Texas Recruiting Notes 2024: Bags Don't Beat Bankrolls

[texifornia 56946]

https://247sports.com/player/kolaj-cobbins-46130440/

[Elmer_Fudd 22216]

11 minutes ago, texifornia said:

https://247sports.com/player/kolaj-cobbins-46130440/

Feels like LSU/Texas.  No picks from any LSU mods.  Is he an EDGE or off-ball LB?  Hopefully he pulls a Derek Williams.

[Burt Macklin 19023]

4 hours ago, Doc Daneeka said:

Luckily 10 (plus) wins sounds about right. Beating Alabama on the road and beating OU’s ass again should get the buzziness going. Hopefully it will be maintained through the beatable dregs like Tech and Oklahoma State, if the latter still has enough guys to field a team. 

Expecting a Sark-coached team to win 10 plus games is a bold strategy. 

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

4 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Expecting a Sark-coached team to win 10 plus games is a bold strategy. 

I agree it’s bolder than being the edgy pessimist, since that position here is filled with about 50 more in line. We’ll see if 2023 Sarkisian with an increasingly stacked roster gives the same results y’all like to point to in the past. 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Doc Daneeka

[Viper 12109]

58 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

If there is a year to play Alabama in Tuscaloosa under Nick Saban not called 2007, 2023 is it. Seriously, folks should go look at what they're losing and what they return. The transfer portal didn't go the way they hoped it would, either. We'll what they land in the May 1-15 period, but the rest of the college football world has already sent them a dead guy in the elevator with the words "Ho Ho Ho. Now I have a machine gun too." written in blood on his sweatshirt for them to recognize. 

On offense, they lose 3 starting OL, Bryce Young, Gibbs, and Latu. Milroe isn't an answer at QB and Simpson didn't have a great fall from folks who would know. They tried to lure Drake Maye with $4M in NIL of which they didn't even have a quarter of that raised. Speculatively, they'd conveyed the same Bryce Young corporate treatment would be there but couldn't guarantee it. For one, you can't have a guy in the Heisman House who didn't win a Heisman if you're Nissan. Their WRs don't scare anyone. Burton isn't a witch. McLellan is fine but he's not Gibbs. 

On defense, they lost 8 starters and other key backups. They lost 3 DL including Will Anderson. They lost To'oTo'o and Moody at LB. They lost 4 of their 5 starters in the seconday including Branch, a projected 1st rounder. They do return Dallas Turner, who had a shit season, and McKinstry, both of whom are projected 1st rounders after next season, fwiw. I know and get it, "Alabama replaces tons of guys every year and doesn't miss a beat." That's true until it isn't. The guys they're reloading with this year have less experience and less hype than any group before them. Also, they've rarely lost the vast (64%) majority of their starters in a single cycle. 

So should we send them Scope or Listerine to gargle this year? 

[Magus Ossis 2799]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

If there is a year to play Alabama in Tuscaloosa under Nick Saban not called 2007, 2023 is it. Seriously, folks should go look at what they're losing and what they return. The transfer portal didn't go the way they hoped it would, either. We'll what they land in the May 1-15 period, but the rest of the college football world has already sent them a dead guy in the elevator with the words "Ho Ho Ho. Now I have a machine gun too." written in blood on his sweatshirt for them to recognize. 

On offense, they lose 3 starting OL, Bryce Young, Gibbs, and Latu. Milroe isn't an answer at QB and Simpson didn't have a great fall from folks who would know. They tried to lure Drake Maye with $4M in NIL of which they didn't even have a quarter of that raised. Speculatively, they'd conveyed the same Bryce Young corporate treatment would be there but couldn't guarantee it. For one, you can't have a guy in the Heisman House who didn't win a Heisman if you're Nissan. Their WRs don't scare anyone. Burton isn't a witch. McLellan is fine but he's not Gibbs. 

