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Texas Recruiting Notes 2024: Bags Don't Beat Bankrolls

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RGBIII
RGBIII

Finally can tell my aggy story.    Have a good insight into this kids recruitment and I’m still laughing about his visit to aggy. Dude gets his player host (I’ll let y’all find who that is) and

closetojumping
closetojumping

How do you think this is helpful? Not being a jerk, just asking y'all to keep your shit together and use common sense. In any event, I know for a fact that nothing ever happens with Texas until a

closetojumping
closetojumping

He could have if he isn't. Play devil's advocate and tell us why you feel about this guy's overall approach to his recruitment and how that either translates to the next level or doesn't matter.

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satyanash

satyanash 14,581

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23 hours ago, Codaxx said:

Texas is forced to take 4 DTs this class, because of the disaster that IDL recruiting has been. 

2023:

Mitchell-359 pounds

2022:

Bledsoe - 266 pounds

Ross - 256 pounds

Bryant - 300 pounds

Swanson- 259 pounts

2021:

Murphy- 300 punds

The story is not over on Bledsoe. HE still could put on the weight and is very talented. Ross and Swanson seem like bad takes at IDL. Last 3 classes have yielded only 3 guys with the necessary size to contribute to this date. 

2022 was frustrating. At a time when we really needed to load up at DT, the in-state group was weak. We sent out 32 DL offers, just four of which went to in-state recruits. And of course A&M chose to spend like nuts on DL that cycle and grab the biggest fish.

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texifornia

texifornia 57,036

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2 minutes ago, satyanash said:

2022 was frustrating. At a time when we really needed to load up at DT, the in-state group was weak. We sent out 32 DL offers, just four of which went to in-state recruits. And of course A&M chose to spend like nuts on DL that cycle and grab the biggest fish.

satya is BACK baby!

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satyanash

satyanash 14,581

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Gerry Hamilton: Texas Longhorns Ten Most Wanted

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The Texas Longhorns have ascended to the No. 17 ranked class since the start of June. Steve Sarkisian and staff have added 11 commitments since June 17, including eight On3 Industry Ranking four-stars. With the class having taken shape, now it gets down to just how high the class will finish in the class rankings come December. If Texas is to have a shot at signing a third straight top-five class, the staff will have to hit on a number of top targets remaining. Inside Texas takes a look at the Ten Most Wanted recruits remaining on the board ahead of scheduled decisions later this week.

1. Five-star EDGE Colin Simmons, Duncanville (Texas) High
The Longhorns are in a national fight with a close to home feel for the No. 1 ranked EDGE prospect in the 2024 cycle. Texas became the favorite with a spring run that continued with a very impactful official visit June 23-25. While Simmons has made official visits to Miami, Oregon and SMU, LSU and Texas A&M remain the schools considered the biggest threat to Texas. Simmons is currently scheduled to be at Texas A&M the last weekend of July.

2. Five-star offensive tackle Brandon Baker, Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei
Texas, Ohio State and Oregon are battling it out for the No. 1 ranked offensive tackle in the cycle. Oregon was once thought to be the heavy favorite. Fast forward to July, and Oregon has slipped in the fight with the Longhorns and Buckeyes. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian and offensive line coach Kyle Flood are scheduled to have a Zoom call with Baker and family Tuesday night. A late July or August decision is a possibility.

3. Five-star cornerback Kobe Black, Waco (Texas) Connally
The five-star Texan continues to be a Texas lean with a timeline that could be prior to his senior season, or carry into the fall. LSU has been considered the biggest threat to Texas, and the Tigers have an early September official visit scheduled. Where Black visits the last weekend of July is of note. Texas A&M is making a big push to get a visit that weekend.

4. Five-star Ryan Wingo, Saint Louis (Mo.) University
Wingo is the top receiver on the board for the Longhorns. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has left zero doubt with Wingo and family how much he is coveted by the Horns. Sarkisian, Arch Manning and Chris Jackson are all on the case for Texas. The competition for Wingo is coming from Missouri, Tennessee, Michigan and Georgia. Wingo told Inside Texas late last week that a decision could be as late as December. We believe that timeline could move up.

