2021 Rain Thread

[hornian 5,218]

@phdhorn - you gonna bust Chikage’s bubble or verify it’s veracity?

 

[phdhorn 6,224]

Bit of an Update:

Yeah, it's gonna rain overnight.

A few days ago, this little front was supposed to be severe in N. Texas but likely just fizzle out (stop me when you've heard this before) in our southern portion.  Last day or so of course that's changed, and we're now likely to get a frontal squall come through between 11 p.m and 3 or so.  Should be in and out of here in one swoop, and a rather fast mover at that.  But not a long event in one area - maybe 45 mins.  The worst of it will be Waco north, where tornadoes and severe weather are more likely (not a given), but definitely chances are worse.  The worst of it will be up through OK and KS.

Nevertheless there could be areas of potent storms/hail/strong winds in some cells around here.  Maybe a severe TS warning in an isolated spot or two, but for most of us this is a frontal sweep with storms that could have heavy if brief rain.  Probably some good booms too.  But will be gone by wake-up time.

That said, we should enjoy a fairly cool day (82°ish) on Monday, but it's not going to last.  Humidity sets back in, then we have an interesting thing going on during the week.  A pacific hurricane will rain out and move up, interacting with a stronger cold front Tues-Wed.  That'll bring a good bit of rain.  More on that tomorrow.

[TwiceHorn 31,457]

36 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Bit of an Update:

Yeah, it's gonna rain overnight.

A few days ago, this little front was supposed to be severe in N. Texas but likely just fizzle out (stop me when you've heard this before) in our southern portion.  Last day or so of course that's changed, and we're now likely to get a frontal squall come through between 11 p.m and 3 or so.  Should be in and out of here in one swoop, and a rather fast mover at that.  But not a long event in one area - maybe 45 mins.  The worst of it will be Waco north, where tornadoes and severe weather are more likely (not a given), but definitely chances are worse.  The worst of it will be up through OK and KS.

Nevertheless there could be areas of potent storms/hail/strong winds in some cells around here.  Maybe a severe TS warning in an isolated spot or two, but for most of us this is a frontal sweep with storms that could have heavy if brief rain.  Probably some good booms too.  But will be gone by wake-up time.

That said, we should enjoy a fairly cool day (82°ish) on Monday, but it's not going to last.  Humidity sets back in, then we have an interesting thing going on during the week.  A pacific hurricane will rain out and move up, interacting with a stronger cold front Tues-Wed.  That'll bring a good bit of rain.  More on that tomorrow.

Yeah, until about 4-5pm, the Plex was in a "slight" zone and now it's Enhanced.  Everything shifting southward a little.

I was riding my bike up around Royal Lane, today, where the October surprise hit two (three?) years ago.  Lots of new construction, and, it is surprising and odd to see the residential areas pretty denuded.  Really makes you appreciate how tree-y that part of nawf Dallas is compared to the usual suburban hellscape.

Edited October 11, 2021 by TwiceHorn

[SquishMitten 10,405]

Weird that there’s nothing showing anywhere near us on radar, but just heard a sexy rumbling off in the distance. Fingers crossed we get some of that wet stuff from the sky

[Biff Tannen 45,680]

It’s coming. 
 

[Jersey Man10 3,528]

It’s already here.

[TwiceHorn 31,457]

Pretty much a damp fart in nawf Dallas.  No real serious winds, rain was heavyish but brief.  Moved through pretty fast.

[texasjacket 289]

8 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

It’s coming. 
 

What app is that?

[Blotto 23,498]

21 minutes ago, texasjacket said:

What app is that?

Looks like Dark Sky. Can't say for certain because when Apple bought em, they promptly discontinued Android support, but thats what I remember the app looking like. I think they are also shutting down support for the iOS apps as well and will be baking in the useful features to the native iOS weather apps.

 

[Biff Tannen 45,680]

1 hour ago, Blotto said:

Looks like Dark Sky. Can't say for certain because when Apple bought em, they promptly discontinued Android support, but thats what I remember the app looking like. I think they are also shutting down support for the iOS apps as well and will be baking in the useful features to the native iOS weather apps.

 

Yes Dark Sky. 

[CHEF DIESEL 126]

Fingers crossed remnants of Hurricane Pamela cross Mexico and hit North Texas squarely. Need some water for ducks.

[phdhorn 6,224]

Semi-Quickie Version (maybe more in detail tomorrow):

Today will be crisper (for once!) and sunny, a brief respite after the weekend's hot soup (about 87° avg. today). Enjoy it.
Tomorrow - humidity returns, soupy and warmer again (near 90°).  Decent chance of brief shower or two towards nighttime.
Wed/Thurs - Humid and warm to start Wed., then rain moves in afternoon.  Could be some heavy rain later Wed. into Thurs. morning. 
Fri - rain moves out, pt. cloudy.

Daytime temps for the latter week high 80's, except if/when rain cools things down.

In case anyone's asking, the weekend looks very good - clear and really nice, temps don't leave the 70's - both days.  Nicest weekend we'll have had since at least last April.

