Texas Recruiting Notes 2024: Bags Don't Beat Bankrolls

[sidis 9680]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

I don't pay a whole lot of attention to recruiting:  how is NIL's effect shaking out?  When it was announced, the consensus was that schools like Texas, USC and Notre Dame would start to dominate.  It doesn't seem that's happened yet, although 7-5 and 9-3 seasons probably didn't help those other two programs much, either.

That said, ESPN has Oregon's class ranked #3, which might hint at the power of $$$.  Thoughts?

lol, jimmy, this is genuinely akin to someone wandering into the guitar pron thread and saying "so hey guys, what's your take on this whole new thing with guitars plugging in...what do you guys think the impact of this sound like chuck berry is going to be?"

yes, nil has been officially weaponized in an organized fashion and the entrenched superpowers of college football are benefiting greatly.  the disparity between the haves and have nots in their recruiting and transfer hauls is getting significantly greater.  steve sarkisian specifically has been a significant beneficiary of the timing of this change.  but not all blue bloods have equally weaponized it in the same fashion for various reasons...

[jimmyjazz 45231]

1 minute ago, sidis said:

lol, jimmy, this is genuinely akin to someone wandering into the guitar pron thread and saying "so hey guys, what's your take on this whole new thing with guitars plugging in...what do you guys think the impact of this sound like chuck berry is going to be?"

That's not actually similar to what I asked, but OK.

 

Quote

yes, nil has been officially weaponized in an organized fashion and the entrenched superpowers of college football are benefiting greatly.  the disparity between the haves and have nots in their recruiting and transfer hauls is getting significantly greater.  steve sarkisian specifically has been a significant beneficiary of the timing of this change.  but not all blue bloods have equally weaponized it in the same fashion for various reasons...

I specifically recall some people predicting that schools like UGA and 'bama would not be able to keep up.  This doesn't seem to be the case.  I'm just wondering if I'm reading it wrong.

[Doc Daneeka 6768]

I think that if Texas stacks another season or two of wins, player development, and draft picks, the addition of NIL is going to make a lot of teams very, very sad.

[Sgt Hulk 13539]

Goddamnit jimmy 

[BurntOrange&White 38999]

Texas has scratched the surface of NIL according to RGB and CTJ....we have yet to fully unleash what the NIL power could be due to not having full buy in from BMD's. Once that happens...sheeesh.

Edited December 21, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[jimmyjazz 45231]

Just now, Sgt Hulk said:

Goddamnit jimmy 

You're more than welcome to put me on ignore.

 

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Texas has scratched the surface of NIL according to RGB and CTJ....we have let to fully unleash what the NIL power could be due to not having full buy in from BMD's. Once that happens...sheeesh.

Thanks, appreciate it. 

Carry on.

[Texas Flood 1343]

[Bodacious Bevo 3572]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

That's not actually similar to what I asked, but OK.

 

I specifically recall some people predicting that schools like UGA and 'bama would not be able to keep up.  This doesn't seem to be the case.  I'm just wondering if I'm reading it wrong.

How would you know if those questions are similar when you say you don't follow recruiting? You're asking a big question without a known answer due to contracts not being public knowledge. It's a complex topic given all the legal changes for NIL and all the other structural changes in college football. 

[Spaceman Spiff 377]

1 hour ago, sidis said:

taylor hamm says "whaaaa?"

"The tweet is coming from INSIDE THE STALL!"

[jimmyjazz 45231]

1 minute ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

How would you know if those questions are similar when you say you don't follow recruiting? 

Because I was asking a backwards-looking question, not a prediction of the future.  It's OK, we don't need to belabor the point, I got my answer -- Texas hasn't really gotten NIL rolling yet, at least to the degree people expect.

I certainly don't have any reason to question this class.  In his press conference Sark himself said he doesn't pay attention to rankings when evaluating players, and I'm glad that's the case.  (Not that our ranking is bad at all, it appears to be stellar.)

[sidis 9680]

11 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's not actually similar to what I asked, but OK.

 

I specifically recall some people predicting that schools like UGA and 'bama would not be able to keep up.  This doesn't seem to be the case.  I'm just wondering if I'm reading it wrong.

it really is.

uga and bama will absolutely be able to keep up and whoever said that is wrong.  any team with a dedicated fanbase and significant enough sized alumni group that is committed to football success is going to benefit and people in alabama and georgia would rather the dawgs/tide win than eat every day of the week.

however, anyone questioning if texas has benefited from it needs only to look at the 2022 class coming off a 5-7 season and a loss to kansas in sark's first year.  in december and february, we signed the 5th ranked class in the nation and arguably the best oline class in the nation (at the same time that some folks here got a $50K per olineman salary mechanism going)...along with getting the top qb transfer to come from ohio state.  then, after going a disappointing 8-5 in 2022, we signed the number 3 class in the nation.  the fruits of that are just now beginning to be realized.

[Getafix 28364]

 

"Consistent and authentic."

 

 

 

[Wishbone 4725]

4 minutes ago, Getafix said:

 

"Consistent and authentic."

 

 

 

There’s always an uncle aunt.

[jimmyjazz 45231]

3 minutes ago, sidis said:

uga and bama will absolutely be able to keep up and whoever said that is wrong. 

Pretty much what I suspected.  Your point about 5-7 Texas is telling, too.  I recall the early Pancake Factory.

I was walking on west campus the other day and a dude drove by in a white Lambo.  I just had to laugh.

[tokamak 6324]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't pay a whole lot of attention to recruiting:  how is NIL's effect shaking out?  When it was announced, the consensus was that schools like Texas, USC and Notre Dame would start to dominate.  It doesn't seem that's happened yet, although 7-5 and 9-3 seasons probably didn't help those other two programs much, either.

That said, ESPN has Oregon's class ranked #3, which might hint at the power of $$$.  Thoughts?

For the average fan (speaking about myself here), it's pretty clear that NIL is having a big impact. On the flip side, there's a lot about it that is opaque to us as fans. There are a lot of rumors, innuendo, and speculation, and very little public in terms of hard numbers, for obvious reasons.