On defense, they lost 8 starters and other key backups. They lost 3 DL including Will Anderson. They lost To'oTo'o and Moody at LB. They lost 4 of their 5 starters in the seconday including Branch, a projected 1st rounder. They do return Dallas Turner, who had a shit season, and McKinstry, both of whom are projected 1st rounders after next season, fwiw. I know and get it, "Alabama replaces tons of guys every year and doesn't miss a beat." That's true until it isn't. The guys they're reloading with this year have less experience and less hype than any group before them. Also, they've rarely lost the vast (64%) majority of their starters in a single cycle. 

Our game in Tuscaloosa will be the movable object (Portal-era Bama) versus the resistable force (road Sark).

[TexMexBuddha 987]

Our game in Tuscaloosa will be the movable object (Portal-era Bama) versus the resistable force (road Sark).

Then there is the poeticism of Surly. Vision casting at its finest.

[BurntOrange&White 39931]

13 hours ago, Viper said:

So should we send them Scope or Listerine to gargle this year? 

 

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRs8EPXG/

Edited January 26, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[closetojumping 62698]

12 hours ago, Viper said:

So should we send them Scope or Listerine to gargle this year? 

I’m thinking my preseason thread title for Bama this year will be “Alabama Is Here To Tongue Our Balls”. Mix it up a bit. 

[NoName 16351]

13 hours ago, TheContractor said:

Agree 100%, i just feel they will get 3-5 guys in the next portal window, including a QB. They cant go into the season with whats on campus. 

the QB situation is going to be super interesting to see how it plays out. there is no way that Milroe AND Simpson stay if someone else comes in.

who are they going to hire? haven't seen any whispers about OC but if you are a top QB and are considering Alabama it isn't like the scheme is what is going to sway you...

for example, Lebby has been a name talked about a lot BUT he isn't an idiot and knows that he has some level of freedom under Venables - plus he is an OU alum (because of course he is)

Mullen makes sense but he is happy doing TV

Greg Roman's college coaching career literally is being the TE and OT coach at Stanford in 09-10.

the Tulane coach may be awesome but does he move the needle and is he enough of a name?

Kingsbury isn't going back to be a college OC if he is smart. he is just going to collect that fired NFL coach paycheck and enjoy time away.

Brian Johnson is another name I have seen folks say but he was pretty close with Mullins and isn't leaving the Eagles before their season is over - so mid Feb at the earliest?

i wonder if they would moneywhip Garrett Riley?

their QB room and OC hire is going to be interesting to see and watch.

 

[HenryJames 66049]

4 minutes ago, NoName said:

i wonder if they would moneywhip Garrett Riley?

[NoName 16351]

50 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

to be fair, i think Alabama OC > Clemson OC on a job tier list...he probably won't do it but you never know

[texifornia 56946]

Big offer

https://247sports.com/player/justin-williams-46113777/

[Mitch Cumsteen 18549]

Bama lost a grand total of two games last season by a combined 4 points, both on last second scores on the road, and finished 5th in the country after annihilating K-State in their bowl game. And we're over here acting like Saban is post-2010 suicidal Floridian Mack Brown or Bobby Bowden running on dementia fumes at FSU. I get that they are losing a ton off of what was supposed to be one of, if not, their most talented team ever and they have major questions at QB, but their last five recruiting classes were ranked 1, 2, 1, 2 and 1. They will still out talent us across the board.

At every other program in the country, replacing both coordinators would be viewed as a major red flag but let's be honest... Golding should have been shitcanned 2-3 years ago and BoB was average, at best. Whoever they get will almost certainly be upgrades at both positions. They will still be the best team on our schedule next year by a mile. I don't see how anybody could watch us trip over our own dicks at Tech and OSU, get manhandled by TCU and Washington, and see how up and down Ewers was, and think that we are anything other than a huge underdog in Tuscaloosa. 

[Ricky's one-hitter 9103]

6 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Bama lost a grand total of two games last season by a combined 4 points, both on last second scores on the road, and finished 5th in the country after annihilating K-State in their bowl game. And we're over here acting like Saban is post-2010 suicidal Floridian Mack Brown or Bobby Bowden running on dementia fumes at FSU. I get that they are losing a ton off of what was supposed to be one of, if not, their most talented team ever and they have major questions at QB, but their last five recruiting classes were ranked 1, 2, 1, 2 and 1. They will still out talent us across the board.

