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[Surly Official] Year One expectations for Steve Sarkisian

immamac

By immamac
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Mr. Drummond

Mr. Drummond 2183

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, dcar00 said:

Arkansas has a decent staff but Sark needs to pound ULL and beat Ark with this roster and with the portal he can improve his roster if he is the witch everyone says he is.

ULL is better than Ark.  

 

We will know early if he is the right guy or not.    The only acceptable losses next year are to ousux.

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Hornlover

Hornlover 8824

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Mr. Drummond said:

ULL is better than Ark.  

 

We will know early if he is the right guy or not.    The only acceptable losses next year are to ousux.

Fuck that shit. There are no acceptable losses.

I expect no less than:

ULL - Win by 25+

ARK - Win  by 20+

Rice - Win by 40+

Baylor - Win by 10+

ISU - Win by 10+

TCU - Win by 7+

KU - Win by 25+ (just like the basketball team)

KSU - Win by 20+

OU - Win

OSU - Win

Tech - Win by 10+

WVU - Win by 15+

 

OU and OSU should be good next year with Rattler and Sanders. The rest of the schedule should all by winnable, and we should win most of those games by double digits.

Show me a loss.

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dcar00

dcar00 14036

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Mr. Drummond said:

ULL is better than Ark.  

 

We will know early if he is the right guy or not.    The only acceptable losses next year are to ousux.

he better get a damn good OL coach and hit the portal hard for some transfer OL.

DC goes without saying.  he misses there and good luck.

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Mr. Drummond

Mr. Drummond 2183

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27 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

he better get a damn good OL coach and hit the portal hard for some transfer OL.

DC goes without saying.  he misses there and good luck.

Of course that is part of if he is the right guy or not - the staff he assemblies.   Again we will know quickly.

And i don't think the OLine is as bad as you think.    But sure if there are upgrades, anywhere on the team, do it.

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troph

troph 24563

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

So he needs to (at least) win the Big 12 his first year with a rookie quarterback to meet expectations. That's some Surly shit right there.

Who the fuck are you? Get with the program. Win baby win. 

Edited by troph
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Js1

Js1 85115

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

So he needs to (at least) win the Big 12 his first year with a rookie quarterback to meet expectations. That's some Surly shit right there.

And beat all those teams by 2-3 TD. 

Welcome to the Texas fan base.  If he only beats ULL by 10, the Fire Sark thread will add 10 pages overnight. 

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SwanderedTalent

SwanderedTalent 5761

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I would like to see the staff hired and the Big 12 schedule laid out in sequence before predicting an exact W-L, and it's probably folly until the spring recruiting period and transfer portal moves are completed anyway, but I figure we'll be about the same: uneven, up-and-down, out of the conference title race early and then much better once the pressure's off. End up in something like the Alamo Bowl. Probably get boat-raced by OU instead of just losing to them close. Nine wins counting the bowl game. Pre-season Top 5 in 2022, leading to bitter disappointment when we go 8-5 that year and lose to Alabama by 38. 

As usual, we'll spend a lot of time bemusedly asking "why are we doing <this> on offense? I thought we'd be doing <that>!"-- I mean, remember how it was Tom Herman's offense, not Tim Beck's, so don't worry, and how Sterlin Gilbert would open things up under Charlie so don't worry, and how Bryan Harsin would modernize Mack's offense so don't worry? I took that to heart, partly. I don't worry about it. I just assume it'll be another disappointment. Not a train wreck necessarily, maybe a fender bender in the HEB parking lot, but overall well short of the rhetorical expectations around here. 

2023 recruiting will be fucking incredible, though, and that will repeat itself for about one more season before it starts to become obvious that Sarkisian isn't the guy and Texas isn't back and then it will start to fall off badly while we're debating who should replace our newest .675 / .700 no-championships coach.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15213

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2 minutes ago, troph said:

Thats for us to embrace as fans. 

The oft used metaphor of "the swamp" applies to Texas in every way.  Entrenched alumni that think they are the ones (in many ways correctly) pulling the strings and muddying the waters for the staff trying to maintain control over the program.  The Cowboys have one Jerry Jones.  We seem to have many.  

