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Texas Recruiting Notes 2024: Bags Don't Beat Bankrolls

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RGBIII
RGBIII

Finally can tell my aggy story.    Have a good insight into this kids recruitment and I’m still laughing about his visit to aggy. Dude gets his player host (I’ll let y’all find who that is) and

closetojumping
closetojumping

How do you think this is helpful? Not being a jerk, just asking y'all to keep your shit together and use common sense. In any event, I know for a fact that nothing ever happens with Texas until a

closetojumping
closetojumping

He could have if he isn't. Play devil's advocate and tell us why you feel about this guy's overall approach to his recruitment and how that either translates to the next level or doesn't matter.

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Duane Moore

Duane Moore 5249

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

I’ll be a little more specific and if it doesn’t help you, it’s at least illustrative to others who aren’t imbeciles. $250-$750k in the bag game was annually competitive. LSU was rarely on the high side of that. Bama, Georgia, Clemson, OSU, and occasional interlopers like Auburn could usually play to the higher side. Then the 2022 cycle happened. ATM went 4-5x high side of that. Hence the aftermath from all parties and angles, much to this board’s entertainment. Meanwhile, NIL unfolded and people with plans started going to work. The landscape today for a roster when playing poker at the big boy table is trending towards 8 figures. The ATM shit from the 2022 cycle is now what gets programs into the arena for a normal top 10 recruiting and portal cycle. 

Now if you think LSU is able to make that work, you do you. To everyone else, that isn’t what’s happening. What I said is happening is happening. They’re little better off than when the bag game was being played. So are others that I already mentioned. I asked a friend inside the inner circle at Bama if they could match $4-5M per cycle in recruiting against the market. They gave a long pause and then simply said “there’s no fucking way.” And then, time passes, and all Nick Saban does is beg and plead with authorities and the media about NIL. Tough luck, little man. 

Of course getting guys into the NFL matters. Of course conferences matter. Of course brand and tradition matter. Of course coaching brand and history matters. That’s why Bama isn’t in the toilet. That’s also why Oregon isn’t in danger of signing a top 3 class. But things are shifting, bit by little bit, against Bama, LSU and Clemson, among others. I think Bama fractures this season the way FSU suddenly did in early 2000’s but for more complicated reasons with Bama. 

It’s info like this that makes wading through pages of off-season bullshit worthwhile. Thank you

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20332

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19 minutes ago, Grimas said:

Maybe it's just me but my first thought would have been "get this crap off my bed"...

I would love to see a recruit come into his room and just turn the comforter with all of the swag over in the floor and just start jumping on the bed. 

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satyanash

satyanash 14632

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Ian Boyd: How to evaluate Texas' recruiting in 2024

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There’s a bit of negative news out there currently for Texas in the 2024 recruiting cycle. The Longhorns seem to be fading in the Micah Hudson recruitment and aren’t exactly running away from the competition in the chase for Colin Simmons. It is a bit early to make any definitive calls. Around this time in 2022 it looked like Texas was going to whiff on several key recruitments like Kelvin Banks and Cameron Williams only to reverse those trends in December. However, it is a good time to try and talk big picture about what constitutes a winning recruiting class. The class rankings are fun, easy ways to compare and contrast program success, but they are devoid of nuance or context. I have a few other key factors to consider which can offer more context for evaluating a recruiting class.

Key 1: Recruiting to need

Something recruiting rankings can be potentially very helpful in evaluating is how well a program is filling their coffers with the sorts of players they need to execute their vision. Those needs vary from program to program based on system/scheme, current roster, and positional rooms. A spread team needs to routinely bring in quality wide receivers, a power team needs numbers in the tight end room, a team with a heavy passing focus needs to maintain quality prospects in the quarterback room, etc. It was important for Gary Patterson to ensure good athletes with flexible frames were pouring into Fort Worth to fill out safety, linebacker, and defensive end. It’s important for Matt Campbell to have hard-nosed, mid-sized kids coming in to grow into linebackers, tight ends, and linemen.

For a school like Texas, health means a steady stream of 4-stars and high 3-stars at every position who can guarantee a good chance of fielding a full two-deep of guys who can execute the schemes at an average or above average level. If they do that, they’re going to be formidable every season. In the 2024 cycle Texas needs volume at wide receiver, tight end, defensive tackle, and cornerback to main healthy numbers in those position rooms. Signing a 5-star at any position is always great, but Texas stays in good shape if they simply load up on good prospects in volume.

Key 2: Blue blood privilege

If you’re read me for a while you know I think there are five (I recently added one) position groups where recruiting elite athletes really matters. I’d rank them, in order of significance, as wide receiver, defensive tackle, cornerback, offensive tackle, and Edge.