Here's a (probably incomplete) list of things we're pretty sure we know:

1. NIL is at the forefront of high school recruits' minds. It's openly discussed during visits and so forth. However, the extent to which NIL matters as the deciding factor varies a great deal. There are several 5-star recruitments each year that are pretty much purely NIL-driven. However, there are plenty of others who are still operating on the mindset of finding the right fit and the opportunities will come. For your average 3-star type, they're probably not getting promised much at all, just sold on future opportunities if they perform well.
2. It's assumed that NIL is a bigger deal in the transfer market, at least at the top end where Texas is and should be involved. Guys at smaller programs that show out know that they can improve their situation by jumping into the portal. Small school coaches have started complaining openly about this.
3. There was an initial gold rush associated with NIL with some pretty ridiculous numbers/contracts/promises involved. It looks very likely that the market is already correcting a little bit into something more sustainable.
4. Different programs take very different approaches. Some go for big swings to land a few top prospects but probably aren't doing much for the middle and bottom of the roster. Others are a little more cautious about going all-in for any one player. Careful observation reveals that Texas is probably in this second group.
5. The bag game is still alive and well in certain circumstances. It's probably best to think of bags and legitimate, rule-following NIL as a spectrum, not a binary.
6. Texas BMDs are not yet fully mobilized in a way that us average fans would hope. The reasons boil down to conservatism and concerns about lack of ROI. A relatively small number of people are carrying the weight for Texas right now and it's not sustainable in the long term. It's very easy for us to sit here on a message board and spend other peoples' money.
7. Fan collectives seem like a mixed bag. For example, supposedly Ole Miss's is rolling and coincidentally they have been really active in the portal. Many of them are a complete joke right now. Texas One Fund is off to an OK start but has lots and lots of room to grow.

edit: adding a couple more thoughts to this

• It's clear that we have gained some advantage via NIL so far, but to me it does not seem that Texas' (and programs like it) advantage has been as immediate and decisive as many assumed. I think the reason is point #3 above. Damn near every school has a few donors that can splash out some cash. The question going forward is who can sustain in the long term? A gap between haves (Texas, ND, USC, etc) and have-nots (Wyoming, Wake Forest, etc) appeared immediately. I expect the gap between those true haves and the sorta-haves (Nebraska, Tennessee, Alabama?????, etc) to begin growing.
• My personal opinion, probably not very controversial, is that we are still a long ways from the final form of all this. There are lots of aspects of the college football world in late 2023 that do not look sustainable. I think it's quite possible that the concept of NIL as it is right now will be largely forgotten or irrelevant in 10 years, replaced by a system in which the players get a share of the CFB revenue pie in a much more direct way.

Edited December 21, 2023 by tokamak

[Bodacious Bevo 3572]

30 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Because I was asking a backwards-looking question, not a prediction of the future.  It's OK, we don't need to belabor the point, I got my answer -- Texas hasn't really gotten NIL rolling yet, at least to the degree people expect.

I certainly don't have any reason to question this class.  In his press conference Sark himself said he doesn't pay attention to rankings when evaluating players, and I'm glad that's the case.  (Not that our ranking is bad at all, it appears to be stellar.)

Texas does have NIL rolling though, to the extent that anyone does. We’re trying to expand the donor base due to exhaustion of some of the heavy lifters so far. Fully unleashed just means that there’s still room for growth. 

[PTINS 3422]

7 hours ago, Sgt. Slaughter said:

You boys sure are doing a lot of fucking celebrating for getting 5th place. Are we really satisfied? 

Fuck the rankings; take a look behind the numbers.

Listen to Sark's press conference. He's not done yet. He talks about each players attributes, the character of each person. How they identified a lot of these guys ~ 2 years ago and have watch them work and develop.

We signed 4 guys who have a 3* composite ranking, which pulls our rankings down; a punter, an IOL, and 2 DL.  I value the rankings of Bo Davis & Kyle Flood infinitely higher than anybody else.  They got the guys they wanted very early in the process. Large humans with big frames that can move, that played other sports (BBall or Baseball).  Sark joked about the recruiting guys catching up to his staffs evaluations.

Adding a 3 year starter at DB, from Austin, and a 2 year starter at WR from the portal that bring an ethic and maturity to meld with a stable of new recruits.

Sark talked about the EE's (~16  of 22), getting them on campus early for strength and conditioning. Having enough guys in the spring so the 1's go against the 3's and the 2's against the 4's, at the same time.  

11 hours ago, crash_davis said:

Paraphrasing, he said that he they busted their asses all year with the teams to get to this point and felt bad that they had to get in the portal early to find a home. Sark seems like a damn nice person. 

FIFY.

He said, "It Sucks!!!" Kids having to make a choice early to make sure they have a spot, and not being able to finish with the team they have been an integral part of all year. 

Sark is perfect for Texas. He talked about Jeff Choate, enticing him to leave a HC job at Montana State to be a LB coach at Texas, and starting 5&7.  Choate is the new HC at Nevada, and still coaching for Texas. Sark shared his wisdom on balancing the old and new jobs with Choate, having done it twice.  He talked about Mukuba's HS coach being on the Texas staff, and Chris Gilbert before him. He wished Gilbert a Happy Birthday in the press conference. Sarks people skills, his awareness and attention to detail pegs the meter, and will pay dividends for us over and over.

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Do you think there might be something a bit different about the situation the team is currently in than in years past that might prompt that change?

Yes. Guys who weren't fully on board leaving last year as soon as they could v. guys putting in the work all year, having more and better guys in front of you, and encouraged by the coaches to transfer is much different. 

[Atticus 3895]

I think everyone is an EE outside of Hills, Kibble, Kern, and Wilson

So about 20 new guys coming to campus in January. 

[jimmyjazz 45231]

10 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Yes. Guys who weren't fully on board leaving last year as soon as they could v. guys putting in the work all year, having more and better guys in front of you, and encouraged by the coaches to transfer is much different. 

I'm pretty sure that's not what @gmr548 was alluding to (which was random bowl game VS playoff game).

I also think Bijan and Roschon (among others) were justified in their decision to sit out the Alamo Bowl.  I'm not sure if you're trying to shade them or not, but you shouldn't be.

[mwaadeeb 1147]

15 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Fuck the rankings; take a look behind the numbers.

Listen to Sark's press conference. He's not done yet. He talks about each players attributes, the character of each person. How they identified a lot of these guys ~ 2 years ago and have watch them work and develop.

We signed 4 guys who have a 3* composite ranking, which pulls our rankings down; a punter, an IOL, and 2 DL.  I value the rankings of Bo Davis & Kyle Flood infinitely higher than anybody else.  They got the guys they wanted very early in the process. Large humans with big frames that can move, that played other sports (BBall or Baseball).  Sark joked about the recruiting guys catching up to his staffs evaluations.

Adding a 3 year starter at DB, from Austin, and a 2 year starter at WR from the portal that bring an ethic and maturity to meld with a stable of new recruits.

Sark talked about the EE's (~16  of 22), getting them on campus early for strength and conditioning. Having enough guys in the spring so the 1's go against the 3's and the 2's against the 4's, at the same time.  

FIFY.

He said, "It Sucks!!!" Kids having to make a choice early to make sure they have a spot, and not being able to finish with the team they have been an integral part of all year. 

Sark is perfect for Texas. He talked about Jeff Choate, enticing him to leave a HC job at Montana State to be a LB coach at Texas, and starting 5&7.  Choate is the new HC at Nevada, and still coaching for Texas. Sark shared his wisdom on balancing the old and new jobs with Choate, having done it twice.  He talked about Mukuba's HS coach being on the Texas staff, and Chris Gilbert before him. He wished Gilbert a Happy Birthday in the press conference. Sarks people skills, his awareness and attention to detail pegs the meter, and will pay dividends for us over and over.