At every other program in the country, replacing both coordinators would be viewed as a major red flag but let's be honest... Golding should have been shitcanned 2-3 years ago and BoB was average, at best. Whoever they get will almost certainly be upgrades at both positions. They will still be the best team on our schedule next year by a mile. I don't see how anybody could watch us trip over our own dicks at Tech and OSU, get manhandled by TCU and Washington, and see how up and down Ewers was, and think that we are anything other than a huge underdog in Tuscaloosa. 

Motherfucker this is the offseason

[DixonSteele 21]

Sark arrived here at Brownsboro High School in a helicopter a short time ago to visit with WR Gekyle Baker.  Four different schools are visiting with him today.

[irishtexan 11519]

42 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Bama lost a grand total of two games last season by a combined 4 points, both on last second scores on the road, and finished 5th in the country after annihilating K-State in their bowl game. And we're over here acting like Saban is post-2010 suicidal Floridian Mack Brown or Bobby Bowden running on dementia fumes at FSU. I get that they are losing a ton off of what was supposed to be one of, if not, their most talented team ever and they have major questions at QB, but their last five recruiting classes were ranked 1, 2, 1, 2 and 1. They will still out talent us across the board.

At every other program in the country, replacing both coordinators would be viewed as a major red flag but let's be honest... Golding should have been shitcanned 2-3 years ago and BoB was average, at best. Whoever they get will almost certainly be upgrades at both positions. They will still be the best team on our schedule next year by a mile. I don't see how anybody could watch us trip over our own dicks at Tech and OSU, get manhandled by TCU and Washington, and see how up and down Ewers was, and think that we are anything other than a huge underdog in Tuscaloosa. 

I mean, when you put it THAT way.....

[HenryJames 66049]

45 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Bama lost a grand total of two games last season by a combined 4 points, both on last second scores on the road, and finished 5th in the country after annihilating K-State in their bowl game. And we're over here acting like Saban is post-2010 suicidal Floridian Mack Brown or Bobby Bowden running on dementia fumes at FSU. I get that they are losing a ton off of what was supposed to be one of, if not, their most talented team ever and they have major questions at QB, but their last five recruiting classes were ranked 1, 2, 1, 2 and 1. They will still out talent us across the board.

At every other program in the country, replacing both coordinators would be viewed as a major red flag but let's be honest... Golding should have been shitcanned 2-3 years ago and BoB was average, at best. Whoever they get will almost certainly be upgrades at both positions. They will still be the best team on our schedule next year by a mile. I don't see how anybody could watch us trip over our own dicks at Tech and OSU, get manhandled by TCU and Washington, and see how up and down Ewers was, and think that we are anything other than a huge underdog in Tuscaloosa. 

[cafe society 2871]

22 minutes ago, DixonSteele said:

Sark arrived here at Brownsboro High School in a helicopter a short time ago to visit with WR Gekyle Baker.  Four different schools are visiting with him today.

Great username and avatar.

[Vertuzzi 1369]

20 minutes ago, DixonSteele said:

Sark arrived here at Brownsboro High School in a helicopter a short time ago to visit with WR Gekyle Baker.  Four different schools are visiting with him today.

I’ve always wondered what coaches think of us landing the helicopter on the middle of their fields. I just imagine a bunch of shit flying around the field upon landing and taking off that some poor sophomore team manager has to pick up and reorganize. 

[DixonSteele 21]

1 minute ago, Vertuzzi said:

I’ve always wondered what coaches think of us landing the helicopter on the middle of their fields. I just imagine a bunch of shit flying around the field upon landing and taking off that some poor sophomore team manager has to pick up and reorganize. 

They had that portion of the practice field coned off and we were warned not to let our students out of class. The place the helicopter landed is a junior high practice field and they don't leave anything out there.