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troph

troph 24563

Posted
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Just now, BabaYaga said:

The oft used metaphor of "the swamp" applies to Texas in every way.  Entrenched alumni that think they are the ones (in many ways correctly) pulling the strings and muddying the waters for the staff trying to maintain control over the program.  The Cowboys have one Jerry Jones.  We seem to have many.  

eh, if you and I demand wins, ain't no one around to listen.  I guess if we stop buying crap then maybe.  the BMD are another topic and I couldn't agree more, they *are* a problem.

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utee94

utee94 15746

Posted
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

My point exactly.  So much of a problem I think they are making hires much more difficult.  

No doubt, but this isn't unique to Texas.  Every major program has plenty of BMDs that want to be in on the action.  It's a contributing factor to our problems, but acting as if it's the sole reason, or even the primary reason, is just making excuses.

For decades the university's academic side was desperate to be a "public ivy" and was terrified of what having a highly successful football program would do the school's image.  Mack Brown wasn't chosen by DeLoss or the university administration, he was chosen by the BMDs that overruled the university, because they were tired of shitty milquetoast hires like David McWilliams and John Mackovic.

 

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utee94

utee94 15746

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

He was hired by DKR himself based upon his "suggestion" that he get the nod.  DeLoss wanted that turd from CO

Right.  The BMDs backed DKR.  DeLoss wanted Barnett.  Thank god the power coalition that was NOT directly under the command of the university's AD, successfully implemented that particular selection.

 

 

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satyanash

satyanash 14281

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Posted

(Ian Boyd) Inside the gameplan: Texas and Sarkisian find their way back to 2005

Quote

There was a time when the Texas Longhorns were on the cutting edge of blending pro-style schemes with spread formations and tactics. The 2005 and 2009 runs at the National Championship were both powered by offensive systems designed to allow Vince Young and Colt McCoy to dominate games by operating in space.

For the Vince Young Longhorns, their most lethal feature was the combination of dropback passing from the shotgun with Young’s own overpowering athleticism. Even if you had a sound plan for the zone-option run game and could cover up all the routes, Young was still capable of tucking the ball away and running for touchdowns. In the Colt McCoy era, the scramble was still valuable but what really killed opponents was the impossibility of covering Jordan Shipley well enough when he was running routes in space so that McCoy couldn’t find and hit him.

Then McCoy was injured, Alabama beat Texas, and the trauma of losing with Colt combined with the allure of copying the Tide’s approach while recruiting up and coming Texan 5-star running backs Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray seduced Mack Brown. Texas shifted its focus to building a power running game, the program collapsed, and they’ve wandered in the wilderness ever since. Neither Charlie Strong nor Tom Herman aimed for or even understood Texas’ success in the 2000’s and saw the resources of Longhorn and Texas high school football as a set-up for realizing the "power run + defense = championships!" Alabama formula.

Meanwhile over in Alabama, Nick Saban realized this formula couldn’t bring more championships as spread teams with some pro-style dimensions kept defeating his Tide squads. The Tide began to evolve their approach on offense, both in terms of their schemes and tactics as well as their recruiting, culminating in this past season. The 2020 Crimson Tide are poised to win the National Championship by setting up a quarterback to regularly find an uncoverable receiver in space... and Texas just hired their most recent offensive architect to be the head coach.

Steve Sarkisian

Sarkisian was there when Texas was demonstrating the potency of the spread back in 2005. He was on the USC sideline during the Rose Bowl working as the quarterbacks coach. Sark’s own background in football was at BYU, which was the foundation point for the modern passing game in college football. It was at BYU where a young pre-law student named Mike Leach watched the LaVell Edwards and Norm Chow offenses chew up opponents and questioned why more football teams didn’t orient their offenses around the passing game.

Sarkisian was the starting quarterback for the Cougars in the 90s and then followed Chow to USC, coaching Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, John David Booty, and Mark Sanchez in that succession in his first stint. Then he guided Cody Kessler in the short-lived second stint as the head coach. These guys were regularly throwing for 3000+ yards, with Palmer, Leinart, and Kessler all getting close to 4k yard seasons long before such was the norm. He’s long followed a similar formula as his buddy Lane Kiffin, but with a lot less of the HUNH tempo and less of the Art Briles influence Kendal brought to Kiffin at Florida Atlantic a few years back.

