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2021 Rain Thread

South Austin

By South Austin
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Bash Riprock
Bash Riprock

Last night outside Lubbock.

Trey3216
Trey3216

He puts the hospital in hospitality   

Homercles
Homercles

My 13yo dog kept trying to shove past me to go outside.  We had to have a conversation: Me: ”Girl don’t go out there, it’s dangerous” Bindi: ”I must investigate this disturbance” M-”The

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

Posted
Posted

Brief update:

Seems like the focus of the heaviest rain has shifted a bit NW of us overnight, and radar is showing that.  Of course storms could easily build/move SE to ATX and drop a lot of rain and some potent storms, but chances are down to about 40%.   If this happens, then my post above referring to a less stable atmosphere on Friday will win out (as I was sort of leaning).  If true, then Friday will start fairly dry, maybe even some sun, and it could last well into midday.  However, if that happens, I'd say it's almost a sure thing that sun heating will cause storms to build after about 4-5.  ACL seems to be okay for the first half, then touch/go for the evening.  Not sure what they'd do if lightning happens, but it might.

If we do end up getting soaked tonight, I still think Friday will have rain, but not as much, and not "frontal squall" potent thunderstorms.

Back tomorrow morning to check the radar.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

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Another brief update:

Good news is that the rain did come in of course.  Pretty much everyone got it in ATX region, and almost equally, and a lot.  For ACL this means that the atmosphere has been kind of stabilized, so rain is probably not going to happen for at least the first few hours of it.

The maybe bad news is that if it remains sunny, no question with all this moisture and the big low still in the 4 corners that it'll spin another trigger this afternoon and with the sun doing its job, I'd expect a flareup at the typical time (later afternoon or evening).  Key is watch the radar for stuff to start forming west, although with this low it could "blow up" nearer to us.  I'd say chances of another soaking are about 60% right now.  But I think daytime ACL at least will be okay.  We'll see, be back if anything of interest happens.
 

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Skipper

Skipper 6411

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Early forecasts were rain all week in Dallas which we need.  Instead we maybe got a brief shower over night but that's it.  Supposed to get some tonight/tomorrow AM but I'll believe it when I see it after the models have missed all week.  Latest I saw is that it should clear up in Ft. Worth by kickoff which is good.

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bolverk

bolverk 30323

Posted
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20 minutes ago, Hate said:

This week ought to put an end to a lot of the "abnormally dry" areas on this map.  This was as of 9/30/21.

20210928_tx_none.png

Looks like a minor but highly concentrated 6-inch rain bomb fell right over the creek east of Brady which flows into the San Saba and then Colorado (obviously). Good for your place out at Lake Buchanan.

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Hate

Hate 20249

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Yeah, I’ve been watching the LCRA Hydromet page the last few days. I think the ground was a little too dry for as much runoff as might be expected ordinarily with that kind of rainfall. The San Saba is up a little bit, but not a whole lot. I’m not going to complain as the lake will rise a little bit out this.

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ztejas

ztejas 44227

Posted
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2 hours ago, Hate said:

This week ought to put an end to a lot of the "abnormally dry" areas on this map.  This was as of 9/30/21.

20210928_tx_none.png

Can someone explain to me why Lake Travis is still so low if most counties aren't in or near a drought? What all determines the water level?

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Orange&White

Orange&White 5573

Posted
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8 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Can someone explain to me why Lake Travis is still so low if most counties aren't in or near a drought? What all determines the water level?

Lake Travis actually went up in the spring and early summer with all of the rains. It started at about 659 and peaked and leveled out at about 666'. It wasn't until about five weeks ago, when it got so dry and the 100's showed up, that it has dropped down to its current state of 662'. 

All in all, a pretty average summer for that lake, if not slightly above average in terms of total number of feet down from beginning of the summer to the end.

As far as what affects it, obviously rain falling in the right places is the key. Most of the rains that fell in the spring were falling on Austin and not actually in the basin. Outflows to the rice farmers wasn't an issue this year and the lack of 100 degree days helped with evaporation.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted (edited)

Damn, sitting on my front porch listening to George Strait.  Wish we were down there.  It's a muddy mess but the weather has been beautiful.  Tomorrow's gonna soak the grass again down there but should make for a pretty good evening.  Sunday looks nice overall.  

I punted tickets until next weekend when It's looking 95 with the heat index.  I know that doesn't register as "warm" to tough Texans, but it can wear a middle-aged man after 3 days of 9 hours a day on your feet with little shade and 10-15 drinks over the course of the day.  But for Texas, I will! 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

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Posted

So maybe they'll crack the "exactly where and when" on rain forecasting after all?  This is pretty cool, from the Brits:
 

DeepMind’s AI predicts almost exactly when and where it’s going to rain

(excerpt)
First protein folding, now weather forecasting: London-based AI firm DeepMind is continuing its run applying deep learning to hard science problems. Working with the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, DeepMind has developed a deep-learning tool called DGMR that can accurately predict the likelihood of rain in the next 90 minutes—one of weather forecasting’s toughest challenges.