5. Five-star Dominick McKinley, Lafayette (La.) Acadiana
The recruitment of McKinley is currently scheduled to go until the Under Armour All-America Game in early January 2024. That is subject to change, of course. Coming out of June official visits, Texas and Oklahoma were considered the top two over Texas A&M, LSU and possibly Alabama. The football and academic combination are key factors for both Texas and Texas A&M in this recruitment. Texas defensive line coach Bo Davis has also built a solid relationship with McKinley’s family. For the Sooners, Todd Bates has done a very good job with McKinley.

6. Four-star cornerback Corian Gipson, Lancaster (Texas) High
The 4-star defensive back will announce his decision July 22 at Lancaster High with Texas continuing to be favored over Clemson with Ohio State not expected to be the choice. The 6-foot-1, 175-pounder has not informed Texas or Clemson of his decision, as of late last weekend.

7. Four-star D’Antre Robinson, DL, Orlando (Fla.) Jones
The 6-foot-3, 315-pound defensive tackle will announce his decision July 21 with the Longhorns favored over Florida. Alabama and Ohio State round out the top four. The work of Bo Davis, Tashard Choice, Cedric Baxter Jr. and Payton Kirkland are huge positives for the Longhorns. Texas being set to lose two or three interior defensive linemen is also working in the Horns’ favor. Robinson’s sister lives in the Arlington area too.

8. Four-star Zina Umeozulu, Allen (Texas) High
The younger brother of Texas left guard Neto Umeozulu is considered a lean to Texas, but has slowed the process down a little this month. At the beginning of the month, it appeared a commitment could be imminent. Oklahoma and Texas A&M remain in the fight for the upside EDGE.

9. Four-star T.J. Lindsey, DL, Bryant (Ark.) IMG Academy
Texas and Auburn are battling it out for the 6-foot-4, 268-pounder with Miami and Texas still swinging away. A decision is possible prior to reporting to IMG Academy July 20. If not, last weekend in July visits to Texas and Auburn are scheduled.

10. Four-star cornerback Wardell Mack, Marrero (La.) John Ehret
The Pelican State prospect released a top four of Texas, Florida, Florida State and LSU Monday. In speaking to a source close to the recruitment Monday evening, there is a good chance the 6-foot-0, 180-pound defensive back will make a commitment in late July or early August. The Longhorns are considered the favorites headed into the last half of the month. Mack making a last weekend July visit to Florida isn’t out of the question.

 

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29,957

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10 hours ago, destroya said:

And also, no one really gives a fuck about a&m. They’ll raise their profile every few years (johnnys heisman, poaching jimbo, the 2022 recruiting class) but they’re just as often laughed at (5-7, jimbos contract, kyler and kyle transferring in the same off season). Ultimately, they only matter to the extent they provide fodder for the national cfb media. 

Agreed. We're not doing well and it's, "when will Texas be Texas again." There's criticism of the program, some of which is unfair, but that's how it goes for everyone. 

When A&M is being A&M, they draw attention as you describe in rare occasions where they are ranked high. When they are down, nobody is asking when they will be A&M again. The question is always, "why can't A&M rise from mediocrity with all they have going for them?" 

Par for Texas is relevance nationally. Par for A&M is irrelevance nationally although they assume otherwise.

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Codaxx

Codaxx 5,812

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4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The media has a weird boner for turning Tech into the premier program of the new Big 12. 

They need to find someone that can carry the torch in the Big 12. Tech makes about as much sense as anyone in the Big 12. 

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18,550

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“If you ask any of our kids, they’re gonna tell you this: ‘We’ll win the Big 12 before Texas leaves the Big 12,’” McGuire said. “So, obviously, our plan is to win it this year.”

Texas has always had the target on its back as everybody's biggest game of the season. I didn't really think about it until now, but this is the last time ever that those bottom feeders get a shot at the big boss. Every one of those assholes is going to be going for it on fourth down 20 times a game like Tech did last year, fake punts, trick plays, running schemes that they haven't shown on film before. Every team in the conference will be pulling out all the stops in a final desperate act to end the series with a W. Couple that with the conference wanting to stick it to us on the way out the door and this season may be a little rougher than it looks on paper. We can't get out of this conference fast enough.