But you could absolutely watch Sarkisian’s offenses and come away with the impression you were watching a pro-style Briles. Let’s talk a little RPO.

image.png

This is an Alabama RPO you can see him break down in this link (https://coachesinsider.com/football/alabamas-rpos-with-steve-sarkisian-univ-of-alabama/), which is pretty instructive to the Sarkisian mode of thought regarding run/pass balance in the spread offense. The challenge of RPOs is this, you are essentially giving the defense the power to determine where the football is going. Installing an option-heavy system where the quarterback has multiple options on every play seems like a way to build an unstoppable offense but the real masterminds, like Briles or Sarkisian, will do their homework in the gameplan to ensure the quarterback has a more limited menu of options. That includes frequent options for getting the ball to players like DeVonta Smith in space.

RPOs are primarily about clearing out the box so you can run the ball, at least they were originally. Eventually defenses realized conceding space for gimme passes on the perimeter to speedy receivers was considerably worse than yielding a light box against the run. Nowadays, defenses won’t give away easy throws if they have any choice in the matter and the best ones will often challenge underneath routes, mix up numbers in the box against the run game, and force you to throw the ball against man coverage.

Sark’s RPOs are designed to give the quarterback options against man coverage outside, such as on the diagram up above. You’ll see the Tide throw double glances to the two receiver side or have the single receiver run an out or glance based on the cornerback’s leverage (and probably some gameplanning). What appears to be endless slants thrown by Alabama are effectively “get open!” routes where the receiver breaks after four steps and “runs to daylight” much like a vertical option route in Briles’ “veer and shoot” offense.

But ultimately RPOs have diminishing returns against man coverage, particularly single-high man coverage which can drop a safety down to deny space for some of those “get open” glance routes. The quarterback has a limited window of time to make a decision and throw the ball on a RPO before his offensive line either progresses down the field and incurs a penalty (no ineligible receivers are allowed further than three yards past the line of scrimmage) or else the run blocking fails to protect the quarterback and he takes a hit. If you really want to punish man coverage and aggressive run-stopping defense, you want play-action…

This is designed to look exactly like the Y-iso/glance RPO above with the glance routes coming from the two receiver side rather than the single receiver side, but it’s not. It’s play-action and DeVonta Smith is running a sluggo (slant and go) double move. Obviously, it's effective.

Alabama’s offense is more pro-style in terms of some of the concepts, dropback passing game, and personnel than many a Big 12 team but is ultimately another RPO spread/play-action squad that wants to take the top off the defense throwing deep. Sark regularly uses the stresses their base RPO offense puts on the defense in order to set up kill shots with play-action. In order to make that work, they invest very heavily in the RPO game and have a lot of variations, combinations, and options in order to make their RPO game an every down feature of the offense. Those kill shots are the main feature.

A million ways to run “mills”

“Mills,” or dig-post, along with the slot fade are probably the two most devastating weapons in the modern game. Double move play-action shots like Sarkisian loves or “leak” concepts like Lincoln Riley throws at people are devastating but they’re also harder to execute and rely on extensive set up and good offensive line protection. Everyone in the Big 12 can set up “mills” or slot fades. As it happens, Sarkisian can also set up “mills” and has a lot of ways to do it.

“Mills” is the ultimate way to beat two-high coverages. The inside receiver runs a dig route behind the linebackers and the safety has to pick him up so the quarterback can’t hit him for an easy gain. Then the outside receiver runs behind him on a post route. Defending a post route from a top receiver without inside safety help is extraordinarily difficult for cornerbacks and the consequence of failure is typically a touchdown. The best way to handle “mills” is to bring another safety over so you have three deep defenders over two deep routes. Defenses are wary of giving up shots on slot fades and “mills” to star receivers, so the best gameplanners and play-callers do some work to set them up. For instance…

image.png

Sark sends DeVonta Smith (X) into motion before the snap to the wide side of the field, which will always draw attention from a defense. The more damaging effect though is Georgia beginning the play in a trips coverage and then having to check into their back-up coverage on the fly. The back-up coverage can’t be dialed up and signaled in by the defensive coaches in the moment. It has to be prepared beforehand. Then, Alabama runs a switch, with the outside receiver breaking inside to run the dig and Waddle running a wheel-post outside.