Yes. Guys who weren't fully on board leaving last year as soon as they could v. guys putting in the work all year, having more and better guys in front of you, and encouraged by the coaches to transfer is much different. 

I just finished Chernow’s Washington biography. Sark is reminding me of the General / President’s comportment, including the two dicks. 

[NoName 16243]

6 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

I just finished Chernow’s Washington biography. Sark is reminding me of the General / President’s comportment, including the two dicks. 

 

Edited December 21, 2023 by NoName

[Gil Bang 25755]

1 hour ago, Getafix said:

 

"Consistent and authentic."

 

 

 

There's always an aunt.

[ousux 5566]

I don't pay a whole lot of attention to recruiting:  how is NIL's effect shaking out?  When it was announced, the consensus was that schools like Texas, USC and Notre Dame would start to dominate.  It doesn't seem that's happened yet, although 7-5 and 9-3 seasons probably didn't help those other two programs much, either.
That said, ESPN has Oregon's class ranked #3, which might hint at the power of $$$.  Thoughts?

The million different uni combos and exclusive Nike shoes arent quite the rage they used to be but still attractive to many top recruits. I'm sure NIL plays a factor as well, not sure how much though.

[mwaadeeb 1147]

6 minutes ago, NoName said:

 

 

[closetojumping 62010]

4 hours ago, Duane Moore said:

Putting aside the fun of flipping an ATM recruit, how serious should we be about going after Dealyn Evans? Does he live up to the rating he has with the recruiting services? Would he be a good culture fit?

I'll post some thoughts on what was, what is, and what will still be in terms of the 2024 class for Texas and others in a bit. That said, Evans is absolutely above McKinley on Texas' list of priorities. He's a far better culture fit and he's plenty talented. Now that he's serious about Texas, this is a pretty big recruitment. I went from not caring about this guy as simple fodder for ATM's DL roster to now being willing to be really irritated if he finishes and signs with ATM because of the trend in his recruitment.

3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Updated Depth Chart (yes I know Jaden Allen is a CB, not FS, but wanted to save space)

 

I am as skeptical as anyone, but AD Mitchell isn't a foregone conclusion to go to the NFL unless I missed an update. He's under no pressure to do so from his seriously wealthy family.

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't pay a whole lot of attention to recruiting:  how is NIL's effect shaking out?  When it was announced, the consensus was that schools like Texas, USC and Notre Dame would start to dominate.  It doesn't seem that's happened yet, although 7-5 and 9-3 seasons probably didn't help those other two programs much, either.

That said, ESPN has Oregon's class ranked #3, which might hint at the power of $$$.  Thoughts?

One thing that might be more instructive regarding the NIL impact is to look at the top 20 recruits nationally and who they signed with, versus, say the 2015 or 2019 classes. Parity is developing in recruiting, among tiers, and you can see it already impacting outcomes such as the playoffs, or what has happened to programs that have ignored NIL and the landscape shift. Think about Clemson, as an example. 

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Because I was asking a backwards-looking question, not a prediction of the future.  It's OK, we don't need to belabor the point, I got my answer -- Texas hasn't really gotten NIL rolling yet, at least to the degree people expect.

I certainly don't have any reason to question this class.  In his press conference Sark himself said he doesn't pay attention to rankings when evaluating players, and I'm glad that's the case.  (Not that our ranking is bad at all, it appears to be stellar.)

 

1 hour ago, sidis said:

it really is.

uga and bama will absolutely be able to keep up and whoever said that is wrong.  any team with a dedicated fanbase and significant enough sized alumni group that is committed to football success is going to benefit and people in alabama and georgia would rather the dawgs/tide win than eat every day of the week.

however, anyone questioning if texas has benefited from it needs only to look at the 2022 class coming off a 5-7 season and a loss to kansas in sark's first year.  in december and february, we signed the 5th ranked class in the nation and arguably the best oline class in the nation (at the same time that some folks here got a $50K per olineman salary mechanism going)...along with getting the top qb transfer to come from ohio state.  then, after going a disappointing 8-5 in 2022, we signed the number 3 class in the nation.  the fruits of that are just now beginning to be realized.

To be clear, the work will never end on NIL for football. It would take an endowment for the roster of something like $200M for that to go away. The roster is too big and the competitors/money/fervor/eyeballs are too big. 

That considered, the Texas NIL machine for football is rolling along far better than most, even if we're always playing from behind. 

No one predicted Georgia falling behind. I've talked about NIL here since before NIL opened up. Georgia is always going to be a have. The reason for that isn't a rabid and wealthy fanbase. That helps, sure, but the bigger reason is due to corporate density within relevant proximity to the school. 

No one predicted Alabama falling off immediately due to NIL because of their current position on the national landscape. We did discuss them struggling with it compared to Texas, Oregon, USC, Georgia and a few others. They don't have the same kind of money. And they have been impacted by that. They've struggled to keep up and they haven't won as many of the top of the list recruitments as they used to before NIL. 

Schools like LSU have been visibly impacted. They don't have the money to win many of the key battles that they otherwise would when the bag game was king. Clemson is actively denying NIL's existence, and that's harming them. There are other stories like these.

While any competent HC at Texas should always be able to bring in top 10 classes, NIL is fundamental for exceeding that. The current class is underranked both relative to schools that Texas was up against for various players ranked lower than recruits that many powers paid passing attention to, but also due to the fact that Texas did not pursue a highly ranked QB in this cycle and did not take as many players as other programs due to low attrition. Nonetheless, it is top 5 to the public and we are splitting hairs on quality between Texas, Bama, and Georgia. Ohio State is ahead of Texas but they are the Tom Herman fantasy college football team in which they overload on WRs and DBs in every class and almost fully ignore OL and interior DL, which is showing up on the field now when playing quality opponents.

Miami and Oregon are excellent examples of schools that are using a fuckton of money to win recruiting battles. FSU is another example of a school lacking some of the firepower necessary to offset a neighbor's wherewithal.

Anyway, I would expect to see a more diverse field of competitors for the playoffs and titles. For most of a decade, it boiled down to Bama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma and Michigan/LSU every now and then. Generally, you knew who the five teams were that would fill the four team playoff. This season, 20 teams could make arguments for being a contender before the season started and by season's end, there were still 7-8 teams that could do the same. That's NIL and the portal+NIL factoring in significantly. 

 

[Michael Knight 12736]

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't pay a whole lot of attention to recruiting:  how is NIL's effect shaking out?  When it was announced, the consensus was that schools like Texas, USC and Notre Dame would start to dominate.  It doesn't seem that's happened yet, although 7-5 and 9-3 seasons probably didn't help those other two programs much, either.

That said, ESPN has Oregon's class ranked #3, which might hint at the power of $$$.  Thoughts?

[JBJ 3598]

10 hours ago, utfan87 said:

Old news he said this when the portal opened. 

Even older as he let Jaden Alexis stay with the team last year.

There's a difference between a sad but understandable parting vs someone quitting on the team.