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Redneck Mutha

Redneck Mutha 8,007

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1 hour ago, Hook1997 said:

I was told all our recruits gets a bump in ranking when they commit by aggy now our pets heads are falling off!   

We are now in the act/scene where the Maroon Kool-Aid Men show up and declare that Jimbo was pissed about last year and is now back to his elite recruiting ways, top recruits are seeing through the sips bullshit, nobody wants to play for Sark and he's only able to sign 3 stars now, the only way the sips can get good players is to play the bag game for players who only want money which is something the no lying, cheating, stealing Texas Aggies never do!   Whoop!

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Tex Pete

Tex Pete 20,426

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2 hours ago, texifornia said:

Mcguire clearly has a lot of friends in the media, and he's good television with his big speeches and kamikaze coaching style.

McGuire is a good (not great) coach. The guys I know who have worked for him love him.

But a coach doesn't have to be great to beat the teams he beat last year. Our coach went full retard and handed the game to Tech by refusing to control the clock at all and letting our defense die on the field. We could have approached that game almost any other way and won.

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Codaxx

Codaxx 5,812

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21 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

McGuire is a good (not great) coach. The guys I know who have worked for him love him.

But a coach doesn't have to be great to beat the teams he beat last year. Our coach went full retard and handed the game to Tech by refusing to control the clock at all and letting our defense die on the field. We could have approached that game almost any other way and won.

Not sure I understand that. Texas ran 24 offensive plays prior to the last possession in the 2nd half. They ran 13 running plays (taking out Card's scramble). That is 13 runs and 11 passing plays. 2 runs went for 5 or more yards (Bijan went for 40 on TD). 10 of the 13 runs went for 2 yards or less. 13 runs for 59 yards sounds solid, but 40 were on 1 play. The other 12 went for 18 yards. Hard to "control the clock", if your run game is getting stuffed at the LOS.

Edited by Codaxx
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texifornia

texifornia 57,036

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23 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

McGuire is a good (not great) coach. The guys I know who have worked for him love him.

But a coach doesn't have to be great to beat the teams he beat last year. Our coach went full retard and handed the game to Tech by refusing to control the clock at all and letting our defense die on the field. We could have approached that game almost any other way and won.

 

4 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Not sure I understand that. Texas ran 24 offensive plays prior to the last possession in the 2nd half. They ran 13 running plays (taking out Card's scramble). That is 13 runs and 11 passing plays. 2 runs went for 5 or more yards (Bijan went for 40 on TD). 10 of the 13 runs went for 2 yards or less. 13 runs for 59 yards sounds solid, but 40 were on 1 play. The other 12 went for 18 yards. Hard to "control the clock", if your run game is getting stuffed at the LOS.

It was literally the least statistically probable win for any team last year. Sometimes Lady Luck just stabs you in the nuts.

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NoName

NoName 16,367

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39 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

McGuire is a good (not great) coach. The guys I know who have worked for him love him.

But a coach doesn't have to be great to beat the teams he beat last year. Our coach went full retard and handed the game to Tech by refusing to control the clock at all and letting our defense die on the field. We could have approached that game almost any other way and won.

the win probability for the game was easily the lowest of any all season long per Bill C's model

Lowest postgame win expectancy in win, 2022 season:

  • Texas Tech > Texas 2%
  • Houston > UTSA 4%
  • Wyo > Colo St 7%
  • Rice > UAB 7%
  • LSU > Auburn 7%
  • Auburn > Mizzou 8%
  • Vandy > Florida 9%
  • Utah St > SJSU 10%
  • Indiana > WKU 10%

FdnharPX0Ag2ZYI?format=jpg&name=4096x409

 

The Texas offense was outstanding - look at that success rate, and the percentiles.

image.png.32f3e303daf22ffc939ac2728a85d027.png

 

here were the Texas drives:

  • 3 pays, 62 yards and a TD (35 yard TD pass to K Robinson)
  • 10 plays, 43 yards and a FG - 2 rushes
  • 3 plays and an INT - 1 rush
  • 6 plays, 69 yards and a TD - 4 rushes in a row then a 39 yard TD pass
  • 12 plays, 82 yards and a TD - 6 rushing attempts, including an 8 yard TD run from Bijan
  • <end of first half>
  • 4 and out - 3 rushes
  • 8 plays, 75 yards, TD (4 rushes, including a 40 yard from Bijan and a 22 yard scramble from Card)
  • 3 and out - 1 rush, 2 pass (incomplete pass, rush, short pass to RoJo on 3rd and 😎
  • 3 and out - 1 rush, 2 passes and a delay of game (rush, incomplete pass, incomplete pass on 3rd and 11)
  • 5 plays and a punt - 4 rushes in a row then an incomplete pass on 3rd and 3
  •  5 plays, 46 yards - 3 passes in 21 seconds and a FG to send it to OT

Texas ran 72 plays averaging 5.9 per play vs TTU running 111 and averaging 4.3

Texas averaged 5.0 yards per rush on 30 rushing attempts. They ran the ball 41% of the time on first down. they ran it 20% of the time on 3rd down. they ran it 50% of the time in the red zone. 35% of their rushes went for 5+ yards. 24% of their rushes went for 1st downs.

Texas averaged 9.2 yards per attempt passing on 30 passing attempts.

they lost when Bijan, who had 16 attempts for 103 yards in the game, lost the 4th fumble of his career in OT.

they were incredibly unlucky. a 50% success rate (BillC vs 48% at GameonPaper) is very, very good.

sometimes you are unlucky. that game was absolutely one of them. winning a game with a 2.4% postgame win expectancy from is basically unheard of.

 

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Tex Pete

Tex Pete 20,426

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28 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Not sure I understand that. Texas ran 24 offensive plays prior to the last possession in the 2nd half. They ran 13 running plays (taking out Card's scramble). That is 13 runs and 11 passing plays. 2 runs went for 5 or more yards (Bijan went for 40 on TD). 10 of the 13 runs went for 2 yards or less. 13 runs for 59 yards sounds solid, but 40 were on 1 play. The other 12 went for 18 yards. Hard to "control the clock", if your run game is getting stuffed at the LOS.

I listened to the game on the radio because I was driving. The crew mentioned that it was very hot on the field at the beginning of the game. Seems like I recall 106.

We scored first in 3 plays taking 1:14. Tech then drove 75 yards in 17 plays, taking 7:55 off the clock and converting on 3rd down twice and 4th down once. They punished our defense. I knew then that we were in trouble.

They ended the game with 10 more minutes of TOP than we had. Our defense couldn't get off the field and our offense couldn't stay on the field, particularly at crucial moments in the game. Tech was 7 of 20 on 3rd down and 6 of 8 on 4th down. 13 of 28 is awful for the defense.

By comparison, we were 3 of 9 on 3rd down and 1 of 2 on 4th down.

This was a problem we had several times during the season, but it was magnified in the Tech game because of the heat. You're welcome to disagree, but the 17 plays on the first drive leads to dead legs.

Edited by Tex Pete
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Park Gothic

Park Gothic 5,048

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8 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

I listened to the game on the radio because I was driving. The crew mentioned that it was very hot on the field at the beginning of the game. Seems like I recall 106.

We scored first in 3 plays taking 1:14. Tech then drove 75 yards in 17 plays, taking 7:55 off the clock and converting on 3rd down twice and 4th down once. They punished our defense. I knew then that we were in trouble.

They ended the game with 10 more minutes of TOP than we had. Our defense couldn't get off the field and our offense couldn't stay on the field, particularly at crucial moments in the game. Tech was 7 of 20 on 3rd down and 6 of 8 on 4th down. 13 of 28 is awful for the defense.

By comparison, we were 3 of 9 on 3rd down and 1 of 2 on 4th down.

