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China and their ‘Jack Ma Problem’

Chet Steadman

By Chet Steadman
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Chet Steadman

Chet Steadman 940

Posted
Posted (edited)

Well, maybe not a problem any more.  Ma has not been seen in public for more than two months and now, reportedly, he appears to be missing in private as well.  

Ma has been very outspoken about China and their regulations for years but has really amped up the negative pr the past six months or so.  

This would be ballsy even for the CCP.  

Edited by Chet Steadman
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89681

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

This would be ballsy even for the CCP.  

They have a helluva hold on social media, so they could keep it off a lot of the platforms.

On the other hand, friends who are Chinese claim that a lot of Chinese easily bypass the government controls, and talk about all kinds of stuff the government doesn't want them to, even if that stuff doesn't make it out of the country.  I want to believe, and they are Baptists, and they have talked a lot about organizing with other Christians while in China, discussed covid, supply issues, etc. without being caught, but I keep thinking of it like some whacko militia group here in the US, where you have to assume that at least half the members are informants.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13515

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I watched a CNBC segment on this topic this early this morning. They had a live reporter in Beijing that was being cautious to not accuse anyone of taking him. But the reporter made a weird comment that business leaders sometimes are “ disappeared” in China.

This type of problem will do nothing but grow as China expands its power to other countries and the US encourages it.

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1645

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Posted
1 hour ago, gsoda3 said:

this should be getting more attention than it has.  if ma really has been disappeared and there isn't any backlash or outcry we have a bigger problem on our hands than we thought.

Agree.  He's basically a Zuckerberg or Musk in China.

Would you say that Jack has been offed?

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3262

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, shakahorn said:

Agree.  He's basically a Zuckerberg or Musk in China.

Would you say that Jack has been offed?

no, highly doubt he's been murdered.  the MO in these cases is to "re-educate" via torture or blackmail.  he'll reappear, they usually do but singing a different tune. 

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3262

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Dunno about Jack Ma, but if you design a counterfeit of the Alibaba site, is that really wrong?

well tencent's been trying to do that for years.  jack ma's contribution to the chinese economy has been so huge.  along with the success of alibaba, he basically created and formalized main street's system of online payment and figured out a lending system to small and medium businesses that unlocked the potential which still carries china's growth.  he's as responsible for china's resurgence as any person in the world.  

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Horn of Gabriel

Horn of Gabriel 1614

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China is really scary.  Ma isn't the first and won't be the last Chinese citizen to get disappeared.  He's just making the news because he's a billionaire.  So many trends put China and the U.S. at odds in the coming decades:

  • Communism vs. Democracy
  • Human rights abuses of their Uighur minority population
  • Rampant state-sanctioned (and sponsored!) IP theft to prop up Chinese business
  • State regulations requiring IP-transfer and company control from U.S. companies to PRC-controlled entities as a cost-of-doing-business in China
  • Chinese state sponsored hacking into U.S. businesses, government, education, utilities, etc
  • Chinese planting spies in research institutions and universities
  • Chinese law compelling any of their citizens to spy on behalf of the state - which they back up with blackmail and "re-education" of your family if you don't comply
  • Illegal 9-dash line claiming all of the South China Sea as their territory, hundreds of miles beyond internationally recognized borders
  • Militarization of atolls and islands in the SCS
  • Development of hypersonic "carrier killer" missiles
  • Silent development of China's nuclear warhead capabilities
  • China's launching 3 new aircraft carriers in the next few years, including one supposedly nuclear powered flat top, not just a Russian retread
  • "Belt & Road" initiative to tie Asia, Europe, and Africa even more closely to China's economy (and political power)
  • Border skirmishes with U.S. ally India
  • Great Firewall of China and propaganda machine spreading fake news to their billion citizens about the U.S. (e.g. "Corona virus was planted by the U.S. Army in Wuhan" "China did a GREAT job with COVID," etc)
  • Ratio of women:men in China is out of whack because of the (now rescinded, too late) 1-child policy, you'll have a lot of unattached (angry) men
  • China is facing an age-cliff in their population even worse than the U.S., they will have a massive retired age population to support soon
  • Extremism and populism on the rise in the U.S.
  • China positioned as the "bad guy" in the U.S. (which I believe they mostly are)
  • U.S. arms sales and support for Taiwan
  • China's unwavering position that Taiwan is part of China and continued threats of military action - and the quickly developing military capacity to back them up if we don't intervene
  • The U.S. worried about decline in power/not being the sole superpower anymore
  • China wanting to rise up, take it's "rightful place" as a superpower