Aside from defensive tackle, I call those the “space force” positions where your players are routinely deployed in high leverage, 1-on-1 matchups in space which have an outsized impact on the outcomes of games. You can get by with players inside who are big, tough, strong, smart, but not necessarily elite athletically. In the space force positions, lesser athletes can’t be covered up and the elite teams can stand out.

Defensive tackles don’t play in space but they qualify for similar reasons as the left tackle. There are only so many, truly athletic 300+ pound football players and the schools who have them on the D-line gain a monstrous advantage over everyone else. If you’re a school like Texas and you aren’t signing either elite prospects or a serious volume of high upside prospects at these five positions, you’re foregoing “blue blood privilege” in recruiting, rankings be damned. Signing a 5-star at one of these positions just means more.

Key 3: Opportunity costs

Fielding a potentially elite, 5-star wideout like Micah Hudson projects to be is the most valuable thing you can do from a talent input perspective as a program. The modern game rewards teams who have receivers who can consistently get open, even defenses like Georgia can’t do much about it as their repeat National Championship run actually demonstrates. Alabama had them dead to rights in 2021 until their NFL wideout tandem of Jameson Williams and John Metchie both went down. Ohio State nearly took them down in 2022 thanks to Marvin Harrison Jr and might have finished the job had Harrison not been knocked out (literally).

However, recruiting topnotch wideouts has never been easier. Even if Texas misses on a guy like Hudson in 2024, the greater landscape and state of Texas in particular is producing a lot of very promising receivers. Additionally, you can always do a redraft of the lower level programs if your own recruiting takes didn’t pan out and collect a potentially elite wideout through the transfer portal. The opportunity cost of missing out on Micah Hudson is remarkably low given his quality as a talent.

D-line recruiting is different. Texas’ Edge position probably doesn’t need Colin Simmons to produce winning play. The last few classes already brought in Ethan Burke, Justice Finkley, Colton Vasek, Billy Walton, Tausili Akana, and perhaps Derion Gullette and Anthony Hill to man those positions in the coming years. Texas is going to find multiple good players from that group, they don’t need Simmons to execute their vision on defense. But if they don’t have him, they will probably miss out on a transcendent talent who impacts games in a way other players simply cannot do. Unlike with Hudson, the odds of making up for it later on in the portal are pretty low.

The biggest questions for Texas’ 2024 class

Texas has a need, an opportunity, and an opening that should define the 2024 class and whether it’s successful or not. They NEED to add a tight end who can develop into a flex/receiving weapon and partner with Arch Manning down the line. Texas isn’t going to get bang for their buck in the eventual Manning era unless they can deploy him in a pro-style fashion which involves having a matchup weapon (like Ja’Tavion Sanders) in the passing game at tight end. Without a more sure-thing 5-star like Duce Robinson, they’ll need to address the need with a little bit of volume or the transfer portal.

They have an OPPORTUNITY to get a transcendent talent who truly impacts the game in a way a good or above average player cannot in the Simmons recruitment and perhaps one or two others. But the blue blood privilege angle stands out the most. Texas needs high quality play at defensive tackle and there isn’t a transcendent talent within the state for whom they’re really in the hunt so they’re going to need a good volume of high upside players. They won’t be able to make up for it in the portal later either, Trill Carter is about the best you can hope for in D-line portal recruiting. True 300+ pound impact athletes play early and don’t transfer for fresh opportunities very often. A high class ranking with a freshman group filled with highly rated blue chips is always great, but those are the angles I’ll be using to evaluate whether this cycle is treading water, a step back, or a step forward.

 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14780

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20 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Ian Boyd: How to evaluate Texas' recruiting in 2024

 

Why would you post that here? The dude barely understands football, and knows absolutely fucking nothing about recruiting, which Bobby says every time they talk about recruiting and he's there.

Edited by HtownHorn
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TommyGufano

TommyGufano 6021

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10 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Why would you post that here? The dude barely understands football, and knows absolutely fucking nothing about recruiting, which Bobby says every time they talk about recruiting and he's there.

I wish he'd say that part as well.

Listened to him today saying Harold Perkins wouldn't really make that much of a difference at Texas

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48175

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Ian Boyd: How to evaluate Texas' recruiting in 2024

 

Jesus fucking Christ. This is some Mailbox level insouciance. 
 

Taking Ian Boyd’s X’s and O’s Write ups seriously is like going to Dr Phil for a legit mental health issue. Going to Ian Boyd for recruiting insight is like asking an Iranian Cleric advice in how to raise a strong, independent woman. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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