[pearlandhorn 3260]

32 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I am as skeptical as anyone, but AD Mitchell isn't a foregone conclusion to go to the NFL unless I missed an update. He's under no pressure to do so from his seriously wealthy family.

[closetojumping 62010]

There is a ton of optimism around this recruiting class as it relates to roster fit from folks that look at this more objectively than we do. Folks think they've done a great job of evaluating. 

Hampton got an upped offer from very little with Bama. "Well, you should sign with them if that's the case."

As it pertains to what's left, McKinley is purely a vanity play. He's a momma's boy that could have graduated early and chose not to because she wanted him to have his senior year. They've asked programs about coaching approaches to addressing performance and how much "yelling" happens at practice. But, for the starfuckers, the guy is a 5 star by the services and it would be a win over LSU and a flip from ATM. Sarkisian wants him, at least.

Evan is higher on the board and likes/loves football a hell of a lot more than McKinley. 

Butler is way more valued than Bussey. If they spend much more time on potention 2024 freshmen after this week, Butler is a more likely expenditure of that effort. 

[BurntOrange&White 38999]

Listening to a lot of interviews from these kids in our 2024 class I get the sense that they’re a very mature bunch, especially with Hampton not being part of it. They already say tidbits of what Sark has been preaching to our team so it appears that is translating to recruiting and the 2024 class being a shoe in culturally 

[Hiphopopotamos 20850]

1 minute ago, pearlandhorn said:

I had to google.  Apparently his dad was a comedian/writer/producer (lists his mother as also in the entertainment industry) who did well enough to leave LA in the early 2000's to move back to Houston to open a Non-profit org for HIV education/prevention.  They still do philanthropy in and around the Houston area.

Dad was at one time homeless and living in Central Park before getting his break as a comedian at the Apollo.  

[Elmer_Fudd 22022]

Evans would be the cherry on top for this class.  If he doesn't sign with aggy between now and tomorrow evening and takes an OV here, we get him IMO.

[Hiphopopotamos 20850]

 

[Elmer_Fudd 22022]

Think is saw that Butler is an EE and will make a decision tomorrow.

[Vermin 3040]

The portal is mostly fool’s gold for lineman. The size required makes identifying them in high school really simple so there aren’t too many difference makers on G5 rosters to pluck.

[JBJ 3598]

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Because I was asking a backwards-looking question, not a prediction of the future.  It's OK, we don't need to belabor the point, I got my answer -- Texas hasn't really gotten NIL rolling yet, at least to the degree people expect.

I certainly don't have any reason to question this class.  In his press conference Sark himself said he doesn't pay attention to rankings when evaluating players, and I'm glad that's the case.  (Not that our ranking is bad at all, it appears to be stellar.)

I think the correct answer to this is that we are in a transitionary period where we don't fully know who can actually sustain a competitive NIL program or even what the landscape eventually looks like.

There were a bunch of surprise teams who got their NIL together quickly, have hit road bumps, and I doubt will last (WVU, Arkansas, Miami).

I think there have been obvious sleeping giants benefit already (Texas, FSU, USC).

Some teams are pretending to have NIL operational at high level but are still using old methods to attract players (Bama, aggy).

Some teams thought to be net losers in the system have made the transition from old networks quickly even though it might be mostly the same faces in the room (Georgia, Tennessee).

Edited December 21, 2023 by JBJ

[pacman 7248]

Curious if that is actually an optimal recruiting strategy, or an indication which of your staff you believe are the best developers of talent over the long term.

I seem to recall we certainly tried to recruit OL\DL in the portal, but lost out.

Edited December 21, 2023 by pacman

[NoName 16243]

2 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

 

shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit didn't expect to see a Bud Davis tweet show up in the recruiting thread! dude is very good and worth a follow if you like CFB analytics - even if he's a Florida fan.

this thread is worth reading regarding recruit expected value

 

[Teryor 4390]

Every year after ESD I like to go through the percentages the 9.95ers gave through the year to see how the perception of the class shifted along with rising/lowering expectations. Let's use IT's. Obviously we have Evans/McKinley/Foster/Butler pending

Late May

Spoiler

Percentages are back by popular demand! Actually, I don’t know if anyone was asking for them but we’ll give them to you anyway.

Today we’ll take a look to see where Inside Texas’ cadre of recruiting writers believes Texas sits with its top offensive targets. Tomorrow we’ll tackle their defensive counterparts.

Jerrick Gibson, RB, Bradenton (Fla.) IMG Academy 

Eric: 80%. I would not be surprised to learn Tashard Choice has felt like he would land Gibson for over a year now.

Justin: 85%. Choice might be running this recruitment like CJ Baxter. 

Gerry: 75%. Gibson has been to Miami twice this spring. It was Miami that ended up being the real competition for Cedric Baxter Jr. as well. 

Christian Clark, RB, Phoenix (Ariz.) Mountain Pointe 

Eric: 65%. If the official visit goes as well as the unofficial visit earlier in the Spring I’ll bump this up.

Justin: 70%. 

Gerry: 65%. USC, Oregon, and Georgia is the competition. Florida commit Chauncey Bowens scheduling a June 9-11 OV to Georgia is impactful here. 

Micah Hudson, WR, Temple (Texas) Lake Belton 

Eric: 60%. Joey McGuire has replaced Gary Patterson as the biggest in-state Big 12 recruiting thorn in UT’s side, but will it be enough to coax one of the top players in the country to smell Lubbock for the next 3-4 years?

Justin: 55%. Texas Tech is 45%. 

Gerry: 51%. Lee Corso has something to say about this recruitment. 

Bryant Wesco, WR, Midlothian (Texas) 

Eric: 15%. Texas just can’t get traction here. Odd, he’s way up the big board.

Justin: 25%. Playing catch-up to LSU, TCU 

Gerry: 20%. If he sets foot on campus in Austin this summer I’ll revisit. 

Jordan Anderson, WR, Newport Beach (Calif.) Newport Harbor 

Eric: 30%. Not a high percentage but still well worth watching given his fit and ability to play early.

Justin: 35%. If/when he takes his official visit, we’ll know if UT can flip the Pac Duck. 

Gerry: 20%. Can’t think of a better place for a scavenger hunt than Newport Beach. 

Aeryn Hampton, WR, Daingerfield (Texas) 

Eric: 75%. Word is he’s maturing and that has Texas keeping a close eye.

Justin: 80%. 

Gerry: 60%.

Jelani Watkins, WR, Houston (Texas) Klein Forest

Eric: 15%. Too late to the party for Texas.

Justin: 25%.

Gerry: 10%. LSU’s to lose, or not push. Texas A&M is second. Same scenario. 

Freddie Dubose, WR, Schertz (Texas) Smithson Valley

Eric: 20%. I just don’t know if they’re going to push hard enough.

Justin: 40%. All depends where he’s at in the receiver pecking order. 

Gerry: 25%. More than doubles if Texas truly pushes. 

Parker Livingstone, WR, Lucas (Texas) Lovejoy

Eric: 80%. I think they will push hard enough here.