So we have another cool front coming in on the heels of another storm Wed.  But we also have moisture running up from Hurricane Pamela, which looks to be heading straight for Texas (not to Arizona as is often the case.  The leftover moisture should react with the front, stirring up a lot of rain somewhere in Texas.  Over us?  That's what I'll have to wait on for at least another day, but chances are good most of Texas gets something.  Check back in 24. 

[texasdago 7,573]

1/2" last night.  Looking forward to more rain and then glory!

[hornian 5,218]

Avery Tomasco thinks it’s happening:

 

[txhorns 2,409]

Storms knocked my power out last night, it's still out.  Knocked my fence down too.

[ROFL BOX 6,649]

4 hours ago, txhorns said:

Storms knocked my power out last night, it's still out.  Knocked my fence down too.

Considering the price of a replaced fence, you may be exceeding a deductible.  How many feet down?  Stained, not stained, etc?

 

Also, we got over 1" here in the 78620 & a really solid lightning shot blasted somewhere behind the house.  Didn't go into the woods today to look, but if the power pole didn't take a direct hit (we didn't lose power), then I have 2 outbuildings or some trees that maybe got zapped.

[ztejas 43,420]

7 hours ago, hornian said:

Avery Tomasco thinks it’s happening:

 

[HiggyBaby 2,529]

Avery Tomasco thinks it’s happening:
 

I’m pretty sure we’ve had quite a few Pacific storm remnants drift over Texas in the past, with various strengths. What’s this guy so giddy about?

[phdhorn 6,224]

Update:
 
First, the round of rain we got this a.m. was actually predicted but I didn't put it in yesterday.  Rest of today will be soupy, infrequent on/off light rain, one of those armpit kind of days.

Second, here we go... the next 3 days should be a roller coaster of a few moderate/heavy rain periods, mostly overnight.  The ingredients are really there for some heavy rain - the only reason flooding won't be bad is because this stuff will keep moving through.  Explanation follows forecast.

Today:  again, periods of light to moderate, very brief rain, but more of just a humid, cloudy day.
Wed:  starts off dry, but a big complex of heavy rain should move in after dinner, last well into the night. Periods of moderate to heavy rain for most of us, a couple of severe storms, but not widely forecast.
Thurs: rounds of significant rain early overnight, slowly taper off say by lunchtime.  
Fri:  System sweeps out overnight, slow clearing - but front not quite through until overnight.
Sat:  Paradise (but breezy) - front goes by, drops temps well down into the 70's for high.  Breezy enough to affect passing games Sat - maybe.

Explanation:
There's a big storm system swinging down from central Pacific coast.  It's driving right for us.  Pamela, a now Cat 2 hurricane, will be drawn to us by this low.. it'll rain out in SW Mexico and more or less shred apart, but all that moisture will stream right up our way.  The bulk of this moisture will start to reach us tomorrow night (first round of rain).  But when that low pushes in (overnight Wed to Thurs) it's gonna get a jump start of instability plus a ton more of moisture, which is going to ramp up the rain.  The bulk of this clash will be out west of us, say between Lubbock and San Angelo, but the momentum and movement will bring a good amount of the result of this clash into ATX.  NWS has flash flood watches Wed. night, where some 2-3 inches are expected here, about 4-6 west of Blanco into the Hill Country and west.  However, 7+" are possible in any spot - including ours.  With autumn systems like this, they're often big rainmakers.  We won't be smack in the bullseye, but the bullseye can move.  As I always say with stuff like this (which could be a next-to-nothing burger or Genesis 6, Part 2), watch the radar early.  Then we'll know more or less where the bulk of it will go.

This shouldn't be a widespread severe event, or an apocalyptic level flood, but with this very strong clash of two powerful lows, you gotta be on watch.

More when the rain really is 'posed ta hit tomorrow. 

[Hate 20,108]

Here is the latest from the NWS.

[Guest Lobo]

I had my laptop turned upside-down, and it looks like Tulsa is the taint?  

This weather report checks out 

Edited October 12, 2021 by Lobo

[texasdago 7,573]

2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Update:
 
First, the round of rain we got this a.m. was actually predicted but I didn't put it in yesterday.  Rest of today will be soupy, infrequent on/off light rain, one of those armpit kind of days.

Second, here we go... the next 3 days should be a roller coaster of a few moderate/heavy rain periods, mostly overnight.  The ingredients are really there for some heavy rain - the only reason flooding won't be bad is because this stuff will keep moving through.  Explanation follows forecast.

Today:  again, periods of light to moderate, very brief rain, but more of just a humid, cloudy day.
Wed:  starts off dry, but a big complex of heavy rain should move in after dinner, last well into the night. Periods of moderate to heavy rain for most of us, a couple of severe storms, but not widely forecast.
Thurs: rounds of significant rain early overnight, slowly taper off say by lunchtime.  
Fri:  System sweeps out overnight, slow clearing - but front not quite through until overnight.
Sat:  Paradise (but breezy) - front goes by, drops temps well down into the 70's for high.  Breezy enough to affect passing games Sat - maybe.