[Codaxx 5739]

55 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Bama lost a grand total of two games last season by a combined 4 points, both on last second scores on the road, and finished 5th in the country after annihilating K-State in their bowl game. And we're over here acting like Saban is post-2010 suicidal Floridian Mack Brown or Bobby Bowden running on dementia fumes at FSU. I get that they are losing a ton off of what was supposed to be one of, if not, their most talented team ever and they have major questions at QB, but their last five recruiting classes were ranked 1, 2, 1, 2 and 1. They will still out talent us across the board.

At every other program in the country, replacing both coordinators would be viewed as a major red flag but let's be honest... Golding should have been shitcanned 2-3 years ago and BoB was average, at best. Whoever they get will almost certainly be upgrades at both positions. They will still be the best team on our schedule next year by a mile. I don't see how anybody could watch us trip over our own dicks at Tech and OSU, get manhandled by TCU and Washington, and see how up and down Ewers was, and think that we are anything other than a huge underdog in Tuscaloosa. 

Texas will certainly be at least a TD dog in that game, but I do think the cracks are starting to show in the Bama machine. Last year's Bama team was certainly more talented, than the projected  2023 team. That 2022 team underperformed, imagine saying Saban had the best QB in the country and didnt make the playoffs 3 years ago. Bama still has plenty of talent, so it will take awhile to see the dam break. It took years for the talent suck in Austin to show up for Mack. All that Does not mean Texas will win, but this should not be a 30 point ass whipping that most would have expected only 6 months ago. 

[Hornlover 8830]

39 minutes ago, DixonSteele said:

Sark arrived here at Brownsboro High School in a helicopter a short time ago to visit with WR Gekyle Baker.  Four different schools are visiting with him today.

 

16 minutes ago, cafe society said:

Great username and avatar.

DixOfSteele would be more appropriate for the Surly recruiting forum.

[Vertigo 20285]

9 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Texas will certainly be at least a TD dog in that game, but I do think the cracks are starting to show in the Bama machine. Last year's Bama team was certainly more talented, than the projected  2023 team. That 2022 team underperformed, imagine saying Saban had the best QB in the country and didnt make the playoffs 3 years ago. Bama still has plenty of talent, so it will take awhile to see the dam break. It took years for the talent suck in Austin to show up for Mack. All that Does not mean Texas will win, but this should not be a 30 point ass whipping that most would have expected only 6 months ago. 

I don't know that any sane person expects an ass whipping when we took them to the wire just this season with a ridiculously young team. 

[Hookem2147 21235]

Trying to understand the thought process of those who litter every damn thread with "13-12 13-12 13-12 sark sucks sark sucks sark sucks can't win on the the road can't win on the road" getting to the point where they say "At Alabama should be a game we win". 

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

25 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Trying to understand the thought process of those who litter every damn thread with "13-12 13-12 13-12 sark sucks sark sucks sark sucks can't win on the the road can't win on the road" getting to the point where they say "At Alabama should be a game we win". 

Are the same people saying both things? That would be a little incongruous. 

[closetojumping 62698]

1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Bama lost a grand total of two games last season by a combined 4 points, both on last second scores on the road, and finished 5th in the country after annihilating K-State in their bowl game. And we're over here acting like Saban is post-2010 suicidal Floridian Mack Brown or Bobby Bowden running on dementia fumes at FSU. I get that they are losing a ton off of what was supposed to be one of, if not, their most talented team ever and they have major questions at QB, but their last five recruiting classes were ranked 1, 2, 1, 2 and 1. They will still out talent us across the board.

At every other program in the country, replacing both coordinators would be viewed as a major red flag but let's be honest... Golding should have been shitcanned 2-3 years ago and BoB was average, at best. Whoever they get will almost certainly be upgrades at both positions. They will still be the best team on our schedule next year by a mile. I don't see how anybody could watch us trip over our own dicks at Tech and OSU, get manhandled by TCU and Washington, and see how up and down Ewers was, and think that we are anything other than a huge underdog in Tuscaloosa. 

Weren't you one of the guys that told us we always predict mediocrity from ATM and then they never fail to wind up around 8-4? Guys were doing that last spring. 

The easiest answer is that Bama shows up in 2023 and finds a way to go 14-1 because because because Nick Saban. Sure. Everything is the same until it isn't.

