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2021 Rain Thread

South Austin

By South Austin
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Bash Riprock
Bash Riprock

Last night outside Lubbock.

Trey3216
Trey3216

He puts the hospital in hospitality   

Homercles
Homercles

My 13yo dog kept trying to shove past me to go outside.  We had to have a conversation: Me: ”Girl don’t go out there, it’s dangerous” Bindi: ”I must investigate this disturbance” M-”The

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

Posted
Posted

Bit of an Update:

Yeah, it's gonna rain overnight.

A few days ago, this little front was supposed to be severe in N. Texas but likely just fizzle out (stop me when you've heard this before) in our southern portion.  Last day or so of course that's changed, and we're now likely to get a frontal squall come through between 11 p.m and 3 or so.  Should be in and out of here in one swoop, and a rather fast mover at that.  But not a long event in one area - maybe 45 mins.  The worst of it will be Waco north, where tornadoes and severe weather are more likely (not a given), but definitely chances are worse.  The worst of it will be up through OK and KS.

Nevertheless there could be areas of potent storms/hail/strong winds in some cells around here.  Maybe a severe TS warning in an isolated spot or two, but for most of us this is a frontal sweep with storms that could have heavy if brief rain.  Probably some good booms too.  But will be gone by wake-up time.

That said, we should enjoy a fairly cool day (82°ish) on Monday, but it's not going to last.  Humidity sets back in, then we have an interesting thing going on during the week.  A pacific hurricane will rain out and move up, interacting with a stronger cold front Tues-Wed.  That'll bring a good bit of rain.  More on that tomorrow.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 32078

Posted
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Bit of an Update:

Yeah, it's gonna rain overnight.

A few days ago, this little front was supposed to be severe in N. Texas but likely just fizzle out (stop me when you've heard this before) in our southern portion.  Last day or so of course that's changed, and we're now likely to get a frontal squall come through between 11 p.m and 3 or so.  Should be in and out of here in one swoop, and a rather fast mover at that.  But not a long event in one area - maybe 45 mins.  The worst of it will be Waco north, where tornadoes and severe weather are more likely (not a given), but definitely chances are worse.  The worst of it will be up through OK and KS.

Nevertheless there could be areas of potent storms/hail/strong winds in some cells around here.  Maybe a severe TS warning in an isolated spot or two, but for most of us this is a frontal sweep with storms that could have heavy if brief rain.  Probably some good booms too.  But will be gone by wake-up time.

That said, we should enjoy a fairly cool day (82°ish) on Monday, but it's not going to last.  Humidity sets back in, then we have an interesting thing going on during the week.  A pacific hurricane will rain out and move up, interacting with a stronger cold front Tues-Wed.  That'll bring a good bit of rain.  More on that tomorrow.

Yeah, until about 4-5pm, the Plex was in a "slight" zone and now it's Enhanced.  Everything shifting southward a little.

I was riding my bike up around Royal Lane, today, where the October surprise hit two (three?) years ago.  Lots of new construction, and, it is surprising and odd to see the residential areas pretty denuded.  Really makes you appreciate how tree-y that part of nawf Dallas is compared to the usual suburban hellscape.

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Blotto

Blotto 24018

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, texasjacket said:

What app is that?

Looks like Dark Sky. Can't say for certain because when Apple bought em, they promptly discontinued Android support, but thats what I remember the app looking like. I think they are also shutting down support for the iOS apps as well and will be baking in the useful features to the native iOS weather apps.

 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 46165

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

Looks like Dark Sky. Can't say for certain because when Apple bought em, they promptly discontinued Android support, but thats what I remember the app looking like. I think they are also shutting down support for the iOS apps as well and will be baking in the useful features to the native iOS weather apps.

 

Yes Dark Sky. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

Posted
Posted

Semi-Quickie Version (maybe more in detail tomorrow):

Today will be crisper (for once!) and sunny, a brief respite after the weekend's hot soup (about 87° avg. today). Enjoy it.
Tomorrow - humidity returns, soupy and warmer again (near 90°).  Decent chance of brief shower or two towards nighttime.
Wed/Thurs - Humid and warm to start Wed., then rain moves in afternoon.  Could be some heavy rain later Wed. into Thurs. morning. 
Fri - rain moves out, pt. cloudy.

Daytime temps for the latter week high 80's, except if/when rain cools things down.

In case anyone's asking, the weekend looks very good - clear and really nice, temps don't leave the 70's - both days.  Nicest weekend we'll have had since at least last April.

So we have another cool front coming in on the heels of another storm Wed.  But we also have moisture running up from Hurricane Pamela, which looks to be heading straight for Texas (not to Arizona as is often the case.  The leftover moisture should react with the front, stirring up a lot of rain somewhere in Texas.  Over us?  That's what I'll have to wait on for at least another day, but chances are good most of Texas gets something.  Check back in 24. 

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ROFL BOX

ROFL BOX 6655

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, txhorns said:

Storms knocked my power out last night, it's still out.  Knocked my fence down too.

Considering the price of a replaced fence, you may be exceeding a deductible.  How many feet down?  Stained, not stained, etc?

 

Also, we got over 1" here in the 78620 & a really solid lightning shot blasted somewhere behind the house.  Didn't go into the woods today to look, but if the power pole didn't take a direct hit (we didn't lose power), then I have 2 outbuildings or some trees that maybe got zapped.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

Posted
Posted

Update:
 
First, the round of rain we got this a.m. was actually predicted but I didn't put it in yesterday.  Rest of today will be soupy, infrequent on/off light rain, one of those armpit kind of days.