This was a problem we had several times during the season, but it was magnified in the Tech game because of the heat.

To add to this and the other great comment from @NoName, our team was young and Lubbock was a hostile environment. For a lot of the freshmen (including 2 on the o-line), it was their first college away game. I was actually surprised at how composed Card seemed after his meltdown in Fayetteville. 

Just wasn't our fucking day. 

Edited by Park Gothic
got my podunk towns mixed up.
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Codaxx

Codaxx 5,812

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12 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

I listened to the game on the radio because I was driving. The crew mentioned that it was very hot on the field at the beginning of the game. Seems like I recall 106.

We scored first in 3 plays taking 1:14. Tech then drove 75 yards in 17 plays, taking 7:55 off the clock and converting on 3rd down twice and 4th down once. They punished our defense. I knew then that we were in trouble.

They ended the game with 10 more minutes of TOP than we had. Our defense couldn't get off the field and our offense couldn't stay on the field, particularly at crucial moments in the game. Tech was 7 of 20 on 3rd down and 6 of 8 on 4th down. 13 of 28 is awful for the defense.

By comparison, we were 3 of 9 on 3rd down and 1 of 2 on 4th down.

This was a problem we had several times during the season, but it was magnified in the Tech game because of the heat. You're welcome to disagree, but the 17 plays on the first drive leads to dead legs.

Your comment was Sark forgot to control the clock in the 2nd half. I countered that the run game efficiency was a disaster in the 2nd half. He didnt forget to run it, he certainly tried. You need efficiency to control the clock. Tech came up to the LOS and dared Card to beat them (didnt help X was out in the 2nd half). Once the run game was stuffed, controlling the clock was not going to happen. This is a story that has been happening for 2 years. Once a defense can force Texas to beat them with the pass, they win. That was been the case for Ewers, Card, and Casey the last 2 years. 

Edited by Codaxx
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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 39,944

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21 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Your comment was Sark forgot to control the clock in the 2nd half. I countered that the run game efficiency was a disaster in the 2nd half. He didnt forget to run it, he certainly tried. You need efficiency to control the clock. Tech came up to the LOS and dared Card to beat them (didnt help X was out in the 2nd half). Once the run game was stuffed, controlling the clock was not going to happen. This is a story that has been happening for 2 years. Once a defense can force Texas to beat them with the pass, they win. That was been the case for Ewers, Card, and Casey the last 2 years. 

Yeah well it don't make a shit, we are beating the fuck outta everyone this year. If you don't think so then you're a bad fan and probably stupid.

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Tex Pete

Tex Pete 20,426

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43 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Your comment was Sark forgot to control the clock in the 2nd half.

I did not say a word about the second half.

 

We shit the bed from the beginning. It was obvious what they were going to do when they jammed the ball down our throats to the tune of 17 plays on their first drive. They used clock, the heat, and mostly short plays to beat the fuck out of our defense. Death by 10,000 paper cuts.

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20,300

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4 hours ago, Js1 said:

The media has a weird boner for turning Tech into the premier program of the new Big 12. 

It is also the offseason, and the media always spends the summer inexplicably hyping a trendy team without any real basis for it. Member when Iowa State was in everyones national title conversation? Member when Texas A&M was going to the playoffs? Member when Penn State was going to challenge for the B1G title? I member. 

Edited by Vertigo
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Delta Charlie

Delta Charlie 150

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57 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Your comment was Sark forgot to control the clock in the 2nd half. I countered that the run game efficiency was a disaster in the 2nd half. He didnt forget to run it, he certainly tried. You need efficiency to control the clock. Tech came up to the LOS and dared Card to beat them (didnt help X was out in the 2nd half). Once the run game was stuffed, controlling the clock was not going to happen. This is a story that has been happening for 2 years. Once a defense can force Texas to beat them with the pass, they win. That was been the case for Ewers, Card, and Casey the last 2 years. 

And despite all of that, if we can just make 1, just 1 4th down stop on any of those they converted, we win that game.  I don't really place the blame on anyone one person or group. Lady Luck was just not on our side that day, my friends.