Florida State finished in the top 5 of the AP from 1987-2000. 14 straight years, 2 national titles, they played directly for 3 more, finishing 3rd each time, and then also finished two other seasons ranked #2 as runner-up. Bowden finished that 2000 season at age 71. 

The following season, FSU opened the 2001 slate ranked #6 and started off 2-0. "Florida State just keeps on rolling" said every forum poster and talking head in the media. Then they got the absolute shit stomped out of them by UNC and wound up finishing the season 8-4, ranked 15. FSU never finished a season ranked in the top 10 again under Bowden, aged 72-81 and then he retired. 

Those FSU teams were built with some the best recruiting classes of all time, almost all of which were ranked in the top 5 or better, straight through into the 2000s on that end. They had one class with like 11 guys in it, with a sky high average per recruit, that didn't have enough guys to be ranked high, simply because their roster attrition was so low. 

That 2000 FSU team lost the majority of its starters, including its Heisman winning QB and numerous defensive stars. 

I'm not willing to bet you or anyone else that Bama is going 8-5 in 2023. That said, I will be in Vegas this summer, and they'll have opened with a win total of 10.5 in the regular season. I will be putting $1000 on the under.

When cracks start to appear, change can happen fast. They're no longer playing a game off the field in which there's only a few other players competing for the nation's elite guys in the same bag money way that they are. Saban no longer has that competitive advantage, he's getting old, and he's got massive staff turnover, yet again.

Guys that cover recruiting for a living would tell you offline that, sure, Bama keeps rolling, but they're not getting their pick of the dynamic playmakers in the past few classes that they've grown accustomed to previously. Texas had the #2 class in 2010, and a rolling 5 year recruiting ranking average of 4.8. Bama's last 5 have an average ranking of 1.4. If you don't think there's been some halo-effecting lately for them the way there was at that point for Texas, cool. That's an easy position to take, no doubt.

[closetojumping 62698]

16 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:

Are the same people saying both things? That would be a little incongruous. 

Not a single person anywhere on this board has seriously stated "At Bama should be a game we win." and 2147 is being disingenuous throwing that notion out there.

[Hornlover 8830]

9 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Guys that cover recruiting for a living would tell you offline that, sure, Bama keeps rolling, but they're not getting their pick of the dynamic playmakers in the past few classes that they've grown accustomed to previously. Texas had the #2 class in 2010, and a rolling 5 year recruiting ranking average of 4.8. Bama's last 5 have an average ranking of 1.4. If you don't think there's been some halo-effecting lately for them the way there was at that point for Texas, cool. That's an easy position to take, no doubt.

I think we're going to find out that this is very much the case. They're getting the benefit of the doubt for a lot their recruits - "If Bama is taking this guy, then he must be a 5-star", which artificially inflates their rankings.

They're also losing a fair number of players in the portal. Look at their 2021 #1 overall class. 

#2 Tommy Brockermeyer
#7 Camar Wheaton
#8 Agiye Hall
#9 Jojo Earle

...

They are still a damned good football team, but I can definitely see some regression.
 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Hornlover

[texifornia 56946]

https://247sports.com/Player/Caleb-Moore-46138575/

[Magus Ossis 2799]

Their recruiting rankings are undoubtedly getting some "Bama shine" from the 9.95ers, but I am not entirely convinced that Bama has hit the inflection point yet. I also don't know whether Saban is constitutionally capable of acknowledging that the game he has played and won for so long is not going to be there for him in this age of NIL. If he has an eye for his legacy, he will throw everything into one last hoorah and try to go out having broken UGA's streak and won one last NC. He might well lose several games, but his toughest OOC game is us on his own field. He also gets LSU and other UT at home. If we do not pull the upset, he may well roll into the CCG so far up in the rankings that, like TCU this year, he is almost guaranteed a playoff spot before he even takes the field.

[Hookem2147 21235]

31 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Not a single person anywhere on this board has seriously stated "At Bama should be a game we win." and 2147 is being disingenuous throwing that notion out there.

Not sure if this poster counts, but...

18 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I said in a tirade against Sark that Bama is very beatable and a game we should win on our road to a 10+ win season. 