The Dawgs struggle to work out who covers who and they don’t get the “3 over 2” effect by using the opposite side safety, who is instead worrying about the Smith/tight end combination. Jaylen Waddle runs by the confused corner on the post and it’s six points for Alabama.

Alabama has a few ways to run “mills” in order to generate the coveted 1-on-1 outside where a receiver is breaking deep and inside against a cornerback who doesn’t have a post safety to help him. They’re more aggressive and multiple here in many respects than some Big 12 teams that love to attack over the top. It’s truly a more carefully developed and nuanced version of what is commonplace across the Big 12 conference from the better offensive teams. Pro-style Briles.

Sark at Texas

I'm guessing @Scipio Tex really perked up when he heard of Sarkisian’s plan to emphasize recruiting in Texas and the southwest out to California. The reasoning for this focus is pretty easy to deduce. Sarkisian wants to load up on speed at wide receiver and fine-tuned skill at quarterback. Texas has plenty of each, but as Tom Herman and Lincoln Riley have both found, the southwest and California has a considerable amount as well. Much of it is conglomerated for the benefit of big recruiting schools at a few private high schools without much competition for a school of Texas' stature.

Bryce Young was the second blue chip quarterback Sarkisian coached from Mater Dei High School down in Southern California near Anaheim. He’s coached a few blue chip receivers from Texas, Louisiana, and California as well as some famous running backs... which brings us to Bijan Robinson.

Sark is exactly the sort of coach Texas needed to hire in terms of offensive vision. Tom Herman wanted to run the football and control games like he’d done with Urban Meyer at Ohio State or with Greg Ward Jr. and Major Applewhite at Houston. Charlie Strong didn’t really seem to have a vision for the offense other than, “someone please score some points for my defense.” Sarkisian is going to come in planning to use the highly skilled receivers and quarterbacks on campus and within the Texas/Pac-12 recruiting sphere in order to attack the structure of opposing defenses down the field in the passing game.

The upshot of this approach, which is extensive yet measured, will be to clear out space for some steady gains on the ground. It was always going to be important for Texas to install an aggressive approach with RPOs and play-action for 2021 in order to get the most out of their obvious star player, Bijan Robinson.

Defenses will take a glimpse of the 2020 film and quickly decide they have zero interest in giving Bijan any space to work in whatsoever. Consequently, the constraints from RPOs and play-action from the 2021 Longhorns have to be cutting and damaging enough to force opponents to yield some space and leverage in the box. Texas has plenty of speed on the perimeter they can use in this mission and both Casey Thompson and Hudson Card have extensive backgrounds in the RPO game. They don’t have a lot of experience and knowhow from their young quarterbacks or across the offensive line for executing a lot of pro-style dropbacks (which are also abundant in the Sarkisian playbook). Texas needs a gameplanner who can use effective tactics from week to week to force defenses to worry about denying space to Bijan, Jordan Whittington, Jake Smith, Kelvontay Dixon, and Josh Moore all at the same time.

There’s your starting point for Texas in 2021. Later on they can get into more and more of the LSU-style pro-spread schemes Sarkisian had only just begun to break ground in this season in Tuscaloosa. Back in 2005, Sark was there when the future possibilities of putting elite athletes in space via spread formations and run/pass conflicts were made stark on the national stage. Now he’s coming to Texas at just the right time to help the Longhorns find their way back to the pro-spread ranch.

 

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Scooter Monzingo

Scooter Monzingo 820

Posted
Posted

Meh, im not asking for titles in year one.
 

What I am asking for is to not see players standing around during a play. The number of times I have seen one our defensive guys simply standing still while the play was still going on bothered the shit out of me. Fuck that, you’re allowed to keep blocking,  hitting, running, until the official blows the damn whistle.

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NoctambulantBrobdingnagian

NoctambulantBrobdingnagian 530

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Posted
On 1/2/2021 at 6:32 PM, nunna yo bizness said:

Big12 championship and playoff appearance.  I don't give a fuck if you think that's not realistic.  I know what UM would have been able to do with the talent that we saw in the Alamo Bowl and that is on the roster so I won't soften my expectations because our admin had to settle for a coach several steps lower.

higher than 12 steps?

too soon?

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