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Codaxx

Codaxx 5,812

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9 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

I did not say a word about the second half.

 

We shit the bed from the beginning. It was obvious what they were going to do when they jammed the ball down our throats to the tune of 17 plays on their first drive. They used clock, the heat, and mostly short plays to beat the fuck out of our defense. Death by 10,000 paper cuts.

One can only assume you meant the second half, since it was 24-14 in the 1st half. Texas scored on 4 of the 5 possession in the 1st half (interception on the other). Tech scored on 2 of 5. Tech ran 9 plays on their final 3 drives of the half.  Tech converted a 4th and 7 and a 4th and goal from the 4 on the 1st drive. The second drive was a gift from a PI on 3rd and 26. After that Tech ran 9 plays on 3 drives. I watched the game and it did not seem like Tech was jamming the ball down Texas's throat in the first half, but I guess the view was different from the radio. 

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Getafix

Getafix 28,700

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56 minutes ago, satyanash said:

No idea what a 'super blue-chip' is

 

 

image.png.8d5f2e2560dce8c17505e158ea1bd197.png

 

 

F Ketch, but the underlying issue is one I've been concerned about - the dilution of the "4-star" ranking (and 3 star too, I suppose).

- You have around 32 5 stars (currently 34 in the composite)

- 4 stars extend to ~ 448.  So around 414 4 stars.

- The quality of recruits ranked in the 40s/50s/60s is way different from those ranked in the high 300s and low 400s.

 

If the industry could just move to a consistent and reasonable definition, star rankings would once again regain their meaning.  

I don't care about the NFL, but since they do, one option - since they seem to obsess over the NFL - is to divvy up the 256 or so picks (regular plus compensatory) across the star rankings:

- 1st round - 32 recruits - 5 stars

- 2nd/3rd rounds - next 70 ish - 4 stars

- 4th through 7th rounds - (150 ish) - 3 stars

Remainder - 2 or below.

I suppose the risks would be a)  greater likelihood of analysts missing b)  schools bummed over not getting artificially inflated 4/3 stars.  Crap.

 

 

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NoName

NoName 16,367

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31 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

I did not say a word about the second half.

 

We shit the bed from the beginning. It was obvious what they were going to do when they jammed the ball down our throats to the tune of 17 plays on their first drive. They used clock, the heat, and mostly short plays to beat the fuck out of our defense. Death by 10,000 paper cuts.

what are you talking about?

Texas had a winning % of 81% with game on paper when TTU scored their first TD. ESPN had it at 79.4% for Texas.

here is the win prob chart for the whole game from game on paper

image.png.1ff4d830c28c0afd1ad2385ab22d74a5.png

 

ESPN Win Prob:

image.png.edc22fb75e339dd57603016121aedc98.png

TTU averaged 4.8 yards per play and 3.6 yards per rush.

Texas had a 12% success rate advantage, more big plays, and an expected turnover advantage which wins the game ~98% of the time.

 

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Tex Pete

Tex Pete 20,426

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17 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

One can only assume you meant the second half, since it was 24-14 in the 1st half. Texas scored on 4 of the 5 possession in the 1st half (interception on the other). Tech scored on 2 of 5. Tech ran 9 plays on their final 3 drives of the half.  Tech converted a 4th and 7 and a 4th and goal from the 4 on the 1st drive. The second drive was a gift from a PI on 3rd and 26. After that Tech ran 9 plays on 3 drives. I watched the game and it did not seem like Tech was jamming the ball down Texas's throat in the first half, but I guess the view was different from the radio. 

Giving up 17 plays on their first drive when it was 106 was huge. If that one drive had been 7 plays, I think the game would have gone differently. Regardless, we needed to hold the ball longer throughout the game than we did. Alas, we did not. They very deliberately nickel and dimed it down the field and made our defense stay on the field. They didn't just do it via the run game. It's the same shit Kansas State has done to us forever.

 

And again, Sarkisian failed at countering that all too often. It's part of what makes him "7 Win Steve." I hope he coaches smarter this year.

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