 

[Magus Ossis 2799]

1 minute ago, Hookem2147 said:

Not sure if this poster counts, but...

 

Hahaha not sure BO&W represents many other posters on this board.

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

1 minute ago, Hookem2147 said:

Not sure if this poster counts, but...

 

That feels more like a prediction of failure because Sarkisian is a boat anchor than a prediction of a win, though. 

[HenryJames 66049]

At Bama should be a game we win.

[derpyhorndog 2557]

Think I found Sark's helicopter. If I'm right, he's now at Peachtree HS in Longview (Dealyn Evans?).

[TheContractor 70]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Weren't you one of the guys that told us we always predict mediocrity from ATM and then they never fail to wind up around 8-4? Guys were doing that last spring. 

The easiest answer is that Bama shows up in 2023 and finds a way to go 14-1 because because because Nick Saban. Sure. Everything is the same until it isn't.

Florida State finished in the top 5 of the AP from 1987-2000. 14 straight years, 2 national titles, they played directly for 3 more, finishing 3rd each time, and then also finished two other seasons ranked #2 as runner-up. Bowden finished that 2000 season at age 71. 

The following season, FSU opened the 2001 slate ranked #6 and started off 2-0. "Florida State just keeps on rolling" said every forum poster and talking head in the media. Then they got the absolute shit stomped out of them by UNC and wound up finishing the season 8-4, ranked 15. FSU never finished a season ranked in the top 10 again under Bowden, aged 72-81 and then he retired. 

Those FSU teams were built with some the best recruiting classes of all time, almost all of which were ranked in the top 5 or better, straight through into the 2000s on that end. They had one class with like 11 guys in it, with a sky high average per recruit, that didn't have enough guys to be ranked high, simply because their roster attrition was so low. 

That 2000 FSU team lost the majority of its starters, including its Heisman winning QB and numerous defensive stars. 

I'm not willing to bet you or anyone else that Bama is going 8-5 in 2023. That said, I will be in Vegas this summer, and they'll have opened with a win total of 10.5 in the regular season. I will be putting $1000 on the under.

When cracks start to appear, change can happen fast. They're no longer playing a game off the field in which there's only a few other players competing for the nation's elite guys in the same bag money way that they are. Saban no longer has that competitive advantage, he's getting old, and he's got massive staff turnover, yet again.

Guys that cover recruiting for a living would tell you offline that, sure, Bama keeps rolling, but they're not getting their pick of the dynamic playmakers in the past few classes that they've grown accustomed to previously. Texas had the #2 class in 2010, and a rolling 5 year recruiting ranking average of 4.8. Bama's last 5 have an average ranking of 1.4. If you don't think there's been some halo-effecting lately for them the way there was at that point for Texas, cool. That's an easy position to take, no doubt.

I love the under 10.5 regular season for Bama but ill wait until mid Aug to make that bet. Long time. 
i remember that about FSU. They were great in the 90s 

[IDIOTsavant 8483]

8 minutes ago, derpyhorndog said:

Think I found Sark's helicopter. If I'm right, he's now at Peachtree HS in Longview (Dealyn Evans?).

 

[derpyhorndog 2557]

4 minutes ago, IDIOTsavant said:

 

Derp. Pine Tree.

[HenryJames 66049]

22 minutes ago, derpyhorndog said:

(Dealyn Evans?)

[Vertigo 20285]

26 minutes ago, derpyhorndog said:

Think I found Sark's helicopter. If I'm right, he's now at Peachtree HS in Longview (Dealyn Evans?).

Derpy needs to start a coach tracking/coaching search website. 

Jimbo is killing himself down in Florida? Then why did his plane fly to Cancun this week?

Edited January 26, 2023 by Vertigo

[HtownHorn 14679]

4 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Bama lost a grand total of two games last season by a combined 4 points, both on last second scores on the road, and finished 5th in the country after annihilating K-State in their bowl game. And we're over here acting like Saban is post-2010 suicidal Floridian Mack Brown or Bobby Bowden running on dementia fumes at FSU. I get that they are losing a ton off of what was supposed to be one of, if not, their most talented team ever and they have major questions at QB, but their last five recruiting classes were ranked 1, 2, 1, 2 and 1. They will still out talent us across the board.