Explanation:
There's a big storm system swinging down from central Pacific coast.  It's driving right for us.  Pamela, a now Cat 2 hurricane, will be drawn to us by this low.. it'll rain out in SW Mexico and more or less shred apart, but all that moisture will stream right up our way.  The bulk of this moisture will start to reach us tomorrow night (first round of rain).  But when that low pushes in (overnight Wed to Thurs) it's gonna get a jump start of instability plus a ton more of moisture, which is going to ramp up the rain.  The bulk of this clash will be out west of us, say between Lubbock and San Angelo, but the momentum and movement will bring a good amount of the result of this clash into ATX.  NWS has flash flood watches Wed. night, where some 2-3 inches are expected here, about 4-6 west of Blanco into the Hill Country and west.  However, 7+" are possible in any spot - including ours.  With autumn systems like this, they're often big rainmakers.  We won't be smack in the bullseye, but the bullseye can move.  As I always say with stuff like this (which could be a next-to-nothing burger or Genesis 6, Part 2), watch the radar early.  Then we'll know more or less where the bulk of it will go.

This shouldn't be a widespread severe event, or an apocalyptic level flood, but with this very strong clash of two powerful lows, you gotta be on watch.

More when the rain really is 'posed ta hit tomorrow. 

In Houston I would freak out because, you know, Houston is flat.  The water just spreeeeads out.  Here?  The plan is usually simple... don't be a dummy... just stay home.  I still have a schoolboy crush on the storm drains in Austin vs the ones in Houston.

[Hate 20,108]

The soil is pretty dry out in the Western Hill Country, so there may not be a whole lot of run off in most areas except for under the rain bombs.  If the map I poster earlier pans out, the rain bomb may be too far south and west to really make a huge dent in the Highland Lakes. 

[NorthLoop 14,195]

Is it just me or has that hurricane not moved much?

[Bevo 13,576]

8 hours ago, Lobo said:

I had my laptop turned upside-down, and it looks like Tulsa is the taint?  

This weather report checks out 

I think Tulsa always looks like taint.

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

Weather.com thinks we'll have a shitload of rain tonight from 9pm through tomorrow afternoon.

[Deej 76,768]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Weather.com thinks we'll have a shitload of rain tonight from 9pm through tomorrow afternoon.

[Guest]

Looks like 2-4" in Austin area, starting here in another couple of hours. We will see.

[Guest Lobo]

Don’t wanna jinx it but what time roughly do you experts see the rain stopping tomorrow in Austin?   Besides 3:50pm

[Bevo Num1 1,011]

Tornado warning north of San Antonio.

[Nicole44 22,059]

yikes coming at my zip

[F250 28,772]

6 minutes ago, Bevo Num1 said:

Tornado warning north of San Antonio.

[Nicole44 22,059]

Fuck off weather police. We have shit on our phones. Thanks for crapping on a show that is really weird and also sucks. 

[Nicole44 22,059]

Fuck Fox right now. 

[Deej 76,768]

37 minutes ago, Bevo Num1 said:

Tornado warning north of San Antonio.

Prepare your anus, Snake Farm.

[Deej 76,768]

16 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Fuck Fox right now. 

Watching the new Jon Gruden/Tucker Carlson show?

[SquishMitten 10,405]

Is this all going to stay just west of us? And by “us” I mean everyone that’s not PHD? Because it looks like Bee Cave is gonna get plenty

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

My place out off Fitzhugh is catching a rate of 5” per hour.  It’s rained over 2.25” in 20 minutes according to the weather station on my street.  Gonna wash my driveway out.  Oh well maybe the tank will fill back up.  

[NorthLoop 14,195]

Nice light show in NB. I'm guessing the rain starts after I fall asleep and soaks us all night.

[Anastasis 23,469]

hydromet looking pretty pretty good for lake travis. 

[Anastasis 23,469]

@ROFL BOX let's get my chimney flashing sorted dawg.  This fucking rain is killing me. I hate water.  

[burntorangebongos 10,710]

When is this shit gonna stop? 

[SquishMitten 10,405]

When is this shit gonna stop? 

You shut your whore mouth!

[Blotto 23,498]

looks like some training action incoming

[Hate 20,108]

Some call it Amtrak some call it the train!

[texhorn 351]

hydromet looking pretty pretty good for lake travis. 

Just with a glancing average, maybe about an inch across the basin. Some weak numbers out west. Given how dry it’s been, that isn’t going to cut it. Still, every little bit is appreciated/needed…

[Anastasis 23,469]

8 minutes ago, texhorn said:

Just with a glancing average, maybe about an inch across the basin. Some weak numbers out west. Given how dry it’s been, that isn’t going to cut it. Still, every little bit is appreciated/needed…

Just a bit more west and this would have really landed. 

[Nicole44 22,059]

2 plus inches in 78717. 

[TexArcher 37,774]

78750 getting a good soaking with thunder coming from all directions, but none close overhead.

[Nicole44 22,059]

1 hour ago, Deej said:

Watching the new Jon Gruden/Tucker Carlson show?

I was watching that avatar thing "Grimes" (yes she mated with Elon and the name of their child is weird) an Alanis M. and whatever that Nick somthing I was enjoying the show.