Justin: 75%. 

Gerry: 70%. Texas’ to lose. 

Ryner Swanson, TE, Laguna Beach (Calif.) 

Eric: 40%. The dude clearly likes Texas. If he wasn’t LDS I’d probably have an RPM in for UT, but that’s a major consideration.

Justin: 20%. If Texas can thwart BYU, Oregon, these numbers go up. 

Gerry: 33%. Texas, Oregon, or BYU. 

Jordan Washington, TE, Houston (Texas) Langham Creek 

Eric: 60%. His only other official visit is Utah at this point but he’ll probably take one to A&M. Utah has a good story to sell, but it’s not Texas.

Justin: 65%. 

Gerry: 70%. Texas leads large, but Texas A&M offered last week. 

Brandon Baker, OT, Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei

Eric: 20%.

Justin: 30%. Need to get him back on campus for this to improve. 

Gerry: 35%. If the fall or December timeline remains, Texas will get an OV.

Daniel Calhoun, OL, Roswell (Ga.) Walton

Eric: 40%. Kyle Flood has done well to put Texas ahead of Alabama, but taking out the instate Bulldogs is going to be difficult.

Justin: 25%. Texas is in it, but Georgia might be too tough. 

Gerry: 48%. Georgia vs. Texas here in the final with Alabama and Tennessee fighting hard. 

Michael Uini, OL, Copperas Cove (Texas) 

Eric: 25%.

Justin: 30%. These increase if/when Uini sets an official visit. 

Gerry: 15%. Kyle Flood has never signed an OL that didn’t officially visit. Uini not scheduling a June OV to date with Texas makes this one tough with all the lines in the water. 

Nyier Daniels, OL, Oradell (NJ) Bergen Catholic 

Eric: 60%.

Justin: 45%. Flood loves the Jersey Shore.

Gerry: 60%. Texas leads FSU and Georgia headed into June OV’s. 

Ory Williams, OL, San Marcos (Texas) 

Eric: 45%. We had him on commit watch at one point but LSU is not making this easy. Texas needs an excellent official visit. Is is telling Michael Uini doesn’t have an official visit set up? Maybe so.

Justin: 50%. LSU might be the other 50%. 

Gerry: 35%. LSU leads and Texas A&M is working the Rueben Owens family angle. 

DeAndre Carter, IOL, Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei 

Eric: 30%. They like Texas but enough to bypass USC? I don’t think so.

Justin: 35%

Gerry: 25%. Fall OV may happen, if he doesn’t early verbal to USC. 

Makai Saina, IOL, Arlington (Texas) Martin 

Eric: 55%.

Justin: 55%. 

Gerry: 60%. Mom likes Kyle Flood. Texas, USC or Texas A&M. Father living back in Texas also helps in-state schools.

Daniel Cruz, IOL, Richland (Texas) North Richland Hills 

Eric: 75%. Flood’s effort should be rewarded with a commitment.

Justin: 70%. Texas has set the pace here. 

Gerry: 75%. Texas has been all in longer than anyone else. 

Texas really needs to put together a strong defensive class, particularly up front on the defensive line. The SEC isn’t forgiving for teams who can’t hold their own up front and Texas is set to lose some quality and physically mature defensive linemen over the next two seasons.

With June official visits beginning shortly, let’s take a look at how Inside Texas currently views the percentages for landing the main targets.

Colin Simmons, EDGE, Duncanville (Texas) 

Eric: 60%. Why? Because Texas has to win it and I think the holistic selling point of Texas will carry the day. I do have concerns over LSU, especially given my expectation they’ll win the SEC West.

Justin: 51%. If he waits until December. If Texas wins the Big 12. If the defense keeps improving. Lot is ifs, but doable. 

Gerry: 50%. LSU or Texas, Texas or LSU. LSU is his personal favorite. Texas has made up ground. Georgia and Florida also likely June OV’s. 

Jordan Ross, EDGE, Birmingham (Ala.) Vestavia Hills 

Eric: 15%. Let’s see how his official visit goes.

Justin: 15%. 

Gerry: 20%. He’s leaving the home state, as of today. Tennessee has some strong hooks unless Georgia says you aren’t getting him. Florida all in. 

Zina Umeozulu, EDGE, Allen (Texas) 

Eric: 65%. I think it’s a RRS battle and Texas will make more sense from a scheme and playing opportunity standpoint. Jeff Choate getting more involved helps UT.

Justin: 60%. Texas probably leads, but watch Oklahoma and Texas A&M. USC too. 

Gerry: 60%. Placing percentages on a Umeozulu recruitment is always interesting. 

Dominick McKinley, DL, Lafayette (La.) Acadiana 

Eric: 25%. In talking with his father I didn’t get the feeling he’s an LSU lock, but LSU has a good pitch and is right down the street. They’re also being extremely aggressive. Recruit him through the whistle.

Justin: 15%. LSU until it’s not LSU. 

Gerry: 25%. Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M are all in this more than many think. 

Joseph Jonah-Ajonye, DL, Conroe (Texas) Oak Ridge 

Eric: 25%. If we’re going to see a bounce in this recruitment it’ll happen in the coming weeks. Texas needs an unofficial visit that leads to an official visit.

Justin: 25%. Texas is trying to get any sort of traction here. 

Gerry: 20%. If Texas doesn’t get the mom on campus in June, next man up. Georgia official visit June 23-25 will likely crush Oklahoma fans hopes. 

Nigel Smith, DL, Melissa (Texas) 

Eric: 40%. We’ll see if Texas picks up the slack in this recruitment, and by “Texas” I mean Pete Kwiatkowski. If Texas goes all in I think this recruitment can be won.

Justin: 15%. There’s some stuff to unpack and rearrange here. The longer he’s uncommitted, the better Texas could look. 

Gerry: 25%. But going up slowly. 

Terrence Hibbler, DL, Lexington (Miss.) Holmes County Central 

Eric: 40%. One of my favorite iDL prospects Bo Davis is on. I hope Alabama doesn’t like him as much as I do.

Justin: 50%. I strangely feel good here. 

Gerry: 45%. Alabama or Texas is the thought now. But Mississippi State won’t go quietly. An Alabama push June 2-4 could make this one tough. 

D’antre Robinson, DL, Orlando (Fla.) Jones 

Eric: 40%. Maybe the second most talented iDL target after McKinley. That’ll make getting him out of Florida more difficult. I think the staff is going to dial up the heat.

Justin: 50%. The Horns have to hold off the in-state powers. 

Gerry: 45%. A motivated Texas can win this one.

TJ Lindsey, DL, Bryant (Ark.) 

Eric: 30%. I just talked to him and have no idea where he’s going to end up. There’s a good chance he takes his decision into the season which could help Texas as the coaches gain clarity with others.

Justin: 25%. 

Gerry: 30%. Tough read recruitment. Auburn, Texas A&M, Florida State, and Texas could all win out.

Melvin Hills, DL, Lafayette (La.) Lafayette Christian Academy 

Eric: 30%. I’m just not sure Bo Davis will have the gas pedal to go all in.