I do worry about a flashpoint that starts a shooting war that could get out of hand quickly.  On the other hand:

  • Our economies are tied very closely and it would be a MAD disaster if we had a military conflict
  • China is a big holder of our debt, which becomes pretty worthless if they crater our economy themselves

This probably belongs in a China meta-thread but I think the next 10-15 years China will do a bunch of stuff that sits just below the threshold for war.  They'll keep pushing the limit as far as they can and toe that line to see where we push back.  So far, our answer has been basically do whatever you want and we'll yell a bunch and sail some ships near you but that's about it.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13515

Posted
Posted

Hear ya about China's growing global influence and if/how we want to face it. Personally I don't see a hot war with them. They need us as a marketplace and we need them for cheap goods.

As the OP topic, its crazy that a govt can pull individuals, especially the most wealthiest, into custody because they said something "subversive." I believe Ma made a short comment that the China govt needed to be less risk adverse to financial innovation. Then one of the world's wealthiest disappears. If I was a Western company exec, I would be slightly cautious about traveling to China.

For the CCP, get Ma in line and I bet many others will quickly follow.

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52-80

52-80 19161

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

China is really scary.  Ma isn't the first and won't be the last Chinese citizen to get disappeared.  He's just making the news because he's a billionaire.  So many trends put China and the U.S. at odds in the coming decades:

  • Communism vs. Democracy
  • Human rights abuses of their Uighur minority population
  • Rampant state-sanctioned (and sponsored!) IP theft to prop up Chinese business
  • State regulations requiring IP-transfer and company control from U.S. companies to PRC-controlled entities as a cost-of-doing-business in China
  • Chinese state sponsored hacking into U.S. businesses, government, education, utilities, etc
  • Chinese planting spies in research institutions and universities
  • Chinese law compelling any of their citizens to spy on behalf of the state - which they back up with blackmail and "re-education" of your family if you don't comply
  • Illegal 9-dash line claiming all of the South China Sea as their territory, hundreds of miles beyond internationally recognized borders
  • Militarization of atolls and islands in the SCS
  • Development of hypersonic "carrier killer" missiles
  • Silent development of China's nuclear warhead capabilities
  • China's launching 3 new aircraft carriers in the next few years, including one supposedly nuclear powered flat top, not just a Russian retread
  • "Belt & Road" initiative to tie Asia, Europe, and Africa even more closely to China's economy (and political power)
  • Border skirmishes with U.S. ally India
  • Great Firewall of China and propaganda machine spreading fake news to their billion citizens about the U.S. (e.g. "Corona virus was planted by the U.S. Army in Wuhan" "China did a GREAT job with COVID," etc)
  • Ratio of women:men in China is out of whack because of the (now rescinded, too late) 1-child policy, you'll have a lot of unattached (angry) men
  • China is facing an age-cliff in their population even worse than the U.S., they will have a massive retired age population to support soon
  • Extremism and populism on the rise in the U.S.
  • China positioned as the "bad guy" in the U.S. (which I believe they mostly are)
  • U.S. arms sales and support for Taiwan
  • China's unwavering position that Taiwan is part of China and continued threats of military action - and the quickly developing military capacity to back them up if we don't intervene
  • The U.S. worried about decline in power/not being the sole superpower anymore
  • China wanting to rise up, take it's "rightful place" as a superpower

I do worry about a flashpoint that starts a shooting war that could get out of hand quickly.  On the other hand:

  • Our economies are tied very closely and it would be a MAD disaster if we had a military conflict
  • China is a big holder of our debt, which becomes pretty worthless if they crater our economy themselves

This probably belongs in a China meta-thread but I think the next 10-15 years China will do a bunch of stuff that sits just below the threshold for war.  They'll keep pushing the limit as far as they can and toe that line to see where we push back.  So far, our answer has been basically do whatever you want and we'll yell a bunch and sail some ships near you but that's about it.

Yeah, but how about that orange cashew chicken tho?