Second, here we go... the next 3 days should be a roller coaster of a few moderate/heavy rain periods, mostly overnight.  The ingredients are really there for some heavy rain - the only reason flooding won't be bad is because this stuff will keep moving through.  Explanation follows forecast.

Today:  again, periods of light to moderate, very brief rain, but more of just a humid, cloudy day.
Wed:  starts off dry, but a big complex of heavy rain should move in after dinner, last well into the night. Periods of moderate to heavy rain for most of us, a couple of severe storms, but not widely forecast.
Thurs: rounds of significant rain early overnight, slowly taper off say by lunchtime.  
Fri:  System sweeps out overnight, slow clearing - but front not quite through until overnight.
Sat:  Paradise (but breezy) - front goes by, drops temps well down into the 70's for high.  Breezy enough to affect passing games Sat - maybe.

Explanation:
There's a big storm system swinging down from central Pacific coast.  It's driving right for us.  Pamela, a now Cat 2 hurricane, will be drawn to us by this low.. it'll rain out in SW Mexico and more or less shred apart, but all that moisture will stream right up our way.  The bulk of this moisture will start to reach us tomorrow night (first round of rain).  But when that low pushes in (overnight Wed to Thurs) it's gonna get a jump start of instability plus a ton more of moisture, which is going to ramp up the rain.  The bulk of this clash will be out west of us, say between Lubbock and San Angelo, but the momentum and movement will bring a good amount of the result of this clash into ATX.  NWS has flash flood watches Wed. night, where some 2-3 inches are expected here, about 4-6 west of Blanco into the Hill Country and west.  However, 7+" are possible in any spot - including ours.  With autumn systems like this, they're often big rainmakers.  We won't be smack in the bullseye, but the bullseye can move.  As I always say with stuff like this (which could be a next-to-nothing burger or Genesis 6, Part 2), watch the radar early.  Then we'll know more or less where the bulk of it will go.

This shouldn't be a widespread severe event, or an apocalyptic level flood, but with this very strong clash of two powerful lows, you gotta be on watch.

More when the rain really is 'posed ta hit tomorrow. 

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texasdago

texasdago 7770

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Update:
 
First, the round of rain we got this a.m. was actually predicted but I didn't put it in yesterday.  Rest of today will be soupy, infrequent on/off light rain, one of those armpit kind of days.

Second, here we go... the next 3 days should be a roller coaster of a few moderate/heavy rain periods, mostly overnight.  The ingredients are really there for some heavy rain - the only reason flooding won't be bad is because this stuff will keep moving through.  Explanation follows forecast.

Today:  again, periods of light to moderate, very brief rain, but more of just a humid, cloudy day.
Wed:  starts off dry, but a big complex of heavy rain should move in after dinner, last well into the night. Periods of moderate to heavy rain for most of us, a couple of severe storms, but not widely forecast.
Thurs: rounds of significant rain early overnight, slowly taper off say by lunchtime.  
Fri:  System sweeps out overnight, slow clearing - but front not quite through until overnight.
Sat:  Paradise (but breezy) - front goes by, drops temps well down into the 70's for high.  Breezy enough to affect passing games Sat - maybe.

Explanation:
There's a big storm system swinging down from central Pacific coast.  It's driving right for us.  Pamela, a now Cat 2 hurricane, will be drawn to us by this low.. it'll rain out in SW Mexico and more or less shred apart, but all that moisture will stream right up our way.  The bulk of this moisture will start to reach us tomorrow night (first round of rain).  But when that low pushes in (overnight Wed to Thurs) it's gonna get a jump start of instability plus a ton more of moisture, which is going to ramp up the rain.  The bulk of this clash will be out west of us, say between Lubbock and San Angelo, but the momentum and movement will bring a good amount of the result of this clash into ATX.  NWS has flash flood watches Wed. night, where some 2-3 inches are expected here, about 4-6 west of Blanco into the Hill Country and west.  However, 7+" are possible in any spot - including ours.  With autumn systems like this, they're often big rainmakers.  We won't be smack in the bullseye, but the bullseye can move.  As I always say with stuff like this (which could be a next-to-nothing burger or Genesis 6, Part 2), watch the radar early.  Then we'll know more or less where the bulk of it will go.

This shouldn't be a widespread severe event, or an apocalyptic level flood, but with this very strong clash of two powerful lows, you gotta be on watch.

More when the rain really is 'posed ta hit tomorrow. 

In Houston I would freak out because, you know, Houston is flat.  The water just spreeeeads out.  Here?  The plan is usually simple... don't be a dummy... just stay home.  I still have a schoolboy crush on the storm drains in Austin vs the ones in Houston.

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Hate

Hate 20247

Posted
Posted

The soil is pretty dry out in the Western Hill Country, so there may not be a whole lot of run off in most areas except for under the rain bombs.  If the map I poster earlier pans out, the rain bomb may be too far south and west to really make a huge dent in the Highland Lakes. 

Soil Moisture.png

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23718

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, texhorn said:


Just with a glancing average, maybe about an inch across the basin. Some weak numbers out west. Given how dry it’s been, that isn’t going to cut it. Still, every little bit is appreciated/needed…

Just a bit more west and this would have really landed. 

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