In a blind comparison with existing tools, several dozen experts judged DGMR’s forecasts to be the best across a range of factors—including its predictions of the location, extent, movement, and intensity of the rain—89% of the time. The results were published in a Nature paper today.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/09/29/1036331/deepminds-ai-predicts-almost-exactly-when-and-where-its-going-to-rain/

Pretty soon I won't be needed and I'll have to forfeit the $200K per year salary do do weather here.  But this is mondo cool anyway, if it even gets it right half of the time.


 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted (edited)

^

That's really fucking impressive, 89% accuracy down to the location.  

Not this particular AI project obviously, but Troy Kimmel told our class that in 25 years, computer modeling all its own---with no human input once the code was written---would make his profession obsolete.  This was in 1998.  If only his weather predictions were as spot on as his tech trends forecast.  

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

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I mean, most of the time they can tell you when/where it's gonna rain 3-4 hours, never mind 90 minutes before it does by looking at the radar.  But of course what they can't do is account for showers/storms popping up/building from nothing.  If this model can do that, it's a step forward (but not sure).

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Orange&White

Orange&White 5573

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

I mean, most of the time they can tell you when/where it's gonna rain 3-4 hours, never mind 90 minutes before it does by looking at the radar.  But of course what they can't do is account for showers/storms popping up/building from nothing.  If this model can do that, it's a step forward (but not sure).

Oh yeah, Mister Bee Caves Smart Guy, how do you explain the FORCE FIELD?

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

Posted
Posted

Clear-up:

1) There are caves in Bee Cave, and bees used them a lot.  Not sure about now, but likely some.
2) The road name still leads to confusion, because whatever the official name is, both exist.  On GoogMaps, it's Caves.  However:
bv.png.5165981ad34ca135d70c77f4f6d02c15.png

I haven't looked lately, but in my experience the majority of road signs are singular (this sign 360 going N @ 2244).  My thinking is old style is plural, but lately it's matched up with the town name.  Bee Cave in 1995 had 128 people.  Now it's got over 5,000.  So I guess they decided to eliminate confusion or just hate "S"es, or probably saved like $65 billion to eliminate the "S" from road signs.
3)  The town name is singular, never has been plural.
 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Admittedly, I don't know the area real well. Are there real caves there or just caves for bees?

1) See post #1925 above.
2) Real picture of real caves:
bcc.png.f1d3cc639658f912fd7cace1608fb3b9.png

3) Cornelius and Zira found a talking ape doll 30 feet down in the cave on the right, but Dr. Zaius blew it up inside.

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Bevo

Bevo 13893

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58 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

3) Cornelius and Zira found a talking ape doll 30 feet down in the cave on the right, but Dr. Zaius blew it up inside.

I had one of those: "I'm hungry, Kong. Have a banana." Could have blown mine up too.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, bolverk said:

image.thumb.png.f612fc77c47e5a2ff48d5f65fbc9bd82.png  

#whynotboth

Were you trying to blur out "ECR" because I think we're on to your ruse.  I drive by that bank on my way to Trader Joe's.  I have no idea what the hell goes on in there.  The only cars are employees, the 3-lane drive-thru is always empty.  It sits on a half acre and is 15,000 square feet.  And just like the two downtown surface branches, there's never anything happening at them.  

And then right across the street from that bank (to the right of that photo) is that weird little "office park" where it looks like somebody made an attempt at a Victorian Christmas village with like 8 old-timey houses and then halfway through said, "Ah fuck it, turn 'em into spaces for accountants."  They even had a nice gazebo in the middle of it all but turned that into the place where you get your mail.  It is so fucking weird.  You never see anybody really going/coming from there but I'm told it's 90% leased. 

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bolverk

bolverk 30323

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Were you trying to blur out "ECR" because I think we're on to your ruse.  I drive by that bank on my way to Trader Joe's.  I have no idea what the hell goes on in there.  The only cars are employees, the 3-lane drive-thru is always empty.  It sits on a half acre and is 15,000 square feet.  And just like the two downtown surface branches, there's never anything happening at them.  

And then right across the street from that bank (to the right of that photo) is that weird little "office park" where it looks like somebody made an attempt at a Victorian Christmas village with like 8 old-timey houses and then halfway through said, "Ah fuck it, turn 'em into spaces for accountants."  They even had a nice gazebo in the middle of it all but turned that into the place where you get your mail.  It is so fucking weird.  You never see anybody really going/coming from there but I'm told it's 90% leased. 

'Tis but a simple screenshoot directly from Streetview, so the blur is all Google.

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