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89681

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2 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

I do worry about a flashpoint that starts a shooting war that could get out of hand quickly.  On the other hand:

  • Our economies are tied very closely and it would be a MAD disaster if we had a military conflict
  • China is a big holder of our debt, which becomes pretty worthless if they crater our economy themselves

This probably belongs in a China meta-thread but I think the next 10-15 years China will do a bunch of stuff that sits just below the threshold for war.  They'll keep pushing the limit as far as they can and toe that line to see where we push back.  So far, our answer has been basically do whatever you want and we'll yell a bunch and sail some ships near you but that's about it.

Here's the thing:  Any kind of war, shooting, or a truly full-blown trade war, between the US and China, would crash China's economy, and put tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, out of work and in the streets.

China does not need tens of millions/hundreds of millions of angry Chinese in the streets without jobs and with nothing to do.

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ztejas

ztejas 43455

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Posted
11 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

this should be getting more attention than it has.  if ma really has been disappeared and there isn't any backlash or outcry we have a bigger problem on our hands than we thought.

Yeah. Shocked to see only 23 replies here. This is a huge deal. Ma should be by all objective accounts one of the most powerful people in the world - which begs the question how powerful is China's government?

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31487

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Yeah. Shocked to see only 23 replies here. This is a huge deal. Ma should be by all objective accounts one of the most powerful people in the world - which begs the question how powerful is China's government?

I just didn't see the thread.

It's all-powerful. Even high party members can't escape it if they run afoul of it.

You're a younger type, so your exposure may be mostly through the history books.  But the excesses of Stalin and Mao in Soviet/Chinese communism are more the norm than the exception.

Guys like Ma exist at the sufference of the government and the party.  It is really quite the opposite of here.  Two poles on the same axis.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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ztejas

ztejas 43455

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Posted
7 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I just didn't see the thread.

It's all-powerful. Even high party members can't escape it if they run afoul of it.

You're a younger type, so your exposure may be mostly through the history books.  But the excesses of Stalin and Mao in Soviet/Chinese communism are more the norm than the exception.

Guys like Ma exist at the sufference of the government and the party.  It is really quite the opposite of here.  Two poles on the same axis.

I think it's a little bit different in the age of information - which is kind of why I'm asking the question. To "dissapear" someone like that with how interconnected everyone is is kind of alarming - especially with the resources that you would assume are at someone of Ma's stature's disposal - but I suppose the world isn't fully globalized yet and he is still bound by  political boundaries.

On top of that - the things that the CCP is likely able to do from behind a computer screen are probably just as alarming. It's not like Stalin's era where you just sent the Politburo to someone's door and bashed them over the head and the West never even heard about it.

What a time to be alive.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31487

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22 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I think it's a little bit different in the age of information - which is kind of why I'm asking the question. To "dissapear" someone like that with how interconnected everyone is is kind of alarming - especially with the resources that you would assume are at someone of Ma's stature's disposal - but I suppose the world isn't fully globalized yet and he is still bound by  political boundaries.

On top of that - the things that the CCP is likely able to do from behind a computer screen are probably just as alarming. It's not like Stalin's era where you just sent the Politburo to someone's door and bashed them over the head and the West never even heard about it.

What a time to be alive.

Well, China has done a pretty good job of creating an illusion of a free-ish society, but it's mostly an illusion.  The "freedom" extends only as far as the CCP permits, and as it serves the interest of the CCP.

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Horn of Gabriel

Horn of Gabriel 1614

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1 hour ago, ztejas said:

I think it's a little bit different in the age of information - which is kind of why I'm asking the question. To "dissapear" someone like that with how interconnected everyone is is kind of alarming - especially with the resources that you would assume are at someone of Ma's stature's disposal - but I suppose the world isn't fully globalized yet and he is still bound by  political boundaries.

On top of that - the things that the CCP is likely able to do from behind a computer screen are probably just as alarming. It's not like Stalin's era where you just sent the Politburo to someone's door and bashed them over the head and the West never even heard about it.

What a time to be alive.