At every other program in the country, replacing both coordinators would be viewed as a major red flag but let's be honest... Golding should have been shitcanned 2-3 years ago and BoB was average, at best. Whoever they get will almost certainly be upgrades at both positions. They will still be the best team on our schedule next year by a mile. I don't see how anybody could watch us trip over our own dicks at Tech and OSU, get manhandled by TCU and Washington, and see how up and down Ewers was, and think that we are anything other than a huge underdog in Tuscaloosa. 

They have lost a lot of those guys to the portal. Hell, TCU took 3-4 of busted high 4 and 5 stars this portal season alone. This is very similar to late term Mack Brown, who was still getting a lot of high 4 and 5 stars, with absolutely high bust rates. There is a reason Saban has to use the portal so much, because he is not developing at the same rate as he was before. Which happens when you have a lot of coaching turnover, just like Mack did.

[texifornia 56946]

https://247sports.com/player/terry-bussey-46117029/

[Atticus 3973]

2 hours ago, Magus Ossis said:

Their recruiting rankings are undoubtedly getting some "Bama shine" from the 9.95ers, but I am not entirely convinced that Bama has hit the inflection point yet. I also don't know whether Saban is constitutionally capable of acknowledging that the game he has played and won for so long is not going to be there for him in this age of NIL. If he has an eye for his legacy, he will throw everything into one last hoorah and try to go out having broken UGA's streak and won one last NC. He might well lose several games, but his toughest OOC game is us on his own field. He also gets LSU and other UT at home. If we do not pull the upset, he may well roll into the CCG so far up in the rankings that, like TCU this year, he is almost guaranteed a playoff spot before he even takes the field.

Jalen Hale was dropping in the rankings, committed to Bama, then somehow jumped back into a borderline 5-star.

[Post Oak 20213]

36 minutes ago, texifornia said:

https://247sports.com/player/terry-bussey-46117029/

Was wondering what Texas thought of him. Mr. Football in Texas last year FWIW

[Hornius Emeritus 12460]

Check out the highlight film of Refugio's Ernest Campbell.  He ran a 10.32 hundred meters as a sophomore to win state. That's faster than Marquise Goodwin's time as a sophomore (10.38)   The problem is that Ernest is only 5'8", 145 .lbs right now.   Nevertheless, he's lightning in a bottle. Holy smokes. That second play, the one that begins at 18 seconds, is ridiculous.


https://www.hudl.com/video/3/14954940/63a4e27f4205b80f1c17cea3






 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18549]

5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Weren't you one of the guys that told us we always predict mediocrity from ATM and then they never fail to wind up around 8-4? Guys were doing that last spring. 

The easiest answer is that Bama shows up in 2023 and finds a way to go 14-1 because because because Nick Saban. Sure. Everything is the same until it isn't.

Florida State finished in the top 5 of the AP from 1987-2000. 14 straight years, 2 national titles, they played directly for 3 more, finishing 3rd each time, and then also finished two other seasons ranked #2 as runner-up. Bowden finished that 2000 season at age 71. 

The following season, FSU opened the 2001 slate ranked #6 and started off 2-0. "Florida State just keeps on rolling" said every forum poster and talking head in the media. Then they got the absolute shit stomped out of them by UNC and wound up finishing the season 8-4, ranked 15. FSU never finished a season ranked in the top 10 again under Bowden, aged 72-81 and then he retired. 

Those FSU teams were built with some the best recruiting classes of all time, almost all of which were ranked in the top 5 or better, straight through into the 2000s on that end. They had one class with like 11 guys in it, with a sky high average per recruit, that didn't have enough guys to be ranked high, simply because their roster attrition was so low. 

That 2000 FSU team lost the majority of its starters, including its Heisman winning QB and numerous defensive stars. 

I'm not willing to bet you or anyone else that Bama is going 8-5 in 2023. That said, I will be in Vegas this summer, and they'll have opened with a win total of 10.5 in the regular season. I will be putting $1000 on the under.