Justin: 35%. This goes way up if they push. He wants out of Louisiana. 

Gerry: 45%. Ole Miss is pushing hard. He prefers Texas with the same push. Wanted LSU when the process began, but that’s not likely. 

Alex January, DL, Duncanville (Texas) 

Eric: 85%. This should be easy. Big kid who can move his feet. Take and develop.

Justin: 80%. The only way this isn’t Texas is if January takes his time and other guys want in.

Gerry: 90%. Truly Texas’ to lose. 

Jayden Jackson, DL, Bradenton (Fla.) IMG Academy 

Eric: 50%. Texas made up a lot of ground on his recent visit. Another visit like that could put Texas in the pole position.

Justin: 45%. Ohio State is the team to beat. 

Gerry: 48%. Ohio State and Texas top two beginning June visits. Miami is contending third. 

Isaia Faga, DL, Phenix City (Ala.) Central – Utah commit  

Eric: 30%. Love the kid’s tape but I’m not sure he has the size they’re wanting in the class even if he does de-commit.

Justin: 35%. If he de-commits from Utah, Texas looks great. Big if. 

Gerry: 75% if he de-commits. College coaches have been waiting on that for three months. Family ties are strong with the Utes. 

Justin Williams, LB, Conroe (Texas) Oak Ridge 

Eric: 20%. Play the long game even if he commits elsewhere.

Justin: 25%. If they get him on campus, call me. 

Gerry: 20%. Georgia or Oregon. Everyone else chasing from a few car lengths behind with clunky transmssions.

Tyanthony Smith, LB, Jasper (Texas) 

Eric: 75%. The combination of Choate and the linebacker room recruiting Smith will be enough to get the commitment, imo.

Justin: 65%. Texas has been the consistent program since Day 1. 

Gerry: 66%. Just to have one percentage higher than Wells. 

Montay Weeden, LB, Silver Spring (MD) St. John’s 

Eric: 20%.

Justin: 33%. 

Gerry: 25%. Would have to see a true push here. If that happens, Texas’ to lose. 

Kobe Black, CB, Waco (Texas) Connally

Eric: 75%. Texas is laser focused here and will be able to sell early playing time regardless of how the room appears.

Justin: 70%. He’s been the priority at corner since February. 

Gerry: 75%. Texas’ 5-star to lose. 

Selman Bridges, CB, Temple (Texas) Lake Belton 

Eric: 65%. He seems to profile to Texas and also fits their recruiting template for defensive backs.

Justin: 65%. Texas could really separate here with a fantastic OV. 

Gerry: 60%. So much in defensive back recruiting comes down to Gipson’s decision, and how the numbers could affect others. 

Wardell Mack, CB, Marrero (La.) John Ehret

Eric: 40%. I think Texas is headed for bridesmaid status.

Justin: 20%. 

Gerry: 35%. Texas over Florida to get to the finale vs. LSU. 

Eli Bowen, CB, Denton (Texas) Guyer

Eric: 40%.

Justin: 45%. This is a recruitment we’re watching closely. Moving parts, etc. 

Gerry: 35%. Very good player, but doesn’t fit the ideal size Texas is looking for. We shall see if they truly push in June. 

Corian Gipson, CB/DB, Lancaster (Texas) 

Eric: 40%. I expect Texas to stay on him regardless of what he decides. If he picks Clemson will he truly follow through? I know some would be skeptical of that. Here’s to a great birthday party on his official visit.

Justin: 40%. Clemson gets the other 60%. 

Gerry: 40%. Texas is slipping to the dream school. Big question now is does Gipson follow through on the June official visit schedule. 

Jordon Johnson-Rubell, S, Bradenton (Fla.) IMG Academy 

Eric: 75%. I have an RPM pick in for him. Key was understanding if he’s a priority and he certainly is.

Justin: 75%. Texas has prioritized the Fort Worth native. 

Gerry: 70%. Alabama not being on OV list is key. Texas’ to lose. 

Myles Davis, S, Converse (Texas) Judson 

Eric: 30%. They like him for sure, but they don’t like loading up on safety-only players.

Justin: 40%. Texas A&M and USC look good here as his UT official visit approaches in June. 

Gerry: 33%. See who Texas prioritizes beginning the weekend of June 16. 

Joshua Lair, S, Missouri City (Texas) Fort Bend Marshall 

Eric: 25%.

Justin: 30%. All depends if Texas pushes this summer. 

Gerry: 33%. See above.

Braylon Conley, S, Humble (Texas) Atascocita 

 Eric: 25%. Numbers make this one hard to predict. Texas does like him quite a bit.

Justin: 25%. If Texas pushes, this number increases. 

Gerry: 20%. Texas was by in May. We shall see if Texas tries to push. 

The standout quote I'm pulling for @closetojumping
"Aeryn Hampton, WR, Daingerfield (Texas) 

Eric: 75%. Word is he’s maturing and that has Texas keeping a close eye."

Biggest Misjudgments here: Not thinking Dubose would fit, Micah Hudson's plan wasn't known

July

Spoiler

Terry Bussey, WR/ATH, Timpson (Texas)

Eric: 25%. I think he profiles better to the smaller town plus the Aggies have been on him harder for longer. 

Justin: 30%. Texas A&M seems to have struck the right chord at this stage. 

Gerry: 35%. Texas A&M is the favorite until proven otherwise. 

Micah Hudson, WR, Temple (Texas) Lake Belton 

Eric: 40%. I think he’ll commit to Texas Tech but I’m not certain he signs there. 

Justin: 25%. Texas Tech is the team right now, but let this thing play out over the next five months. 

Gerry: My On3 RPM is on 100% to Texas Tech.

Ryan Wingo, WR, St. Louis (Mo.) St. Louis University 

Eric: 70%. Texas is the clear leader right now. 

Justin: 60%. Texas has put themselves in the mix. Steve Sarkisian and Chris Jackson can make this work. On3 Industry Ranking five-star Mike Matthews picking Tennessee wouldn’t hurt either. 

Gerry: 55%. With this one going until December, as of today, there is a lot left in this recruitment. 

Brandon Baker, OL, Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei

Eric: 45%. I give a slight edge to Oregon as of now.

Justin: 40%. I think Texas has been tremendous to this point, now they just need that Mater Dei-to-Austin pipeline to really start to flow

Gerry: 50%. Texas versus Oregon. The Ducks have gone from being the heavy favorite to in a fight. 

DeAndre Carter, OL, Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei

Eric: 35%. I think he ends up at USC.

Justin: 35%.

Gerry: 40%. Could go above 50% depending on the September 30th official visit results.

Ory Williams, OL, Buda (Texas) San Marcos 

Eric: 30%. Have to get him back on campus. LSU leads from my vantage. 

Justin: 25%. Feels like LSU, looks like LSU. But he’s still uncommitted. If he makes it to Austin… 

Gerry: 33%. Goes up to 50% if he makes the fall official visit.