Once you're in China, you're under surveillance.  If you're a nobody, it's mostly passive and AI driven, with their Great Firewall and now "social credit scoring" system.  If you're someone like Jack Ma, and especially someone who has shown tendencies to speak out or becoming "bigger than the PRC," you better believe he's under 24 hour watch.  The PRC apparently told him "Yeah, you're not leaving China" a few months ago, and they can freeze his assets, his passport, detain his family, whatever they want to keep him in line.  His resources are an illusion and apparently the PRC has a whole division related to tracking the 1%ers in China, to make sure that they and their families are never out of the country at the same time (no leverage if they all defect simultaneously), that they aren't moving big liquid assets out of China and the reach of the PRC, etc.  I wonder if in the next decade we'll start seeing Chinese 1%ers walk away from their gilded cage in China to the West?

I remember when I was making trips to China 10 years ago our IT staff was paranoid about security and they issued special locked-down China-only laptops for us, you can't take your regular work laptop with you.  You were supposed to keep it in your possession always.  They would weigh the laptop before and after on a digital scale to see if anything had been added to it.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15299

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Posted
16 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

Chinese planting spies in research institutions and universities

It's so much more than this.  We are at war with China.  A data war.  An espionage war.  There is little doubt more than just a handful of US politicians have been compromised.  Chinese campaign that U.S. officials say also includes cyberattacks against U.S. government databases and companies, stealing trade secrets from the private sector, using venture-capital investment to acquire sensitive technology, and targeting our highest officials and researchers

Quote

China is “one of the leading collectors of bulk personal data around the globe, using both illegal and legal means,” William Evanina, the United States’ top counterintelligence official, told Foreign Policy. “Just through its cyberattacks alone, the PRC has vacuumed up the personal data of much of the American population, including data on our health, finances, travel and other sensitive information.”

Back to the point about researchers, more than a 1,000 high level Chinese grad students have returned to the mother ship after our spying probe intensified on Chinese foreign assets.  

Spying probe intensified

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3262

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10 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, China has done a pretty good job of creating an illusion of a free-ish society, but it's mostly an illusion.  The "freedom" extends only as far as the CCP permits, and as it serves the interest of the CCP.

FIND ALL "CCP", REPLACE "XI JINPING"

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15299

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The big difference being there is not "Private sector" in China, despite what they say.  Every company has ties to the government and CCP.   Nor do they rotate politicians.  The big man is in office for life.  They are playing the long game. 

There is a clear reason why NO government agency of employee is allowed to own or operate a Hauwei phone (which are banned in many EU nations).  

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15299

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9 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

I remember when I was making trips to China 10 years ago our IT staff was paranoid about security and they issued special locked-down China-only laptops for us, you can't take your regular work laptop with you.  You were supposed to keep it in your possession always.  They would weigh the laptop before and after on a digital scale to see if anything had been added to it.

Same.  It's scary how quickly they can collapse every aspect of your life.  It's Orwellian.  Phones we had were true phones.  Calls only.  No internet, pictures, etc.  I knew I was addicted to my phone when I just stared at the black/white screen like a zombie when bored.

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DonkeyCigars

DonkeyCigars 143

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He’s definitely being iced somewhere in a penalty box by CCP. He spoke out aggressively against CCP and then shortly after they brought him in for a chat, one of the most—if not the most—highly anticipated IPO’s of 2020 with his Ant Group was cancelled, and he hasn’t been heard of since just confirms it.

I said it before when commenting how China sucks for their disgusting wet markets, but we let them get powerful and now we can’t do anything about it. They are an equal in most ways, which sucks.

Edited by DonkeyCigars
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13515

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My biggest worry about China is their influence over American businesses. An American CEO with a strong manufacturing presence in China or relies on China for sales, cannot be overly critical about China. You could argue that any China criticism that leads to financial problems is the CEO not meeting his/her fiduciary responsibility.  Eventually this inability to criticize could transition to requiring support of China behavior.  "Elon - you're not going to vocally support our policies, your China plant(s) are now shut down and you cannot sell here."

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15299

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

My biggest worry about China is their influence over American businesses. An American CEO with a strong manufacturing presence in China or relies on China for sales, cannot be overly critical about China. You could argue that any China criticism that leads to financial problems is the CEO not meeting his/her fiduciary responsibility.  Eventually this inability to criticize could transition to requiring support of China behavior.  "Elon - you're not going to vocally support our policies, your China plant(s) are now shut down and you cannot sell here."

NBA says hi!

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