When cracks start to appear, change can happen fast. They're no longer playing a game off the field in which there's only a few other players competing for the nation's elite guys in the same bag money way that they are. Saban no longer has that competitive advantage, he's getting old, and he's got massive staff turnover, yet again.

Guys that cover recruiting for a living would tell you offline that, sure, Bama keeps rolling, but they're not getting their pick of the dynamic playmakers in the past few classes that they've grown accustomed to previously. Texas had the #2 class in 2010, and a rolling 5 year recruiting ranking average of 4.8. Bama's last 5 have an average ranking of 1.4. If you don't think there's been some halo-effecting lately for them the way there was at that point for Texas, cool. That's an easy position to take, no doubt.

There are people who blindly pick ATM to suck each year no matter what. Eventually, they were going to be correct. Broken clocks and all. I guess the same will be true of Bama/Saban at some point. I'm just not quite there yet in consideration that they were two plays from going undefeated. Conversely, they were probably two more plays from losing four games but that's kinda how it goes with college football. A missed FG here. A walk off two point conversion in OT there, and you're suddenly a crumbling dynasty.

I definitely get the Bowden analogy but Saban is a much better football man than Bowden ever was. Bowden's biggest mistake was his mismanagement of his coaching staff. That 2001 season that you reference just happened to coincide with his OC Mark Richt leaving for Georgia and Bobby Bowden replacing him with **checks notes** his dipshit son, Jeff. Mickey Andrews was in place for too long and had become obsolete. Chuck Amato, who by all accounts was actually running their defense and not Andrews, also left around the same time and they never recovered on either side of the ball. I just don't see Saban making those same mistakes. See his processing of BoB and Golding as Exhibit 1. 

With regard to their recruiting... you may very well be correct. We're just going to have to wait and see. They don't look as stout at virtually every position group on offense as they were a couple of years ago. I know less about the defense. It's going to be interesting to see who Saban hires.

[derpyhorndog 2557]

3 hours ago, derpyhorndog said:

Think I found Sark's helicopter. If I'm right, he's now at Pine Tree HS in Longview (Dealyn Evans?).

Slow work day, so update for the two people waiting with bated breath. The choppa left Longview and seems to have made a stop in the Jasper area. The site I use to track lost coverage for a stretch, so fairly certain about that but had to read tea leaves a bit. Maybe visiting Tyanthony Smith?

It's now up again and on trajectory for Houston, which is where it left from this morning and where we know Sark was early in the week (visiting some Humble HS). 

Anyways, curious for shits and gigs to see if there are any other Twitter sightings of Sark/Gideon in Longview or Jasper today. 

Edited January 26, 2023 by derpyhorndog

[texifornia 56946]

8 minutes ago, derpyhorndog said:

Slow work day, so update for the two people waiting with bated breath. The choppa left Longview and seems to have made a stop in the Jasper area. The site I use to track lost coverage for a stretch, so fairly certain about that but had to read tea leaves a bit. Maybe visiting Tyanthony Smith?

It's now up again and on trajectory for Houston, which is where it left from this morning and where we know Sark was early in the week (visiting some Humble HS). 

Anyways, curious for shits and gigs to see if there are any other Twitter sightings of Sark/Gideon in Longview or Jasper today. 

I'd imagine, since he was criss-crossing ETX, that he stopped at Timpson and handed Bussey his offer personally.

Edited January 26, 2023 by texifornia

[derpyhorndog 2557]

3 minutes ago, texifornia said:

I'd imagine, since he was criss-crossing ETX, that he stopped at Timpson and handed Bussey his offer personally.

Now that you say it...I think you're on to something. Today's flight path went right over Timpson, it was just one of the stretches where the site had spotty coverage/data on the chopper. Digging into the time stamps from the points it popped in and out of coverage, it made a roughly 30 minute stop during that stretch over Timpson.

Interesting. Screencap below for those curious. Timpson is in the red handdrawn circle. Lines that are dashed black-and-orange are where coverage/date was lost (solid orange means consistent coverage).

Spoiler