Blake Ivy, OL, League City (Texas) Clear Springs 

Eric: 30%. 

Justin: 25%. Texas A&M was always going to be near the top, surprised he’s this engaged with Texas. 

Gerry: 40%. Texas A&M is the team to beat. This one would be a mild upset. 

Dominick McKinley, DL, Lafayette (La.) Acadiana

Eric: 45%. We’ll see how motivated Texas is to win this recruitment when it counts. 

Justin: 38%. What Gerry said, plus three. 

Gerry: 35%. Texas will be one of three finalists. This one is a wildcard. Mom likes the academics at Texas, which helps. 

T.J. Lindsey, DL, Bryant (Ark.) IMG Academy

Eric: 45%. This one could have a couple of swings left in it. Auburn is motivated. 

Justin: 35%. This increases if Texas really pushes. The IMG hat trick would be nice. 

Gerry: 45%. Auburn seemingly has more confidence to begin the week. 

D’antre Robinson, DL, Orlando (Texas) Jones 

Eric: 65%. Florida is pushing hard, plus his mom might prefer the closer proximity. Bas of now Texas has the lead. 

Justin: 65%. Texas and Robinson really clicked since that first junior day. Bo Davis might catch a big fish in Florida. 

Gerry: 75%. Still reason to feel good if you are Texas. Florida won’t give up, even if he commits to Texas on July 20. 

Colin Simmons, EDGE, Duncanville (Texas)

Eric: 80%. Visits to LSU and probably A&M loom but Texas leads for THE recruitment it has to win this cycle. 

Justin: 75%. I like Texas.

Gerry: 65%. Still sitting the same. On3 RPM hasn’t changed. 

Zina Umeozulu, EDGE, Allen (Texas)

Eric: 75%. Texas doesn’t have that big of a lead right now but I still think it will be UT when all is said and done. This recruitment could take a while to play out.

Justin: 70%. What Eric said.

Gerry: 75%. As long as the family and Neto are happy with Texas, chances remain good here. 

Danny Okoye, EDGE, Tulsa (Okla.) NOAH Homeschool 

Eric: 45%. Texas feels like they’re right in the thick of it. This recruitment could end quicker than people realize. Tennessee holds the lead but UT is swinging away.  

Justin: 45%. Tennessee got the head start, but Texas has pulled closer in this race. The long game benefits the Horns here. 

Gerry: 40%. Tennessee leads and he almost committed to the Vols in late June, but Texas has some level of confidence as well. 

Corian Gipson, CB/DB, Lancaster (Texas) High

Eric: 80%. Texas versus Clemson with Texas the favorite. Still. 

Justin: 80%. I like Texas over Clemson.

Gerry: 75%. Haven’t changed my On3 RPM. 

Kobe Black, CB, Waco (Texas) Connally

Eric: 75%. I think he’ll take visits to LSU and Alabama before deciding but UT has the lead right now. 

Justin: 70%. Texas has done the best job with Black and his family since early this year. 

Gerry: 70%. Texas still the favorite here. How long this plays out, and if more official visits are made could effect the percentage.

Wardell Mack, CB, Marrero (La.) John Ehret

Eric: 45%. I think Texas has won over the parents but Mack does like Florida. Also, you can’t entirely rule out LSU. 

Justin: 45%. I’m starting to dig Terry Joseph’s recruiting chops in Da Boot. Mack would be a steal. 

Gerry: 50%. Think this one will come down to Texas versus either Florida or LSU. 

Joshua Lair, S, Missouri City (Texas) Fort Bend Marshall 

Eric: 70%. I think he’s probably a take after Texas missed on Myles Davis, but there’s also the chance DB recruiting fills up. 

Justin: 65%. If Texas really wants Lair, they’ll get him. 

Gerry: 70% if Texas pushes for a commitment.

I hadn't remembered how confident we were in Gipson+Lair at this point

August

Spoiler

Despite much of the focus shifting towards football, there’s still plenty of intrigue surrounding recruiting for the remainder of the month and into September when five-star defensive tackle Dominick McKinley is scheduled to announce. 

Given the fact the staff is no stranger to flipping kids, we’ve included a few recruits who are already committed elsewhere.

WR Ryan Wingo

Gerry: 50%. Assuming a decision comes in the next couple of weeks. September 17 unofficial visit for the Wymoning game remains scheduled. Missouri vs Texas today. 

Justin: 50%. Missouri has the other 50% and momentum. 

Eric: 50%. There’s too much unknown on the Missouri side to feel too confident. This one may still go the distance even if he picks Missouri in the coming weeks.

WR Micah Hudson

Gerry: 10%. Tortillas have been sold out in the Lubbock area for months, and are just waiting on the commitment tweet at this point. But…the longer it plays out the worse it gets for Tech fans. 

Justin: 25%. If Hudson makes it to Austin for a game this fall, I’ll up the percentages. 

Eric: 30%. Texas is going to have productive receivers who leave early. That’s both proof of concept and immediate opportunity for whoever wants it.

WR Terry Bussey

Gerry: 15%. Texags.com can probably make a documentary of another East Texas prospect with better results here. But LSU is making a run. 

Justin: 25%. Texas is in the hunt, but Texas A&M and LSU hold the cards. 

Eric: 10%. If he waits until late Fall maybe Texas can make a run.

OT Brandon Baker

Gerry: 50%. Texas will eventually be one of two when it’s family decision time. Will the other be Oregon or Ohio State? Nebraska is throwing every kitchen sink in the Cornhusker state at this one, too. 

Justin: 35%. Texas, Ohio State, and Oregon are the three. A big 2023 could push Baker to Austin. 

Eric: 50%. I have a decent amount of confidence here given who Texas is up against and where he lives.

OL DeAndre Carter

Gerry: 30%. This goes up to at least 50% if he makes the September 30 official visit. Auburn is trying to get him in the class prior to September. 

Justin: 25%. 

Eric: 35%. He lives in Temecula and drives to Santa Ana every day. In SoCal, that’s the equivalent of flying from California to Alabama. Auburn is making the most noise. The family does like Austin. There’s a path for Kyle Flood to consensus build Carter and Baker.

OL Blake Ivy

Gerry: 20%. Texas A&M 51% and LSU 29%. But why hasn’t he committed to Texas A&M yet? He’s a kid who wants to make sure he is making the correct decision. 

Justin: 15%. 

Eric: 15%. I’m surprised he’s uncommitted but Texas isn’t in the top-two.

Edge Danny Okoye

Gerry: 30%. The Oklahoma official visit the first weekend in September is worth watching if mom shows up in Norman. Tennessee also very much in it. Alabama is right there as well. 

Justin: 40%. Texas continues to get close to Okoye, who they’ll host on September 16th vs Wyoming. But Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Alabama have his attention. 

Eric: 30%. I’m not seeing Okoye and Colin Simmons in the same class, especially with the suitors Okoye has.

Edge Zina Umeozulu

Gerry: 60%. Still Texas’ to lose. But Texas A&M and Oklahoma are waiting patiently. 

