  I have no idea what the hell goes on in there.  The only cars are employees, the 3-lane drive-thru is always empty.  It sits on a half acre and is 15,000 square feet.  And just like the two downtown surface branches, there's never anything happening at them.  

And then right across the street from that bank (to the right of that photo) is that weird little "office park" where it looks like somebody made an attempt at a Victorian Christmas village with like 8 old-timey houses and then halfway through said, "Ah fuck it, turn 'em into spaces for accountants."  They even had a nice gazebo in the middle of it all but turned that into the place where you get your mail.  It is so fucking weird.  You never see anybody really going/coming from there but I'm told it's 90% leased. 

'Tis but a simple screenshoot directly from Streetview, so the blur is all Google.