Justin: 55%. Texas versus the field. 

Eric: 50%. He doesn’t seem all that close to making a decision.

Edge Solomon Williams

Gerry: 30%. With Colin Simmons in the fold, makes it tougher on the surface. Alabama wants him. Oregon and Texas A&M in it for sure. If a fall OV is scheduled, this % will go up. 

Justin: 45%. 

Eric: 20%. This percentage is mainly based on how open he is at this point. Texas needs a Jack in the class. If they miss on Okoye, they could get very aggressive with Simmons.

Edge Jordan Ross

Gerry: Just haven’t heard enough on Texas and Ross to say it could happen.

Justin: 35%. 

Eric: 30%. I wouldn’t be surprised if he visits Texas again. Tennessee has been the most consistent it seems. There’s still uncertainty at Edge so we know they’ll keep pushing guys to visit. That said, they need a player with more of a Jack projection and that’s not Ross.

DL Dominick McKinley

Gerry: 46%. Oklahoma is at 39% and Ohio State 15%. 

Justin: 65%. Texas has low key been tremendous in a recruitment scheduled to end September 1st. 

Eric: 55%. Texas and OU both *need* McKinley. He’s a tough kid to get a read on as far as culture fit. I could see him liking Todd Bates. I’m also not sure just how much academics matter beyond a support sense. If he truly wanted to pursue engineering this would be a pretty open and shut case.

CB Kobe Black

Gerry: 85%. The last place team in the SEC West in 2022 is at 15%. 

Justin: 70%. Texas’ lead over Texas A&M, LSU is significant. 

Eric: 89%. I don’t go higher than 90%.

S Joshua Lair

Gerry: 45%. Big fan of the player. So is LSU and Baylor. 

Justin: 55%. It looks more and more like they’ll have room for this head hunter. 

Eric: 50%. I’m curious if he has a place at LSU.

Committed Elsewhere

OT Weston Davis – A&M

Gerry: 25%. Davis is open to making a game day visit. 

Justin: 15%. 

Eric: 15%.

LB Tyanthony Smith – A&M

Gerry: 25%. So much depends on the Texas A&M season – see Ant Hill last year. 

Justin: 25%. If Texas can flip one, I might choose Tyanthony. 

Eric: 35%. Texas has a good relationship in place and he’s familiar with the school. If A&M falters again Texas could flip its second linebacker from the Ags in back to back years.

CB Corian Gipson – Clemson 

Gerry: 25%. Texas will keep the lines of communication open. 

Justin: 10%. 

Eric: 20%. If Texas can land Kobe Black in addition to Colin Simmons, all of a sudden the class has two ace recruiters who will appeal to Gipson.

CB Wardell Mack – Florida 

Gerry: 15%. Mack wants to be at Florida. 

Justin: 25%. 

Eric: 25%. Mack certainly prefers Florida but what is their season going to look like? If he wanted to flip late he wouldn’t face any tension at home.

Fun seeing how McKinley wasn't even discussed at all to Aggy here 

[Mikey4 2476]

5 minutes ago, JBJ said:

I think the correct answer to this is that we are in a transitionary period where we don't fully know who can actually sustain a competitive NIL program or even what the landscape eventually looks like.

Ok, but hypothetically, if a mid-tier program piled up $76 million of its funds and set the whole stash on fire, would that help or hurt the school's NIL and recruiting efforts?

[Duane Moore 5236]

5 minutes ago, NoName said:

shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit didn't expect to see a Bud Davis tweet show up in the recruiting thread! dude is very good and worth a follow if you like CFB analytics - even if he's a Florida fan.

this thread is worth reading regarding recruit expected value

 

Does Bud understand that ATM’s 3 highest quality “commits” didn’t actually sign yesterday and are likely to go elsewhere?

[Jimmy Two Times 727]

2 minutes ago, pacman said:

Curious if that is actually an optimal recruiting strategy, or an indication which of your staff you believe are the best developers of talent over the long term.

Pretty clearly the former. Monitor the quantity/success of WR/DB transfers. Most top teams have a few transfers at those positions that play significant roles and are on draft boards. I'm not sure any of the top ~20 OL draft prospects this year are transfers. The two recent transfers that really stick out on the OL/DL are Olu Olawutimi and Jared Verse - I can think of numerous WRs/DBs off the top of my head. 

[NoName 16243]

2 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

Does Bud understand that ATM’s 3 highest quality “commits” didn’t actually sign yesterday and are likely to go elsewhere?

my guess is it's pulled based on commits, not signees yet, and he will update it again after NSD2 - this is pretty reasonable

[Burt Macklin 18966]

5 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

Does Bud understand that ATM’s 3 highest quality “commits” didn’t actually sign yesterday and are likely to go elsewhere?

No. His comment about Elmo’s transition class only applies if they sign Bussey, McKinley, Evans, and Jernigan.

Narrator: They won’t. 

 

The class will fall off a cliff in his metrics once that happens. 

[JBJ 3598]

2 minutes ago, Jimmy Two Times said:

Pretty clearly the former. Monitor the quantity/success of WR/DB transfers. Most top teams have a few transfers at those positions that play significant roles and are on draft boards. I'm not sure any of the top ~20 OL draft prospects this year are transfers. The two recent transfers that really stick out on the OL/DL are Olu Olawutimi and Jared Verse - I can think of numerous WRs/DBs off the top of my head. 

Yes because I think it's more about the sport itself than coaches or recruits.  Your backup QB hopefully never plays a down, your 3rd WR might not get many targets, but your 3rd best OT might still be the starting at guard or center.

[PTINS 3422]

5 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

Does Bud understand that ATM’s 3 highest quality “commits” didn’t actually sign yesterday and are likely to go elsewhere?

PhD; “Doctor of Philosophy,” which refers to the immense knowledge a student gains when earning the degree.

The practical application of that knowledge after earning said degree is another story.  Our PhD contributor has not made the distinction between committing and signing.

[BurntOrange&White 38999]

19 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

Think is saw that Butler is an EE and will make a decision tomorrow.

Adding him to our class would push us to 3 I do believe in class ranking

[tokamak 6324]

I just watched McKinley's junior and senior tape and it doesn't scream 5-star to me. Great size and frame, but it's just a lot of clips of him making kinda normal DT run stops, not wreaking havoc. College guards will be able to hold those blocks against him for longer.

Compare, for example, to Colin Simmons' tape, which is him running past 6A tackles practically before they get out of their stance.

[Elmer_Fudd 22022]

4 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I just watched McKinley's junior and senior tape and it doesn't scream 5-star to me. Great size and frame, but it's just a lot of clips of him making kinda normal DT run stops, not wreaking havoc. College guards will be able to hold those blocks against him for longer.

 

Yep.  Now go watch Alex January's hudl and the guy we just got in the 25' class, Brandon Brown and see the difference.

[pacman 7248]

This little detail (billboards), which I think is a new wrinkle, seems to have been a big hit.